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    Climate change has made India’s heat wave 100 times more likely, UK weather service says

    The blistering heat wave in northwest India and Pakistan was made over 100 times more likely because of human-caused climate change, according to a new study from the United Kingdom’s Met Office.
    The analysis suggests that high temperatures that used to occur about every 300 years may now happen about every three years.
    The extreme temperatures, which began in March, have already set records in the region and have forced millions of people to rearrange how they can work and live.

    A farmer pours water on himself while working at a wheat farm in the Ludhiana district of Punjab, India, on Sunday, May 1, 2022.
    T. Narayan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The blistering heat wave in northwest India and Pakistan was made over 100 times more likely because of human-caused climate change, according to a new study published Wednesday by the United Kingdom’s national weather service.
    The extreme temperatures, which began in March, have already set records in the region and have forced millions of people to change how they work and live. India experienced its highest March temperatures and third-highest April temperatures in 122 years of records, and Pakistan has experienced its hottest April on record.

    The U.K. Met Office study estimated how climate change was increasing the chances of such heat events, using the region’s record-breaking heat event in April and May of 2010 as a benchmark.
    Without accounting for climate change, the probability of exceeding a heat event like the one that occurred in 2010 would only be expected once every 312 years, according to the study. But accounting for the current effects of climate change, such record-breaking temperatures are now expected every 3.1 years. By the end of the century, the chances could increase to every 1.15 years, the study cautioned.
    “Spells of heat have always been a feature of the region’s pre-monsoon climate during April and May,” said Nikos Christidis, the lead researcher of the study. “However, our study shows that climate change is driving the heat intensity of these spells.”

    Air-coolers for sale in New Delhi, India, on Saturday, April 30, 2022. India is experiencing a heat wave, with the countrys average temperature reaching almost 92 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) in March, the highest on record for the month since authorities started collecting the data in 1901.
    Anindito Mukherjee | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    In India, the average maximum temperature in April was 35.30 degrees Celsius (95.5 degrees Fahrenheit), or just behind the 35.42 degrees Celsius (95.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in 2010 and 35.32 degrees Celsius (95.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in 2016, according to the Indian government.
    The average maximum temperature in March was 33.10 degrees Celsius (91.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the highest average maximum in the past 122 years and slightly higher than the previous record seen in March 2010.

    Temperatures also are reaching well above average this month. In recent days, temperatures in parts of India have reached 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit), while parts of Pakistan reached 51 degrees Celsius (123.8 degrees Fahrenheit) last Sunday.
    The heat wave has eased since then, but maximum temperatures are likely to hit 50 degrees Celsius again in some areas, said Paul Hutcheon of the Met Office’s Global Guidance Unit.
    Scientists will have to wait until the end of the month, when all the temperature records for April and May have been collated, to see whether this year’s heat wave will exceed the levels experienced in 2010.

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    Jim Cramer says investors should eye these two lithium stocks

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Wednesday offered investors two lithium stocks he believes should be on their shopping lists.
    “I’m only endorsing Albemarle and Livent for a trade. I like lithium here and I think these two have more upside because they’ve been kept down by the bad stock market,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Wednesday offered investors two lithium stocks he believes should be on their shopping lists.
    “Lithium is everywhere, people – it just takes at least eighteen months to get production going, and that’s about how long it’s been since prices started soaring. We’ve already got these smaller players getting ready to come online later this year. … Of course, once more people get in, the business will get worse,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    “I’m only endorsing Albemarle and Livent for a trade. I like lithium here and I think these two have more upside because they’ve been kept down by the bad stock market, but you have to be ready and willing to ring the register on the way up, because this boom certainly won’t last forever,” he later added.
    Cramer said that he likes the two stocks considering how resilient they’ve been, even as the market has been roiled by a series of economic and geopolitical factors in recent weeks including inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, Covid lockdowns in China and more.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 3.57% on Wednesday while the S&P 500 slid 4.04%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.73%. 
    Shares of Albemarle dropped 1.36% while Livent stock decreased 2.13%.
    Cramer also pointed out that both companies reported earnings beats in their latest quarters and raised their full-year forecasts. 

    “If you want to play the sky-high price of lithium, I say don’t overthink it. The easiest thing to do is buy Livent or Albemarle because we already know they’re doing great, and despite these recent moves, the stocks aren’t all that expensive based on the new earnings forecast,” he said.
    As for players in the lithium industry that investors should stay away from, Cramer said not to go near Standard Lithium, noting that it is “being bombarded” with short-selling.
    Sign up now for the CNBC Investing Club to follow Jim Cramer’s every move in the market.
    Disclaimer

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    Fed’s Powell must ‘slay these seven dragons’ for market to recover, Cramer says

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Wednesday went through a list of economic problems that Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell needs to address to tamp down inflation and in turn help the stock market rebound.
    “If Powell can slay these seven dragons, then making money in the stock market will come easy again. Until then, though, expect more horrific days like today,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Wednesday went through a list of economic problems that Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell needs to address to tamp down inflation and in turn help the stock market rebound.
    “Right now, Powell’s losing on too many fronts, which means he has to get more aggressive about raising interest rates to cool things down. … Powell does have a daunting task, though,” the “Mad Money” host said.

    There “is a huge schedule of things. … I’ve only listed the most obvious seven. If Powell can slay these seven dragons, then making money in the stock market will come easy again. Until then, though, expect more horrific days like today. No gain without pain, and this time there’s a lot of it,” he later added.
    Here is the list:

    Housing: “I think mortgage rates must go to 7% or 8% before it’s just too expensive and new homes start coming down in price. … Powell has a lot of wood to chop to get rates that high, but he must do so,” Cramer said.
    Autos: “Powell has to choke demand for cars and the best way to do that is to raise interest rates. … We need a glut of cars to solve this intractable problem. Then the semiconductor makers can catch their breaths,” Cramer said.
    Labor: “The more companies that decide they can’t afford to hire people here, the less we need to worry about a wage-price spiral,” he said.
    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Cramer said that while Powell does not have control over its outcome or duration, the war is causing commodities prices, including oil and grains, to skyrocket.
    High freight costs: Either a slowdown in commerce or an increase in the number of drivers will help on this front, Cramer said.
    Airfares: Plane tickets need to get so expensive that people travel less and in turn spend less, he said.
    Consumer savings glut: People need to spend their pandemic savings so that they are motivated to go back to work, according to the host.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 3.57% on Wednesday while the S&P 500 dropped 4.04%, both marking their biggest losses since June 2020. The Dow closed at its lowest level since March of last year. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 4.73%. 
    Cramer noted that declines in the stock market suggest consumers will spend less, while a glut of inventory at retail giants point to price markdowns. These factors could help slow down the economy, but Powell still has an arduous road ahead to bring down inflation, he said.
    “Remember, consumers saving money will help break inflation, while more spending just accelerates it. … Less consumer spending makes Jay Powell’s job a lot easier,” Cramer said.

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    Kohl's says two top executives are leaving, as company seeks buyer

    Kohl’s said Wednesday that it is losing two of its top executives, as the retailer searches for a potential buyer amid pressure from activists to sell the business.
    Doug Howe, Kohl’s chief merchandising officer, is departing immediately, the retailer said in a securities filing. Greg Revelle, chief marketing officer, is expected to depart June 1.
    “A search for the replacements is already underway,” Kohl’s said.

    Vehicles sit parked in front of a Kohl’s department store in Ashland, Ky.
    Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Kohl’s said Wednesday that it is losing two of its top executives, as the retailer searches for a potential buyer amid pressure from activists to sell the business.
    Doug Howe, Kohl’s chief merchandising officer, is departing immediately, the retailer said in a securities filing. Greg Revelle, chief marketing officer, is expected to depart June 1.

    Kohl’s shares fell more than 4% in extended trading.
    The company said Howe and Revelle were leaving to pursue opportunities elsewhere.
    “A search for the replacements is already underway,” Kohl’s said. “In the meantime, we have a deep bench of marketing and merchandising talent that will ensure the continued execution of our strategies.”
    The filing comes the night before Kohl’s is set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings ahead of the market open on Thursday.
    The report will be widely watched, for a number of reasons. For one, Kohl’s has been facing ample pressure from activist investors in recent months to overhaul its board of directors and to find a new buyer.

    Just last week, Kohl’s shareholders voted to reelect the company’s current slate of 13 board directors, trumping Macellum Advisors’ proposal for a new slate of people. But Macellum responded that it will still be holding Kohl’s accountable for its decisions in the months ahead. Chiefly, the activist firm wants the retailer to find a new buyer, arguing that current Kohl’s Chief Executive Officer Michelle Gass hasn’t done enough to grow sales.
    Kohl’s has been working with bankers at Goldman Sachs to evaluate bids. Earlier this year, it rejected a proposal from Starboard-backed Acacia Research, at $64 per share, that was deemed to be too low. 
    Kohl’s shares closed Wednesday down 11% at $43.13.

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    Bath & Body Works shares fall as retailer cuts profit outlook due to inflation

    Bath & Body Works cut its profit outlook for the year, in part due to expected increases in inflationary pressures.
    The company now expects to take a hit of between $225 million and $250 million from inflation this fiscal year, or about $75 million more than originally planned.

    Sale signs inside the Bath and Body Works store in Edmonton. On Thursday, January 6, 2022, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
    Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Bath & Body Works shares fell in after-hours trading Wednesday after the retailer cut its profit outlook for the year, in part due to expected increases in inflationary pressures.
    The stock fell more than 5% after hours, following an 8.6% decline during the trading day, amid a broader market selloff.

    The company said in prepared remarks that it has been facing higher costs of raw materials, transportation and wages — like many retailers. Bath & Body Works now expects to take a hit of between $225 million and $250 million from inflation this fiscal year, or about $75 million more than originally planned.
    The comments come after big-box retailers Target and Walmart both reported this week that these kinds of expenses ate into their profits in the first quarter, thereby denting their guidance for the coming months.
    Bath & Body Works, which sells lotions, candles and other bath soaps, is forecasting its fiscal 2022 earnings from continuing operations per diluted share to be between $3.80 and $4.15, compared with a prior range of $4.30 to $4.70.
    Its second-quarter earnings per share are expected to be between 60 cents and 65 cents, compared with 77 cents a year earlier.
    For the three-month period ended April 30, Bath & Body Works reported net income of $154.9 million, or 64 cents per share, compared with income of $276.6 million, or 97 cents per share, a year earlier.

    That topped analysts’ estimates for 53 cents a share, according to a Refinitiv survey.
    Sales fell slightly to $1.45 billion from $1.47 billion a year earlier. But revenue beat expectations for $1.43 billion.
    Bath & Body Works said it will be investing this year in revamping its loyalty program and in testing a new line-up of products, including hair care. While those investments can help to drum up demand from customers, they can also pressure profits in the near term.
    Bath & Body Works shares are down about 39% this year.
    Find the full earnings press release here.

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    Here's what Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe's tell us about the state of the American consumer

    Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s reported quarterly results this week, and they each offered a different perspective on where and how people are spending their money.
    “While we’ve experienced high levels of inflation in our international markets over the years, U.S. inflation being this high and moving so quickly, both in food and general merchandise, is unusual,” Walmart’s CEO said.
    Analysts and investors didn’t anticipate that Walmart and Target would take such a massive hit to their profits.
    Home Depot and Lowe’s, though, have seen more strength among shoppers in recent weeks.

    Compilation of Target, Walmart, Lowe’s and Home Depot stores.

    How well is the American consumer holding up against sky-high inflation? It depends on whom you ask.
    Four major retailers — Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s — reported quarterly financial results this week, and they each offered a different perspective on where and how people are spending their money.

    Walmart said some of its more price-sensitive customers are beginning to trade down to private-label brands, while Home Depot emphasized the resiliency among its customer base, a sizable percentage of which is professional home builders and contractors.
    The reports came after Amazon in late April flashed warning signs for the retail industry when it booked the slowest revenue growth for any quarter since the dot-com bust in 2001 and offered up a bleak forecast.
    Still, expectations on Wall Street were higher this week for both Walmart and Target. Analysts and investors didn’t anticipate that the two big-box retailers would take such a massive hit to their profits in the latest period as supply chain costs weighed on sales and unwanted inventory, such as TVs and kitchen appliances, piled up. Walmart closed Tuesday down 11.4%, marking its worst day since October 1987. On Wednesday, Walmart fell another 7%, while Target had its worst day in 35 years.
    Home Depot and Lowe’s, though, have seen more strength among shoppers in recent weeks.
    “Our customers are resilient. We are not seeing the sensitivity to that level of inflation that we would have initially expected,” Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said Tuesday on the company’s earnings call. (Shares of both home improvement chains closed Wednesday down about 5% amid a broader market sell-off.)

    The mixed commentary from these retailers is in large part due to the fact that Americans are experiencing economic volatility differently, dependent upon their income levels. Companies and consumers are in an uncharted transition period following months of Covid-related lockdown measures that prompted purchases of canned goods, toilet paper and Peloton Bikes to soar. Multiple rounds of stimulus dollars fueled spending on new sneakers and electronics.
    But as that money dries up, retailers must navigate their new normal. That includes inflation at 40-year highs, Russia’s war in Ukraine and a still-crippled global supply chain.
    “While we’ve experienced high levels of inflation in our international markets over the years, U.S. inflation being this high and moving so quickly, both in food and general merchandise, is unusual,” Walmart Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon said Tuesday on an earnings conference call.
    The results this week could foreshadow trouble for a number of retailers, including Macy’s, Kohl’s, Nordstrom and Gap, which have yet to report results for the first quarter of 2022. These companies that rely on consumers coming inside their stores to splurge on new clothes or shoes could be particularly pressured, as Walmart hinted that shoppers were beginning to pull back on discretionary items to budget more money toward groceries.
    At the same time, retailers are citing an uptick in demand for items such as luggage, dresses and makeup as more Americans plan vacations and attend weddings. But the concern is that consumers will be forced to make trade-offs, somewhere, in order to afford these things. Or they’ll seek out discounted goods at shops such as TJ Maxx.
    Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s are telling us about the state of the American consumer.

    Walmart

    Walmart is seeing a mixed picture, shaped by consumers’ household income and how they feel about the future. But in the most recent quarter, the nation’s largest retailer said shoppers are showing they are mindful of the budget.
    Customers walked out of stores and left the retailer’s website with fewer purchased items. More of them skipped over new clothing and other general merchandise as they saw prices rise on gas and groceries. Some traded down to cheaper brands or smaller items, including half-gallons of milk and the store brand of lunch meat instead of a pricier brand-name one, Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs told CNBC.
    On the other hand, he said, some customers have sprung for new patio furniture or eagerly chased the flashy new gaming console, he said.
    “If you look at the demographics of the U.S. and lay our customer map on top of it, we’d be really close to the same thing,” Biggs said. “And so you’ve got some people who are going to feel more pressure than others and I think that’s what we’re seeing.”

    Target

    Target said it is seeing a resilient consumer who have new priorities as the pandemic becomes more of an afterthought.
    “They’re shifting from buying TVs to buying luggage,” Chief Executive Officer Brian Cornell said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” He added later, “they’re still shopping, but they started to spend dollars differently.”
    That change showed up with purchases in the fiscal first quarter, he said. Customers bought decor and gifts for Easter and Mother’s Day celebrations. They threw, and attended, larger children’s birthday parties — leading to a jump in toy sales. They also bought fewer items like bicycles and small kitchen appliances as they booked flights and planned trips.
    Cornell pointed to the high spending levels that Target went up against in the year-ago first quarter, as Americans got money from stimulus checks and had fewer places to spend it.
    Comparable sales still grew, despite that challenging comparison, he noted. Plus, traffic at Target’s store and website traffic rose nearly 4% year over year. Sales growth numbers, however, would include the effects of inflation which is making everything from freight costs to groceries pricier.
    Target last quarter also had a higher level of markdowns, a staple of the retail industry that more or less disappeared during the pandemic as shoppers had a big appetite to buy and retailers had less merchandise to put on shelves.

    Home Depot

    The home improvement retailer told investors on Tuesday that it wasn’t seeing any differences in consumer behavior yet.
    Home Depot’s average ticket climbed 11.4% in the quarter, fueled largely by inflation. But executives also said that consumers are trading up, not trading down. For example, consumers are switching from gas-powered lawn mowers to more expensive battery-powered options, according to Home Depot’s Vice President of Merchandising Jeff Kinnaird.
    This behavior likely is due to the fact that the overwhelming majority of Home Depot customers are homeowners, who have seen their home equity values soar in the last two years. CFO Richard McPhail said on the call that more than 90% of its do-it-yourself customers own their homes, while basically all of its sales to contractors are on behalf of a homeowner.
    McPhail also said that roughly 93% of its customers with mortgages have fixed rates. As interest rates and housing prices rise, consumers who consider moving are opting instead to stay in their current homes and remodel them instead.

    Lowe’s

    Lowe’s echoed similar sentiments during its conference call on Wednesday. CEO Marvin Ellison said home price appreciation, the aging home stock and the ongoing housing shortage are key economic drivers of Lowe’s business.
    “It’s one of the reasons why I think home improvement is a unique retail sector and can have this macro environment where there are a lot of questions about the health of the consumer,” he told analysts.
    Consumers working on DIY projects account for about three quarters of Lowe’s sales, which is a higher proportion than rival Home Depot. So far, the company isn’t seeing any material trade down from those consumers yet.
    However, consumers are starting to feel the pinch from rising energy prices. Ellison told CNBC that Lowe’s customers are trading up to battery-powered landscaping tools and lawnmowers and more energy-efficient laundry machines.
    “Do I think it has something to do with fuel prices? The answer is absolutely,” he said.
    Lowe’s did fall short of Wall Street’s expectations for its quarterly sales, but executives chalked up the retailer’s disappointing performance to weather.

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    Hasbro slams activist investor's proposed board directors as proxy battle heats up

    Hasbro issued a letter to shareholders detailing why its current slate of board nominees should be voted in and admonishing the directors proposed by Alta Fox Capital Management.
    The letter comes three weeks before Hasbro shareholders are set to weigh in on a proxy battle between the toy company and the activist investor.
    The activist investor wants to do away with Hasbro’s current “brand blueprint” strategy and has suggested spinning off the company’s lucrative Wizards of the Coast and digital gaming business.

    Game maker Hasbro.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Hasbro is going on the offensive against an activist investor wants to add new members to the company’s board and spin off the lucrative unit that includes Dungeons & Dragons.
    On Wednesday, the toymaker issued a letter to shareholders detailing why its current slate of board nominees should be voted in and admonishing the directors proposed by Alta Fox Capital Management, which owns a 2.5% stake in the company worth around $325 million.

    “The Hasbro board nominees have the right balance of skill sets, experiences and fresh perspectives to guide our new CEO – Chris Cocks – and our management team in executing our long-term strategy for the benefit of all shareholders,” according to the letter to shareholders, which was obtained by CNBC. “[Alta Fox] is attempting to replace three of our highly skilled and experienced directors with nominees who lack relevant industry expertise and, in our view, possess inferior skillsets.”
    Representatives for Alta Fox did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
    The letter comes three weeks before Hasbro shareholders are set to weigh in on a proxy battle between the toy company and the activist investor.
    Alta Fox initially nominated five directors to the company’s board, but narrowed the slate down to three in April. The activist investor wants to do away with Hasbro’s current “brand blueprint” strategy and has suggested spinning off the company’s Wizards of the Coast and digital gaming business as part of a broader push to grow profitability in the company’s consumer products and entertainment divisions.
    Alta Fox told shareholders in February that this spin off would increase Hasbro’s share value by $100. Hasbro has since refuted that claim and said that separating Wizards of the Coast from its core business would be a detriment to both the division and the company as a whole.

    ‘Nominees who lack relevant industry expertise’

    In its Wednesday letter, Hasbro said that it offered Alta Fox the opportunity to have its proposed directors interview with the board’s nominating committee. It said Alta Fox initially refused to do these interviews, but ultimately allowed one of the nominees to speak with the committee.
    Hasbro added that its board determined that Liz Hamren and Blake Jorgensen, which Hasbro had put forth for director seats, were better additions to the board because “their significant experience and expertise in gaming, technology, operations and capital allocation.”
    “In our view, Alta Fox’s nominees, given their limited relevant qualifications, would not be additive to the board in helping Hasbro achieve its long-term strategy,” the letter said.

    Hasbro used its letter to point out the shortcomings it sees in each of the three proposed directors from Alta Fox.
    The company said Marcelo Fischer, chief financial officer at IDT Telecom, “has a long history of underperforming spin-offs” and noted that his expertise is in telecommunications and personal care, neither of which are “relevant to Hasbro’s business model.”
    Hasbro also noted that Fischer’s company, IDT, has a business relationship with Alta Fox that has not been disclosed to shareholders.
    Alta Fox’s second proposed director is Rani Hublou, who sits on the board of software company Tecsys. The toymaker said it asked to interview Hublou but was not given the opportunity to do so by Alta Fox. Hasbro said Hublou has experience that is “narrowly limited to marketing in the enterprise software space” and “no qualifications in consumer businesses focused on gaming, entertainment or consumer products.”
    It also noted that Tecsys total shareholder return has fallen 36% in the last 12 months.
    The third proposed director is Carolyn Johnson, a board member of Kuvare Holdings, an insurance company. Hasbro said it was also not permitted to interview Johnson.
    “[She] has a poor track record regarding business transformation and lacks critical industry experience,” Hasbro wrote. “She has a short seven-month tenure and little success as chief transformation officer at AIG, whose net income declined 84% during her tenure.”
    Hasbro also said that Johnson did not have any experience leading or growing a consumer business and not expertise in gaming, consumer products or entertainment.

    Where Hasbro stands

    “This is getting more and more personal the longer it persists,” said Stephanie Wissink, managing director at Jefferies. “Alta Fox’s most recent move and Hasbro’s response is consistent with that view.”
    “It’s what we dislike most about activist vs. corporate campaigns; without open communication, mutual respect and agreement, people’s reputations are the remaining leverage in the proxy contest heading into the vote,” she said.
    Hasbro’s strategy uses storytelling to drive toys sales. Under the late CEO Brian Goldner, Hasbro successfully grew beyond just toys and games and into the television, movies and digital gaming space.
    It uses toy brands like Transformers and My Little Pony to fuel movies and television shows, and then that entertainment content to fuel sales of toys. The company is currently producing a Dungeons & Dragons movie and television show through eOne. It has also used these brands for publishing, apparel and accessories.
    While first quarter results, which were reported in April, were weaker-than-expected, Hasbro said that higher toy prices and demand will deliver profits by the end of the year. Shares of Hasbro are down 11% since January.
    Net revenue rose 4% to $1.16 billion, boosted by demand for toys based on “Spider-Man: No Way Home” as well as for role-playing games from franchises Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons.
    The company also lifted its fiscal 2022 operating profit growth forecast to mid-single digits from its earlier estimate of a low-single-digit rise.

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    EV battery costs could spike 22% by 2026 as raw material shortages drag on

    The cost to produce electric vehicles is primed to surge over the next four years, according to a new report from research firm E Source.
    The spike is the result of scarcity in key raw materials needed to make EV battery cells.
    E Source estimates battery cell prices will surge 22% from 2023 through 2026, peaking at $138 per kilowatt-hour.

    Attendees look at the all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck at the Washington Auto Show in Washington on Tuesday, January 25, 2022.
    Bill Clark | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    The cost to produce electric vehicles is primed to surge over the next four years, according to a new report, the result of scarcity in key raw materials needed to make EV battery cells.
    “The tsunami of demand is coming,” said Sam Jaffe, vice president of battery solutions at E Source, a research firm in Boulder, Colorado. “I don’t think the battery industry is ready for it.” 

    The price of EV battery cells has declined in recent years as production rose around the world. Battery cells currently cost $128 per kilowatt-hour on average, and by next year could cost around $110 per kilowatt-hour, E Source estimates.
    But the declines won’t last much beyond that: E Source estimates battery cell prices will surge 22% from 2023 through 2026, peaking at $138 per kilowatt-hour, before they resume a steady decline through 2031— possibly to as low as $90 per kilowatt-hour.
    The projected spike is the result of growing demand for key raw materials, like lithium, needed to make tens of millions of battery cells, Jaffe said.
    “There is a literal shortage of lithium, and there’s going to be an even sharper shortage of lithium. You cannot make the batteries if you don’t mine the lithium,” he said.

    Brine pools at the Albemarle Corp. Lithium mine in Calama, Antofagasta region, Chile, on Tuesday, July 20, 2021.
    Cristobal Olivares | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The expected surge in battery costs could drive the price of EVs sold in 2026 up anywhere between $1,500 and $3,000 per vehicle, E Source predicts. The firm has also reduced its EV sales projections for 2026 by 5% to 10%.  

    By then, EV sales are projected to top 2 million annually in the U.S., according to the latest forecast from consulting firm LMC Automotive. Automakers are expected to introduce dozens of electric models as more Americans embrace the idea of going electric. 
    Auto executives have increasingly warned about the need to produce more of the materials that are essential for EVs. Ford CEO Jim Farley called for more mining last month around the company’s launch of its all electric F-150 Lightning.
    “We need mining permitting. We need processing precursor and refinement permitting in the U.S., and we need the government and private sector to work together and bring it here,” Farley told CNBC.
    Tesla CEO Elon Musk, as early as 2020, urged the mining industry to increase its extraction of nickel.
    “Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way,” Musk said during a July 2020 conference call.
    Though industry executives and government leaders agree more needs to be done to source raw materials, E source says there’s still a surprisingly low number of mining projects.
    “With the price of lithium having risen nearly 900% in the last eighteen months, we had assumed the capital markets would unleash the floodgates to establish dozens of new lithium mining projects. Instead, the investments have come in dribs and drabs, with most of it originating from China for the Chinese supply chain,” the firm said in its report.
    — CNBC’s Meghan Reeder contributed to this article. 

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