More stories

  • in

    NYSE president says the appeal of the public market has 'never been more alive and well'

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    Companies are eager to go public but are holding back due to the uncertainty in the market, NYSE President Lynn Martin told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday.
    “The companies that I talk to, those companies who are private, the public market currency has never been more alive and well,” Martin said in an interview on “Mad Money.”

    Companies are eager to go public but are holding back due to the uncertainty in the market, NYSE President Lynn Martin told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday.
    “It’s on pause. The reason it’s on pause is because of all the volatility that you see in the market. But you know, the companies that I talk to, those companies who are private, the public market currency has never been more alive and well,” Martin said in an interview on “Mad Money.”

    The number of global IPOs, or initial public offerings, declined 54% in the second quarter year-over-year, according to a report from EY. The Americas region saw the biggest drop with a 73% decrease in deals.
    U.S. stocks have seesawed this year as skyrocketing inflation, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases and the Russia-Ukraine war have led investors to sell holdings. Wall Street is now looking to the Fed’s meeting this week, which many investors expect will lead to a 75 basis point rate increase.
    Martin said that the lull in public listings is indicative of the current market environment, not the companies’ willingness to gain new shareholders.
    “They want to use that public market currency to grow their business, invest in R&D, acquire new businesses, take their businesses in directions that they can’t even fathom right now. But they’re not going to do it in a period when there’s tremendous volatility in the market,” she said.
    Sign up now for the CNBC Investing Club to follow Jim Cramer’s every move in the market.

    Disclaimer

    Questions for Cramer?Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
    Want to take a deep dive into Cramer’s world? Hit him up!Mad Money Twitter – Jim Cramer Twitter – Facebook – Instagram
    Questions, comments, suggestions for the “Mad Money” website? [email protected]

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • in

    Jim Cramer’s week ahead: Fed's actions could lead to market rally with big earnings on deck

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday told investors that the Federal Reserve’s actions this week could lead to a bull market.
    “If [Fed Chair] Jerome Powell says we’re getting a 75-basis point rate hike and then we’ll see what happens … then you might get a rip-snorting rally,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Monday told investors that the Federal Reserve’s actions this week could lead to a bull market.
    “If [Fed Chair] Jerome Powell says, ‘we’re getting a 75 basis point rate hike and then we’ll see what happens’ … then you might get a rip-snorting rally,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    “On the other hand, if he says we’re doing the triple-rate hike and then we’re willing to keep tightening no matter what, including a possible inter-meeting hike if the CPI stays hot, then we are definitely going lower,” he added, referring to June’s hotter-than expected 9.1% inflation reading.
    The Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday, and many analysts expect a 75 basis point rate hike. 
    Cramer also previewed this week’s slate of earnings. All earnings and revenue estimates are courtesy of FactSet.
    Tuesday: General Electric, Alphabet, Microsoft
    General Electric

    Q2 2022 earnings release at 6:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 8 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: 37 cents
    Projected revenue: $17.36 billion

    Cramer said he’s not bullish on GE – yet.
    Alphabet

    Q2 2022 earnings release at 4 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $1.27
    Projected revenue: $69.87 billion

    Microsoft

    Q4 2022 earnings release at 4:05 p.m. ET; conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $2.29
    Projected revenue: $52.39 billion

    Cramer said he believes both Alphabet and Microsoft could have standout quarters.
    Wednesday: Boeing, Meta, Ford, ServiceNow
    Boeing

    Q2 2022 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 10:30 a.m. ET
    Projected loss: loss of 13 cents per share
    Projected revenue: $17.57 billion

    He said he’s doubtful that Boeing will report a solid quarter given the ongoing worker strikes and no federal go-ahead for its 787 Dreamliner commercial jets.
    Meta

    Q2 2022 earnings release at 4:05 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $2.55
    Projected revenue: $28.92 billion

    Meta will likely report an earnings beat and forecast cut, Cramer predicted. “Once the expectations get low enough, though, for the metaverse, then the stock becomes a solid buy,” he said.
    Ford

    Q2 2022 earnings release at 4:05 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: 45 cents
    Projected revenue: $37.20 billion

    Cramer believes the carmaker will report that it’s sold out of many models.
    ServiceNow

    Q2 2022 earnings release at 4:10 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $1.55
    Projected revenue: $1.76 billion

    “We had CEO Bill McDermott on last month, and he talked about tougher times in Europe. His stock got hit hard in response — now we’ll find out if that was an overreaction,” he said.
    Thursday: Apple, Amazon
    Apple

    Q3 2022 earnings release at 4:30 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $1.16
    Projected revenue: $82.73 billion

    “Own it, don’t trade it,” Cramer said.
    Amazon

    Q2 2022 earnings release at 4 p.m. ET; conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET
    Projected EPS: 12 cents
    Projected revenue: $118.98 billion

    Cramer said Amazon’s stock price could open “very low” at Tuesday’s market open after Walmart cut its profit outlook Monday, dragging the e-commerce giant’s stock down after-hours.
    Friday: Chevron, Procter & Gamble
    Chevron

    Q2 2022 earnings release at tbd time; conference call at 11 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $5.08 
    Projected revenue; $58.66 billion

    Cramer said he believes Chevron will deliver great results in its latest quarter, even if analysts are growing increasingly skeptical of the company’s ability to perform.
    Procter & Gamble

    Q4 2022 earnings release at 6:55 a.m. ET; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
    Projected EPS: $1.22
    Projected revenue: $19.41 billion

    “If Procter comes in, I’d treat that as a buying opportunity — after it reports though,” Cramer said.
    Disclosure: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Chevron, Ford, Meta, Microsoft and Procter & Gamble.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • in

    Stock futures fall after Walmart cuts forecast, says inflation hit consumer spending

    U.S. stock futures fell on Monday night after Walmart cut its profit forecast, sending retail stocks tumbling after hours.
    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 134 points, or 0.42%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.31% and 0.38%, respectively.

    A late Monday announcement from Walmart, which cut its quarterly and full-year profit estimates because of rising food inflation, alarmed investors who deliberated the implications for other retail stocks. The big-box retailer said higher prices are spurring consumers to pull back on general merchandise spending, particularly in apparel.
    Walmart plunged nearly 9% in extended trading, and dragged other retailers with it. Target dropped 5% and Amazon fell 4%. Macy’s and Dollar General each declined 3%, while Costco shed 2%.
    “Clearly, they have the wrong stuff, and they have to sell it more aggressively to clear that out, which looks like it’s going to take a pretty dramatic hit as a result of that,” Jeremy Bryan, senior portfolio manager at Gradient Investments, said during CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”
    “The question is, how does this relate to the rest of the discretionary space?” Bryan added.
    Stocks during Monday’s session traded in a narrow range, with the S&P 500 adding 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 90.75 points, or 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged, sliding 0.4%. All of the major averages are on track for their best month of the year.

    Traders are bracing for an onslaught of mega-cap tech earnings and economic data this week, as well as the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, that will help Wall Street direct its expectations for the rest of the year.
    “I think that there’s going to be a bifurcated market,” VantageRock Capital’s Avery Sheffield said during CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.” “I think the bottom might be in certain stocks, but nowhere in others. So this actually could be one of the most dynamic earnings seasons we’ve seen in a long time.”
    On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will commence its two-day policy meeting. Traders are widely expecting a three-quarter percentage point hike.
    Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and General Motors are set to report earnings Tuesday before the bell. Alphabet, Microsoft, Chipotle Mexican Grill, UPS and Enphase Energy will report after the bell.
    On the economic front, traders are expecting the latest reading of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9 a.m. ET. The consumer confidence report and new home sales data are due out at 10 a.m. ET.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • in

    Walmart cuts profit outlook as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on necessities

    Walmart shares fell after the company cut its profit expectations as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on food and less on electronics and other discretionary categories.
    CEO Doug McMillon said aggressive markdowns on items such as clothing are also hurting margins.
    Walmart shares fell, as did the stocks of other retailers, including Target, and e-commerce giant Amazon.

    Walmart on Monday cut its quarterly and full-year profit guidance, saying inflation is causing shoppers to spend more on necessities such as food and less on items like clothing and electronics.
    That shift in spending has left more items on store shelves and warehouses — forcing the big-box retailer to aggressively mark down items that customers don’t want.

    The company’s stock fell in after-hours trading following the announcement. Shares of other retailers, including Target and e-commerce giant Amazon, also fell.
    Walmart said it now anticipates adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter and full year to to decline around 8% to 9% and 11% to 13%, respectively. It had previously expected them to be flat to up slightly for the second quarter and to drop by about 1% for the full year.

    Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Inflation has grown at the fastest pace in four decades. As consumers face higher prices at the gas pump, grocery store and restaurants, some consumers are choosing where to spend money and where to pull back. In some cases, they are prioritizing experiences they missed during the pandemic — such as splurging on a vacation or dinner at a restaurant.
    Walmart, which is the biggest grocer in the U.S. and often considered a bellwether for the overall economy, said more customers are turning to its stores, which are known for low prices, to fill their pantries and fridges. But they are skipping over general merchandise that they can live without.
    Walmart said it now expects same-store sales in the U.S. to rise by about 6% in the second quarter, excluding fuel, as customers buy more food at its stores. That’s higher than the 4% to 5% increase that the company previously expected.

    However, that merchandise mix will weigh on the company. Groceries have lower profit margins than discretionary items, such as TVs and clothing.
    “The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars,” CEO Doug McMillon said in a news release.
    He said the company is seeing strong back-to-school sales in the U.S., but anticipates people will pull back on buying general merchandise in the second half of the year. That could be warning sign for retailers ahead of the holiday shopping season.
    The sharp change in consumer spending could jeopardize other aspects of Walmart’s strategy, too. The company wants grow its subscription service, Walmart+, but that could be a tougher sell if Americans scour their bills for fees to cut. It has launched a growing number of general merchandise brands, particularly in apparel and home, which could now wind up on the clearance rack.
    Yet McMillon has said Walmart can gain market share and more of customers’ wallets during the inflationary period by emphasizing good value. Over the past several quarters, he has stressed that the discounter will keep prices low.
    Target also slashed its forecast for the second quarter. Last month, the retailer said its profit margins would take a hit as it canceled orders and marked down merchandise. The company largely attributed the revised forecast to having too much merchandise, including a lot of bulky items such as small home appliances that saw a drop in demand.
    Shares of Walmart fell over 9% after hours. Target was down by more than 6%. Amazon fell more than 3%. Macy’s, Kohl’s and Nordstrom each slipped more than 3% after hours, as investors looked to get out of stocks that sell primarily apparel and home goods. Gap dropped around 2%.
    Walmart will report its fiscal second quarter results Aug. 16.
    Read the full Walmart release here.
    — CNBC’s Lauren Thomas contributed to this report.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More

  • in

    Walmart's profit warning shows inflation is still a big problem. Here's our take

    Walmart (WMT) cut both its second-quarter and full-year profit guidance after the closing bell Monday, sending shares tumbling nearly 10% in extended trading and dragging down shares of other retailers, too. Walmart is due to report second-quarter results on Aug. 16. Bottom line Our primary takeaway from Walmart’s pre-announcement — its second outlook adjustment since reporting fourth quarter results in February — is that retail operators who struggled with inflation last quarter and had the wrong inventory due to changes in consumer spending habits are still struggling. One would have thought that a Walmart guidance cut was already priced into the stock after rival retailer Target (TGT) said in early June it was marking down excess inventory and taking a hit to profits to do so. Moreover, we already knew that Club holding Walmart had discounted a significant amount of inventory. However, Monday’s after-hours reaction to the Walmart news shows you that new bad news is still bad news for big box retail. On the other hand, we think Club holding Costco (COST) is navigating these challenges much better than Walmart and Target based on the members-only warehouse giant’s monthly sales data and a recent CNBC interview with CEO Craig Jelinek . The news According to its press release late Monday, Walmart now expects adjusted earnings per share to decline between 8% and 9% in the second quarter and between 11% and 13% for fiscal 2023. Walmart’s prior second-quarter EPS guidance was “flat to up slightly,” while it previously expected full-year EPS to decline by about 1%. That prior guidance was issued in May, when Walmart reported disappointing first quarter earnings and also revised lower the earnings guidance it had offered to investors in February. Here’s the timeline: As we wrote in February , after its better-than-expected fourth quarter, Walmart’s full-year guidance signaled bumps ahead. Then in May , after that terrible first quarter, Walmart disappointed shareholders when it lowered its full-year profit forecast, crushing the stock that day. The primary issue for Walmart is a changing sales mix. Inflation is pinching consumers, forcing them to allocate more income to necessities such as food and fuel, leaving less available for higher margin discretionary purchases. That dynamic is being compounded by Walmart’s wrong-for-the-moment inventory, which has prompted the retailer to markdown items to get them off the racks and shelves. The change in mix is how Walmart on Monday could actually revise higher its consolidated net sales growth for both Q2 and fiscal 2023 — but at the same time slash its earnings outlook. Put another way, the overall dollar value of what Walmart is selling is going up, but it is selling less profitable items. Walmart’s new consolidated net sales guidance is for 7.5% growth in Q2 and 4.5% growth fiscal 2023. Previously, the Arkansas-based retailer called for over 5% and roughly 4% growth, respectively. The one silver lining of the preannouncement is that it could speak to the fact that the Federal Reserve is winning its war on inflation. While the aggressive markdowns may not be good for Walmart, it is good for the consumer and speaks to prices possibly coming down after a period of inflation the likes of which we haven’t seen in roughly 40 years. Given that inflation is the primary concern on investors’ minds, the news is not good for Walmart but possibly a positive for the broader economy. Only time will tell but we will get two key updates this week on the macroeconomic front in the form of the Fed meeting on Wednesday and the advanced second-quarter GDP release on Thursday. — We’ll provide additional analysis in Jim Cramer’s “Morning Thoughts” dispatch and during Tuesday’s “Morning Meeting” livestream for Club members. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WMT and COST. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

    Vehicles in a parking lot at a Walmart store in Torrance, California, US, on Sunday, May 15, 2022.
    Bing Guan | Bloomberg | Getty Images More

  • in

    13 of our companies report earnings this week. Here's what Wall Street expects

    The busiest earnings week of the summer is here — oh, and the Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest rates Wednesday afternoon as the U.S. central bank tries tame the hottest inflation in four decades. Don’t forget the first look at second-quarter gross domestic product Thursday morning. That’s when we find out if the U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter — usually a major factor in declaring a recession. There’s a lot happening. All in all, against this hectic backdrop, more than a third of the 33 companies in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, which is the portfolio we use for the Club, are scheduled to report quarterly earnings this week. Big picture After a dismal first six months of 2022, stocks have performed better in July. All three major U.S. stock benchmarks are in the green so far this month, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq’ s gain of nearly 7%. The S & P 500 is up over 4.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced nearly 4%. Some on Wall Street are skeptical about the rally and whether it has legs. Nevertheless, this week’s slate of corporate earnings will offer bullish and bearish investors alike further updates on major concerns that have weighed on stocks, including the prospect of a potential recession. What we hear from companies this week could influence the near-term direction of the stock market — good or bad. As earnings flood in, there are three things we think members should especially watch out for: any mentions of inflation and/or strong U.S. dollar headwinds as well as whether management teams issue conservative guidance. We took an in-depth look at each in a story published earlier Monday . Here’s a schedule of everything on the docket starting Tuesday, along with some of the broad themes and company-specific updates we’re looking for in each print. We’ll also provide earnings and revenue consensus estimates, as compiled by FactSet, for all 13 Club stocks that are set to report this week. As we explained in our overview on doing investment homework , earnings estimates can be valuable to have on hand when one of your portfolio companies reports. The reason is that they can influence how the market reacts to the quarterly results and, by extension, how a company’s stock may trade in the near term. And don’t forget to listen on the post-earnings conference calls . Tuesday: Alphabet and Microsoft 1. Alphabet (GOOGL) Second-quarter results after the close; conference call set for 5 p.m. ET Projected EPS: $1.27 Projected revenue: $69.87 billion Club’s thoughts: We’re really looking to see how well Alphabet’s digital advertising business held up, knowing smaller players like Snap (SNAP) have struggled. Alphabet — thanks to Google Search ads, in particular — is the largest player in the digital ad industry, so it may be not have seen as much weakness as Snap. We went in-depth on that Friday . We’ll also be curious to see how the growth rate of Google Cloud fared, but perhaps to a slightly lesser extent than in the recent past, given all the focus on the ad slowdown. Analysts are looking for Google Cloud revenue of $6.41 billion, according to StreetAccount. 2. Microsoft (MSFT) Fiscal fourth-quarter results after the bell; conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET Projected EPS: $2.29 Projected revenue: $52.39 billion Club’s thoughts: While cloud won’t be our primary focus with Alphabet, it will be a huge focus for Microsoft and its Azure business. Analysts polled by StreetAccount are looking Azure revenue growth of 46.8% on a constant currency basis. Relatedly, keep in mind Microsoft has already warned the strong U.S. dollar would take a bite out of Q4 earnings. Microsoft only provides its guidance during the conference call, so be patient with this one and be skeptical of any immediate stock reaction before guidance is actually given. Wednesday: Humana, Qualcomm, Ford and Meta 3. Humana (HUM) Second-quarter earnings release before the bell: conference call at 9 a.m. ET Projected EPS: $7.67 Projected revenue: $23.45 billion Club’s thoughts: Health insurer Humana has been one of the defensive stocks we added to our portfolio this year. After its strong first-quarter results, we’re looking for more indication the company has worked past its Medicare Advantage membership growth struggles and continues to make progress on its $1 billion value creation program. HUM was our second best performer in the second quarter. 4. Qualcomm (QCOM) Third-quarter earnings release after the close; conference call set for 4:45 p.m. ET Projected EPS: $2.89 Projected sales: $10.86 billion Club’s thoughts: We’re wondering whether there may be any positive changes to Qualcomm’s longer-term guidance related to a closely watched analyst’s prediction last month that Qualcomm will remain the exclusive supplier of 5G modem chips in Apple’s 2023 iPhone model. More generally, we’re looking for commentary on smartphone demand and progress on Qualcomm’s revenue diversification strategy. 5. Ford Motor (F) Second-quarter earnings after the bell; conference call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET Projected EPS: 45 cents Projected revenue: $37.2 billion Club’s thoughts: We got some very solid news on Ford’s EV battery strategy Thursday, which we analyzed in full last week. With earnings this week, we’re hoping to hear management provide fresh commentary on where things stand with semiconductor supply chains, commodity costs, and auto loan delinquencies. 6. Meta Platforms (META) Second-quarter earnings after the close; conference call set for 5 p.m. ET Projected EPS: $2.55 Projected revenue: $28.92 billion Club’s thoughts: Like with Alphabet, Meta’s digital ad business provides better return-on-investment than platforms like Snap. While that should make it more resilient, relatively speaking, to the industry slowdown, Meta’s ad revenue for Q2 and its forward guidance remain very important. We’re also curious whether the Facebook and Instagram parent will trim its expense outlook even more than it did when announcing Q1 results in April. Thursday: Honeywell, Linde, Amazon and Apple 7. Honeywell International (HON) Second-quarter results before the bell; conference call set for 8:30 a.m. ET Projected EPS: $2.03 Projected sales: $8.67 billion Club’s thoughts: We’re looking to hear how Honeywell’s sizable aerospace segment is doing, as that industry recovers from its pandemic-related slump. Bank of America estimates that the oil and gas end market is about 12% of Honeywell’s business, too, so we’re also curious how strength in that industry is impacting Honeywell. 8. Linde (LIN) Second-quarter earnings release before the open; conference call slated for 9 a.m. ET Projected EPS: $2.96 Projected revenue: $8.36 billion Club’s thoughts: We’ve viewed Linde as an inflation hedge because of two qualities the industrial gas and engineering firm has. The first is that its products are a crucial component in the supply chain of other products, and second is the company’s contracts with customers give it the ability to pass through costs. That’s why we are interested in hearing how the company is navigating surging energy prices in Europe. Given Linde’s presence in so many key end markets, we’ll be looking for any commentary on the conference call that could inform our view on other companies or macro issues; that’s what we call “a read-through” from the call. 9. Amazon (AMZN) Second-quarter earnings after the close; conference call set for 5:30 p.m. ET Projected EPS: 12 cents Projected revenue: $118.98 billion Club’s thoughts: With concerns about a recession and a pullback in business spending, how is revenue growth at the company’s cash cow, Amazon Web Services, holding up? Beyond Amazon’s results themselves, we’ll be closely listening for updates on how management is correcting the e-commerce giant’s overexpansion issues. Anything management says on supply chain and fuel costs, two other headwinds recently for Amazon, will also be of interest. 10. Apple (AAPL) Third-quarter results after the bell; conference call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET Projected EPS: $1.16 Projected revenue: $82.73 billion Club’s thoughts: Apple is the last Big Tech company in our portfolio to report this earnings season. While we think these third-quarter results could be a little weak, thanks to China-related supply and demand issues, management’s forward outlook is very important. In particular, we’re looking for updates on supply chains and any hints on how iPhone demand is faring in the face of economic slowdown worries. Friday: Procter & Gamble, Chevron and AbbVie 11. Procter & Gamble (PG) Fourth-quarter results before the open; conference call at 9 a.m. ET Projected EPS: $1.22 Projected sales: $19.41 billion Club’s thoughts: Inflationary pressure on input costs and the impact of the strong U.S. dollar are two headwinds that could weigh on P & G’s earnings and forward outlook. We want to see how management is navigating those issues — and for inputs in particular, if they see any relief on the horizon. We also hope to learn whether P & G has observed consumers trading down to cheaper alternatives to its products. 12. Chevron (CVX) Second-quarter earnings before the bell; conference call at 11 a.m. ET Projected EPS: $5.08 Projected revenue: $58.66 billion Club’s thoughts: While oil prices have come off their early June highs, we expect Chevron to support tremendous free cash flow figures for Q2. We also know Chevron can still generate tons of cash and return large chunks of it to shareholders at crude’s recent levels in the mid-to-upper $90s per barrel and low $100s per barrel. Our investment in Chevron is largely about the capital return story, so we’ll be paying close attention to anything and everything management says on the topic. Insights into energy markets more broadly, and the impact from the Russia-Ukraine war, will be notable. We made two trades Monday in energy stocks, booking some profits in shares of Chevron and buying some more shares of Halliburton (HAL). Neither move reflects our feelings on CVX ahead of its quarter, they were portfolio management steps that reflect our view that oil stocks are an important hedge. Though net-net, these trades reduced our energy exposure a bit. 13. AbbVie (ABBV) Second-quarter earnings before the open; conference call set for 9 a.m. ET Projected EPS: $3.33 Projected sales: $14.67 billion Club’s thoughts: Our focus will primarily be about gauging what AbbVie’s post-2023 growth outlook is because that’s when its blockbuster drug Humira will lose its exclusivity in the U.S. The company is leaning on two the other drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, to fill the void when Humira, which is used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and other conditions, goes off-patent. Abbvie’s medical aesthetics franchise is another important watch item. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long MSFT, GOOGL, HUM, META, QCOM, F, LIN, HON, AAPL, AMZN, PG, CVX, HAL and ABBV . See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on January 18, 2022 in New York City. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 500 points in morning trading as investors weigh quarterly earnings and other economic news in a shortened trading week.
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images More

  • in

    State-run oil giants will make or break the energy transition

    Climate activists love to vilify ExxonMobil and Shell. These and other private-sector energy companies have been on the receiving end of proxy battles, legal challenges and other forms of pressure to force them to dump oil and gas in favour of renewable energy and other green technologies. The supermajors certainly make for an attractive target: they have ubiquitous distribution networks, well-known brands susceptible to consumer boycotts. Such pressure is often welcome—in the fight against global warming every little counts. But in the oil market the private sector counts for less than you might think. Whether the energy transition can succeed will depend in large part on the behaviour of the world’s state-led oil behemoths.If the supermajors are big oil then national oil companies (nocs in industry lingo) are enormous oil. Together they produce three-fifths of the world’s crude and half its natural gas, compared with just over a tenth for large international oil firms (the rest is pumped by smaller independent companies). They sit on roughly two-thirds of the remaining reserves of discovered oil and gas globally. Four—adnoc of the United Arab Emirates (uae), Saudi Aramco, pdvsa of Venezuela and QatarEnergy—possess enough hydrocarbons to continue producing at current rates for over four decades. If you thought that private-sector oilmen were making out like bandits of late from crude prices of $100 or more a barrel, as the latest quarterly earnings of Exxon and other supermajors are expected to confirm later this week, their haul pales beside that of their state-sponsored counterparts. According to Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy, if oil prices averaged $70 a barrel until 2030, the 16 largest nocs would pocket $1.1trn more than if they averaged $50, the base case. Half of that bounty would go to the Emirati, Kuwaiti, Qatari and Saudi nocs. Russia’s energy giants such as Rosneft, mostly shunned by the West after its invasion of Ukraine in February but embraced by China and other Asian customers, would capture nearly a fifth. And as the private sector gets shamed and squeezed into embracing a lower-carbon future, the nocs’ clout will only grow. It is therefore worrying that enormous oil’s record on decarbonisation has been so poor. Whereas the leading Western majors’ emissions of greenhouse gases have already stabilised or peaked, the same is true of just two state-run firms: Brazil’s Petrobras and Colombia’s Ecopetrol. Kavita Jadhav of Wood Mackenzie reckons that the state-run giants are allocating less than 5% of their capital spending to the energy transition, compared with 15% on average for American and European firms. Between 2005 and 2020 developing-world nocs also filed many fewer patent applications for green ideas than their international rivals, according to research by Amy Myers Jaffe and colleagues at the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University.Not all state mastodons are the same, however. As Daniel Yergin, an energy expert now at s&p Global, a research firm, observes, nocs are much more diverse than private firms. s&p Global identifies 65 of them worldwide, ranging from basket cases like pdvsa, long mismanaged by Venezuela’s left-wing dictatorship, to professionally run firms which are listed and, at least in principle, accountable to minority shareholders (notably Aramco or Norway’s Equinor). Small wonder that they differ in their shade of brown, too.Many of the brownest nocs are in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Most are poorly run and have smallish or unattractive reserves. The Algerian and Venezuelan companies emit three to four times as much carbon in oil production as do the more geologically blessed and better managed firms such as adnoc and Saudi Aramco, and flare seven to ten times as much methane, another potent greenhouse gas, per barrel as does QatarEnergy. This record, combined with long-standing governance problems, is increasingly costing such firms the support of international companies that have historically supplied them with technical and financial muscle. By the calculations of Christyan Malek of JPMorgan Chase, a bank, the oil majors underwrite between 40% and 60% of investments made by nocs outside the Persian Gulf. Now, as one Western oil executive confides, even huge revenues from an African project may not be worth it “given how much grief I’m getting”. Ben Cahill of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think-tank, puts Mexico’s pemex, Algeria’s Sonatrach, Indonesia’s Pertamina, Angola’s Sonangol and Nigeria’s nnpc in this category. The danger is that these troubled firms may boost their dirty production now, to squeeze out as much revenue as possible before their assets become completely stranded. At the other end of the green spectrum, some ambitious nocs are using today’s oil and gas windfall to expand into cleaner energy, especially in countries with dwindling reserves and relatively ambitious targets to slash greenhouse-gas emissions. Alex Martinos of Energy Intelligence, a publisher, reckons these mostly medium-sized firms have in the past three years followed European majors in accelerating spending on cleaner energy, often outpacing similar investments by American companies. Examples of this second group include Malaysia’s Petronas and Thailand’s ptt, which More

  • in

    Sen. Lindsey Graham introduces legislation to raise mandatory pilot retirement age to 67

    Sen. Lindsey Graham on Monday introduced legislation that would raise the mandatory retirement age of commercial airline pilots from 65 to 67.
    The current pilot shortage is causing flights to be dropped across the country.

    A pilot views a departure board at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) in Newark, New Jersey, on Monday, Jan. 3, 2022.
    Christopher Occhicone | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    As the country’s pilot shortage fuels flight cuts, Sen. Lindsey Graham is introducing legislation that would raise the mandatory retirement age for commercial airline pilots to 67 from 65.
    The “Let Experienced Pilots Fly Act” would also require pilots over the age of 65 to maintain a first-class medical certification that needs to be renewed every six months.

    “We’ve got to get more people in the queue to be pilots, but we also have to adjust our age in a reasonable rational way to keep people in the cockpit,” Graham, R-S.C., said at a news conference Monday. “Other countries allow people to fly to 67 and beyond. And I am confident that this is a bipartisan issue.”
    The proposed legislation would not change any other pilot qualifications and would require airlines to continue using training and qualification programs approved by the Federal Aviation Administration.
    The FAA didn’t immediately comment on the bill. In 2007, the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots was raised to 65 from 60.
    The pilot shortage comes after airlines offered early retirement packages during the Covid-19 pandemic as travel demand vanished and training and licensing slowed. Airlines had already been staring down a wave of retirements before the pandemic.
    Now, major U.S. airlines are scrambling for ways to attract pilots and get them trained faster. Airlines have also offered scholarships and, in United’s case, opened a flight training academy to help teach more pilots and ease the financial burden on students.

    Earlier in the year, Delta Air Lines stopped requiring four-year college degrees for its pilots, joining other airlines. And in April, regional carrier Republic Airways petitioned the U.S. government to allow pilots to fly for its airline with 750 flight hours — half of the 1,500-hour requirement — if they went through its training program. There are exemptions to the 1,500-hour rule, such as for military pilots.
    Some regional airlines, including for American Airlines, recently announced big pay bumps to attract and retain pilots.
    Training for prospective pilots is expensive and time-consuming, presenting a major hurdle for airlines desperate for them. It costs about $92,000 for pilots to get their initial license in a full-time seven-month program at ATP Flight School, the largest flight school in the country. It can take an additional 18 months or longer for a pilot to build up enough hours to fly.

    CNBC Politics

    Read more of CNBC’s politics coverage:

    Since 2019, 71% of airports have lost flights, said Drew Remos, senior director of government affairs with the Regional Airline Association, at the news conference Monday. Nine airports have lost service completely, he said.
    “Under this legislation, approximately 5,000 pilots would have the opportunity to continue to fly over the next two years, and in turn, help keep communities connected to the air transportation system,” Remos said. “And as early retirements increase, this number will grow providing even more relief.”
    In the next four years, 14,000 pilots will be forced to retire because of the mandatory retirement age of 65, Graham said Monday.
    — CNBC’s Leslie Josephs contributed to this article.

    WATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APP More