Investing

ETF Strategist

ETF Street
ETF Strategist

The ability to outperform during volatile periods is an oft-touted benefit of actively managed mutual funds and ETFs.
However, just 33% beat their average index fund counterpart from July 2024 through June 2025, Morningstar found.
This was a period when elections, executive orders, tariffs and geopolitical risks provided ample volatility, an analyst said.

Olga Rolenko | Moment | Getty Images

Active funds “struggled mightily” to beat their index fund counterparts over the past year, according to a recent Morningstar report.
That happened even amid market gyrations tied to tariffs and geopolitics — the kind of volatile periods during which active managers typically claim to outperform, said Bryan Armour, director of ETF and passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar.

Just 33% of actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds had higher asset-weighted returns than their average index counterparts from July 2024 through June 2025, after accounting for investment fees, according to a Morningstar report published in August.
That’s a drop of 14 percentage points from the prior year, it found.

Active funds don’t capitalize on ‘roller coaster’

Money managers who use active management pick stocks, bonds and other financial assets that they think will beat the broad market.
By contrast, index funds don’t employ stock-picking; they track the market instead of trying to beat it.
An oft-touted selling point of active managers is stock pickers’ ability to make key trades in volatile periods to beat investors who passively ride the market’s ups and downs.

More from ETF Strategist:

Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

However, data has generally disproven that thesis, Armour told CNBC.
“Elections, executive orders, tariffs, and geopolitical risks made for a roller-coaster ride during the 12 months through June 2025,” he wrote last month. “Conventional wisdom says active managers should better manage those complexities, but performance says otherwise.”
The trend holds over the long term, too.
Just 21% of active strategies survived and beat their index counterparts over the 10 years through June 2025, Morningstar found.

Success varies by sector

Of course, success varies greatly by sector, data shows.
For example, index U.S. large-cap stock funds — such as ones that seek to track the S&P 500 index — almost always beat their actively managed counterparts over the long term, Armour said.
Just 14% of actively managed U.S. large-cap funds have beaten the S&P 500 over the past 10 years, according to SPIVA.

In addition to having low success rates, large-cap active funds can also carry steep penalties for picking a loser, Armour said. In other words, when they underperform their benchmark, that underperformance is relatively large.
Conversely, active managers generally fare better in less liquid areas of the market, like fixed income, real estate, and small-cap and emerging-market stocks, Armour said.
For example, 43% of actively managed high-yield bond mutual funds and ETFs beat their index counterparts in the past 10-year period, according to Morningstar.

Fees are the key

Fees are the key driver of index funds’ success when compared to active funds, Armour said.
Index funds carry a 0.11% average asset-weighted annual fee, while active funds carry a 0.59% fee, according to Morningstar.
Active funds need to have higher relative returns just to overcome that fee differential.
Beyond that, higher fees also eat into investor earnings. For example, an investor with $100,000 who earns 4% per year and pays a 0.25% fund fee would have $208,000 after 20 years, while the same investor paying a 1% fee would have $179,000, or $29,000 less, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Since index funds own all the securities in a broad market index, they are guaranteed to own the relative winners and losers. While active managers may own more of the winners than their index counterparts, they also risk missing out, Armour said.
Many active managers took risk off the table in April when President Donald Trump first announced so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, but the market then proceeded to rebound quickly, Armour said. More

President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” helps older adults who pay federal taxes on Social Security benefits with the addition of a new temporary senior deduction.
Now one senator is proposing a bill that would eliminate those levies on benefits entirely.

A Social Security Administration (SSA) office in Washington, DC, March 26, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” provides relief to certain Social Security beneficiaries who pay taxes on their benefits.
But it doesn’t eliminate those levies entirely.

Now, Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, introduced a bill on Thursday — titled the You Earn It, You Keep it Act — to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits. A House version of the bill was introduced by Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minnesota, in April.
Gallego’s bill would permanently eliminate federal taxes on Social Security benefits.
It would also expand the Social Security payroll tax to apply to annual earnings over $250,000. Currently, the maximum earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes is $176,100 in 2025. Consequently, high earners may only pay into the program for part of the year.
“Despite decades of paying into the system, seniors are still forced to pay taxes on their hard-earned benefits — all while the ultra wealthy barely pay into the system,” Gallego said in a statement.

How Social Security benefits are taxed

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., questions South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to be Homeland Security secretary, during her Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee confirmation hearing in Dirksen building on Friday, January 17, 2025.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

Social Security recipients may owe federal income taxes on their benefits depending on their income.

How much they may owe is based on a formula known as combined income — the sum of adjusted gross income, tax-exempt interest income and half of Social Security benefits.
Up to 50% of benefits may be taxed for individual tax filers with between $25,000 and $34,000 in combined income, or married couples who file jointly with between $32,000 and $44,000.
Up to 85% of benefits may be taxable for individuals with more than $34,000 in combined income or couples with more than $44,000.

How the ‘big beautiful’ tax law helps seniors

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign event at Harrah’s Cherokee Center on August 14, 2024 in Asheville, North Carolina. 
Grant Baldwin | Getty Images

Republicans’ new “big beautiful” law includes a new senior deduction aimed at helping to defray the effects of federal taxes on Social Security benefits.
Adults aged 65 and over may be able to claim an additional deduction of up to $6,000.
Whether beneficiaries will benefit from the change will depend on their income.
The full deduction will be available to individual taxpayers with up to $75,000 in modified adjusted gross income or married couples with up to $150,000. The deduction will gradually phase out for taxpayers with incomes above those thresholds.
The temporary deduction — which will be in effect for tax years 2025 through 2028 — will be available to eligible taxpayers regardless of whether they take the standard deduction or itemize their returns.
Middle-income taxpayers stand to benefit the most from the policy, according to tax experts, since low earners may already be exempt from federal taxes on benefits and higher earners will be above the phaseout thresholds.

How ‘You Earn It, You Keep It’ may affect Social Security

Unlike the temporary senior deduction recently signed into law, Gallego’s You Earn It, You Keep It proposal would eliminate federal taxes on Social Security benefits for all beneficiaries.
To be sure, it remains to be seen whether it may get enough support to become law.
The proposal does have the support of The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group that is petitioning Congress to stop taxing Social Security benefits. Eliminating federal taxes on Social Security benefits is a “commonsense step to ensure older Americans can keep more of what they’ve earned,” Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a statement.
Efforts to change the federal taxation of Social Security benefits come as the program is facing a trust fund shortfall. Benefits may be reduced within the next decade unless Congress enacts changes sooner, according to projections from Social Security’s trustees.
Because the “big beautiful” law did not include any offsets for the reduced revenue from federal taxes on benefits, it would accelerate the depletion dates, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
In contrast, the You Earned It, You Keep It proposal would extend the Social Security trust funds’ ability to pay benefits in full and on time for 24 years, or until 2058, according to Gallego’s office. That matches an analysis of Craig’s House proposal by Social Security’s chief actuary in April. More

Retirement 401(k) account balances bounced back in the second quarter of 2025, hitting a new record, according to Fidelity’s latest report.
The number of 401(k) millionaires also jumped 16% to an all-time high.

Retirement account balances, which fell at the start of the year due to market volatility, bounced back in the second quarter, according to the latest data from Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) savings plans.
The average 401(k) balance jumped 8% from a year earlier to $137,800, a record high, Fidelity found.

The average individual retirement account balance also rose 5% year over year to $131,366.

Number of 401(k), IRA millionaires hit all-time highs

The rebound in account balances helped boost the number of 401(k) millionaires to an all-time high. 
The number of 401(k) accounts with a balance of $1 million or more jumped to 595,000 as of June 30, up 16% from the first quarter, according to Fidelity.
The number of IRA-created millionaires also increased by 16% to a record 501,481.

Positive savings behaviors were key to better outcomes, said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership.

The majority of retirement savers continued to make contributions, even during periods of market turbulence, Fidelity found. The average 401(k) contribution rate, including employer and employee contributions, largely held steady at 14.2%, just shy of Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.
More from Personal Finance:Comparing retirement security modelsHe invented the 4% rule of retirement incomeHow to leverage 0% capital gains taxes under Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’
A great stretch for the major indexes also helped.
U.S. markets came under pressure after the White House first announced country-specific tariffs on April 2, causing some of the worst trading days for the S&P 500 since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, markets then rebounded from those losses. Savers who “stayed the course, continued to contribute at healthy levels and didn’t make significant changes to their allocation, were able to take advantage of the positive market conditions that followed,” said Shamrell.

As of Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 was up about 10% year to date, the Nasdaq had gained more than 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose roughly 6%.
“We have seen a lot of resilience out of the market despite a lot of volatility,” said Tim Maurer, a certified financial planner and the chief advisory officer at SignatureFD, based in Atlanta.
“Markets have a positive rate of return,” said Maurer, who is also a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council. “Any asset class that has a positive rate of return should regularly hit new highs.”
Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube. More

Ground roast coffee prices in the U.S. hit $8.41 per pound in July, up 33% from a year ago.
Coffee prices ebb and flow according to supply and demand, as they do for other commodities.
Extreme weather in major producers like Brazil and Vietnam crimped supply, pushing up prices.

Coffee beans, including those from Brazil, are displayed for sale at Porto Rico Importing Co. coffee seller, in New York City, U.S., July 15, 2025.
Adam Gray | Reuters

Caffeine levels aren’t the only things spiking for coffee drinkers lately.
Prices for coffee have soared, fueled largely by volatile weather that’s reduced crop harvests among major growers like Brazil and Vietnam, according to analysts.

Ground roast coffee prices in the U.S. hit $8.41 per pound in July, a record high and a 33% increase from a year ago, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Global coffee prices are hovering near a 50-year high reached in February.

U.S. prices for all coffee varieties (including roasted and instant coffee) were up 14.5% year-on-year in July — the second-highest annual inflation rate for any CPI category behind eggs, according to the consumer price index.
Price pressures “should be easing off” in the near term, said Danilo Gargiulo, a senior research analyst at Bernstein.
But 50% tariffs that the Trump administration levied on Brazil threaten to put “upward pressure” on coffee prices, according to an August report from the International Coffee Organization.  

‘Precipitation whiplash’ crimps supply

Like all commodities, coffee prices are a function of supply and demand.
Weather volatility is perhaps the “most critical” short-term factor underpinning coffee supply and prices, since coffee cultivation and yield are “highly sensitive to its environment,” according to a Bernstein report published in March.
A severe drought during Brazil’s last summer season “devastated” the harvest, Berstein analysts wrote.

Brazil is the world’s top coffee producer, supplying about 40% of the global volume, they wrote. The U.S., the world’s largest coffee importer, sources the bulk of its supply (32%) from the South American nation, it said.
Vietnam, the world’s No. 2 supplier, was hit by a drought that caused coffee production to fall by 20% in 2024, according to Bernstein.
That was followed by heavy rainstorms that also crimped production, said Mike Hoffmann, professor emeritus at Cornell University and lead author of “Our Changing Menu: Climate Change and the Foods We Love and Need.”
The dynamic — “precipitation whiplash” — reduces crop yield, he said.

“Your standard season isn’t as it should be,” Hoffmann said. “Drought stresses the coffee plants, then you get way too much water, and it affects the quality and quantity of the bean, the berries.”
Further, as coffee prices have risen, companies like Starbucks chose to draw down their existing coffee inventories instead of buying expensive beans on the open market, Gargiulo said.
Inventories came down “significantly below historical levels” in the last few years, Bernstein analysts wrote. While the market can weather a shortfall relatively well when inventories are high, low levels can lead to sharp price spikes if there’s a new demand or supply shock, they wrote.

How prices might impact coffee drinkers

Consumers may also feel higher coffee prices differently depending on whether they shop at the grocery store for coffee to prepare at home or consume it away from home, at restaurants or coffee chains, for example, Gargiulo said.
Coffee prices in the grocery aisle tend to fluctuate more with the commodity cost, meaning they are generally more volatile, he said. Grocers may be quicker to raise store prices as coffee prices rise, and may offer promotions to consumers when coffee prices fall, he said.

But prices for food commodities like coffee generally move in cycles, and improving weather and capital investment to boost productivity signal lower prices are likely ahead, Gargiulo said.
Additionally, the Brazil tariff “impact” may be somewhat limited for consumers who buy from big coffee chains, Gargiulo said.
He estimates Starbucks would have to raise prices by 0.5% or less to recoup the full cost of Brazil tariffs, for example.
More from Personal Finance:Why inflation is retirees’ ‘greatest enemy’Student loan borrowers pausing payments have doubled since 202468 jobs may qualify for Trump’s $25,000 ‘no tax on tips’ deduction
Over the longer term, consumers should brace for higher-than-average prices, analysts said.
Extreme weather that negatively impacts coffee harvests is expected to be more common, and coffee consumption worldwide continues to increase and bolster demand, they said.
“The prices will continue to go up, in my mind,” Hoffmann said.
“Climate change isn’t going away,” he said. “The severity of droughts, flooding, all of that will get worse. It’s not just coffee — it’s the whole food supply.” More

President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” includes a section called “no tax on tips.”
The deduction is worth up to $25,000 for eligible workers with “qualified tips.”
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released a preliminary list of 68 jobs that can claim the tax break.

President Donald Trump arrives to speak on his plan to end tax on tips in Las Vegas, Jan. 25, 2025.
Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

Who qualifies for ‘no tax on tips’ 

The Treasury’s preliminary list outlined 68 occupations that “customarily and regularly received tips” on or before Dec. 31, 2024, which would qualify for the new deduction.
Here are the tipped workers who may qualify for Trump’s “no tax on tips” deduction:
Beverage and food service

Bartenders
Wait staff
Food servers, non-restaurant
Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartender helpers
Chefs and cooks
Food preparation workers
Fast food and counter workers
Dishwashers
Host staff, restaurant, lounge and coffee shop
Bakers

Entertainment and events

Gambling dealers
Gambling change persons and booth cashiers
Gambling cage workers
Gambling and sports book writers and runners
Dancers
Musicians and singers
Disc jockeys, except radio
Entertainers and performers
Digital content creators
Ushers, lobby attendants and ticket takers
Locker room, coatroom, and dressing room attendants

Catherine Falls Commercial | Moment | Getty Images

Hospitality and guest services

Baggage porters and bellhops
Concierges
Hotel, motel and resort desk clerks
Maids and housekeeping cleaners

Home services

Home maintenance and repair workers
Home landscaping and groundskeeping workers
Home electricians
Home plumbers
Home heating and air conditioning mechanics and installers
Home appliance installers and repairers
Home cleaning service workers
Locksmiths 
Roadside assistance workers

Personal services

Personal care and service workers
Private event planners
Private event and portrait photographers
Private event videographers
Event officiants
Pet caretakers
Tutors
Nannies and babysitters

Johnnygreig | E+ | Getty Images

Personal appearance and wellness

Skincare specialists
Massage therapists
Barbers, hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists
Shampooers
Manicurists and pedicurists
Eyebrow threading and waxing technicians
Makeup artists 
Exercise trainers and group fitness instructors
Tattoo artists and piercers
Tailors
Shoe and leather workers and repairers

Recreation and instruction

Golf caddies
Self-enrichment teachers
Recreational and tour pilots
Tour guides and escorts
Travel guides
Sports and recreation instructors

Transportation and delivery

Parking and valet attendants
Taxi, rideshare drivers and chauffeurs
Shuttle drivers
Goods delivery people
Personal vehicle and equipment cleaners
Private and charter bus drivers
Water taxi operators and charter boat workers
Rickshaw, pedicab and carriage drivers
Home movers

How ‘no tax on tips’ works

The “no tax on tips” provision allows eligible workers to deduct up to $25,000, which reduces taxable income.
The deduction phases out, or gets smaller, once modified adjusted gross income exceeds $150,000. The tax break is available even if you don’t itemize deductions.
However, “you’re still likely paying state taxes” on tip income, and you’ll owe payroll levies for Medicare and Social Security, Ben Henry-Moreland, a certified financial planner with advisor platform Kitces.com, previously told CNBC.
The provision, which defines “qualifying tips” as money willingly given by the customer or payor, includes gratuities paid in cash or by credit card, as well as earnings from a tip-sharing arrangement. More

More people are pausing their student loan payments, amid the fallout of the Biden-era SAVE plan and other troubling financial conditions.
Between 2024 and 2025, the number of student loan borrowers enrolled in an economic hardship deferment doubled.
Between those in a forbearance or deferment status, more than a quarter of the country’s over 40 million federal student loan borrowers had their repayment progress suspended.

Sentir Y Viajar | Istock | Getty Images

Fewer people with federal student loans are making payments on their debt.
Around 10.3 million borrowers were enrolled in a payment pause known as a forbearance in the third quarter of 2025, up from around 2.9 million during the same time period in 2024, according to U.S. Department of Education data analyzed by higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

(The Education Department’s fiscal year starts on Oct. 1; its third quarter spans April 1 to June 30.)
Another 3.4 million federal student loan borrowers had deferred their payments in the third quarter of this year, up from 3.2 million a year earlier, Kantrowitz found. Deferments, which are available for various reasons such as job loss or a cancer diagnosis, are another way for borrowers to postpone student loan payments.
More from Personal Finance:Trump floats tariff ‘rebate’ for consumersStudent loan forgiveness may soon be taxed againStudent loan borrowers — how will the end of the SAVE plan impact you? Tell us
Between those in a forbearance or deferment status, more than a quarter of the country’s over 40 million federal student loan borrowers had their repayment progress suspended during the third quarter.
“It shows that many borrowers are struggling to balance loan payments alongside housing, child care and other rising costs,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York.

Fallout from the end of SAVE plan

The sharp increase in student loan borrowers enrolled in a forbearance stems, at least in part, from the fallout of a Biden administration-era repayment plan. President Joe Biden’s SAVE, or Saving on a Valuable Education, plan was met with Republican-led legal challenges and eventually repealed this summer in President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill.”
The millions of borrowers who enrolled in the SAVE plan were placed in a forbearance in the summer of 2024 while the lawsuits played out. That payment pause remains available, although the Trump administration is now charging interest to those who take advantage of it.
It’s unclear how many borrowers currently remain in the plan, but the Education Department recently said around 7 million people had signed up for it.

While some borrowers may be opting to keep their payments paused, others who want to get out of the SAVE forbearance are struggling to do so, Kantrowitz said. As of the end of July, the Education Department had a backlog of over 1.3 million applications from borrowers trying to get into an income-driven repayment, or IDR, plan, recent court documents show.

Repayment troubles

Many student loan borrowers with their bills paused can’t afford the repayment plan options available to them, consumer advocates said. The monthly payments on SAVE were much lower than those offered under other plans, and recent legislation further narrows borrowers repayment choices.
“The student borrowers for whom the SAVE plan was the only affordable option will be severely impacted by these changes,” said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.
For example, a student loan borrower with an annual salary of around $75,000 would pay $166 a month under SAVE, compared with $429 under the Income Based Repayment plan — the program experts have described as the next best option after SAVE right now.

Another sign that student loan borrowers are struggling can be found in the steep increases in deferments for those who’ve lost their job or experienced another financial hardship.
The number of borrowers in an economic hardship deferment doubled from 50,000 in the third quarter of 2024 to 100,000 in the third quarter of 2025, Kantrowitz calculated. Those signed up for the unemployment deferment rose to 180,000 from 140,000 over that period.

A cycle that ‘delays financial milestones’

Time spent in a deferment or forbearance can be incredibly costly.
A typical federal student loan borrower can see their debt grow by $219 a month in interest charges alone while they pause their payments, Kantrowitz calculated. (That assumes they owe the average outstanding federal student loan balance of around $39,000, and have the average interest rate of roughly 6.7%.)
“The risk is that interest can continue to accrue during these pauses, making balances even harder to manage long-term,” said Boneparth, who is also a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.
“For many, it becomes a cycle that delays financial milestones like saving for retirement, buying a home or starting a family.” More

For 2025, you’re eligible for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less for single filers, or $96,700 or less for married couples filing jointly.
President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” added tax breaks that could expand eligibility for the 0% capital gains bracket.
That 0% bracket could offer unique financial planning opportunities, experts say.

D3sign | Moment | Getty Images

Many investors don’t know about the 0% capital gains bracket, which allows you to “harvest gains,” or sell profitable assets, without triggering taxes.
With new deductions added for 2025, more investors could qualify for the 0% bracket under President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill.″

That could offer a “golden opportunity” to sell investments at 0% capital gains, along with other tax strategies, said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.
More from Personal Finance:Wealthy Americans are traveling to Europe to dodge tariffs on luxury goodsRoth conversions could slash Trump’s $40,000 ‘SALT’ deduction for high earnersS&P 500 investors have been rewarded in 2025. Experts say it’s time to diversify
Here are some key things investors need to know, according to financial experts.

How the 0% capital gains bracket works

Assets owned for more than one year qualify for long-term capital gains, levied at 0%, 15% or 20%, based on taxable income. There’s also a 3.8% surcharge for higher earners, which brings the total to 23.8% for some investors.  
For 2025, you qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate if your taxable income is $48,350 or less for single filers, or $96,700 or less for married couples filing jointly.

You calculate taxable income by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income. However, if you sell investments, those gains count toward taxable income for the bracket.
Still, with a higher standard deduction, a temporary $6,000 deduction for older Americans, and other tax breaks added via Trump’s legislation, more investors could fall into the 0% bracket for 2025, experts say. 

Use the 0% bracket for ‘tax-gain harvesting’

One benefit of the 0% long-term capital gains bracket is a strategy known as “tax-gain harvesting,” or strategically selling profitable brokerage account assets during lower-income years.    
It’s the “perfect window to trim concentrated positions or rebalance portfolios tax-free,” said Jared Gagne, a CFP and private wealth manager at Claro Advisors in Boston. 

Others use the 0% capital gains bracket to sell investments and quickly rebuy to “reset their cost basis,” or the asset’s original purchase price, according to CFP Andrew Herzog, associate wealth manager at The Watchman Group in Plano, Texas.
Increasing your cost basis decreases your profit, which could lead to future tax savings, he said.  
Of course, you need to consider how these strategies fit into your broader financial plan, including legacy goals, experts say.   
For example, if you’re planning for adult children to inherit profitable assets from your brokerage account, they would already receive a “stepped-up basis,” based on the market value on your date of death.      More

In 2024, employers with health insurance covered 75% to 85% of plan costs, and workers paid the rest via premiums, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.
But health care prices are expected to rise in 2025, and employers could soon pass more expenses along to workers, a recent survey from Mercer found.
Here’s how I am planning for open enrollment amid uncertain costs.

Azmanl | E+ | Getty Images

As a certified financial planner and personal finance reporter, I spend a lot of time thinking about saving money on rising medical expenses.
Health insurance is a key employee benefit, and many workers don’t spend much time picking the right plan, surveys show.

Nearly one-third of health insurance enrollees spent less than 30 minutes choosing a plan in 2024, according to an Employee Benefit Research Institute survey of more than 2,000 participants in fall 2024.
Some 48% of millennials, my generation, admitted to “blindly” picking health plans because they didn’t understand them, a separate Justworks survey of nearly 4,200 U.S. adults from late 2024 found.
More from Personal Finance:Debt struggles hit consumers at all income levels — here’s whyTrump accused Fed’s Lisa Cook of mortgage fraud. That can be hard to proveStudent loan repayment plans have shifted — and more changes are ahead
Picking the wrong plan could be costly as health care prices rise.
Companies expect health plan expenses to increase by 9% in 2026, according to the nonprofit Business Group on Health, based on June survey responses from 121 large employers with plans covering 11.6 million workers.

In 2024, employers offering health insurance covered 75% to 85% of plan costs, and workers paid the rest via premiums and copays, according to a survey of 2,100 firms from the Kaiser Family Foundation, a health-care policy organization.
But as plan costs rise, companies could shift more expenses onto workers in 2025, financial consulting firm Mercer found, based on a survey of roughly 700 organizations.
Amid uncertain costs, here’s how I’m preparing for health care open enrollment choices this fall.
Tracking health care spending
One of the hardest parts of picking health insurance is knowing future needs. There is no crystal ball, but you can review past medical spending.
Several years ago, I started tracking annual out-of-pocket health care costs, including co-payments, prescriptions, medical bills, over-the-counter expenses and more. It’s tedious, but I use the number for two open enrollment tasks: 

Finding the right health insurance plan 
Deciding how much to save in my flexible spending account (FSA)

Total out-of-pocket expenses, along with detailed receipts, are also useful at tax time to see if I can claim the medical expense deduction, which isn’t typical. (You must itemize tax breaks to qualify, and 90% of filers use the standard deduction, according to the latest IRS data. Even then, unreimbursed medical expenses have to exceed 7.5% of adjusted gross income.)   

Paying now vs. later
Typically, health plans offer two choices. You can pay more upfront via higher premiums from each paycheck. Or, you can pay more later with a bigger deductible, which is how much you owe before insurance kicks in.
By tracking yearly medical expenses, I can see which option could be more affordable for the coming year.
In some cases, the higher deductible is cheaper when you’re healthy and rarely use services. Plus, many plans cover preventative care, such as yearly physicals, at no cost, before hitting the deductible.
That strategy could change if I expect multiple treatments or a surgery. In that case, I would consider opting for the higher premium, lower deductible plan.

Cover your health insurance deductible
Regardless of the health plan I choose, I always aim to cover my deductible plus other out-of-pocket expenses with my FSA, which is also funded via paycheck deductions. 
The money goes in before taxes, and I can spend those pretax funds on eligible healthcare expenses, co-payments and deductibles. I think of the tax savings like a discount.
The downside of FSAs is I must spend the balance by the end of the calendar year — or forfeit the funds — with a small carryover allowed into the next year. I track that spending monthly to avoid a surprise balance in December.
The average household FSA contribution was $2,250 in 2024, and 77% was expected to be spent by November, according to 2024 data from Numerator, a market research data provider.

dowell | Moment | Getty Images

Leverage a health savings account
Before joining CNBC, I was a full-time freelance writer for six years, with a high-deductible health insurance plan through Healthcare.gov.
Premiums were high, but I could contribute to a health savings account, which works like a long-term emergency fund for medical expenses. Unlike an FSA, the balance rolls over yearly.
If you can afford to leave the money untouched, some HSAs let you invest the balance for long-term growth.
HSAs offer three tax benefits. There’s an upfront deduction for deposits, the funds grow tax-free and withdrawals are tax-free for eligible health care costs.
In 2024, two-thirds of companies offered investment options for HSA contributions, according to a survey from Plan Sponsor Council of America, which polled more than 500 employers in the summer of 2024. 
But only 18% of participants were investing their HSA balance, down slightly from the previous year, the survey found. More