Evelyn Reynolds

The BLS said October payroll data will be released along with a full report for November.
An unemployment rate for October will not be included in those figures because the data “could not be collected,” the BLS said, citing the shutdown.

Recruiters speak to job seekers at the Appalachian State University internship and job fair in Boone, North Carolina, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025.
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday it will not release a full U.S. jobs report for the month of October, following the longest federal government shutdown in the history of the country.
Instead, the agency said October payroll data will be released along with a full report for November. An unemployment rate for October will not be included in those figures because the data “could not be collected,” the BLS said, citing the shutdown.

The agency also pushed back its November jobs data release to Dec. 16 from Dec. 5. The new date is six days after the Federal Reserve concludes its final policy meeting of the year — leaving the central bank with less information on the state of the economy. The delayed September nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled to be released on Thursday.
Without the full October data — and following recent hawkish commentary from some Fed officials — traders may be pricing in a lower chance of another rate reduction.
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool at midday Wednesday showed there’s a 63.8% chance that the Fed keeps its overnight benchmark rate steady in the 3.75%-4% range. That’s up from around 50% earlier in the day. More

Trump rolled out the red carpet for Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler as he arrived in Washington for talks ranging from security to civil nuclear energy partnerships.
The leaders signed a defense cooperation pact and held discussions about the sale of American F-35 fighter jets to the kingdom.
The White House said Saudi Arabia had pledged to increase an already-promised $600 billion worth of investments in the U.S., to $1 trillion.

U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman during an arrival ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 18, 2025.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump trumpeted Saudi Arabia’s $1 trillion investment pledge in the States and the potential sale of American fighter jets to Riyadh, but experts say there are lingering doubts over whether such deals will materialize.
Trump rolled out the red carpet for Saudi’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as he arrived in Washington on Tuesday for talks ranging from security to civil nuclear energy partnerships. The leaders signed a defense cooperation pact and held discussions about the potential sale of American F-35 fighter jets to the kingdom.

The U.S. visit by Mohammed bin Salman (or MBS, as he’s widely known) was not without controversy as it was the first time he had visited the States since the killing of Saudi critic and journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
U.S. intelligence determined that the crown prince had approved the operation that led to Khashoggi’s death in a Saudi consulate in Istanbul, but Riyadh denied any involvement in the murder.
Undeterred by global outrage over the death of Khashoggi, and question marks over Saudi Arabia’s rehabilitation and invitation to the White House, Trump and MBS said they had “finalized a series of landmark agreements that deepen the U.S.-Saudi strategic partnership.”
Among them, the White House said in a statement, was Saudi’s pledge to increase the $600 billion worth of investments in the U.S. that it made in May, to $1 trillion. The White House said the bump reflected “deepening trust and momentum for the United States under President Trump’s leadership.”
No further detail was given as to a time-scale around that trillion-dollar investment, however.

US President Donald Trump meets with Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC on Nov. 18, 2025.
Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images

A $1 trillion investment is equal to Saudi Arabia’s annual economic output in 2023 (of $1.07 trillion) and economists questioned whether that level of investment would, or could, materialize any time soon.
“These sort of pledges have become regular features of the international landscape, even when, as in the case of the EU [and it’s pledged investment in the U.S. as part of a trade deal] there’s absolutely no enforcement mechanism available,” Paul Donovan, chief economist at GBS Global Wealth Management, noted Wednesday.
“To put the Saudi pledge in context, that is the equivalent of almost an entire year’s GDP [gross domestic product] for the kingdom. The pledge may not therefore be honored in the near term,” he cautioned.

F-35s

In addition to the investment pledges, Trump and MBS discussed the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, with the kingdom reportedly looking to buy as many as 48 of the stealth fighter jets in what would be a multibillion-dollar deal.
The president “approved a major defense sale package, including future F-35 deliveries, which strengthens the U.S. defense industrial base and ensures Saudi Arabia continues to buy American,” the White House said. But no details were given on the number of planes sold, or any timeframe for their supply.

Such a sale could prove controversial with U.S. lawmakers whose sympathies and allegiance has traditionally leant toward Israel, the U.S.’ main and longstanding ally in the Middle East.
Israel is currently the only country in the Middle East to have F-35s and any sale of such advanced stealth technology to Saudi Arabia could be seen as risky, having the potential to shift military and power dynamics in the fractious region. For its part, the IDF is reportedly unhappy at the prospect of F-35 deal with Saudi Arabia, warning that Israel’s air superiority in the region would be jeapardized.
Trump shrugged off those concerns, telling reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that: “We’ll be selling F-35s,” although he alluded to Israel’s discontent, noting: “This [Saudi Arabia] is a great ally, and Israel is a great ally.”
“I know they’d like you to get planes of reduced calibre, but as far as I’m concerned, I think they are both at a level where they should get top of the line,” he added.

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35 fighter jet touches down at the former Roosevelt Roads military base in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, September 30, 2025.
Ricardo Arduengo | Reuters

Analysts say giving Saudi Arabia F-35s before it has signed the Abraham Accords thereby normalizing relations with Israel, would be a reward too far for Riyadh.
“Saudi Arabia is an important U.S. security partner, and increasing bilateral defense cooperation can further common interests and support efforts to build a regional security architecture that more effectively deters and defeats aggression,” Bradley Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in analysis.
“However, before providing Riyadh with the F-35, Washington should address concerns related to Riyadh’s relationship with China, follow the law regarding Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge, and demand that Saudi Arabia first normalize relations with Israel.”

‘Long road’ to supply

Lingering and deep-seated differences over a two-state solution could give the White House reasons to hesitate over the supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia, analysts noted.
“It’s one thing to announce big deals. It’s one thing to announce that Saudi Arabia will be permitted to buy the F 35 this advanced stealth fighter, but it’s another thing to actually have planes touching down and taking off from Saudi runways,” Paul Musgrave, associate professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told CNBC Wednesday.
“And between here and there, there’s a lot of details. And when you start to get into the details about who’s going to transfer what technology at what point, that’s where Congress — which is, I think fair to say, a little bit more friendly toward Israel than to towards Saudi Arabia — is going to have some input.”

“Now, that’s not to say that this deal is not going to go through because, of course, Israel also has suffered some reverses in its public standing, but there is going to be, I think probably, a decently long road between where we are and where we get to,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.” More

As the U.S. government reopens for business, Wall Street’s attention will now turn toward when critical data on employment, inflation and other economic signposts will be released.
The shutdown not only halted data collection and releases, but it also complicated the picture once the data does start coming out.
Agencies under the departments of Labor and Commerce had not posted revised schedules as of Friday morning, but updates are expected soon.
Some Democratic lawmakers already are getting impatient and demanding answers from the administration about when the data will be released.

Job seekers wait to enter the SacJobs Career job fair in Sacramento, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The first economic data report that went unreleased due to the government shutdown will be released next week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.
As the U.S. government reopens for business, Wall Street’s attention now turns toward when critical data on employment, inflation and other economic signposts will be released.

The first such report, on September nonfarm payrolls, will come out Thursday at 8:30 a.m., according to a BLS update posted on its website.
A day later, the BLS will release real earnings, a companion report to the monthly consumer price index that did not come out simultaneously in October because average earnings earnings, which are part of the payrolls report, were not released. Real earnings are the difference between the monthly CPI reading and the average hourly earnings.
In fact, September CPI was the only official data point released during the shutdown due to its role in computing the cost of living adjustment for Social Security benefits.
Economists expect that the “employment situation” report, as it is known, to include just the nonfarm payrolls count and not the unemployment rate.
That’s because the report entails two surveys: a more objective look at “hard data” from businesses that uses timecards and payroll numbers to assess how many jobs have been filled, and another entailing telephone calls and written surveys to households asking how many people are working. The latter survey is used to calculate the jobless rate and would be difficult to replicate.

The Commerce Department, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis, had not posted revised schedules as of Friday morning, but updates are expected soon.
Uncertainty on other releases casts another cloud over what has become an increasingly contentious policymaking atmosphere at the Federal Reserve — not to mention the nervous climate among investors.
“The absence of timely official numbers left the markets and the Fed operating in a data fog, forced to scour alternate sources to gauge the underlying outlook,” Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra said in a note. “With the shutdown resolved, all eyes will now be on the incoming data dump.”
The shutdown not only halted data collection and releases, but it also complicated the picture once the data does start coming out.

For instance, the October CPI report may never be compiled, owing also to the method used to gather data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses in-person visits, so the data can’t be collected retroactively. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned Wednesday about missing data, but Mishra said she wasn’t expecting the CPI report even before that.
A statement on the BLS site asks for patience during the data collection process as “it may take time to fully assess the situation and finalize revised release dates.” Similarly, the BEA, which releases several key data points including the Fed’s inflation gauge, said it is working with the BLS and other agencies on data collection and “will publish updated release dates as soon as they are available.”

Political pressure

In the meantime, some Democratic lawmakers already are getting impatient and demanding answers from the administration about when the data will be released.
Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Maria Cantwell of Washington and Gary Peters of Michigan insisted that “government shutdowns do not inherently inhibit the federal government from collecting or releasing economic data,” according to a letter obtained by CNBC.com
Citing precedent from the October 2013 shutdown, in which the BLS later published release dates, the administration “may be intentionally restricting the release of data.”
“The Trump Administration’s failure to release data or provide a clear schedule for the release of delayed data leaves businesses and policymakers without access to critical economic information,” the letter states. “It is critical that businesses, consumers, workers, Congress, and the Fed have access to timely and comprehensive economic data. The Administration must release as much economic data as possible before the Fed’s meeting and resume normally scheduled data releases as soon as possible.”
White House officials did not respond to a request for comment.

Waiting for the Fed

Since Leavitt’s statement Wednesday, several officials did say data would be forthcoming but there are still questions on which reports will come out when. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said data on payrolls and prices will have to be assessed for accuracy before it can be released.
“I’m not sure when BLS, if and when they will be able to release that, but I’m expecting they will tell us a schedule very quickly about when those numbers could come out,” Chavez-DeRemer said Friday on Fox Business. Chavez added that the White House has been “urging for accurate data to come out for November.”
Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a Friday note that he is optimistic the Fed will have the September, October and November jobs reports by the time it holds its next policy meeting on Dec. 9-10. Fed officials in September indicated that a December cut would be likely, but several key officials have said recently that they are suspect of the need for additional easing.
Outside of the payrolls and CPI report, the BLS also computes data on import and export prices, job openings, producer prices, productivity and other metrics. The Labor Department itself releases the weekly jobless claims numbers.
Beyond the BLS and Labor Department issues, the Commerce Department also handles several key data points.
Among them are personal income and spending, which includes the Fed’s main inflation forecasting measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, and gross domestic product. Data for October PCE is scheduled to be released Nov. 26. The Census Bureau handles retail sales, trade balance and durable good releases. Department officials did not respond to a request for comment. More

President Trump’s tariffs are contributing to beef price increases.
Exports of beef bound to the U.S. are down because of Trump’s trade war.
The U.S. cattle herd is the lowest in 75 years as drought and parasites take a toll, compounding the effect of any additional stress on the beef supply chain.

President Donald Trump is blaming the meat packers and U.S. cattlemen for rising beef prices, but the tariffs on beef from Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, feed, farm equipment and machinery are all adding to the price surge.
The United States is a big buyer of Australian, Brazilian, and New Zealand beef exports.

Brazil is the second-largest beef-producing country and the largest beef-exporting country in the world.
Brazilian beef exports tracked by Panjiva plummeted in July and August after multiple tariffs resulted in a layered 76.4% total rate being implemented for Brazilian beef. Trump imposed a 50% tariff rate for many Brazilian goods in July. Beef exports have found a new home, being diverted to other markets like China.
Exports of beef from Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay to the U.S. have also decreased as a result of tariffs.
The pullback in exports has reduced supply and is adding to pressures in an already tight U.S. beef supply chain.
“When you impose an extra 50% tariff on a major supplier like Brazil, importers may keep buying and pass costs along, or they may stop buying, but that means less supply to meet the demand,” said Dan Anthony, president of economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide. “Either way, you expect prices to go up, especially when imports from Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, and other key suppliers face new tariffs too,” he added.

The most recent consumer price index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the month of September showed prices for a variety of uncooked beef products rising year over year between 12% and 18%.
The compounding effect of tariffs comes at a time when the U.S. cattle herd is at near a 75-year low, and consumer demand for beef has grown.

Beef cattle in a pasture at a ranch in Sonoita, Arizona, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Cattle ranchers have had difficulties increasing the herd because of drought, which has diminished the amount of grasslands to feed their herds, and the higher costs in buying feed. Some imported fertilizers have faced double-digit tariffs, which have raised the cost of growing the crops (corn, soybeans) that are used in animal feed.
Tariffs on essential items like steel and aluminum have also increased the cost of farm equipment (tractors, grain bins) and repairs.
All of these added expenses carve out money from the coffers of ranchers and farmers that would be used for investing back into their operations.
“We’re in one of the toughest cattle cycles in history,” said sixth-generation Texas rancher James Clement III. “We have the smallest pipeline of future cattle and even with today’s prices, ranchers can’t speed up the process to rebuild the national herd, which will take time, grass, and rain,” he said.
Replacement heifers are down to a 20-year low.
Ranchers say it takes years to see a return on buying heifers.
“The fundamentals are tight, the runway is long, and the slightest shock makes an already fragile rebuild even harder,” Clement said. “This is a foreign concept to many other industries where production can be ramped up or down in weeks,” he added.
One of the biggest headwinds curtailing investment is the current political environment.
“Producers start second-guessing whether to hold back heifers or take the money today because uncertainty adds risk to ranchers wanting to retain or purchase heifers to rebuild their herds,” Clement said.
President Trump added to frustration among ranchers when he announced as part of a deal with Argentina in October having the country export beef into the United States to help lower beef prices, which the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said would harm rural America, comments that helped to sink the price of cattle futures.

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Live cattle futures trading chart year-to-date 2025 through November 13.

“We don’t need Argentine beef because the U.S. already produces more high-quality beef than ever before,” Clement said. “The expanded Argentine quota entering our market, it would amount to less than half of one percent, about one extra hamburger per person, nowhere near enough to move the needle,” he said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently acknowledged the dwindling herd numbers and announced a series of initiatives it hopes will encourage people to become cattlemen. The White House has become more focused on its affordability messaging in recent days and Trump administration officials have said policies are coming to lower prices on some grocery staples like bananas and coffee not grown in the U.S.
“It’s politically easy to slap tariffs on foreign competitors to defend domestic producers but the consumer usually ends up paying the cost,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners. “Demand then shrinks, they eat chicken instead and the domestic producers end up no better off,” he said.
While there are many ranchers sitting on the sidelines waiting for better economic conditions and incentives to grow their herds, Clement is investing in his ranch and is continuing to buy heifers to grow his operation.
“Cattle are a great long-term investment and ranching is a great life,” he said.
In addition to climate and feed costs, U.S. cattle ranchers are concerned about the possible return of the New World Screwworm. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins led the largest USDA trade mission to Mexico to discuss measures for combating NWS.
The parasitic fly lays eggs in the open wounds of warm-blooded animals. The larvae then hatches from the eggs and burrows into tissue of animals to feed on them. If caught early, the sick animal can be treated and survive. Human cases are rare but can be painful and require medical attention. This parasite was successfully eradicated from the United States in 1966, but some cattle in Mexico have been found infected with the parasite and all Mexican beef imports have been shuttered.
All of these supply chain challenges have added to the pressure on beef prices.
“We will adapt to market changes and New World Screwworm as ranchers have always done, by staying steady and calm in the face of all of the challenges that ranchers have always faced,” Clement said. More

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Wednesday he will be leaving his position when his term expires in February 2026.
The announcement comes ahead of a pivotal year for the Fed and its rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee.
Bostic’s term has not been without controversy. In October 2022, the Fed announced it was looking to trades Bostic made during blackout periods near policy meetings. He ultimately apologized for discrepancies.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Wednesday he will be leaving his position when his term expires in February.
Bostic has been in his current role since June 2017 and is the first Black and openly gay regional president. His term, which also was marked by issues relating to personal investments he made, runs until Feb. 28.

“I’m proud of what we accomplished during my tenure to turn the lofty goal of an economy that works for everyone into more of a reality, and I look forward to discovering new ways to advance that bold vision in my next chapter,” Bostic said in a statement.
The announcement comes ahead of a pivotal year for the Fed and its rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee.
Regional presidents serve five-year terms that generally run in sync and are designed to expire on years that end in either 1 or 6, which will be the case next year. While the local boards vote on the presidents, they are subject to approval by the Fed’s Board of Governors. Normally a routine process, unusual political dynamics on the board could add a new wrinkle to the procedure.
In addition to the reappointments of the regional presidents, Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair expires in May, though his run as governor goes until 2028.
Bostic has been seen as more of a centrist during his run, though he’s been more cautious about cutting interest rates this year during a time of elevated inflation and a softening labor market. He is not an FOMC voter this year. Atlanta next will get a vote in 2027.

Powell said Bostic’s “perspective has enriched the Federal Open Market Committee’s understanding of our dynamic economy. And his steady voice has exemplified the best of public service — grounded in analysis, informed by experience, and guided by purpose.”
Until the board names a successor, Cheryl Venable, the first vice president and chief operating officer at the Atlanta Fed, will handle the role of president.
Bostic’s term has not been without controversy.
In October 2022, the Fed announced it was looking at trades Bostic made during blackout periods near policy meetings. An internal report showed there were 154 trades made on his behalf during those times. However, the report also indicated there was no evidence Bostic traded on insider information or had personal conflicts.
There also were other issues raised regarding financial disclosure terms and an improper level of Treasury holdings.
For his part, Bostic expressed regret over the discrepancies and said the trades were executed by third-party managers over whom he did not have control.
The controversy was part of a larger issue with investments from Fed officials that triggered tighter internal controls and rules over what types of securities they are permitted to hold. More

Economic data releases that have lagged during the government shutdown likely will take some time to get rolling again once Congress is back in business.
Assuming the government reopens before the end of the week, Goldman figures the Bureau of Labor Statistics will put out an updated schedule of releases in the early part of next week.
When the data freeze ends, the reports are likely to show more of the same — a slowing labor market, inflation still holding above the Fed’s target and growth positive but also not gangbusters.

The U.S. Capitol building after the U.S. Senate advances a bill to end the government shutdown in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 10, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Economic data releases that have lagged during the government shutdown likely will take some time to get rolling again once Congress is back in business.
The reopening could happen as soon as the end of this week once final votes take place and President Donald Trump signs a stop-gap spending bill into law.

From there, though, it will take the various agencies, primarily in the departments of Labor and Commerce, to get up and rolling again as it regards data collection and releases. That means likely having to play catch-up for key reports like nonfarm payrolls, the consumer price index, retail sales, spending and income, and a variety of other metrics.
“The shutdown of the federal government has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October,” Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker said in a client note. “While the shutdown appears to be nearing its end, it will take time for the statistical agencies to work through the backlog of releases.”
Assuming the government reopens before the end of the week, Goldman figures the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will put out an updated schedule of releases in the early part of next week.

The BLS is in charge of the payrolls report as well as the CPI and the producer price index, both of which were scheduled for release this week. Other reports from the bureau include import and export prices, the employment cost index, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Goldman’s economists expect the October jobs report to be released soon after the reopening, possibly next Tuesday or Wednesday. “But apart from that, we expect other major data releases to be delayed,” they said.

That means the November payrolls and inflation reports could be delayed by “at least a week,” Goldman said.
For Commerce, among the more relevant reports are personal spending and income, which also includes the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index. Outside of that, there’s retail sales, durable goods and the quarterly gross domestic product reading.
When the data freeze ends, the reports are likely to show more of the same as far as the economy goes — a slowing labor market, inflation still holding above the Fed’s comfort level and broader growth positive but also not gangbusters.
Fed officials have noted the inconvenience of not having regular data reports. But Chair Jerome Powell said recently that alternative data shows the central bank really hasn’t missed much in terms of the macro picture.
“Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public- and private-sector data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September,” Powell said at an Oct. 29 news conference. “Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting the October nonfarm payrolls report to show a loss of 60,000 jobs. While Goldman puts the decline at 50,000, the general tenor of data for the month points to a slowdown.
Powell said Fed estimates put the key inflation rate at 2.8% for September, which is still considerably above the central bank’s 2% target but expected to decelerate gradually through 2026. The official PCE report is scheduled to drop Nov. 26, and it is unknown whether that will be the case.
As for the broader economy, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of incoming data puts third-quarter growth at a 4% rate. Goldman projects fourth-quarter growth of 1.3%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point from the prior forecast, putting the full year on pace for a 2% annualized gain. More

Judging by current data, you’d think there’s literally a job out there for anyone who wants one. Looking deeper under the hood, though, tells a different story.
Since the beginning of 2024, job openings have outnumbered hires by more than 2.2 million a month, according to BLS data that points to “ghost jobs” that never seem to get filled.

Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Judging by current data, you’d think there’s literally a job out there for anyone who wants one. Looking deeper under the hood, though, tells a different story.
The level of job openings as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for years has shown there are at least as many available positions as there are unemployed workers.

But comparing the openings with actual hirings shows that not all those jobs are being filled.
Not even close, in fact: Since the beginning of 2024, job openings have outnumbered job hirings by more than 2.2 million a month, according to BLS data. That points to an ongoing problem with “ghost jobs” that never seem to get filled.
“The U.S. labor market looks deceptively strong on paper. Millions of openings suggest opportunity, but many are illusions,” said Jasmine Escalera, career expert at MyPerfectResume, an employment assistance platform that released a report this week on the shadow employment market. “The ghost job economy inflates hope, wastes job seekers’ time and clouds the data [that] policymakers rely on to steer the economy.”
Job openings have generally been on the decline since peaking above 12 million in March 2022, when opportunities outnumbered available workers by better than 2 to 1. In August, the latest month for which data is available because of the government shutdown, openings totaled more than 7.2 million while hires were just 5.1 million. The ratio of vacancies to workers was about even.

To be sure, the picture isn’t as simple as comparing the two numbers.

The postings number represents the total stock of jobs, while hirings are the flow of people hired during a particular month. So a job can get posted across multiple months without being filled, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the companies advertising those positions don’t intend to hire someone.

Potential inventory
Moreover, some companies will post jobs just to keep an inventory of potential workers for positions that may open in the future.
Finally, the openings-to-hire ratio has fallen over the past few years, from 1.8 to 1 at the peak of the job opening cycle to the current level around 1.4 to 1, indicating fewer “ghost jobs” out there.

One issue affecting the gap: the changing labor pool as the U.S. has tightened its immigration standards.
Small business owners report the toughest time filling open positions since the Covid pandemic while noting that 88% of applicants for jobs lack the required skills, according to a National Federation of Independent Business report Tuesday.
However, the issue has drawn more serious attention in recent months as the labor market has begun moderating and net hiring has slowed to a crawl. At the same time, official government data is unavailable due to the shutdown in Washington, D.C.
Job seekers have become frustrated at not being able to find new positions. Mobility has decelerated, with the “quits rate” falling more than 30% from that March 2022 peak of job openings, during what was called the “Great Resignation.”
A petition on Change.org seeking to clamp down on companies advertising ghost jobs has garnered nearly 50,000 signatures.
There are real impacts on a policy level: Federal Reserve officials watch BLS job openings numbers closely for clues about how tight the labor market is, so having unreliable data clouds their vision.
“For job seekers, that means wasted time. For policymakers, it means distorted data. For employers, it raises serious credibility issues,” Escalera said. “Until postings more accurately reflect actual hiring, workers will continue to chase jobs that don’t exist, and trust in the labor market will erode.” More

Shoppers look at a canned fish display Nov. 4, 2025 at the Market 32 Supermarket in South Burlington, Vermont.
Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

As stock market investors support economic sentiment, some economists wonder if a looser labor market could pull the rug out.
The University of Michigan’s widely-followed consumer sentiment index slid more than 6% in November, nearing all-time lows and down about 30% from a year ago. Respondents were concerned that the long-running federal government shutdown would drag on the economy, according to survey director Joanne Hsu.

But at least one group bucked the sour mood: Those with the most stock holdings.
The individuals with sizable stock market wealth reported an 11% improvement in sentiment, which Hsu tied to the stock market’s recent rally to all-time highs.

Conventional wisdom is that wealthier consumers will keep spending as long as they feel good about their own circumstances and see their investments growing, bolstering the economy and corporate profits. But now other economists are concerned that federal labor data, once it resumes, may paint a darker picture of the economy and catalyze a market sell-off that would throw cold water on rosy outlooks.
“It comes down to the labor market,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust. “If you start getting negative job prints, the jig is up.”
K-shape economy
Economists told CNBC that the stock market is behaving as if the economy is “K”-shaped, with the best-off thriving while the lower end struggles.

Investors are counting on the higher-end of the “K” continuing to fare well and spending part of their discretionary income. The group’s resilience even in the face of high tariffs this year and the brief April swoon in stocks has eased concern about the likelihood of the economy tipping into a recession anytime soon.
RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, for example, said that while he doesn’t expect top end consumers to crack and cause a recession, the Michigan survey data underscores “severe market stress” on lower-end consumers that don’t own stocks and aren’t benefiting from the artificial intelligence trade.
“Elevated equity valuations partially mask the ongoing structural transformation of the economy down market — that does not favor those who work in traditional industries,” Brusuelas said. “It points to [a] very highly segmented economy with different realities based on which economic decile you live in.”
In other words, how much money you make and how many investments you hold.
Housing wealth too
The best-off consumers also likely benefit from rising home prices on their properties and, in many instances, low mortgage rates obtained during the Covid pandemic, according to Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial’s chief economist. That is yet another cause for optimism in this group — even if this year’s stock market rally loses steam, he said.
The benchmark S&P 500 has climbed more than 16% in 2025, excluding dividends, and is on track for its third straight winning year. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite has jumped nearly 22%, underscoring continued excitement around AI.

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite in 2025

Roach said the expected business benefits from President Trump’s “big beautiful bill” justify some market froth, and the promise of profits from AI can lure investors into buying stocks with high valuations.
Eye on labor
How long the economy will continue to depend on the top cohort of consumers may come down to the state of the labor market, Roach said.
With less immigration under the Trump administration, it may become easier to return to the workforce, as long as demand holds up. That in turn can drive up household incomes and help the economy sidestep a possible recession down the road, Roach added.
But Tilley of M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust said warning signs are flashing. Among them, data showing small businesses shrinking payrolls. Even before the government shutdown suspended the latest jobs reports, it seemed like nonfarm payrolls were showing signs of weakness.
If employment softens, it will be harder for investors to bank on the top end of the “K”-shaped economy holding firm. The idea that wealthy consumers can single-handedly prop up demand feels “reverse engineered” to rationalize why the stock market has jumped to records despite uncertainty in the job market, said Tilley, an economic adviser to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve for almost six years before joining Wilmington Trust.
“History shows: You start getting negative job prints, the economy and the market are going to come right after that,” Tilley said. “We’re 100% focused on the labor market, and we see a lot of chinks in the armor there.” More