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    China’s fiscal stimulus is losing its effectiveness, S&P says

    China’s fiscal stimulus is losing its effectiveness and is more of a strategy to buy time for industrial and consumption policies, S&P Global Ratings said.
    High debt levels limit how much fiscal stimulus a local government can undertake, regardless of whether a city is considered a high or low-income region, the S&P report said.
    The Chinese government earlier this year announced plans to bolster domestic demand with subsidies and other incentives for equipment upgrades and consumer product trade-ins.

    Pictured here is a commercial residential property under construction on March 20, 2024, in Nanning, capital of the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in south China.
    Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    BEIJING — China’s fiscal stimulus is losing its effectiveness and is more of a strategy to buy time for industrial and consumption policies, S&P Global Ratings senior analyst Yunbang Xu said in a report Thursday.
    The analysis used growth in government spending to measure fiscal stimulus.

    “In our view, fiscal stimulus is a buy-time strategy that could have some longer-term benefits, if projects are focused on reviving consumption or industrial upgrades that increase value-add,” Xu said.
    China has set a target of around 5% GDP growth this year, a goal many analysts have said is ambitious given the level of announced stimulus. The head of the top economic planning agency said in March that China would “strengthen macroeconomic policies” and increase coordination among fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial and regional policies.
    High debt levels limit how much fiscal stimulus a local government can undertake, regardless of whether a city is considered a high or low-income region, the S&P report said.
    Public debt as a share of GDP can range from around 20% for the high-income city of Shenzhen, to 140% for the far smaller, low-income city of Bazhong in southwestern Sichuan province, the report said.

    “Given fiscal constraints and diminishing effectiveness, we expect local governments will focus on reducing red tape and taking other measures to improve business environments and support long-term growth and living standards,” S&P’s Xu said.

    “Investment is less effective amid [the] drastic property sector slowdown,” Xu added.
    Fixed asset investment for the year so far picked up pace in March versus the first two months of the year, thanks to an acceleration of investment in manufacturing, according to official data released this week. Investment in infrastructure slowed its growth, while that into real estate dropped further.
    The Chinese government earlier this year announced plans to bolster domestic demand with subsidies and other incentives for equipment upgrades and consumer product trade-ins. The measures are officially expected to create well over 5 trillion yuan ($704.23 billion) in annual spending on equipment.
    Officials told reporters last week that on the fiscal front, the central government would provide “strong support” for such upgrades.

    S&P found that local governments’ fiscal stimulus has generally been bigger and more effective in richer cities, based on data from 2020 to 2022.
    “Higher-income cities have a lead because they are less vulnerable to declines in property markets, have stronger industrial bases, and their consumption is more resilient in downturns,” Xu said in the report. “Industry, consumption and investment will remain the key growth drivers going forward.”
    “Higher-tech sectors will continue to drive China’s industrial upgrade and anchor long-term economic growth,” Xu said. “That said, overcapacity in some sectors could spark price pain in the near term.” More

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    Netflix forces Wall Street to focus on profit and revenue with decision to stop reporting subscriber numbers in 2025

    Netflix said in its first-quarter shareholder letter that it will stop reporting quarterly subscriber gains.
    The move suggests Netflix’s second wave of subscriber growth from its crackdown on password sharing could slow down next year.
    It’s also a sign the company wants to be judged by mature metrics such as revenue, earnings and free cash flow.

    The Netflix logo on a laptop arranged in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York, July 16, 2023.
    Tiffany Hagler-Geard | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The best way to get investors to stop focusing on something is to stop telling them at all.
    Netflix said Thursday it will no longer report quarterly membership numbers and average revenue per membership starting in the first quarter of 2025.

    This is a significant change for the company and for the so-called “streaming wars,” which have largely been defined by a race for customers. Netflix wants investors to judge the company by the same metrics executives view as “our best proxy for customer satisfaction,” the company said in its quarterly shareholder letter.
    Namely: revenue, operating margin, free cash flow — and the amount of time spent on Netflix.
    It’s also a signal Netflix’s second wave of subscriber growth may be ending. The company announced it added 9.3 million subscribers in its first quarter as its global password-sharing crackdown and introduction of a less expensive advertising tier took hold. (The ad tier costs $6.99 per month in the U.S. as opposed to its $15.49 standard plan).
    Subscriber growth in the second quarter will be lower than in the first quarter due to “seasonality,” the company said in the letter. That may be the start of a longer period of slowing subscriber additions, as most freeloading password sharers are now paying customers.
    ARM, which Netflix defines as “streaming revenue divided by the average number of streaming paid memberships divided by the number of months in the period,” rose just 1% year over year in the quarter.

    Netflix shares fell 4% in after-hours trading, in part because of a weaker full-year revenue growth outlook than some analysts estimated. Netflix forecast revenue growth of 16% in the second quarter but just 13% to 15% for the full year.
    Investors typically don’t like less transparency. It’s particularly notable Netflix is cutting back on granular membership information, which the company used to pride itself on — including offering regional breakdowns that were more specific than all of its competitors. Apple and Amazon have never offered quarterly subscriber information for its streaming services.
    Still, forcing Wall Street to focus on revenue and profit, rather than user growth, is also evidence of Netflix’s maturity as a company. For more than a decade, the streamer has been viewed as a disruptor to legacy media.
    Now, about five years into “the streaming wars,” Netflix is the dominant incumbent.
    “In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” Netflix said in its shareholder letter. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow (FCF). We are also developing new revenue streams like advertising and our extra member feature, so memberships are just one component of our growth.””In addition, as we’ve evolved our pricing and plans from a single to multiple tiers with different price points depending on the country, each incremental paid membership has a very different business impact,” the company added.
    Netflix has the luxury of focusing on profit, revenue and free cash flow because the company’s finances are far healthier than most legacy media companies. For example, year-over-year revenue climbed 15%.
    Operating income grew by 54%, and operating margin rose by 7 percentage points to 28%. These gains far outpace companies such as Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney, Paramount Global and Comcast’s NBCUniversal, which have money-losing (or barely profitable) streaming services and declining traditional TV businesses.
    That calls into question whether other media companies will follow Netflix’s lead and stop reporting subscriber numbers for their streaming services. Many of the legacy media companies haven’t started their password-sharing crackdowns like Netflix. That may mean they have more growth to come, which investors would likely want to see.
    “We’ve evolved and we’re going to continue to evolve,” said Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters during the company’s earnings call. “It means that the historical math we used to do is increasingly less accurate” in assessing the state of the business, he added.
    Disclosure: Comcast NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

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    Netflix blows past earnings estimates as subscribers jump 16%

    Netflix beat quarterly earnings and revenue estimates.
    The company said subscribers jumped 16% from the year-earlier period, but added it would no longer report paid memberships starting next year.
    Netflix has focused more on growing profit rather than boosting subscribers.

    A couple sits in front of a television with the Netflix logo on it.
    Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

    LOS ANGELES — Netflix will no longer provide quarterly membership numbers or average revenue per user starting next year, the company said Thursday as it reported earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines.
    Total memberships rose 16% in the first quarter, reaching 269.6 million, well above the 264.2 million Wall Street had expected. However, the quarter marks one of the last glimpses investors will get of the company’s subscriber base going forward.

    “As we’ve noted in previous letters, we’re focused on revenue and operating margin as our primary financial metrics — and engagement (i.e. time spent) as our best proxy for customer satisfaction,” the company said in its quarterly letter to shareholders. “In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential.”
    Netflix said now that it is generating substantial profit and free cash flow — as well as developing new revenue streams like advertising and a password-sharing crackdown — its membership numbers are not the only factor in the company’s growth. It said the metric lost significance after it started to offer multiple price points for memberships.
    The company said it would still announce “major subscriber milestones as we cross them.”
    Netflix also noted that it expects paid net additions to be lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter “due to typical seasonality.” Its second-quarter revenue forecast of $9.49 billion was just shy of Wall Street’s estimate of $9.54 billion
    Shares of the company fell around 4% in extended trading.

    Here are Netflix’s first-quarter results:

    Earnings per share: $5.28 vs. $4.52 expected by LSEG
    Revenue: $9.37 billion vs. $9.28 billion expected by LSEG
    Total memberships: 269.6 million vs. 264.2 million expected, according to Street Account

    Netflix reported first-quarter net income of $2.33 billion, or $5.28 per share, versus $1.30 billion, or $2.88 per share, in the prior-year period.
    The company posted revenue of $9.37 billion for the quarter, up from $8.16 billion in the year-ago quarter.
    The streaming company is navigating its transformation from targeting subscriber growth to focusing on profit, as it uses price hikes, a crackdown on password sharing and an ad-supported tier to boost revenue. Investors are looking for signs that these efforts are still boosting Netflix and seeking more details about the company’s foray into video games.
    Netflix could also provide more insight into its partnership with TKO Group Holdings to bring WWE to the platform. The company has teased that it would like to expand its live sports offerings.
    “We’re in the very early days of developing our live programming and I would look at this as an expansion of the types of content we offer, the way we expanded to film and unscripted and animation and most recently games,” said co-CEO Ted Sarandos during Thursday’s earnings call. “We believe that these kind of event cultural moments like the Jake Paul and Mike Tyson fight are just that kind of television, and we want to be part of winning over those moments with our members as well, so that for me is the excitement part of this.”
    As of Thursday morning, the company’s stock was up 27% year to date and around 85% over the last 12 months.

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    Nordstrom family tries again to take department store private, forms special committee

    The Nordstrom family wants to take the company private and has formed a special committee to evaluate bids.
    The 123-year-old department store unsuccessfully tried to take the company private in 2017.
    Department stores face an uncertain future as the retail industry changes and brands look to drive sales outside of wholesale channels.

    A sign marks the location of a Nordstrom store in a shopping mall on March 20, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. 
    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    The Nordstrom family is once again considering taking the department store private and has formed a special committee to evaluate bids, it announced on Thursday. 
    CEO Erik Nordstrom and president Pete Nordstrom recently told the company’s board of directors that it’s interested in pursuing a take private deal for the 123-year-old department store, Nordstrom said in a news release. 

    As a result, the board formed a special committee of independent and disinterested directors who will evaluate proposals from the two Nordstrom brothers and any others from outside parties. 
    The company said that Nordstrom’s board “is committed to enhancing shareholder value” and the committee will determine if any potential bids are in the best interest of the company and its owners. 
    The department store warned that there’s no assurance a deal will happen or be approved. 
    In 2017, private-equity firm Leonard Green & Partners came close to taking the company private but the deal ultimately fell apart. 
    At the time, management was hoping going private would allow it to make the investments it needed to help it adapt to a shifting retail landscape without the constant scrutiny that comes with a public company. 

    The announcement comes as department stores face an uncertain future and grapple with declining sales. Many of the brands that have long relied on department stores to drive their revenue are now focusing on their own stores and websites and are less interested in working with wholesalers. 
    Nordstrom’s interest in going private was first reported by Reuters last month. Shares rose about 2% in extended trading after the news was announced and are up about 1.5% year to date, as of Thursday’s close. More

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    Mortgage rates are now at the highest level of the year, and could still climb

    The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage sits around 7.5%, the highest level since mid-November of last year, according to Mortgage News Daily.
    Even with rates higher, however, mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

    Homes in Rocklin, California, on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022.
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage crossed over 7% on April 1, according to Mortgage News Daily, and it just kept going. It now sits right around 7.5%, the highest level since mid-November of last year.
    Rates hit their highest level in a few decades last October, causing home sales to grind to a halt. Builders jumped to buy down rates for their customers and managed to do better than existing home sellers.

    Rates then fell through mid-January to the mid-6% range and held there into February, causing a surge in home sales. But then they began rising again.
    “By mid-February, a pick-up in inflation reset expectations, putting mortgage rates back on an upward trend, and more recent data and comments from Fed Chair [Jerome] Powell have only underscored inflation concerns,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. “Sales data over the next few months is likely to reflect the impact of now-higher mortgage rates.”

    Even with rates higher, however, mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Demand was still 10% lower than the same week one year ago, even with rates now 70 basis points higher than they were a year ago.
    “Despite these higher rates, application activity picked up, possibly as some borrowers decided to act in case rates continue to rise,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s chief economist.
    That may be short-lived, however, as affordability weakens even further. While there is more supply on the market now than there was a year ago, it is still at a very low level historically. That has caused homes to move faster as the competition increases. Anyone waiting for rates to drop significantly may be waiting for a while.
    “Recent economic data shows that the economy and job market remain strong, which is likely to keep mortgage rates at these elevated levels for the near future,”  said Bob Broeksmit, MBA’s president and CEO.

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    NBA’s exclusive TV rights negotiating window with ESPN, Warner expected to pass without a deal

    The NBA’s exclusive negotiating window with incumbent media partners Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery will likely pass without a deal announcement, according to people familiar with the matter.
    Both Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are actively in talks with the NBA, and those discussions will continue past April 22, when the exclusive window expires.
    Amazon, NBCUniversal, Netflix, YouTube TV and Apple have all expressed preliminary interest in talks with the NBA about potentially buying a package of games as a new partner, CNBC reported last year.

    Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, #23, during the NBA game between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Jan. 7, 2024.
    Jevone Moore | Icon Sportswire | Getty Images

    The National Basketball Association’s exclusive media rights negotiating window with current partners Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery is likely to expire Monday without a new deal, according to people familiar with the matter.
    Beginning next week, the NBA will be able to work on agreements for new partners to show packages of games. Amazon, Apple, YouTube TV, Comcast’s NBCUniversal/Peacock and Netflix have all had preliminary conversations with the league expressing potential interest, CNBC reported last year. The exclusive negotiating window with the league’s incumbent partners officially ends Monday.

    While no agreement is expected to be announced by the deadline, Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery both continue to work on terms with the league, an NBA spokesperson confirmed. The NBA would like to bring in at least one new partner to serve as a flagship streamer, CNBC reported last year. The league wants a “robust” streaming partner that will use marketing and reach to make the games a priority on their platform, CNBC reported.
    “We continue to have productive discussions with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery on a renewal of our media deals,” a league spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC.
    Spokespeople for Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery declined to comment.
    Warner Bros. Discovery’s TBS began airing NBA games in 1984, and TNT has shown NBA games since 1988. Disney’s ESPN and ABC have broadcast the NBA since 2002. The two companies have both publicly expressed a desire to renew with the NBA and have joined forces with Fox to launch a new streaming service geared to sports fans that don’t already pay for cable. That service will debut in the fall, the companies said earlier this year.

    A more complex deal

    The NBA is looking to double the $24 billion it generated from its previous media rights deal with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery by adding new partners and charging more for rights, CNBC reported last year. In 2014, during the NBA’s last negotiation, the league renewed its rights with Disney and Time Warner about five months before the end of its exclusive negotiating window. The NBA also doubled the price for its rights in that deal from its previous agreement.

    This time, the discussions with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are more complicated because of the likely addition of a third party. Both Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery aren’t eager to lose the rights they already have. Still, the league is looking for a large increase in fees, and neither company wants to carry the full burden of paying significantly more for what they already have, according to people familiar with the negotiations.
    That allows for the league to bring in another party — or possibly even two more. The NBA could sell its new in-season tournament package of games to a separate media company other than its primary new streaming partner, one of the people said.
    The value of popular live sports programming has increased because of its value to advertisers. While ad-free subscription streaming services have increasingly become the home for popular scripted programming, sports are still predominantly watched live, forcing viewers to see commercials.
    Last year’s NBA playoffs was the most watched in 11 years across TNT, ABC, ESPN and NBA TV, according to Nielsen. The 2023-24 NBA regular season averaged 1.09 million viewers, up 1% from last year and the highest across-network average in four years, according to SportsMediaWatch.
    Still, regular-season viewership plateaued this year among standard cable and broadcast networks. Across ABC, ESPN and TNT, the average televised audience of 1.56 million was down 1% from last year’s 1.59 million and was the lowest in three years. TNT averaged 1.4 million viewers for its 65 regular-season games, equaling the year prior, according to a Warner Bros. Discovery spokesperson.
    The first round of the NBA playoffs will start Saturday.
    Disclosure: Comcast’s NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.
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    National Park Week is coming up — and that means free entry for visitors

    Visitors get free entry to all U.S. national park sites on April 20, when National Park Week kicks off.
    Most sites typically don’t have an admission fee but 108 of them do. They generally charge about $20 to $35 per vehicle.
    A few parks require visitors make an online reservation in advance. Without it, they’d be denied entry on certain days and during peak times.

    Grand Prismatic Spring, Yellowstone National Park on Aug. 8, 2020.
    Darwin Fan | Moment | Getty Images

    Visitors to national parks will get free admission on April 20 as the federal government waives entrance fees to commemorate the start of National Park Week.
    National Park Week runs for nine days, from April 20 to April 28.

    The National Park Service oversees 429 park sites in the U.S. Of them, 63 are national parks. The remainder are national monuments, national battlefields and national historic sites, for example.
    More from Personal Finance:4 big ways to save on your next tripDon’t let this passport quirk upend your next vacation2024 is the ‘year of globetrotting’
    Most offer free entrance all the time. However, 108 parks don’t — including some of the most popular, like Grand Canyon, Zion, Rocky Mountain, Acadia, Yosemite, Yellowstone, Joshua Tree and Glacier national parks.
    Their entrance fees — which typically range from $20 to $35 per vehicle — will be waived on April 20.
    Fee structures can vary: Some parks may charge per person instead of per vehicle, and there may also be different fees for motorcycles, for example.

    Joshua Tree National Park, California
    Casey Kiernan | Moment | Getty Images

    April 20 is one of six days in 2024 when access is free to all national parks. They include:

    Jan. 15: Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday
    April 20: First day of National Park Week
    June 19: Juneteenth
    Aug. 4: Anniversary of the Great American Outdoors Act
    Sept. 28: National Public Lands Day
    Nov. 11: Veterans Day

    Be aware of additional entry requirements

    Yosemite National Park, California, on April 27, 2023.
    Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    There’s a caveat, however. While all parks may be free on these days, some still require an additional reservation for entry. Those reservations generally come with an extra fee.
    For example, Yosemite National Park in California requires reservations to drive into or through the park during peak hours — between 5 am and 4 pm local time — on many days this year. They include holidays and weekends between April 13 and June 30, and every day from July 1 through August 16, for example.
    Yosemite visitors won’t be allowed entry without making an online reservation ahead of time. They cost $2, are nonrefundable and are valid for three consecutive days.

    Additionally, it may make financial sense for visitors to buy an annual national park pass even if they plan to visit during a free entrance day, depending on the trip itinerary, Mary Cropper, travel advisor and senior U.S. specialist at Audley Travel, previously told CNBC.
    The $80 annual pass grants unlimited entrance to national parks and other federal recreation areas. Some groups can get reduced-price or even free annual passes.
    For example, a pass would likely be a better option if you plan to visit multiple parks in one trip, Cropper said.
    “You want to do the math,” she said. More

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    March homes sales dropped despite a surge in supply. Here’s why.

    The median price of an existing home sold in March was $393,500, up 4.8% from the year before.
    Inventory did improve slightly, rising 4.7% month-to-month to 1.11 million homes for sale at the end of March.
    Regionally, sales fell everywhere except in the North, where they rose 4.2% month-to-month. Sales fell hardest in the West, down 8.2%. Prices are highest in the West.

    Sales of previously owned homes dropped 4.3% in March compared with February, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.19 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 3.7% lower than in March 2023. This came after a big jump in sales in February.
    Rising mortgage rates are likely the cause of the slowdown.

    This sales count is based on closings from contracts likely signed in January and February. Mortgage rates stayed lower in January, in the mid 6% range on the popular 30-year fixed loan. They then shot higher in February.
    Regionally, sales fell everywhere except in the Northeast, where they rose 4.2% month to month. Sales dropped hardest in the West, down 8.2%. Prices are highest in the West.
    “Though rebounding from cyclical lows, home sales are stuck because interest rates have not made any major moves,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a release. “There are nearly six million more jobs now compared to pre-COVID highs, which suggests more aspiring home buyers exist in the market.”
    Inventory did improve slightly, rising 4.7% month to month to 1.11 million homes for sale at the end of March. That’s a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace. Inventory is now 14.4% higher than March of last year.
    More supply did not cool home prices, however. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $393,500, up 4.8% from the year before. It’s also the highest price ever for the month of March. The annual comparison was, however, slightly lower than the month before.

    The spring housing market is getting more competitive, and moving faster. The typical home sat on the market for just 33 days compared with 38 days in February.
    Investors pulled back a bit, making up 15% of sales, compared with 21% in February and 17% in March of last year. First-time buyers did make a comeback though, accounting for 32% of sales, up from 26% in February and 28% the year before.
    All-cash purchases accounted for 28% of sales, down from 33% in February but up from 27% one year ago. Pre-pandemic, that share was generally around 20%.
    Mortgage rates have moved even higher this month, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed hovering around 7.5%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
    “Every time you get to that round number, it is always that psychological barrier,” Yun said.

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