Economy

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The vice-presidential nominee favors economic policies that help advance a socially conservative vision of American society — and that sometimes clash with Trump’s own plans.Senator JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, is a pioneer in what friends and critics alike call a new form of Republican economic thinking. It’s a vision to steer the economy toward advancing socially conservative goals, even when those policies defy conservative orthodoxy about government intervention in private markets.Those who know him well say Mr. Vance’s economic views have evolved to match his deepening commitment to social conservative causes, along with his growing anger at the role large companies play in shaping American society and politics.Mr. Vance has built his brief political career on that new brand of economic populism.He has championed efforts to reward families for having children, with tax breaks that some Republican economists say discourage people from working. He has also pushed to disempower large businesses, particularly tech companies that Mr. Vance and his allies say have used their market power to silence conservatives and hurt workers and children, through support for aggressive antitrust enforcement and even some corporate tax increases.“He’s a social conservative first,” said Michael R. Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute in Washington who has known Mr. Vance and discussed policy with him for years, well before he decided to enter politics.“The economic policy is in service of this broader social vision, where you don’t have to go to college to earn a middle-class wage,” Mr. Strain said. “Where your kids are safe from the tech companies. And where these big businesses, run by elites, are not a threat to local companies.”Since taking office in 2023, Mr. Vance has supported raising the minimum wage for people authorized to work in the United States, cast doubt on the virtues of corporate tax cuts and privately expressed admiration for some of the economic stances of Senator Elizabeth Warren, a liberal Democrat from Massachusetts, whom he has joined to push legislation cracking down on big banks. He has also called Lina Khan, the Federal Trade Commission chair whose aggressive antitrust agenda has angered business groups and many Republicans, one of the few Biden administration officials who is doing a “pretty good job.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

(Reuters) -U.S. central bankers may be having second thoughts about their decision earlier this week to hold borrowing costs steady, after a government report on Friday showed the job market slowed sharply last month.Employers added just 114,000 jobs in July, the U.S. Labor Department reported, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, from 4.1% in June, marking an unexpected deterioration in a labor market that had held up surprisingly well during the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hike campaign in 2022 and 2023.On Wednesday, when U.S. central bankers opted to keep the central bank’s policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he believed the labor market was in a process of “ongoing, gradual normalization” that allows policymakers to wait a little longer to be sure inflation is beaten before cutting rates.”If Powell knew then what he knows now, he probably would have cut rates,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. “By keeping rates on hold while inflation fell, they’ve applied too much pressure on the brakes.”The data prompted traders to pile into bets that the Fed will deliver a half-percentage-point rate cut at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, and drive borrowing costs down further from there, with the policy rate expected to end 2024 in the 4.00%-4.25% range.Analysts at many Wall Street banks tore up their forecasts and wrote new ones. Goldman Sachs, for example, now sees a steady every-meeting series of Fed rate cuts and Citi called for half-percentage-point cuts in both September and December. JP Morgan said there was a strong case for a cut even before the Fed’s next meeting.”I would not like to see material further cooling in the labor market,” Powell told reporters on Wednesday. “If we see something that looks like a more significant downturn, that would be something that we would … have the intention of responding to.”Before the release of Friday’s employment report, rate futures had been priced for quarter-percentage-point rate cuts starting in September.”This week’s Fed inaction was a mistake; the case for 50 basis points in September is strong,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote. “July’s poor employment report leaves the Fed looking woefully behind the curve.”Speaking after the jobs data was released, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the central bank should not overreact to a single month of data, but also repeated his warning that leaving the policy rate where it is even as inflation falls means making an already restrictive policy even more so.”Our absolute goal now is we want to settle at something like full employment, not blow through normal and deteriorate,” he told Bloomberg TV.SAHM RULEAnalysts noted that some of the underlying data was not as weak as the headline numbers suggested. Workforce growth was substantial, with the labor force participation rate ticking up to 62.7% from 62.6%, and participation among prime-age workers hitting 84%, its highest level in more than 20 years.And while the Bureau of Labor Statistics said there was no impact on the data from Hurricane Beryl, many were skeptical, noting that the number of people who reported they were unable to work due to weather rose to a July record of 436,000.That, along with the fact that fewer businesses than usual responded to the monthly jobs survey, raises the likelihood that some of the weakness will be revised away in future reports, analysts said.The rise in the jobless rate last month triggered the so-called Sahm rule, a historically accurate early indicator of recession that says such a downturn is underway when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises half a percentage point above its low from the previous 12 months.Claudia Sahm, an economist who worked at the Fed, has cautioned against taking too much of a signal from her rule, given the labor market disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Powell this week called it a “statistical regularity” that did not mean a recession “must happen.”Even so, the increase has ignited concern that the Fed may have waited too long to cut rates, and will need to play catch-up with large cuts in borrowing costs to cushion the economy.In June, U.S. central bank policymakers in their quarterly projections anticipated only one cut this year, and saw the unemployment rate ending the year at 4%.With the jobless rate now well above that, “the soft landing in the U.S. labor market is in danger,” wrote Nick Bunker, director of North American economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, referring to a scenario in which inflation is tamed without a painful recession or sharp rise in unemployment.Powell on Wednesday said policymakers were not currently considering a half-percentage-point cut in September.”What we think we’re seeing is a normalizing labor market and we’re watching carefully to see if it turns out to be more,” he said, adding that the Fed was “well-positioned to respond” if it started seeing signs that there was something more going on. 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The unemployment rate for Asian Americans decreased to 3.7% from 4.1% in July, bucking the overall trend.
Black women also saw their jobless rate edge down to 5.5% from 5.7%.
Even as the overall unemployment rate rose in July, the labor market was still strong for workers ages 25 to 54, according to economist Elise Gould.

A sign for a health-care career fair at Cape Fear Community College in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Feb. 28, 2023.
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The unemployment rate fell for Asian Americans from June to July, bucking a broader trend, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The unemployment rate among Asian Americans dipped to 3.7% in July from 4.1% a month earlier. The result went against the overall unemployment rate, which rose to 4.3% last month from 4.1% in June.

Meanwhile, the jobless rate for white Americans rose to 3.8% in July, up from 3.5% a month earlier. For Hispanic Americans, this number climbed to 5.3% last month, compared to the rate of 4.9% in June. The jobless rate held steady at 6.3% for Black workers.
When taking gender into account, the unemployment rate declined for Black women, who saw their jobless rate tick down to 5.5% in July, compared to 5.7% a month earlier. For Black men, this number jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 6.1% in June.
July’s jobless rates rose to 3.5% from 3.2% for white men, while increasing to 3.4% last month from 3.1% for white women. The rate similarly increased to 4.4% last month from 4.2% for Hispanic males, and it jumped to 5.4% in July from 4.5% for Hispanic female workers.
Jobless rates for Asian workers based on gender were not readily available.

But Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, stressed that these numbers include a lot of volatility — especially for the smaller population groups — and cautioned against reading too much into the trends.

In fact, Gould emphasized that while the overall unemployment rate rose last month, the labor market was still strong for the prime-age employment group, or for workers ages 25 to 54. The employment rate for this age cohort was 80.9% in July, the economist said. Gould added that female workers in this group continue to recover.
“More people came back into the labor force. Many of them did not find jobs, and that’s why the unemployment rate ticked up,” Gould told CNBC in an interview. “But when you look at the flip side, things are definitely stronger.”
Last month, the overall labor force participation rate increased to 62.7% in July, up from 62.6% in the prior month. This measure represents the percentage of the population that is either currently employed or actively seeking employment.

For white workers, the labor force participation rate ticked higher to 62.3% last month, compared to June’s rate of 62.2%. The rate rose to 63.2% in July, versus the previous month’s level of 62.7% for Black Americans.
For Hispanic workers, the labor force participation rate came in at 67.3% in July, slightly lower than the prior month’s reading of 67.5%. Meanwhile, this rate among Asians was 65.7% last month, versus 65.9% in June.
— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, which could heighten fears that the labor market is deteriorating and potentially making the economy vulnerable to a recession.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 jobs last month after rising by a downwardly revised 179,000 in June, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing by 175,000 jobs after a previously reported 206,000 gain in June. Estimates ranged from 70,000 to 225,000. Hurricane Beryl, which knocked out power in Texas and slammed parts of Louisiana during the payrolls survey week, likely contributed to the below-expectations payrolls gain.The labor market is slowing, driven by low hiring, rather than layoffs, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 dampen demand. Government data this week showed hires dropped to a four-year low in June.Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% last month after climbing 0.3% in June. In the 12 months through July, wages increased 3.6%. That was the smallest year-on-year gain since May 2021 and followed a 3.8% advance in June. Though wage growth remains above the 3%-3.5% range seen as consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target, it extended the run of inflation-friendly data. The employment report sealed the case for a September rate cut from the U.S. central bank. The rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% in June marked the fourth straight monthly increase. That could escalate fears over the durability of the economic expansion. More