Evelyn Reynolds

Western-style boot sales climbed more than 20% the week after Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” was released late last month, Circana reported.
Retailers and industry analysts have already taken note of the trend.
Though cowboy boots may typify the Western look, other pieces, including denim, can also ride the wave.

Beyoncé leaves the Luar fashion show at 154 Scott in Brooklyn during New York Fashion Week on Feb. 13, 2024.
James Devaney | GC Images | Getty Images

Western boots have a new protector in Beyoncé.
The country fashion staple’s sales surged more than 20% in the week after the music superstar released her “Cowboy Carter” album, according to consumer behavior firm Circana. That can spell good news for companies making the iconic shoe, as well as other items that fit the same Wild West aesthetic.

“Cowboy Carter,” which came out late last month, marked the “Halo” singer’s foray into the country genre. Even before the full album dropped, Circana reported notable boosts to unit sales for this style of boot following the release of singles “Texas Hold ‘Em” and “16 Carriages.”
The 32-time Grammy winner’s latest project adds to a groundswell of cultural support for stagecoach-inspired styles. Louis Vuitton unveiled an American Western line during Paris Fashion Week earlier this year, featuring models in everything from cowboy hats to bolo ties. This look has also caught a bid through the ongoing Eras Tour, as some attendees opt to channel Taylor Swift’s pre-pop days as a country singer.
Retailers and industry followers have already taken note of the trend.
Beyoncé’s chart-topping album can provide a same-store sales bump and help lasso in women shoppers at Boot Barn, said Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser. He upgraded his rating on the California-based retailer to buy on Thursday and raised his price target by $33 to $113, which now implies an upside of about 12%.

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Boot Barn, Year to Date

Adding to the momentum is the beginning of busy seasons for rodeos and music festivals, Poser said. With these positive trends, he said guidance for the current quarter and full fiscal year should exceed Wall Street consensus estimates.

“We have little doubt that there is a correlation” between the increased attention on Western clothing and the release of Beyoncé’s eighth studio album, Poser said.
Boot Barn shares have climbed more than 4% since the start of April, defying the broader market’s pullback. That adds to the stock’s rally over the course of 2024, with shares jumping about 30% compared with the start of the year.

‘Really trending’

Though cowboy boots may typify the Western look, other pieces can also ride the wave.
Levi Strauss CEO Michelle Gass told analysts earlier this month that the denim maker works to ensure the “brand remains in the center of culture.” That mission was aided by “Levii’s Jeans,” a song on the “Cowboy Carter” album featuring Post Malone.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

“I don’t think there’s any better evidence or proof point than having someone like Beyoncé, who is a culture shaper, to actually name a song after us,” Gass said on the company’s earnings call last week.
Gass said denim is “having a moment” and the Western style is “really trending,” including in fashion and music.
But denim suppliers have not been able to sidestep the recent market slide. Levi Strauss shares have dropped more than 3% in April. Kontoor Brands, whose styles under the Wrangler brand include a “cowboy cut” jean, has tumbled around 11% in the month.

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expects the Fed to do some reductions this year, while it may have to concede that inflation will remain elevated.
Fed officials have expressed reluctance to start cutting until they see more convincing evidence that the pace of price increases is heading back to target.

DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – DECEMBER 04: Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, speaks at a roundtable discussion titled: “Financing the New Climate Economy,” during which he described the urgent need for a “new financial landscape” for funding investments into the global energy transition on day five of the UNFCCC COP28 Climate Conference at Expo City Dubai on December 04, 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The COP28, which is running from November 30 through December 12, is bringing together stakeholders, including international heads of state and other leaders, scientists, environmentalists, indigenous peoples representatives, activists and others to discuss and agree on the implementation of global measures towards mitigating the effects of climate change. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicted Friday that the Federal Reserve likely will still cut interest rates this year but won’t meet its inflation target.
With markets on edge over the direction of monetary policy, the head of the world’s largest money manager said it’s unlikely the central bank will hit its 2% goal anytime soon. A report earlier this week showed inflation running at a 3.5% annual rate.

Still, Fink expects the Fed to do some reductions this year while it may have to concede that inflation will remain elevated.
“When everybody said we’re going to have six cuts earlier this year, from noted economists, I said maybe two,” Fink said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “I’m still saying maybe two.”
Though that forecast was out of consensus in January and February, it’s consistent with the recalibrated market expectations since hot inflation readings became prevalent this year. Fed officials have expressed reluctance to start cutting until they see more convincing evidence that the pace of price increases is heading back to target.
But Fink said the central bank may have its sights set too high, or too low as the case might be for inflation.
“Inflation has moderated and we’ve always said inflation is going to moderate. But is it going to moderate to that terminal rate the Federal Reserve is looking for? I feel doubtful,” he said. “Do I believe that we could get a stable inflation between 2.8% and 3%? I’d call it a day and a win.”
Fink spoke the same day BlackRock reported quarterly earnings that topped Wall Street expectations both for profit and revenue. The company also said its assets under management hit a record of $10.5 trillion.

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The U.K. economy grew 0.1% in February, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That follows 0.2% growth in January, which economists said provided a strong indication the U.K. will exit recession at the start of the year.
Gross domestic product fell in the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

People shelters from the rain beneath a Union flag-themed umbrella as they walk past spring flowers in blossom, in St James’s Park in central London on April 10, 2024.
Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images

LONDON — U.K. gross domestic product rose 0.1% in February, the Office for National Statistics said Friday, providing another sign of a return to sluggish economic growth this year.
The month-on-month figure was in line with a projection in a Reuters poll. On an annual basis, GDP was 0.2% lower.

The economy contracted in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, putting the U.K. in a technical recession.
January recorded light growth, which was revised upward to 0.3% on Friday.
Construction output, which boosted growth at the start of the year, fell 1.9% in February. Instead, production output was the biggest contributor to the GDP, rising by 1.1% in February, while growth in the U.K.’s dominant services sector slowed to 0.1% from 0.3%.
The reading “all-but confirms the recession ended” last year, Paul Dales, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
“But while we expect a better economic recovery than most, we doubt it will be strong enough to prevent inflation (and interest rates) from falling much further as appears to be happening in the U.S.,” Dales added.

British inflation fell more than expected in March, to a nearly 2½-year low of 3.4%.
In the U.S., however, price rises came in higher than forecast at 3.5% this week, pushing back market bets for the start of interest rate cuts from the summer to September.
This has raised questions about whether central banks elsewhere will be influenced by a later start from the Federal Reserve than previously expected, particularly if the U.S. dollar strengthens.
Goldman Sachs on Friday revised its forecast for Bank of England rate cuts this year from five to four, projecting the trims will start in June, before slowing to a quarterly pace.
Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday that while the BOE is independent, policymakers will nevertheless be conscious of an upcoming U.K. national election, which politicians have suggested will be held in the second half of the year.
“Do you get [cuts] out of the way ahead of that general election? There is quite a lot of pressure from the governing party, not necessarily the prime minister but the chancellor has talked about expecting rate cuts.”
Overall, French said the figures strongly indicated the end of the recession but were “not a reason to hang out the bunting.”
Growth is below its pre-pandemic trend and lagging the U.S. but is on a par with much of Europe and showed signs of a pick-up in areas such as manufacturing and car production, French added. More

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that “persistent” inflation, “terrible wars and violence” and the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions threaten an otherwise positive economic backdrop.
“Looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces,” the head of the the largest U.S. bank by assets said in announcing first-quarter earnings results.

JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., December 6, 2023. 
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that multiple challenges, primarily inflation and war, threaten an otherwise positive economic backdrop.
“Many economic indicators continue to be favorable,” the head of the the largest U.S. bank by assets said in announcing first-quarter earnings results. “However, looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces.”

An “unsettling” global landscape including “terrible wars and violence” is one such factor introducing uncertainty both into JPMorgan’s business and the broader economy, Dimon said.
Along with that, he noted “persistent inflationary pressures, which may likely continue.”
Finally, on a somewhat related note, he noted the Federal Reserve’s efforts to draw down the assets it is holding on its $7.5 trillion balance sheet.
“We have never truly experienced the full effect of quantitative tightening on this scale,” Dimon said.
The latter comment references the nickname given to a process the Fed is employing to reduce the level of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities it is holding.

The central bank is allowing up to $95 billion in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month rather than reinvesting them, resulting in a $1.5 trillion contraction in holdings since June 2022. The program is part of the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions in hopes of alleviating inflationary pressures.
Though the Fed is expected to slow down the pace of QT in the next few months, the balance sheet will continue to contract.
Taken together, Dimon said the three issues pose substantial unknowns ahead.
“We do not know how these factors will play out, but we must prepare the Firm for a wide range of potential environments to ensure that we can consistently be there for clients,” he said.
Dimon’s comments come amid renewed worries over inflation. Though the pace of price increases has come well off the boil from its June 2022 peak, data so far in 2024 has shown inflation consistently higher than expectations and well above the Fed’s 2% annual goal.
As a result, markets have had to dramatically shift their expectations for interest rate reductions. Where markets at the beginning of the year had been looking for up to seven cuts, or 1.75 percentage points, the expectation now is for only one or two that would total at most half a percentage point.
Higher rates are generally considered positive for banks as long as they don’t lead to a recession. JPMorgan on Friday reported an 8% boost to revenue in the first quarter, attributable to stronger interest income and higher loan balances. However, the bank warned net interest income for this year could be slightly below what Wall Street is expecting and shares were off nearly 2% in premarket trading. More

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, March 7, 2024. 
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, as anticipation builds for rate cuts in June.
“If the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction,” it said in a statement.

In a press conference following the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde said this “important” new sentence was a “loud and clear indication” of the bank’s current sentiment.
The ECB made no direct reference to loosening monetary policy in its previous communiques.
The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro currency hiked its key rate to a record 4% in September. It has left this rate unchanged at every gathering since.
Policymakers and economists have zeroed in on June as the month when rates could start to be reduced, after the ECB trimmed its medium-term inflation forecast. Price rises in the euro zone have since cooled more than expected in March.
June will also be the first month when policymakers will have a full set of data on first quarter wage negotiations — an area of concern for potential inflationary effects.

The ECB on Thursday said incoming information had “broadly confirmed” its medium-term outlook, with falling inflation led by lower food and goods.
Market pricing suggests a 25-basis-point cut in June, according to LSEG data.
“For a while now, the ECB has essentially pre-committed to a June cut. There is a high bar for this not to be delivered. But there is a wide range of possible outcomes in the subsequent months, depending on further progress with disinflation. So far, the data is moving in the doves’ favour,” said Hussain Mehdi, director of investment strategy at HSBC Asset Management, in a note.

In the U.S., expectations for a summer rate cut from the Federal Reserve were significantly curtailed by inflation data coming in higher than forecast on Wednesday.
This has raised questions over how European central banks will respond to developments in the world’s largest economy.
Asked Thursday about whether the U.S. consumer price index figures could impact the ECB’s rate cut trajectory, Lagarde said: “Obviously, anything that happens matters to us and will in due course be embedded in the projection that will be prepared and released in June. The United States is a very large market, a very sizeable economy, a major financial sector as well.”
She declined to specify whether the euro’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar would factor into policymaking.
But in comments reported by Reuters that proceeded the ECB’s decision, Sweden’s central bank Deputy Governor Per Jansson on Thursday said that if the Fed rules out rate cuts in 2024, it could present a “problem” for both the Riksbank and the ECB.
In the case of the Riksbank, this would be due to the weakening of the Swedish krona fueling inflation, Jansson said in a speech.
European data continues to move toward the 2% inflation target, keeping the ECB on track for a June cut – but the pace and extent of further cuts this year “could be more sensitive to U.S. data and Fed policy,” Andrew Benito, chief European economist at Eisler Capital, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro ahead of the rate announcement. More

The producer price index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.
However, on a 12-month basis, PPI rose 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023, indicating pipeline pressures that could keep inflation elevated.
initial filings for jobless benefits fell to 211,000, a decline of 11,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and below the 217,000 estimate.

A measure of wholesale prices increased less than expected in March, providing some potential relief from worries that inflation will hold higher for longer than many economists had expected.
The producer price index increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus and not as much as the 0.6% increase in February, according to a release Thursday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

However, on a 12-month basis, PPI rose 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023, indicating pipeline pressures that could keep inflation elevated.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI also rose 0.2%, meeting expectations. Excluding trade services from the core level, the increase was 0.2% monthly but 2.8% from a year ago.
The release comes a day after the BLS reported that consumer prices again rose more than expected in March, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will be unable to lower interest rates anytime soon.
On the producer price side, March’s gain was pushed by services, which saw a 0.3% increase on the month. Within that category, the index for securities brokerage and other investment-related fees jumped 3.1%.
Conversely, goods prices decreased 0.1%, flipping a 1.2% increase in February. Final demand costs for energy, which has been on the rise lately, actually fell 1.6% on the month. However, wholesale prices for final demand food and goods less food and energy climbed 0.8% and 0.1% respectively.

Though prices have been rising at the pump, the final demand index for gasoline fell 3.6%. That contrasted with the consumer price index, which showed gasoline up 1.7% on the month.
Markets showed little reaction to the data, with futures tied to major stock indexes slightly higher though Treasury yields declined.
In other economic news Thursday, initial filings for jobless benefits fell to 211,000, a decline of 11,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and below the 217,000 estimate from Dow Jones.
Continuing claims, which run a week behind, increased to 1.82 million, up 28,000 for the period, according to the Labor Department release.
The economic data points are being watched closely as Federal Reserve contemplates its next moves on monetary policy.
Wednesday’s CPI release jolted markets, which had been anticipating an aggressive series of interest rate cuts this year. The report showed annual inflation running at 3.5%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The market now is pricing in the possibility of just two cuts this year, likely not starting until September, according to CME Group data. More