Evelyn Reynolds

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    Some Republicans Join Democrats in Unease Over White House Budget Cuts

    President Trump has sought to claw back funds for public broadcasting and foreign aid, sparking a fierce debate over the power of the purse.A handful of Senate Republicans joined Democrats on Wednesday in sharp questioning of President Trump’s proposed budget cuts, exposing the depth of congressional unease with the White House’s new plan to pare back billions of dollars for foreign aid and public broadcasting.The rare display of bipartisan discord left the fate of that package uncertain at a moment when the Trump administration has signaled that it is willing to circumvent Congress to slash federal spending, potentially touching off a constitutional battle over the power of the purse.The dynamic played out over a tense, roughly three-hour grilling of Russell T. Vought, the White House budget director, who asked lawmakers to approve Mr. Trump’s request to rescind more than $9 billion in enacted funds. The administration has framed the package, unveiled this month, as the first of possibly many that could implement changes identified by the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.But Democrats and some Republicans on Wednesday questioned the president’s proposed clawbacks, which passed the House earlier in June. Some lawmakers said the cuts would undermine longtime bipartisan priorities, including a shared desire to preserve local television and radio stations and combat the global AIDS crisis.Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine and the chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said she worried about the implications for global health, particularly because some of the funding that the president targeted has “saved more than 26 million lives.”Lawmakers from both parties later echoed some of those criticisms, prompting Ms. Collins to conclude the hearing by saying that it showed the “depth of concerns about this rescission from members on both sides of the aisle” with the White House’s plans. A spokesperson for the senator later confirmed that she was drafting an amendment to change the package when it reached the Senate floor.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Yemeni Cafes like Haraz Coffee House Are Building Momentum and Community

    A couple of weeks ago, when Hamzah Nasser learned that the Israeli military had bombed the Yemeni port of Hudaydah, he knew he had a problem. His monthly coffee shipments already involved an arduous journey from the country’s mountainous interior to his cafe in Dearborn, Mich. — facing warring factions on land and rebel fire by sea. Now their usual path was blocked.“It’s getting a little bit stressful,” Nasser said. A Yemeni cafe requires Yemeni coffee. And Nasser, who plans to open many more Yemeni cafes, needs a lot more beans.Nasser, a former truck driver, opened his first Haraz Coffee House in Dearborn four years ago. Since then, he has gone from hauling parts for the likes of Ford to buying a 70,000-square-foot building in Dearborn that housed the company’s vehicle prototypes. His headquarters now holds two industrial roasters and a bakery, where a pastry chef recently arrived from France to train his staff. In an office upstairs, his franchising team crunches the numbers on where Haraz should open next.Increasingly, the answer is: everywhere. Nasser, who intends to double his locations to 60 in the next six months, originally sought to open cafes in Arab neighborhoods or near mosques. But his search has expanded to anywhere that’s young and diverse, or where families will linger late into the night and buy multiple rounds of $7.95 pistachio lattes.Chances are, the coffeehouses will wind up just a short distance from another Yemeni cafe.Hamzah Nasser, a former trucker who moved from Yemen at age 6, at the headquarters of Haraz Coffee House.Daniel Ribar for The New York TimesDaniel Ribar for The New York TimesThe headquarters of the Yemeni cafe brand Haraz Coffee House in Dearborn, Mich., where the imported beans are roasted.Daniel Ribar for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed Governor Bowman favors July interest rate cut if inflation stays low

    Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Monday she would favor an interest rate cut at the next policy meeting in July so long as inflation pressures stay muted.
    Bowman’s comments are similar to those from fellow Governor Christopher Waller, who told CNBC on Friday that he also thinks the Fed could consider cutting in July.

    Michelle Bowman, incoming vice chair for supervision at the US Federal Reserve, arrives for a Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy event at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, June 6, 2025.
    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Monday she would favor an interest rate cut at the next policy meeting in July so long as inflation pressures stay muted.
    In remarks for a speech in Prague, Bowman became the second central banker in recent days to suggest that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to have a temporary and muted impact on prices, thus paving the way for lower rates.

    “Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market,” she said in prepared remarks. “In the meantime, I will continue to carefully monitor economic conditions as the Administration’s policies, the economy, and financial markets continue to evolve.”
    Bowman’s comments are similar to those from fellow Governor Christopher Waller, who told CNBC on Friday that he also thinks the Fed could consider cutting in July.
    Trump has been pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates as a way to save financing costs on the nation’s ballooning national debt. However, the Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting last week voted to hold its key interest rate in a target between 4.25%-4.5%.
    For her part, Bowman said she supported the change in approach the post-meeting statement took noting that policy uncertainty has diminished and the focus is now tilting towards potential labor market weakness.
    Economists had worried that Trump’s tariffs would spike inflation, but measures have shown little if any impact so far. At the same time, the president has softened his rhetoric and opened the door to negotiations with major trading partners.

    “I think it is likely that the impact of tariffs on inflation may take longer, be more delayed, and have a smaller effect than initially expected, especially because many firms frontloaded their stocks of inventories,” Bowman said. “As we think about the path forward, it is time to consider adjusting the policy rate.”
    Trump has said he thinks the Fed should lower by at least 2 percentage points. Bowman’s remarks did not mention how much she thinks the rate should be lowered, and Waller said there is no need for such dramatic cuts.
    The FOMC next meets July 29-30. Traders are assigning just a 23% probability to a move at the meeting, with a likelihood of about 78% that the Fed will cut in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge measuring futures market pricing.

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    White House Faces Risk of Economic Fallout From Iran Strike

    President Trump, aware of how high gas prices could affect his popularity, demanded on social media that the U.S. “KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN.”President Trump on Monday began to confront the potential economic blowback from his military strikes on Iran, which threatened to send oil and gas prices soaring at a moment when U.S. consumers are already facing significant financial strains.The mere prospect of rising energy costs appeared to spook even Mr. Trump, who took to social media to push for more domestic drilling while demanding that companies “KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN”; otherwise, they would be “PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY.”“I’M WATCHING!” the president added.By midday Monday, global oil markets appeared relatively muted, two days after Mr. Trump dispatched U.S. bombers on a mission to disable three Iranian nuclear sites. Prices rose over the weekend before ultimately settling, as Washington — and the rest of the world — braced for the possibility that Tehran may still retaliate.In one worst-case scenario, Iranian leaders could look to shutter or otherwise impede access to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that serves as the critical entrance point to the Persian Gulf. The world ships substantial amounts of oil and liquefied natural gas through the passage, so any interruption to commerce could cause energy prices to surge globally.A spike in energy costs could prove especially difficult for American consumers and businesses this summer, given that it could arrive at about the same time that Mr. Trump plans to revive his expansive, steep tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner. Many economists expect those levies to push up prices after years of high inflation.In April, the president announced, then suspended, those sky-high duties, seeking to quell a global market meltdown over his disruptive and legally contested campaign to remake global trade. But Mr. Trump has not wavered in his plan to implement the tariffs on July 9, and many economists expect companies — which pay the duties when they source foreign products — to pass the added costs down to their customers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    No Sting, No Mercedes: A Russian Expo Shows Cost of Divorce With the West

    The annual economic forum in St. Petersburg used to host multibillion-dollar deals and performances by global music stars. With the war in Ukraine still raging, the mood has shifted.During his early years in the Kremlin, President Vladimir V. Putin used the annual economic conference in St. Petersburg as a marquee event to showcase how Russia was becoming a magnet for Western businesses.Multibillion-dollar oil and gas deals were signed, including the agreement to build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany. Western corporate giants such as BP, Chevron, Deutsche Bank and Total sent their chief executives. In 2018, President Emmanuel Macron of France was the guest of honor. In 2011, Sting performed in front of the Winter Palace.But the event, which opened on Wednesday and will run through Saturday, now reflects a Russia fundamentally transformed by Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.The Kingdom of Bahrain was the guest of honor, and the Chinese brand Tank, not Mercedes, was selected as the official car. Instead of executives from Morgan Stanley and Citibank, a delegation of the Taliban roamed the giant exhibition center. And only second-tier Russian pop and rock stars were on show, with no international acts appearing at all.Tank, a Chinese automobile manufacturer, was chosen as the carmaker for the conference. In prior years, it was Mercedes.Dmitri Lovetsky/Associated PressThe conference’s message is that Russia will never again be so reliant on business with the West.Despite newly opened lines of communication between Mr. Putin and President Trump, major American investors once again shunned the conference. The Russia-United States session, billed as dedicated to “identifying shared interests and shaping long-term partnerships,” was open by invitation only.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Trump’s Trade War Has Whipsawed the Port of L.A.

    Normally, the towering green crane in the Everport Terminal at the Port of Los Angeles would be busy unloading hulking container ships. Longshoremen below would flit around in “bomb carts” used to ferry containers from the ship. Big rigs would carry off imported furniture, car parts and clothing to other parts of the country.But on a recent Thursday morning, the 300-foot crane sat idle, a casualty of the tariffs that President Trump has imposed to curb foreign trade. Almost a fifth of the 99 boats that Gene Seroka, the port’s chief executive, had expected to arrive in May were canceled.“It’s a very quiet day,” Mr. Seroka said. “This is the impact that the tariffs have had.”Listen to our reporter’s commentaryAna Swanson visited the Port of Los Angeles last month and found it to be unusually quiet. The job posting board showed 40 percent fewer positions than normal. And the port was running at 70 percent of normal capacity, according to its chief executive.The Port of Los Angeles, along with a nearby facility in Long Beach, makes up a shipping complex that stretches across nearly 75 miles of Southern California shoreline. The ports are a bellwether for trade and the U.S. economy. Together, they move an astonishing 40 percent of the goods that come into the United States via containers. They also account for 30 percent of what the country exports.As Mr. Trump’s chaotic and aggressive tariff strategy has seesawed this year, activity here has, too. That has threatened the livelihood of the roughly 100,000 workers at the port complex and complicated life for the hundreds of thousands of companies that bring goods through the port each year. The trends at the port hint at the pain that will ripple through the broader economy in the coming months, as fewer and higher-priced goods travel from ports and warehouses to American stores and consumers.The ports experienced a surge of activity this year when shippers rushed to bring in goods ahead of tariffs that reached their highest levels in a century. That rush has faded, and trade has become more sluggish. With higher tariffs set to snap back within weeks, both importers and port workers remain cautious, unsure of what their futures will hold.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Fed is likely to keep rates the same but give a forecast that moves markets. What to expect

    While any movement on interest rates seems improbable, the Fed meeting, which concludes Wednesday, will feature important signals that still could move markets.
    Among the biggest things to watch will be the future outlook for interest rates, how officials see inflation trending, and political pressure that has rained on Chair Jerome Powell.
    The meeting comes against a complicated geopolitical backdrop in which the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on inflation has been benign so far but is unclear for the future.

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks during the Division of International Finance 7th Anniversary Conference at the Fed on June 02, 2025 in Washington, DC.
    Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images

    Federal Reserve officials get to voice their outlook this week on the future path of interest rates along with the impact that tariffs and Middle East turmoil will have on the economy.
    While any immediate movement on interest rates seems improbable, the policy meeting, which concludes Wednesday, will feature important signals that still could move markets.

    Among the biggest things to watch will be whether Federal Open Market Committee members stick with their previous forecast of two rate cuts this year, how they see inflation trending, and any reaction from Chair Jerome Powell to what has become a concerted White House campaign for easier monetary policy.
    “The Fed’s main message at the June meeting will be that it remains comfortably in wait-and-see mode,” Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said in a note. BofA said it expects the Fed won’t cut at all this year but will leave open the possibility for one reduction. “Investors should focus on Powell’s take on the softening labor data, the recent benign inflation prints and the risks of persistent tariff-driven inflation.”
    The committee’s “dot plot” grid of individual members’ rate expectations will be front and center for investors.
    At the last update in March, the committee indicated the equivalent of two quarter-percentage-point reductions this year, which is in line with current market pricing. However, that was a close call, and just two participants changing their approach would swing the median forecast down to one cut.
    The meeting comes against a complicated geopolitical backdrop in which the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on inflation has been minimal so far but is unclear for the future. At the same time, Trump and other administration officials have stepped up their urging of the Fed to lower rates.

    On top of that, the Israel-Iran conflict threatens to destabilize the global energy picture, providing yet another variable through which to navigate policy.
    “We expect Chair Powell to repeat his message from the May press conference,” Bhave said. “Policy is in a good place and there is no hurry for the Fed to act.”
    However, the landscape could change quickly.

    Varying economic signals

    While the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, the May nonfarm payrolls report showed a continuing if gradual softening in the labor market. The most recent inflation data also indicated that tariffs have done little to affect prices at least on a macro scale, adding another incentive for the Fed to at least think about easing.
    “We’re in a disinflating world,” former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in a CNBC interview last week. “If it weren’t for these prospective tariffs that will flow through and are flowing through, I think the Fed would be on their front foot looking to cut rates.”

    As things stand heading into the meeting, markets are pricing in the next cut to come in September, which would be the one-year anniversary of a surprisingly aggressive half-percentage-point reduction the FOMC instituted amid concerns over the labor market. The committee added two more quarter-point moves by the end of the year and has been on hold since.
    In the current climate, “trade tensions have diminished somewhat, inflation has been low, and the hard data have shown only limited signs of softening,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote.
    Goldman sees the Fed sticking with its two-cut forecast, but the firm’s economists said they expect ultimately to see only one.
    “We are confident that we are still on track for eventual rate cuts because aside from the tariffs, the inflation news has actually been fairly soft. While an earlier cut is possible, the peak summer tariff effects on the monthly inflation prints will most likely be too fresh for the FOMC to cut before December,” Mericle said.
    Officials also will update their projections for employment, inflation and gross domestic product growth.
    Goldman sees the FOMC taking up the inflation expectation to 3% for all of 2024, 0.2 percentage point higher than March. The firm also sees a slight lowering of GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.7% and a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
    Officials will then use the summer to watch the data and judge from there what it will do later in the year, said Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.
    “We think the FOMC will maintain its wait-and-see posture at its June meeting Wednesday, underline it still expects to learn a lot more about the evolving outlook over the next several months, and continue to point to September as the next decision point on rates,” Guha said in a note. More

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    House Policy Bill Would Add $3.4 Trillion to Debt, Swamping Economic Gains

    The updated findings from the Congressional Budget Office amounted to the latest dour report card for the president’s signature legislation.House Republicans’ sprawling package to cut taxes and slash federal safety-net programs would add about $3.4 trillion to the debt, according to nonpartisan congressional analysts, who reported on Tuesday that the minor gains in economic growth under the bill would not offset its full fiscal impact.The updated findings from the Congressional Budget Office amounted to yet another dour report card for the president’s signature legislation, which passed the House last month but now faces the prospect of significant revisions to its core components in the Senate.In its current form, the House Republican bill would extend and expand a set of expiring tax cuts enacted by President Trump during his first term. It would pay for some of those expensive components with deep cuts to federal anti-poverty programs, including Medicaid and food stamps.The C.B.O. report issued on Tuesday sought to project the ways the bill would interact with federal spending and the U.S. economy, building on its earlier finding that the House-passed measure carried a roughly $2.4 trillion price tag.The nonpartisan analysts found that the House approach, if signed into law, would deliver a 0.09 percent boost to annual growth rate in the nation’s gross domestic product in the first few years after enactment, compared to current projections.The budget office said that lower taxes would spur some American families and businesses to spend and invest more. But it also determined that the uptick in economic activity would not be sufficient to cover the costs of the legislation. Even after factoring in spending cuts, the proposal would still add nearly $2.8 trillion to federal deficits over the next 9 years, according to the official tally from C.B.O. The figure grows to about $3.4 trillion if the full costs of federal borrowing are included.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More