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Finding higher pay is one way workers can combat high inflation.
But a limited window of opportunity may be gone in six months.

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New government jobs data shows the U.S. labor market is still strong, with a record low unemployment rate of 3.5%.
“The unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years,” President Joe Biden said on Friday. “We have just finished the two strongest years of job growth in history.”

Yet as the Federal Reserve looks to curb inflation, there is the risk the job market may decline in 2023. The question is whether that will result in a “soft landing” or full-blown recession.
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“A soft, beautiful perfect landing is still going to mean a lot more layoffs and a much softer labor market,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
For workers who are looking for jobs now, there’s a lot of urgency, he said.
“Today is better than it’s going to be six months from now,” Challenger said. “So I would try to make your moves as soon as possible.”

Job-switchers more likely to get a raise above inflation

The latest data shows job switchers have seen 7.7% wage growth as of November, while workers who have stayed in their jobs have seen 5.5%, noted Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, citing figures from the Atlanta Federal Reserve.
However, workers may not be currently seeing wage bumps quite that big, due to the fact that data looks back over the past year, he said.
Higher pay has been needed to keep up with inflation. The consumer price index, a measure for a wide basket of goods and services, was up 7.1% in November compared with the previous year.
Wage growth, based on average hourly earnings, is up 4.6% from a year ago.

“People who switch jobs are much more likely to be getting a raise above inflation than people who are staying in their jobs,” Zhao said.
One caveat is that real wage growth may exceed inflation in 2023, if present trends hold, according to Curt Long, chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions. 
But with a possible economic downturn looming, workers seeking higher pay face a more complex decision as to whether to stay or go.

‘Best way to know your worth is to get an outside offer’

The gap between wage growth for job switchers and job stayers is the highest on record, at 2.2 percentage points versus 0.7 percentage points historically, noted Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.
“There’s a big incentive for workers to job hop,” Pollak said.
New pay transparency laws, which require employers to disclose the pay ranges they’re willing to offer new employees for advertised positions, may also help, she said.

Those laws are currently in effect in Colorado, California, Washington and New York City. In September, New York state will follow.
People who do not live in those areas can still find pay information on websites such as ZipRecruiter, Glassdoor and others, she said.
With pay rates so competitive now, even some laid-off workers are finding higher offers than what they were earning before, according to Pollak.
“The best way to know your worth is to get an outside offer, which makes the whole thing real,” Pollak said.

Look for a pay match in your current role

Workers who see new hires getting paid more may want to approach their current employer, Pollak noted.
Tell them you love your job, have learned a lot and are committed to the company, yet you have learned your income would be higher elsewhere. “If you can match that, I would be thrilled to stay,” Pollak suggested saying.
Employers may have more reason now to pay to retain talent. A record 4.5 million workers quit their jobs in November, an 8.9% increase from the previous month.

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“We’re still seeing a lot of job churn,” Long said. “People are leaving current jobs, finding new jobs, at a rate higher than it was previous to the pandemic, but it’s lower than it was early in 2022.”
Often to have a valid request for more pay, you have to put in the work and win job interviews and get job offers, according to Challenger.
“It’s the way you go out and verify your worth in the market,” Challenger said.
If you go that route, you must be prepared for the fact that your current employer may not match the offer.
“You do have to be willing to move,” Challenger said.

Changing jobs before a downturn is ‘a balance of risk’

Admittedly, the decision of whether to make a big career move right before an economic downturn is “always a balance of risk,” Challenger said.
If a company decides to pursue layoffs, they may follow a “last in, first out” policy that leaves the newest hires with pink slips. “It’s not risk-free to move jobs in the middle of a falling market,” Challenger said.
“But right now you have more leverage than you’re going to have six months from now,” he said.
While the job market is still healthy, it is not as hot as it was six or 12 months ago, Zhao said. In 2023, that may translate to slower hiring and subdued plans for pay raises, he said.

If you never take any risks, then it’s going to be difficult to get the pay raise or job that you want.

Daniel Zhao
lead economist at Glassdoor

Before making a move, it’s worth considering whether there are aspects of your job that can make up for not getting the exact raise you want. For example, if you can negotiate working from home one more day per week, that can help save money on gas or other transportation costs, Zhao said.
Also, consider other compensation in the form of benefits and the value of your happiness in your current position. “Base pay isn’t everything,” Zhao said.
After evaluating your options, the best approach is to take an “educated risk,” he said.
“If you never take any risks, then it’s going to be difficult to get the pay raise or job that you want that’s the right fit for you,” Zhao said.

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President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan may fall through due to challenges in Supreme Court.
Borrowers should explore the many other loan relief options across the country for which they may qualify.

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Popular repayment plans lead to forgiveness

After 20 to 25 years of payments, borrowers enrolled in so called income-driven repayment plans get any remainder of their debt cancelled by the federal government.
“Income-driven repayment plans are also student loan forgiveness plans,” Kantrowitz said.

In the meantime, borrowers’ monthly bills are capped at a share of their discretionary income, and some payments wind up being as little as $0. As a result, experts recommend that low-income borrowers explore the options.

Many qualify for Public Service Loan Forgiveness

Signed into law by then-President George W. Bush in 2007, the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program allows certain nonprofit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years, or 120 payments.
Although the program has had its fair share of problems, the Biden administration recently made a number of improvements to it.

Andrii Dodonov | Istock | Getty Images

There are typically three primary requirements to qualify for the program, although the recent changes provide some more wiggle room in certain cases:

Your employer must be a government organization at any level, a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organization or some other type of not-for-profit organization that provides public service.
Your loans must be federal Direct loans.
To reach forgiveness, you need to have made 120 qualifying, on-time payments in an income-driven repayment plan or the standard repayment plan.

The best way to find out if your job qualifies as public service is to fill out a employer certification form.
In 2013, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau estimated that 1 in 4 American workers could be eligible for the program.

Forgiveness options for teachers, nurses and others

In addition to those two main programs, there are numerous other forgiveness opportunities that many borrowers miss out on because they don’t know about them, experts say.
Full-time teachers who work for five consecutive years in a low-income school may be eligible for up to $17,500 in loan forgiveness under the Teacher Loan Forgiveness Program.
The Nurse Corps Loan Repayment Program allows certain nurses to get up to 85% of their student debt cancelled.

There are many other opportunities for loan forgiveness that often go unknown…

Mark Kantrowitz
higher education expert

Health professionals who commit to at least two years of service in a Native American community can receive as much as $40,000 in student loan assistance through the Indian Health Service Loan Repayment Program.
The John R. Justice Student Loan Repayment Program provides loan assistance of up to $4,000 a year, or as much as $60,000 in total, to state and federal public defenders and state prosecutors who agree to remain employed in those positions for at least three years.
Federal agencies also offer student loan repayment assistance programs, Kantrowitz said. Agencies can make payments to a federal employee of up to $10,000 a year, for a total of $60,000, according to the U.S. Office of Personal Management.
Meanwhile, there are numerous state-level student loan forgiveness programs.

For example, the Get on Your Feet Loan Forgiveness Program in New York offers certain recent graduates who are enrolled in an income-driven repayment plan relief equaling 24 months of payments.
And lawyers in Texas who work for specific legal aid programs may be eligible for the Texas Student Loan Repayment Assistance Program.
“Student loan forgiveness is based on the borrower’s occupation, in most cases,” Kantrowitz said. “So they should look for forgiveness based on their job, especially for their state.”

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Apple CEO Tim Cook poses in front of a new MacBook Airs running M2 chips display during Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference in San Jose, California, June 6, 2022.
Peter Dasilva | Reuters

With the brutal 2022 behind us, we look ahead to a year of relatively predictable challenges. This calls for careful investing with a longer-term view. To help the process, here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street’s top analysts, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their track record.

DoubleVerify Holdings

As its name suggests, DoubleVerify (DV) helps to improve the safety and security of online advertising. A pioneer in this area, the company’s services are employed by customers in the financial services, retail, automotive, travel, telecom, and pharmaceutical sectors. (See DoubleVerify Holdings Stock Chart on TipRanks)

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Truist analyst Youssef Squali sees multiple growth opportunities, especially in the social media field. Interestingly, DoubleVerify’s social media client roster includes names such as TikTok, Microsoft (MSFT)-owned LinkedIn, Reddit, Amazon’s (AMZN) Twitch, Meta’s (META) Facebook and Instagram, and YouTube. Looking at this, Squali expects “social media as a channel has unlocked incremental spend for DV to attack within walled gardens, which advertisers value vs. letting these platforms ‘grade their own homework.'”
Moreover, the analyst pointed out that DoubleVerify’s sophisticated software solutions help client companies safeguard their brand reputation while maximizing their return on ad spend. This is particularly important as the digital advertising ecosystem is growing and so is competition. A safe, fraud-free, and appropriately targeted ad environment also helps companies draw traffic.
Squali is “incrementally bullish” on DoubleVerify, with a Buy rating and $36 price target. The analyst stands 92nd among more than 8,000 analysts tracked on TipRanks. Moreover, 57% of his ratings have been profitable, bringing 17.6% returns per rating on average.

Apple

Investors may be spooked by Apple’s (AAPL) weakening demand and production issues right now (as evident from the sharp decline in stock value). However, taking into account the value that the company has returned to shareholders in the past years, even through market downcycles, these headwinds seem to be mere hiccups in the company’s long-term journey.
Tigress Financial Partners analyst Ivan Feinseth agreed, adding that the “near-term production headwinds create a long-term buying opportunity, and its massive installed user base, increasing ecosystem, and growing Services revenue will continue to drive accelerating Business Performance trends, and greater shareholder value creation.”

Feinseth is particularly upbeat about the company’s foray into the metaverse with the launch of its mixed-reality headset this year.
Moreover, strong balance sheet and cash flow generating capabilities should enable Apple to continue to invest in growth-driving initiatives and enhance shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividend hikes. (See Apple Dividend Date & History on TipRanks)
The analyst reiterated a Buy rating on AAPL stock with a price target of $210. “AAPL is on our Research Focus List and in our Focus Opportunity Portfolio,” emphasized Feinseth, who holds the #269 position among more than 8,000 analysts on TipRanks.
The analyst’s ratings have been profitable 59% of the time and each rating has generated average returns of 10.5%.

Booking Holdings

Booking Holdings (BKNG) is an online platform for making travel and restaurant reservations, which, needless to say, has been benefiting lately from the easing of Covid-related travel restrictions. The stock joins Apple in Ivan Feinseth’s “Research Focus List” and “Focus Opportunity Portfolio.”
Continued travel demand has been transcending the current macroeconomic uncertainties, and that is a boon for Booking. Feinseth also points out that the reopening of China after a prolonged period of strict zero-Covid policy “creates a massive upside catalyst.” (See Booking Holdings Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks)
The company is also gaining increased penetration in the direct travel booking market thanks to its Genius loyalty program and its concept of travel integration. “BKNG’s ability to optimize its market reach and profitability through new technology, including machine learning and other forms of AI (Artificial Intelligence), enables it to expand its global reach, drive more competitive pricing, and increase profitability,” said the analyst.
Feinseth reiterated a Buy rating on Booking, with a price target of $3,210.

Bumble

The challenging economic environment has led to too many problems for the public to be thinking about love. This has left investors swiping left on online dating service provider Bumble (BMBL), leading to a sharp drop in share prices.
Nonetheless, Stifel Nicolaus analyst Mark Kelley maintains a solid relationship with Bumble. “We view Bumble as one of the most innovative companies in the global online dating space offering a compelling and differentiated value proposition for consumers, which we believe will lead to a long runway of paying user/ARPPU growth, and a multi-year operating leverage story,” noted Kelley.
In the last quarter, Bumble launched its message-before-match feature, “Compliments,” which is expected to boost user engagement and thus, support monetization efforts. (See Bumble Blogger Opinions & Sentiment on TipRanks)
Additionally, the analyst believes that Bumble’s mission to prioritize user safety, accountability, and control helps the company stand out in the crowd of competing platforms. Importantly, Kelley also believes that Bumble may be heading into its best days as users increasingly open up to real-life dating after the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the dating ecosystem since 2020.
Despite reducing the near-term price target to $27 from $30, Kelley maintains a Buy rating on Bumble.
The analyst’s track record shows that his conviction is worthy of consideration. Kelley has a 103rd ranking among more than 8,000 analysts. Moreover, 70% of his ratings have been successful, generating 31.5% average returns per rating.

Perion Network

Global technology player Perion Network (PERI) is another stock that Mark Kelley has vouched for recently. The analyst’s optimism was reflected in the reiteration of his buy rating and higher price target ($34 from $29). Its recent quarterly results showed positive trends, which led to the renewed conviction.
The analyst views Perion as a “unique ad tech offering,” boasting a portfolio of technology for helping advertisers and publishers scale their business. Perion’s growth journey has been a combination of organic expansion and expansion through acquisitions. Together, they have built a suite of assets that serve the “three pillars of digital advertising” — search, social media, and display/CTV. (See Perion Network Financial Statements on TipRanks)
Kelley expects the global digital advertising market to reach $650 billion by the end of this year. Within that, the analyst estimates the exact opportunity of Perion in terms of TAM (total addressable market) to be around $190 billion, keeping aside the $460 billion TAM estimate for Google search.

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About 23% of Medicare’s 65.1 million beneficiaries are enrolled in a Medigap plan.
While these supplemental insurance policies either partially or fully cover cost-sharing associated with basic Medicare (Part A hospital coverage and Part B outpatient care), the monthly premiums can be pricey.
A variety of things can contribute to the cost of premiums, both when you first sign up and over time.

Dragos Condrea | Istock | Getty Images

If you’re signing up for Medicare, you’ve likely discovered that there are a lot of out-of-pocket costs that come with your coverage.
For about 23% of Medicare’s 65.1 million beneficiaries, the solution for covering those outlays is a so-called Medigap plan.

These policies, sold by private insurance companies, generally pick up part or most of the cost-sharing — i.e., deductibles, copays and coinsurance — that comes with basic Medicare (Part A hospital coverage and Part B outpatient care).
However, they do have limitations, and monthly premiums can be pricey.
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Nevertheless, some beneficiaries determine that pairing basic Medicare with a Medigap policy is a better fit than choosing to get their Parts A and B benefits delivered through an Advantage Plan (or having no supplemental insurance at all). Those plans, which can restrict coverage to in-network providers, also usually include Part D prescription drug coverage, often come with no premium and may offer extras such as dental and vision. 
The reasons that some beneficiaries instead choose Medigap alongside basic Medicare vary from person to person, according to Elizabeth Gavino, founder of Lewin & Gavino and an independent broker and general agent for Medicare plans.

For example, she said, they may want more freedom in choosing doctors and other providers or need coverage while away from home  — i.e., they travel a lot, sometimes for extended stays. (Advantage Plans may disenroll you if you remain outside their service area for a certain time — typically six months.)

Here’s what to know about Medigap policies if you’re considering purchasing one.

Medigap policies are standardized

Medigap policies are standardized across most states — available plans are designated A, B, C, D, F, G, K, L, M and N — so you know the benefits are the same regardless of where you live or which insurance carrier is offering, say, Plan G or Plan N.
However, not every plan is available in all states. And, Plans C and F aren’t available to people who are newly eligible for Medicare in 2020 or later.
To be clear, each lettered plan differs in what is covered.
For instance, some may pay the full Part A deductible ($1,600 per benefit period in 2023), while others don’t. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has a chart on its website that shows the differences. You also can use the agency’s search tool to find available plans in your ZIP code.

Many states let doctors have a 15% ‘excess charge’

Also be aware that in many states, some doctors or other providers may charge you the difference between the Medicare-approved amount under Part B and their full fee, with a 15% cap on that “excess charge.” 
“If your state is one that allows up to the 15% excess charge, consider [a plan] that covers it,” Gavino said. 

Also, be aware that Medigap plans don’t cover costs associated with prescription drug coverage — unless, perhaps, the policy was issued prior to 2006. This means you’d need to purchase a standalone Part D plan if you want that coverage.
Medigap also doesn’t cover services that are excluded from Medicare’s coverage, generally speaking, such as dental or vision.

There are rules that go with Medigap signup

When you first enroll in Part B, you generally get six months to purchase a Medigap policy without an insurance company checking on your health history and deciding whether to insure you.
After that, depending on the specifics of your situation and the state you live in, you may have to go through medical underwriting.

There’s huge variation in cost

Despite Medigap policies’ standardization, the premiums can vary greatly.
For example, in New York, the lowest monthly premium for Plan G is $278 and the highest is $476, according to the American Association for Medicare Supplement Insurance. In Iowa, the least expensive Part G policy is $79 and the most expensive is $192.
There are several reasons for the wide variance in pricing, said Danielle Roberts, co-founder of insurance firm Boomer Benefits. That includes the cost of health care in your area, the open enrollment rules for your state and the actual loss ratio experienced by the insurance company across all policyholders with that same plan, she said.
“For example, Medigap plans cost more in New York because they have year-round open enrollment,” Roberts said.

If the carrier can’t underwrite for health, then they must raise the rates for everyone.

Danielle Roberts
Co-founder of Boomer Benefits

“This means that residents there can literally wait until they get sick to buy a policy,” she said. “If the carrier can’t underwrite for health, then they must raise the rates for everyone.”
Additionally, insurance companies routinely roll out new plans, Roberts said. So if an insurer begins offering a plan and taking on new policyholders for it, over time the premiums rise a little each year due to inflation and claims, making that plan less competitive when another insurer opens a new plan that hasn’t incurred any losses yet, she said.
“Healthy people who can pass underwriting begin to switch plans to the cheaper company and then the first company is left with a lot of people who can’t pass underwriting to switch,” Roberts said. “That is an aging block of business with many policyholders who have costly health conditions, which further drives up the rates.”

The way a Medigap plan is ‘rated’ also matters

Another difference in Medigap premiums can come from how the plans are “rated.” If you know this, it may help you anticipate what may or may not happen to your premium down the road.
Some plans are “community-rated,” which means everyone who buys a particular one pays the same rate regardless of their age. 
Others are based on “attained age,” which means the rate you get at purchase is based on your age and will increase as you get older. Still others use “issue age”: The rate won’t change as you age, but it’s based on your age at the time you purchase the policy (so younger people may pay less).

These are some other things to consider

Svetikd | E+ | Getty Images

If you work with an agent, ask how many insurance companies they work with (or are “appointed with”), according to the American Association for Medicare Supplement Insurance. They may not recommend a particular insurer’s policies if they don’t get a commission to do so.
There also may be a household discount offered.
“One trend we see is that carriers are becoming more lenient with this and not requiring the spouse to be on the policy to qualify,” Roberts said. “Many will give you a discount just for having another person living at the same residence.”
Also, be aware that some insurance companies give large discounts to new enrollees, but the reduction in price may go away in a year or two.
“You’ll want to know that up front,” Roberts said.

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Layoff “survivors” report higher stress and less motivation than before job cuts.
Leaders should be in tune with their employees concerns and communicate a clear message on how the company will move forward.
Managers should know what tool are available to increase needed skills for remaining workers.

Amazon and Salesforce are among the latest tech companies to announce job cuts, after rapid hiring over the last several years. For every company announcing layoffs, senior leaders and managers must keep the remaining employees motivated and productive. 
Among U.S.-based companies, announced layoffs were up 172% in the fourth quarter of 2022 — with more than 154,000 jobs cut, as compared with nearly 57,000 in final quarter of 2021, according to the latest report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas.  

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“Managers should know what to expect after a layoff,” said Connie Whittaker Dunlop, founder of Monarch Consulting Group, which develops leaders, teams, and organizations through coaching and training. “Layoffs done wrong are going to incur additional costs of hiring and defeat the initial purpose.”
The aftermath of a layoff is significant not only for those who lose their jobs but also those who remain. Companies that go through layoffs are often left with employees who are less trusting, less committed and less satisfied, experts say.

Leading and managing ‘layoff survivors’

About 70% of “layoff survivors” say their motivation at work has declined since the layoff, according to a survey done in late November by BizReport. Additionally, 66% report they feel overworked since the job cuts, and a third of those who survived a layoff believe that things will worsen for their company in the future. 
Workers feeling insecure in their jobs and higher levels of stress lead some employees to quit out of frustration. To counter those negative sentiments, experts say leaders need to communicate the organization’s near-term goals and plans very clearly with front-line managers.
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“Leaders have to show how they’re in tune with what’s the most important thing for their teams to accomplish with fewer people,” said Mark Dollins, president of North Star Communications Consulting, a consulting firm focused on talent development.
Having a clear and compelling story about how the layoffs are going to better prepare the company for the future is an important component to managing change.
That means “giving employees confidence that we’re doing this because it’s not just a reactive thing,” Dollins said, “and when we get to the end of this state, as a result of this restructuring or layoffs or whatever we’re calling it, we’re gonna be in a better place.”

Be transparent about ‘quiet hiring’

Marko Geber | Digitalvision | Getty Images

“Quiet hiring” is when an organization acquires new skills without actually hiring new full-time employees. That may mean current employees temporarily move into new roles.
To avoid the pushback from layoff survivors who already feel overwhelmed, experts say leaders should let workers know what skill sets will be needed and how they can get them and communicate that clearly. Otherwise, they risk a public employee backlash.
“Workers don’t take this out in the breakroom anymore, they take it out on TikTok,” said Sam Caucci, founder and CEO of workforce training platform 1Huddle.

Signal an ‘all-clear’ 

Layoffs tend to come around the end of the fiscal year, as companies close their books and make adjustments for the future. Of course, economic conditions can always change, but giving employees an ‘all-clear’ signal when the company is done with a round of layoffs can help reset the stage.
“That creates a sense of ‘OK, now let’s get back to work’,” Dollins said.

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The former president seems to have foregone Social Security benefit income.
Here’s why you may not want to employ that strategy for yourself.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump claps as he announces that he will once again run for U.S. president in the 2024 U.S. presidential election during an event at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, November 15, 2022.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

When former President Donald Trump’s tax returns were released last week, the line for Social Security income was notably left blank.
About 70 million Americans rely on Social Security for monthly income when they retire or become disabled. The program may also provide benefits for qualifying family members of those who have retired, disabled or died.

To qualify, workers generally need to earn 40 credits by working and paying Social Security taxes. Eligibility for retirement benefits starts at age 62.
By those measures, Trump, 76, should qualify for retirement benefits, which will provide a maximum monthly income of $3,627 per month in 2023 for workers who claim at their full retirement age (generally age 66 or 67, depending on year of birth). Higher benefits are possible for people who continue to work or claim benefits after full retirement age.
Yet Trump had no Social Security income for tax years 2015 through 2020, based on his individual tax returns.
Trump’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

High earners sometimes ‘just skip Social Security’

While wealthy individuals technically qualify for benefits after paying into the program, it is up to them whether or not they claim the monthly checks, noted Jim Blair, vice president of Premier Social Security Consulting and a former Social Security administrator.

“It’s not necessarily uncommon that the real high earners just skip Social Security,” Blair said.
The program currently faces a funding shortfall, whereby just 80% of benefits will be payable in 2035 if no changes are made sooner. Yet with more than $1 trillion in benefits paid in 2022, one less claimant may not make a huge difference for the program.
“We’re talking over a trillion dollars in benefits, so one person not taking it doesn’t make that much of a difference,” Blair said. “But every dollar helps, I guess.”
The example brings up the question whether very rich individuals should claim Social Security benefits, according to Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who has served in various roles at the Social Security Administration.
“As I see it, there’s nothing wrong with it,” Biggs said.
“Not only did you pay for the benefit, you were forced to pay for the benefit,” Biggs said. “I don’t think anyone can question if you decide to accept it.”
But the next question is whether we should have a system designed to pay benefits to high-income people, Biggs said. The answer to that is no, he said.
In the U.K. or Australia, Trump would not be eligible for a benefit anywhere near the size of U.S. Social Security benefits, Biggs noted.
“It’s surprising that he didn’t [claim], because I don’t see any practical reason why he wouldn’t,” Biggs said of Trump.

Why Trump’s strategy may not be best

While Trump may never intend to claim Social Security benefits, there are some lessons other retirees can learn from his example.
Retirees stand to receive the biggest benefit checks if they hold off claiming Social Security until age 70. Claimants receive reduced benefits if they claim at 62, the earliest possible age. At full retirement age, they stand to receive 100% of the benefits for which they qualify based on their earnings record. But for every year they delay from full retirement age up to 70, they stand to receive an 8% bump to their benefits.
Importantly, there are no increases past age 70. Consequently, Trump is leaving money on the table.
Blair said he was recently approached by a financial adviser for advice on how to handle a 72-year-old client who still had not claimed Social Security. Unfortunately, the most Social Security will pay is six months of retroactive benefits, Blair said.
As a result, the client would forfeit the benefit income they would have received for the rest of that time.
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“They just give up those benefits and don’t receive anything for it,” Blair said.
“There’s no reason to wait past age 70 to start your Social Security,” he said.
Yet a recent MassMutual quiz on Social Security shows this is one rule about the program claimants may get wrong. Just 49% of respondents were able to correctly answer a true-or-false question on the financial effect of delaying past 70, the results found.
Another reason Trump’s claiming strategy may fall short: His loved ones may be eligible for benefits based on his record, including his wife Melania, and son Barron, who at age 16 is still a minor.

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Short sellers won big in 2022 as the broader market declined, tallying $300 billion in mark-to-market profits on average short interest of $973 billion, according to S3 Partners.
Investors shorted less in 2022 than 2021.

Traders on the floor of the NYSE, June 24, 2022.
Source: NYSE

Traders who shorted stocks won big in 2022, according to S3 Partners.
Shorted stocks had a return of 30.8% in 2022, said Ihor Dusaniwsky, the firm’s managing director of predictive analytics. That means short sellers outperformed the broader market, which suffered its biggest losses since 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 8.8%, 19.4% and 33.1%, respectively, last year.

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2 days ago

U.S. short sellers tallied $300 billion in mark-to-market profits on average short interest of $973 billion, Dusaniwsky wrote.
But even with the huge win in 2022, short sellers still lag in recent history. In the past five years, an average annual return for short sellers was a loss of 4.4% while the Dow gained 6.8%, the S&P 500 rose 9.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 12.5%.

How short holdings performed over the last 5 years

Dow return (%)
S&P 500 return (%)
Nasdaq return (%)
Short return (%)

2018
-5.6
-6.2
-4.7
8.9

2019
22.3
28.9
35.2
-22.1

2020
7.3
16.3
43.6
-27.1

2021
18.7
26.9
21.4
-12.6

2022
-8.9
-19.4
-33.1
30.8

5-year average
6.8
9.3
12.5
-4.4

Source: S3 Research

When an investor sells a stock “short” they borrow shares from a broker and sell them in hopes of buying the stock back later at a lower price. It’s a tactic that does best when the broader market is hurting. Short seller returns came in below the major indexes when the market gained value in 2019 through 2021, but beat the averages when they ended the year down in 2018.
It’s worth noting that the total amount shorted last year was below 2021, when the $1 trillion threshold was broken, but higher than in 2018 through 2020.
Short sellers still needed to be good stock pickers in 2022 as different sectors and individual holdings could produce vastly different results, Dusaniwsky said.

For instance, the best sector to short last year was beat down communication services stocks, which produced a return on shorted holdings of 56.7%. Energy was the worst, and posted a 28% loss on shorted holdings, S3 Partners said.
Short- and long-term performance are typically inversed. That’s because investors usually move short on holdings that they expect to lose value, so energy — which was the only winning S&P 500 sector in 2022 — would not be a target for shorting as investors watched share values rise despite the broader market’s decline.
And choosing sector orientation is “only half the battle” given the variety of stocks within each one. Within consumer staples, for example, Beyond Meat had the biggest return on short selling at 128.2%. French fry producer Lamb Weston was the least profitable in its sector, and lost 43.9%.
Carvana, which was beat down as used car demand slid, had the best short performance of all stocks with at least $100 million in short interest, recording a 377.6% gain.
On the flip side, Madrigal Pharma was the worst to short. Bets against the company lost 345.4%. The stock rallied in December on the back of well-received drug trial data.

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Even if you aren’t subject to the “use it or lose it” approach used by 23% of employers when it comes to contributions to health care FSAs, be sure you know your company’s rules.
A reprieve does not necessarily mean you won’t end up forfeiting 2022 money, according to Employee Benefit Research Institute.
If you need to find ways to spend remaining funds, it may be easier to do so because the list of eligible FSA items is longer than it used to be.

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Collectively, workers may have forfeited an estimated $1 billion in their health-care flexible spending accounts last year.
Yet depending on your employer’s rules for those FSAs, which let workers save pre-tax money to pay for qualifying health expenses, you may have sidestepped being part of that cohort — at least for now. 

While 23% of companies that offer health-care FSAs stick to the Dec. 31 “use it or lose it” approach, the remainder either offer a grace period to spend leftover funds or let you carry over a limited amount into the next year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute.
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However, if you’re allowed to carry over 2022 funds, the limit is $570. And if you get a grace period, it can be up to 2.5 months, which would mean a new deadline of March 15 to spend the money.
Nevertheless, some employees end up losing out despite those reprieves.
Among workers who are allowed to carry over money, 49% end up forfeiting all or part of it, according to the institute. For those with a grace period, that share is 37%. Additionally, 48% with a traditional Dec. 31 deadline forfeit money, as well.

Last year, individuals could have contributed as much as $2,850 to their health-care FSA. The limit for 2023 is $3,050.

Look into your workplace FSA rules

It’s common for workers to not know what their employer’s FSA rules are. If you’re uncertain, reach out to your company’s human resources department, said Jake Spiegel, research associate at the institute.
Alternatively, you can check your online FSA portal (if your company has one) for information. There also should be a phone number (for customer service) on the back of your FSA debit card that you can call.

Ways to spend down your FSA balance

If you discover you’ve only got a couple of months to spend remaining 2022 funds and are unsure how to use it, be aware that the list of eligible expenses that qualify for FSA money is longer than it once was, due to congressional action in 2020.

Think about what sorts of over-the-counter medicines or other things you could pick up that you’d buy anyway.”

Jake Spiegel
Research associate at the Employee Benefit Research Institute

For starters, over-the-counter drugs no longer need a prescription to qualify. This includes things such as cold medicines, anti-inflammatories and allergy medicine.
Additionally, menstrual care products are now eligible, as are items that have become pertinent during the pandemic: at-home Covid tests, masks, hand sanitizer and other personal protection equipment used to combat the virus.
“Think about what sorts of over-the-counter medicines or other things you could pick up that you’d buy anyway,” Spiegel said. “That can help people draw down some of their balance.”

Other products that qualify include sunscreen, thermometers, eye-care products, baby monitors and pregnancy tests. FSAstore.com has a list of eligible items if you are uncertain whether something would qualify.
Be aware that the IRS does not allow stockpiling, which generally means you can’t buy more of a product at one time than you can use in that tax year. The specifics, though, are determined by FSA administrators.

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