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    Alibaba, other China ADRs surge as Ant Group capital plan approval fuels hope for relaxing scrutiny

    The American depository receipt shares of Alibaba jumped more than 6% in premarket trading following the news.
    The moves come as investors are seeing signs of a more relaxed Chinese regulatory environment.
    A softer regulatory touch among its tech stocks, as well as the reversal of zero Covid policies, is seen by some investors as a sign that the Chinese government will be supportive of private sector growth this year.

    Alibaba has faced growth challenges amid regulatory tightening on China’s domestic technology sector and a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. But analysts think the e-commerce giant’s growth could pick up through the rest of 2022.
    Kuang Da | Jiemian News | VCG | Getty Images

    Chinese tech stocks that trade in the U.S. jumped Wednesday morning after Chinese officials approved an expanded capital plan from Ant Group.
    The American depository receipt shares of Alibaba jumped more than 6% in premarket trading following the news, as did shares of JD.com. Elsewhere, shares of Baidu and NetEase rose more than 5% each, while Trip.com popped 4.5%.

    The moves come as investors are seeing signs of a more relaxed Chinese regulatory environment. Ant Group, which previously had its own IPO plans scuttled by regulatory concerns, was allowed to double its registered capital as part of the new plan.
    A softer regulatory touch among its tech stocks, as well as the reversal of zero-Covid policies, is seen by some investors as a sign that the Chinese government will be supportive of private sector growth this year.
    “China has struck a notably accommodating tone in recent months, pivoting away from its stringent COVID controls and dialing back its regulations on previously highly depressed sectors (i.e., property). The recent Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) has set government’s priority for 2023 to revive consumption and support the private sector,” Fawne Jiang of Benchmark Capital wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
    ADRs are similar to common stock, but represent a more indirect form of ownership. They also allow Chinese shares to trade in the U.S. without the companies having to follow U.S. accounting regulations, which has led to concern that they may be delisted at some point in the future.
    However, last month the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board — a U.S. accounting watchdog — announced that it had received access to examine accounting firms in China and Hong Kong. That move is seen as a positive step in lowering the risk of delisting.

    — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
    Correction: Chinese tech stocks that trade in the U.S. jumped Wednesday morning. An earlier version misstated the day.

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    Don’t assume the interest on your savings account is keeping up with Federal Reserve rate hikes. Here’s why

    You may assume the Federal Reserve rate hikes mean you are making higher interest on your cash.
    Here’s why you could be wrong.

    Valentinrussanov | E+ | Getty Images

    As the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates, you may assume you’re earning more on the money in your savings account.
    But that may not be the case.

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    Carolyn McClanahan, a certified financial planner at Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida, was recently surprised when a client told her he was hardly making any interest on his cash.
    The interest rate on his Capital One account was 0.3%, far lower than the 3.3% annual percentage yield the firm is currently advertising for new savings accounts. McClanahan discovered the same situation when she checked her own Capital One account.
    “I was not happy,” McClanahan said.
    While a call to Capital One’s customer service revealed it was possible to access the higher interest rate by opening a new account, McClanahan decided it was better to move the money elsewhere.
    “I’ve been recommending Capital One for a long time, and they are now off my list,” McClanahan said.

    Capital One did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate to the highest levels since 2007. While that makes borrowing more expensive for credit cards and other accounts, the expectation is that it will also push up the interest consumers can make on their cash savings.
    Some online savings accounts are touting rates as high as 4%. Some certificates of deposit, or CDs, may provide higher rates, depending on the term.
    Rates are expected to climb even higher as Federal Reserve poised to continue its hiking cycle in 2023. Bankrate.com predicts top-yielding national money market and savings accounts could climb to 5.25% by year end.
    Yet like McClanahan, others may be in for a surprise if they realize their accounts are not keeping up with those top rates.
    “Consumers need to check their accounts at least once a month to see what their accounts are earning,” said Ken Tumin, senior industry analyst at LendingTree and founder of Deposit Accounts.
    “Don’t assume it’s the latest greatest rate,” he said.
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    Following Fed rate hikes, online savings accounts should generally be in the ballpark of the federal funds rate within about a month, according to Tumin.
    There are signs that may help consumers spot when they may get shortchanged on rates.
    Watch for changing account names, Tumin said. If a bank is touting savings offers under a new account name from when you opened your account, the terms you are subject to might not be the latest.
    If you see a new account, often you can request to be upgraded.
    “That’s an easy way to get the benefit of the higher rate,” Tumin said.
    Also be more vigilant when a bank, such as Emigrant Bank, has more than one online division, Tumin said. In September, Emigrant’s Dollar Savings Direct division was the first to offer 3% on an account, which eventually climbed to 3.5%.
    Now, however, its My Savings Direct division has the highest rate for an online account, with 4.35%, Tumin noted.

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    Secure 2.0 changes 3 key rules around required withdrawals from retirement accounts

    President Joe Biden signed a $1.7 trillion omnibus federal spending package on Thursday that contains several retirement provisions, including some updates to required minimum distribution rules.
    RMDs force many savers to pull money from tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs and 401(k) plans each year, starting at a certain age.
    The so-called Secure 2.0 retirement law raises the RMD age, reduces tax penalties and eliminates RMDs from Roth accounts in employer plans.

    President Joe Biden signed a $1.7 trillion legislative package on Dec. 29, 2022 that has several updates for retirement savers.
    Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    1. Raising the RMD age to 73 (and eventually 75)

    Currently, savers have to start taking RMDs at age 72. The withdrawal amount is based on a calculation dictated by factors like account value and longevity.

    The new law raises the RMD starting age in two tranches: to 73, starting in 2023, and to 75, starting in 2033.
    In other words, individuals who turn 73 this year must take their first distribution no later than April 1, 2024. The distribution for subsequent years would need to be made by Dec. 31 of that year.
    Note that people who delay their first withdrawal until early 2024 would need to take two distributions next year — one for 2023 and one for 2024.

    Delaying the RMD starting age “overwhelmingly” benefits the wealthy, said Jeffrey Levine, a certified financial planner and certified public accountant based in St. Louis. Such savers are disproportionately the ones who can afford not to tap their retirement accounts to fund their lifestyles.
    Yet deferring the RMD age can benefit many savers from a financial-planning perspective, too.
    For example, it may help temporarily reduce premiums for Medicare Part B and D, Levine said. Medicare premiums are tied to income, and distributions from pretax retirement accounts raise a taxpayer’s income; delaying that bump to annual income can therefore keep premiums lower for longer.

    2. Eliminating RMDs from a Roth 401(k)

    Starting in 2024, investors in employer retirement plans likes Roth 401(k) accounts will no longer have to take RMDs.
    This change aligns Roth 401(k) with Roth IRAs, which don’t require distributions during one’s lifetime.
    That discrepancy was a big reason for Roth 401(k) owners to roll money out of their workplace retirement plan to a Roth IRA — thereby avoiding RMDs and allowing retirement funds to continue growing tax-free.

    However, there are other considerations relative to keeping your money in a 401(k) or rolling it over. For example, investment options, fees and service level may be better in one versus the other, Levine said, depending on the quality of your workplace retirement plan.
    And there may be more Roth assets in workplace plans going forward due to another change allowing employers to pay a matching contribution to a Roth versus pretax account.

    3. Reducing RMD tax penalties

    Withdrawal rules can be complicated — and making a mistake can be expensive.
    The IRS assesses a tax penalty on account owners who fail to withdraw the full amount of their RMD or who don’t take a distribution by the annual deadline.
    The new law reduces the tax penalty to 25% — from 50% — on the RMD amount that wasn’t withdrawn. If a taxpayer corrects their mistake in a timely fashion, the penalty falls further, to 10%.
    The IRS can waive penalties if savers can demonstrate the shortfall was “due to reasonable error and that reasonable steps are being taken” to remedy it, according to the agency.
    While many people miss their required withdrawals each year, this particular rule change may not have a large impact since the IRS often waives penalties in such situations, Levine said. However, it could prove especially useful if the IRS were to crack down, he added.
    To qualify for relief, taxpayers must file Form 5329 and attach a letter of explanation. 

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    Mega Millions jackpot surges to $785 million. If there’s a winner, this is the tax bill

    No matter how jackpot winners choose to receive their windfall — as an annuity or a one-time lump-sum payment — taxes can take a big chunk of the money.
    If someone were to win this jackpot and take the cash option of $403.8 million, a 24% mandatory federal tax withholding would shave $96.9 million off the top.
    With a top rate of 37%, however, the winner could expect to owe more.

    Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    Of course, the advertised amount is only what you’d get if you were to choose to take your winnings as an annuity spread over three decades. The lump-sum cash option — which most winners choose — for this jackpot is $403.8 million, as of midday Tuesday.
    Regardless of how you’d decide to receive your windfall, taxes would take a bite out of it.

    $96.9 million in taxes would be shaved off cash option

    Assuming you’re like most winners and were to choose the cash option, a mandatory 24% federal tax withholding would reduce the $403.8 million by $96.9 million. That would cut your take to $306.9 million.
    However, you could expect to owe more to the IRS at tax time. The top federal income tax rate is 37% and applies to income above $578,125 for individual tax filers and $693,750 for married couples who file a joint tax return.

    This means that unless you were able to reduce your taxable income by, say, making large tax-deductible charitable contributions, you would owe another 13% — or about $52.5 million — at tax time. That would bring your winnings down to $254.4 million. 
    There also could be state or local taxes depending on where the ticket was purchased and where you live. Those levies range from zero to more than 10%.

    Most Mega Millions players, though, won’t have to worry about paying millions of dollars to the IRS or state coffers: The odds of a single ticket matching all six numbers to land the jackpot is about 1 in 302.6 million.
    Meanwhile, the Powerball jackpot is $291 million (with a cash option of $147.9 million) for Wednesday night’s drawing. The chance of hitting the motherlode in that game is slightly better: 1 in 292 million.

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    It’s time to boost 401(k) contributions for 2023: ‘You’re smart to jump on this,’ says advisor

    You can defer $22,500 into your 401(k) for 2023, up from the $20,500 limit in 2022.
    It may be easier to achieve your 2023 retirement savings goals by boosting contributions now, experts say.
    But you need to know how your company’s 401(k) match works before front-loading deposits.

    Designer491 | Istock | Getty Images

    If you’re eager to boost your retirement savings, there’s good news for 2023: higher 401(k) contribution limits. And now is the time to adjust your deferrals, financial experts say.
    You can funnel $22,500 into your 401(k), 403(b) and other such plans for 2023, up from the $20,500 limit in 2022. Employees 50 and older can contribute an extra $7,500, up from $6,500 in 2022.

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    In 2021, roughly 14% of investors maxed out employee deferrals, according to 2022 estimates from Vanguard, based on 1,700 plans and nearly 5 million participants.
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    “You’re smart to jump on this,” said certified financial planner Catherine Valega, founder of Green Bee Advisory in Boston. “Most people set [401(k) contributions] once and never look back.”
    If you aim to max out 401(k) contributions for 2023, it may pay off to start early, as spreading it out may be easier than contributing more later in the year.
    And more time in the market may offer more growth potential, said Marguerita Cheng, a Gaithersburg, Maryland-based CFP and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth.

    “The sooner you can increase your contributions, the sooner you can have your money working for you,” said Cheng, who is also a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

    Get to know your 401(k) match before front-loading

    Higher earners may also consider front-loading 401(k) contributions to reach the deferral limit before year-end.
    For example, if you receive an October bonus, you may front-load 401(k) contributions to max out the plan, freeing up more take-home pay for November and December.
    Before maxing out the plan early, however, you need to know how your 401(k) match works, Valega said. Many companies only kick in matching funds when you defer part of your paycheck.

    The sooner you can increase your contributions, the sooner you can have your money working for you.

    Marguerita Cheng
    CEO and co-founder of Blue Ocean Global Wealth

    In that case, you won’t receive the full employer match unless you make 401(k) contributions every pay period.
    However, other plans have what’s known as a “true-up,” meaning the company calculates the 401(k) match on an annual basis rather than every pay period.
    “It means they don’t really care when you put in your money,” Valega explained. “They will make sure that you get the full match at the end of the year.”
    You can learn more about your match by checking your 401(k) summary plan description, which covers how the account works, or reviewing the document with a financial advisor.

    When to limit 401(k) contributions 

    While maxing out 401(k) contributions is a lofty goal, there are reasons why you may decide to limit deferrals after receiving the full company match.
    “This, of course, may vary depending on goals,” said Marianela Collado, a CFP and CPA at Tobias Financial Advisors in Plantation, Florida.

    For example, if you’re saving for a down payment for a home, you may temporarily reroute funds to meet your short-term goal, she said.
    Likewise, if you’re sitting on high-interest credit card debt or don’t have an emergency fund, you may allocate money elsewhere before increasing 401(k) deferrals.

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    There’s still time to get health insurance through the public exchange — and you may qualify for help paying premiums

    Most people who get their health insurance either through the federal marketplace or their state’s exchange qualify for tax credits that reduce the cost of premiums.
    Some people also are able to get help covering deductibles and copays.
    Here are some important things to know.

    FatCamera | E+ | Getty Images

    Anyone without health insurance has about two weeks left to get 2023 coverage through the public marketplace — and subsidies could make it affordable.
    Open enrollment for the federal health care exchange runs through Jan. 15, with coverage taking effect Feb. 1. (If your state has its own exchange, the last day to enroll may be different.) After the sign-up window closes, you’d generally need to experience a qualifying life event — i.e., birth of a child or marriage — to be given a special enrollment period.

    Most marketplace enrollees — 13 million of 14.5 million in 2022 — qualify for federal subsidies (technically tax credits) to help pay premiums. Four out of 5 customers will be able to find 2023 plans for $10 or less per month after accounting for those tax credits, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
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    Some people may also be eligible for help with cost sharing, such as deductibles and copays on certain plans, depending on their income.
    For the most part, people who get insurance through the federal (or their state’s) exchange are self-employed or don’t have access to workplace insurance, or they don’t qualify for Medicare or Medicaid.
    As of Dec. 15, nearly 11.5 million people had selected a plan through the marketplace, according to CMS.

    The tax credits are more generous now

    The subsidies are still more generous than before the pandemic. Temporarily expanded subsidies that were put in place for 2021 and 2022 were extended through 2025 in the Inflation Reduction Act, which became law in August.
    This means there is no income cap to qualify for subsidies, and the amount anyone pays for premiums is limited to 8.5% of their income as calculated by the exchange. Before the changes, the aid was generally only available to households with income from 100% to 400% of the federal poverty level.
    The marketplace subsidies that you’re eligible for are based on factors that include income, age and the second-lowest-cost “silver” plan in your geographic area (which may or may not be the plan you enroll in).

    For the income part of the determination, you’ll need to estimate it for 2023 during the sign-up process.

    Giving a good estimate matters

    Be aware that it’s important to give a good estimate.
    If you end up having annual income that’s higher than what you reported when you enrolled, it could mean you’re not entitled to as much aid as you’re receiving. And any overage would need to be accounted for at tax time in 2024 — which would reduce your refund or increase the amount of tax you owe.
    “You don’t want a nasty surprise when you do your taxes the next year,” said Cynthia Cox, director for the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Affordable Care Act program.

    Likewise, if you are entitled to more than you received, the difference would either increase your refund or lower the amount of tax you owe.
    Either way at any point during the year you can adjust your income estimate or note any pertinent life changes (for example, a birth of a child, marriage, etc.) that could affect the amount of subsidies you’re entitled to.

    Falling behind on premiums can mean getting dropped

    Be aware that if you don’t pay your premiums (or your share of them), you face coverage being canceled and claims going unpaid.
    For enrollees who get subsidies, coverage is generally dropped after three months if premiums are not caught up. For those who pay the full premiums because they don’t qualify for subsidies, there’s only a grace period of about a month before cancellation, depending on the state. 
    If you end up without insurance, you can’t re-enroll through the marketplace unless you qualify for a special enrollment period.

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    Top Wall Street analysts like these stocks in 2023

    Source: Papa Johns

    We step into the new year with a largely unchanged macroeconomic backdrop and a recession waiting for us. However, investors can maintain a healthy portfolio if they keep a longer-term view, shutting out all the noise.
    In that context, we kickstart 2023 with five stocks picked by Wall Street’s top analysts, according to TipRanks, a service that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

    STAAR Surgical

    Medical technology company STAAR Surgical (STAA) is benefiting from solid demand for refractive corrections (surgical corrections for eye conditions) across the world. Moreover, BTIG analyst Ryan Zimmerman believes that favorable demographic trends, including an aging population and a rising number of myopia cases, are also driving demand for STAAR’s products.
    Earlier in December, the company announced that its president and chief executive officer, Caren Mason, is retiring by the end of the month. Mason will be succeeded by Thomas Frinzi, who has earlier served as head of Johnson & Johnson’s vision unit and president of Abbott Medical Optics. Zimmerman said the appointment of Frinzi can appease investors, thanks to having 40 years of experience in medical optics. (See Staar Surgical Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks)​
    The analyst is also upbeat about the demand environment for STAAR’s products across different time periods. “Next-gen lenses to new markets should drive near-term growth, while expanded indications, presbyopia, and cataract companion drive long-term growth,” noted Zimmerman, who reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $80.
    Zimmerman ranks No. 861 among more than 8,000 analysts tracked on TipRanks. Moreover, 44% of his ratings have been profitable, with each rating generating 7.2% average returns.

    Papa John’s 

    Quick-service pizza chain Papa John’s (PZZA) stock has depreciated significantly this year due to challenges in the U.K. and inflationary pressures, but its longer-term outlook remains resilient. BTIG analyst Peter Saleh noted that during these times when inflation is high and a recession is on the horizon, lower-income consumers are spending less on eating out. Therefore, Papa John’s value offerings like Papa Pairings are attracting new lower-income guests.

    After surveying more than 1,000 Papa John’s customers, Saleh found that only a low-single-digit percentage of them find the menu prices too expensive, even after the company raised prices by 3-4 times in 2022. Encouraged by these trends, the analyst mildly raised his 4Q22 domestic same-store sales expectations. (See Papa John’s International Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks)
    Saleh reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $100. “We believe new leadership has the right strategies in place to engineer a turnaround; these efforts have already translated into better operating efficiency, stronger franchisee alignment, and improved net unit growth, and we expect these will continue to build in 2022/23. We see several near- and long-term levers to drive shareholder value that have started to unfold and will allow Papa John’s to again outperform peers, leading to our Buy rating,” said Saleh.
    Saleh has a 524th position among more than 8,000 analysts on TipRanks. Each of his 59% successful ratings has garnered an average return of 10.3%.

    Alphabet

    The next on our list is Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Brian White’s stock pick, Alphabet (GOOGL), which has proved to be more resilient than its peers in the digital ad market this year. Moreover, the company could mitigate impact on its business with the help of strong growth in Google Cloud.
    White said as “a challenging year nears an end, but harrowing headwinds persist in 2023,” Alphabet has started to reduce its expenditures to be better prepared. (See Alphabet Class A Stock Chart on TipRanks)
    “In our view, Alphabet is well positioned to capitalize on the long-term digital ad trend, participate in the shift of workloads to the cloud, and benefit from digital transformation,” said White, justifying his stance on Alphabet’s prospects for 2023. He reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $135.
    The analyst noted that Alphabet has delivered 23% sales growth per annum and 27% operating profits over the last five years. Along with a dominant position in the search engine area with leadership in digital advertising, White believes that the stock should trade at a healthy premium to the technology sector in the long run.
    White, a 5-star analyst on TipRanks, stands at No. 71 among more than 8,000 tracked analysts. Moreover, 62% of his ratings have been profitable, with each rating delivering an average return of 17.2%.

    Verizon

    Wireless and wireline communications services Verizon (VZ) is another name on our top-5 list this week. One of the picks of 5-star analyst Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Financial Partners, Verizon is well-positioned to gain from ongoing 5G wireless subscription growth as well as new growth opportunities in fiber and fixed broadband connectivity.
    Feinseth expects that its “size advantage” and prospects in the rapid deployment of high-speed 5G connectivity in the U.S. should fuel further growth in wireless subscribers. (See Verizon Stock Investors sentiment on TipRanks)
    Verizon boasts of a strong balance sheet and cash flow generating abilities that allow the company to invest in spectrum expansion and other growth initiatives. Moreover, a healthy financial position helps the company maintain a compelling dividend yield and consistent dividend hikes.
    “VZ’s expected generation of $54.53 billion in Economic Operating Cash Flow (EBITDAR) over the near-term provides it with significant cash to fund its 5G high-speed network rollout, spectrum purchases, other growth initiatives, strategic acquisitions, and ongoing dividend increases,” said Feinseth, who holds the 283rd position among more than 8,000 analysts on TipRanks.
    The analyst reiterated a buy rating and price target of $64 (adjusted lower from $68) on VZ stock. 
    Remarkably, 58% of Feinseth’s ratings have generated profits, and each rating has brought a 10.3% average return.

    MongoDB

    General purpose database platform provider MongoDB (MDB) is among Feinseth’s buy stocks that we think is a great addition to portfolios this week. Feinseth said that the company’s “industry-leading open-source database software structure” is attracting new customers.
    Despite lowering his price target to $365 from $575, the company is well-poised to profit from gradual increase in enterprise IT spending when companies adopt MongoDB’s highly customizable and scalable Database as a Service, Feinseth said. (See MongoDB Website Traffic on TipRanks)
    “The rapid acceleration of hosted and hybrid cloud migration is driving increasing demands for scalable, customizable, and developer-friendly database architectures that will continue to drive growth in MDB’s subscription-based revenue model. This will drive an ongoing acceleration in Business Performance trends, which will drive an increasing Return on Capital (ROC), leading to significant gains in Economic Profit and long-term shareholder value creation,” said Feinseth, justifying his stance on MDB stock.

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    Land & Buildings spots a chance to build value in a real estate play with Six Flags

    Customers are socially distanced on rides like the Wonder Woman: Lasso of Truth at Six Flags Great Adventure in Jackson, New Jersey.
    Kenneth Kiesnoski/CNBC

    Company: Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)

    Business: Six Flags is the largest regional theme park operator in the world and the largest operator of water parks in North America. They generate revenue primarily from selling admission to their parks and from the sale of food, beverages, merchandise and other products and services within the parks.
    Stock Market Value: $1.9B ($23.25 per share)

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    Activist: Land & Buildings Investment Management

    Percentage Ownership: about 3.0%
    Average Cost: n/a
    Activist Commentary: Land & Buildings is a real estate focused long-short hedge fund that will try to engage with management on a friendly basis when it sees deep value. It invests in deeply discounted real estate in the public markets and select corporate engagements. The firm’s positions are often under the 5% 13D reporting threshold. It’s prepared to nominate directors and has received board seats at American Campus Communities, Brookdale Senior Living, Felcor Lodging Trust, Life Storage, Macerich, Mack-Cali (now Veris Residential) and Taubman Centers.

    What’s Happening?

    On Dec. 21, Land & Buildings issued a presentation detailing a potential operational and strategic turnaround of Six Flags Entertainment, which includes monetizing the company’s real estate assets and considering a sale-leaseback.

    Behind the Scenes

    Land & Buildings (“L&B”) is a real estate focused investor, and this is primarily a real estate play. The firm is suggesting that Six Flags separate its real estate holdings, which L&B believes are worth more than the current enterprise value of the company. L&B has extensive knowledge and experience in this area. In 2015, the hedge fund commenced an activist campaign at MGM Resorts International, which ultimately led to the formation of an MGM real estate investment trust acquired by VICI Properties and significant margin enhancement at the operating company. Recent private transaction comps for gaming real estate, as well as public gaming REIT valuations, point to a 6% to 7% cap rate and mid-teens multiple for assets like theme parks. L&B believes there would be many interested acquirers.

    In its analysis, L&B assumes a 7.25% cap rate and a $2.8 billion value for the real estate. A sale-leaseback of the real estate could decrease earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization from $520 million to $315 million and assuming a 7x EBITDA multiple (SIX’s current multiple is 8x), the operating company would have a $2.2 billion enterprise value. With $2.8 billion in cash and $2.4 billion in debt, that would equate to a $2.6 billion asset value or market cap. With 83 million shares outstanding, that would equal a $31.32 share price, or a 34% upside to Six Flags’ current stock price (47% upside from the company’s unaffected stock price prior to the L&B plan being made public). L&B performed the same analysis on 2024/2025 EBITDA goals, which led to a $6.8 billion value and a 150% upside. Moreover, the hedge fund’s analysis assumes the $2.8 billion stays on the company’s balance sheet. If it is used to buy back shares around where they are trading now,, the return would even be greater.
    L&B believes that a sale of Six Flags’ real estate would allow the company to increase share buybacks, reinstate its dividend (which was eliminated at the beginning of the Covid pandemic) and pay down debt. Moreover, this is a shareholder base with many like-minded investors (HG Vora, H Partners, Long Pond Capital) and a relatively new CEO (November 2021) who may be amenable to a plan like this.  
    Getting a plan like this done would give the CEO a lot of time and capital (both real and figurative) to do what really needs to be done – fix the operational issues. When Selim Bassoul was appointed as Six Flags’ CEO in November 2021, he embarked on a strategy of trying to enhance the guest experience and create a more profitable, higher margin business by migrating to a more affluent, family-oriented customer base. This new strategy, which included getting rid of several customer perks, led to a significant drop in attendance, alienation of many current customers and subsequent price underperformance to peers. However, the jury is still out on whether it is working. If it results in a higher attendance at higher prices in 2023, then it worked and nothing will need to be done operationally. However, if attendance continues to lag through 2023, Bassoul may have to start giving back many of the perks he had taken away, such as modified dining passes. He may even have to consider lowering prices to their prior levels. Without stabilizing operations, the real estate strategy can only create so much shareholder value. However, optimizing attendance and stabilizing operations will magnify any value created by the real estate strategy.
    We would expect that Land & Buildings would want to have some sort of board representation to help with this strategy. Frankly, Six Flags should want the firm’s help if they choose to monetize the real estate. So, it would not be surprising to see an amicable settlement for a board seat or two. However, the director nomination window is between Jan. 11, 2023 and Feb. 10, 2023. If there is no settlement by then, L&B is almost certain to nominate directors, even if it is just to preserve the firm’s rights while it continues to talk with management. Should this go to a proxy fight, the like-minded investors mentioned above — H Partners (13.5%), HG Vora (4.2%) and Long Pond Capital (5.7%) — could be potential supporters of L&B.
    Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and he is the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments. Squire is also the creator of the AESG™ investment category, an activist investment style focused on improving ESG practices of portfolio companies. 

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