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    What to Watch as the Fed Meets on Wednesday

    The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged but could set up for a cut later this year.Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave their key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, keeping it at the two-decade high of 5.3 percent for a 12th straight month in a bid to slow economic growth and crush inflation.But investors will be most focused on what comes next for borrowing costs. Economists and traders widely expect Fed officials to cut their policy rate at their next meeting, in September. Wall Street will closely watch for any hints about the future in both the Fed’s statement at 2 p.m. and a subsequent news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the central bank.While few economists expect an explicit signal on when a rate reduction is coming — the Fed has been trying to keep its options open — many think that central bankers will at least leave the door open to a cut at the next meeting, which will wrap up on Sept. 18. And Mr. Powell is sure to face questions about how officials are thinking about the potential for moves after that. Here’s what to look out for.Watch the Fed’s statement for changes.The Fed’s statement, a slowly changing document that officials release after each two-day meeting, currently states that Fed policymakers expect to hold rates steady until they have “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” down.Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, wrote in his preview note that the statement could be headed for a small but meaningful tweak: Officials could adjust “greater confidence” to read “further confidence,” or some similar rewording. That would signal that policymakers were becoming more comfortable with the inflation backdrop.There would be a reason for that growing confidence. After proving surprisingly stubborn early in 2024, inflation is cooling again. The latest report showed that the Fed’s preferred index picked up just 2.5 percent over the year through June — still quicker than the central bank’s 2 percent target, but much slower than that measure’s recent peak in 2022, which was above 7 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed decision, BOJ, Microsoft, Meta Platforms – what’s moving markets

    The Bank of Japan started the week’s central bank parade earlier Wednesday, raising interest rates and signaling its resolve to unwind a decade of massive monetary stimulus.The Japanese central bank hiked its overnight call rate target to 0.25% from 0-0.1% by a 7-2 vote and laid out a detailed quantitative tightening plan that will reduce monthly bond buying in several stages to around Y3 trillion, half the current rough target, by early 2026.Wednesday’s rate hike comes amid some improvements in Japanese inflation over the past two months, especially as consumer spending improved on stronger wages. This trend furthered the central bank’s forecast that inflation will climb to its 2% annual target sustainably, and that monetary conditions will have to tighten accordingly.In the U.S., by contrast, a benign June inflation report has investors looking for the policymakers to lay the groundwork for a September rate cut.The Federal Reserve concludes its July meeting later Wednesday, and is widely expected to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, as it has done since last July.Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing in September, with a small chance of a reduction of 50 basis points, and have 66 basis points of easing priced in by Christmas.U.S. stock futures rose Wednesday as investors awaited the conclusion of the latest Federal Reserve meeting while parsing through a series of important earnings reports. By 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dow futures contract was 77 points, or 0.2%, higher, S&P 500 futures climbed 42 points, or 0.8%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 252 points, or 1.3%.The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting later in the session, and investors will be looking for clues over the timing and number of rate cuts to expect this year.There are more earnings to digest Wednesday, including from Facebook-parent Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) [see below] after the close. Other names set to release numbers include Boeing (NYSE:BA) before the bell, as well as Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) and Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) later on.This is the final session of July, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on course to end the month lower, with the latter seen losing over 3%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, is on track to finish the month higher by more than 4%, as the market rotated out of the major tech stocks into companies that are smaller and more cyclically oriented.Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) disappointed with its fourth-quarter update after the close Tuesday, as the tech giant indicated it would spend more money on artificial intelligence infrastructure, even as growth slowed in its cloud business.This offered another sign that the payoff from hefty investments in the technology may take longer than Wall Street had hoped.Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure, which is widely viewed as a barometer for AI demand, grew 29%, marking a slowdown from 31% growth seen in the previous quarter. Additionally, AI-related growth accounted for about 8% of Azure’s total growth, up from 7% in the third quarter. However, this came as Microsoft continued to ramp up investments, with capital spending jumping to $19 billion in the quarter, up from $14 billion in the prior quarter, and nearly double the $10.7 billion seen a year ago. It wasn’t all bad news for the sector though, as Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) increased its 2024 forecast for artificial intelligence chip sales by $500 million and said supplies would remain tight through 2025.Meta Platforms is the latest of the mega-cap tech giants to release quarterly results this week, with the numbers due after the close Wednesday.Meta, which owns and operates Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and WhatsApp, among other products and services, is expected to report a 20% rise in quarterly revenue, helped by strong ad sales driven by the Olympics and elections in several countries.However, like fellow tech giants Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft, investors will want to see if the billions it is spending on tech infrastructure to support AI development is starting to yield returns. “We remain positive on Meta and think Reels, Messaging and AI-driven ad improvements are still early, and could lead to positive product surprises and revenue upside,” analysts at BofA Securities said.”With political spend, and potential TikTok ban in 1Q’25, Meta could also see an ad spend benefit in 2H’24.”Crude prices soared Wednesday after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran ratcheted up tensions in the Middle East, raising the prospects of a wider conflict hitting supplies.By 04:10 ET, the U.S. crude futures (WTI) climbed 1.8% to $76.08 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 1.7% to $79.38 a barrel.Multiple media reports said that Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli strike, and could mean a potential escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, which stretched into a ninth month in July. It could also result in a resurgence in tensions between Iran and Israel, after a series of missile strikes between the two earlier this year, and furthered fears of an all-out war in the Middle East, especially after Israel carried out strikes against Lebanon-based, Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah on Tuesday.This news has overshadowed data from the American Petroleum Institute showing on Tuesday that U.S. inventories saw a draw of nearly 4.5 million barrels last week. The reading marked a fifth straight week of draws in U.S. inventories, as fuel demand remained underpinned by the travel-heavy summer season. 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    World Bank approves $1.5 billion in financing for Ethiopia

    Africa’s second-most populous country secured a four-year, $3.4 billion programme from the International Monetary Fund on Monday, hours after its central bank floated its birr currency, paving the way for its debt overhaul to move forward. The World Bank will provide a grant of $1 billion and another $500 million in a low interest credit line, part of the first ever direct budgetary support facility provided to Ethiopia, the global lender said.”This policy operation supports home-grown reforms that will ultimately help the country transition to a more inclusive economy that allows the private sector to contribute more strongly to growth,” the World Bank said.    The bank plans to “provide around $6 billion in new commitments over the next three fiscal years and support economic reforms through fast-disbursing budget support,” it said. The funding is part of a $10.7 billion financing package by the IMF, World Bank and other creditors, according to Ethiopian officials.The financial support, however, was conditional on the government implementing significant economic reforms, including the liberalisation of the foreign currency market.Ethiopia’s birr was down 3% against the dollar early on Wednesday, trading at 77.13. It was little changed on Tuesday after tumbling 30% on the day it was floated on Monday.Ethiopia sought to restructure its sovereign debt in 2021, under the G20 Common Framework initiative to offer relief to developing nations, but progress was slowed by a civil war in the northern region of Tigray that ended the following year.Ethiopia’s winding debt restructuring mirrors that of Chad and Zambia which completed their debt overhauls under the Common Framework. Ghana, another African country saddled with high debt, is nearing the finish line of its own restructuring under the initiative.Ethiopia’s development partners have welcomed its move to a market-based foreign exchange rate, but some analysts have said the move could drive up inflation and the cost of living, especially for its poorest residents.The country of 126.5 million people also faces a number of other challenges, including the impact of climate change and the post-war reconstruction of Tigray. More

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    China’s factory activity falls for third straight month

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    France’s political impasse threatens a decade of solid economic progress

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Corporate Turkey’s patience in economic reboot wanes

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    China Politburo meeting offers few stimulus cues, focus on implementation- Citi

    The meeting marked some deviation from Chinese authorities’ usual playbook of focusing on infrastructure, with analysts at Citi noting an explicit emphasis on consumption. But while the focus on consumption is a positive development, Citi said that China’s stance towards stimulus had still not extended beyond “generally reactive” measures and incremental easing. Citi also flagged a lack of concrete measures to boost household income and sentiment. The brokerage said that Beijing had provided few details on its plans to support the property market, which has been a key pain point for the Chinese economy in recent years.Citi said that the meeting did not mark any major shift in China’s stance on stimulus, and that market focus was now on how Beijing will implement more supportive measures for  the economy. “Follow-up policy implementation is critically important in the coming months. For the time being, without major policy shifts, investor confidence would likely remain soft,” Citi analysts wrote in a note.Analysts at Morgan Stanley echoed this notion, stating that they remained cautious over China’s plan for stimulus, noting that while last year’s July meeting had also promised more supportive policies, it had yielded only “piecemeal measures in a reactive fashion.” The Politburo is a top decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party, with its July meeting setting the tone for China’s economy in the remainder of 2024. But the meeting offered few actual cues on stimulus measures, coming shortly after the CCP’s third Plenum, which also gave scant details on more planned measures.Sentiment towards China has grown increasingly negative in recent months, sparking a rout in local stocks as Beijing gave few actual cues on stimulus measures, even as the economy grew less than expected in the second quarter.  More