Business

A range of consumer companies are cutting their full-year forecasts, citing tariffs and a more cautious consumer.
PepsiCo, Chipotle and Procter & Gamble are among the companies that lowered their forecasts.
P&G, Keurig Dr Pepper and Hasbro all said Thursday that the tariffs could mean they will raise prices in the near future.

A Chipotle store stands in the Bronx on April 23, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

From Procter & Gamble to Chipotle, consumer companies are slashing their forecasts, projecting that tariffs will weigh on their profits and put more pressure on an already shaky consumer.
At least a dozen companies have cut or pulled their full-year outlooks so far this earnings season, with several more weeks of quarterly reports still on deck.

For many companies, tariffs mean higher prices on key commodities, like Peruvian avocados or saccharin to make toothpaste, which will eat into their earnings. But the uncertainty bred by the trade war is just as damaging to businesses’ bottom lines as consumers pull back their spending.
The cautious projections come in the middle of a 90-day pause of the higher rates under President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariff plan. Until early July, most imports will face a duty of 10%, excluding goods from China — which are subject to 145% duties — along with aluminum, cars and other nonexempt items.
Still, the situation changes almost daily. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told investors in a closed-door meeting on Tuesday he expects “there will be a de-escalation” in Trump’s trade war with China in the “very near future.” The White House also said Wednesday that automakers could win exemptions for some tariffs.

Higher prices to fight lower profits

Packages of Cascade Platinum Plus dishwasher detergent are stacked at a Costco Wholesale store on March 11, 2025 in San Diego, California.
Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Under the tariffs in effect now, coffee, board games and aircraft are all more expensive for companies to make. Many executives will likely choose to raise prices to mitigate the dent to profit margins.
“Aircraft cost too much already. I don’t want to pay any more for aircraft,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said Thursday. “It doesn’t make sense. And certainly, we’re pulling guidance. Certainly, this is not something we would intend to absorb. And I’ll tell you, it’s not something that I would expect our customers to welcome. So we’ve got to work on this.”

Tariffs worldwide, including retaliatory ones and not just those in the U.S., will “really pressure” progress in improving the industry’s supply chain, Airbus Americas CEO Robin Hayes said at a Wings Club luncheon in New York on Thursday. The U.S. aerospace industry has a trade surplus, helping soften the country’s overall deficit.
Calls are growing among airlines and aerospace suppliers to reinstate the terms of a more than 45-year-old agreement that allows the industry to operate mostly duty-free. Other industries are also pushing for exemptions from tariffs.
But barring cuts in tariff rates or new carveouts for goods, travel isn’t the only sector that will see price hikes. P&G, Keurig Dr Pepper and Hasbro all said Thursday that they could raise prices in the near future to offset higher costs.
“There will likely be pricing [changes] — tariffs are inherently inflationary — but we’re also looking at sourcing options,” P&G CEO Jon Moeller said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Though it predicted costs to produce its coffee and sodas would rise, Keurig Dr Pepper did not lower its full-year forecast. The company posted strong earnings growth for the first quarter, bolstered by the sale of its minority stake in coconut water maker Vita Coco, giving the beverage giant the flexibility to reiterate its outlook.

A ‘nervous’ consumer

shopper scans coupons in a grocery store in Washington, D.C.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

The tariffs will take time to affect the prices on grocery store shelves and inside malls. But they’re already taking a toll on shoppers’ mentally.
Earlier this month, U.S. consumer sentiment tumbled to its second-lowest reading since 1952. Shoppers are already pulling back their spending as they fear accelerated inflation, job losses and a potential recession, companies said this week.
“The main driver, I would say, is a more nervous consumer reducing consumption in the short term, and the impact on the cost structure and our ability to deliver the earnings a lower growth rate,” P&G CFO Andre Schulten said on a call with media on Thursday, explaining the company’s reasoning for cutting its forecast.
P&G, which owns top household brands like Charmin and Tide, lowered its outlook for core earnings per share and revenue for the full fiscal year, which is in its final quarter. Its third-quarter sales fell short of Wall Street’s estimates.
“It’s not illogical to see the consumer adopt the ‘wait and see’ attitude, and we saw traffic down at retailers,” Schulten said.
PepsiCo, another grocery store staple, cited a “subdued” consumer — along with tariffs — as the reason it cut its forecast for full-year core constant currency earnings per share.
The anxious consumer is also weighing on Chipotle, the first of the major publicly traded restaurant companies to report its results.
The burrito chain lowered the top end of its outlook for full-year same-store sales growth. Executives said traffic started slowing in February as diners began worrying more about their finances. The trend has continued into April.
“We could see this in our visitation study, where saving money because of concerns around the economy was the overwhelming reason consumers were reducing the frequency of restaurant visits,” Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright told analysts on Wednesday.
For its part, Hasbro opted to reiterate its forecast, which gives a wide range of a $100 million to $300 million headwind to its business from tariffs. The toy company’s outlook assumes that the China tariffs could range from 50% to the current rate of 145%.
Executives also warned of potential job losses tied to the increased costs.
Airlines, too, are seeing weaker demand, particularly in their economy cabins. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC in an interview earlier this month that Trump’s tariff policy at the time was the “wrong approach” and that it was hurting both domestic economy-class demand and corporate travel because of the uncertainty.
American Airlines on Thursday pulled its 2025 financial guidance, joining Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines and Delta, each citing a U.S. economy that is too difficult to predict. United Airlines took the unusual step of offering two outlooks should the U.S. economy worsen, but still expects to make money this year.
— CNBC’s Leslie Josephs contributed to this report.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February.
Inventory was up nearly 20% from a year earlier.
More inventory and slower sales are starting put a chill on prices.

Higher mortgage rates and concern over the broader economy are making for a weak start to the all-important spring housing market.
Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February to 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009.

Sales were 2.4% lower than in March 2024 and slumped across all regions month to month. They fell hardest in the West, the priciest region of the country, down more than 9%. The West, however, was the only region to see a year-over-year gain, due to strong activity in the Rocky Mountain states, where job growth is strong.
This count is based on closings, therefore contracts likely signed in January and February, when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was over 7%. It did not fall solidly below 7% until Feb. 20, according to Mortgage News Daily.
“Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.”
Sales fell despite a sharp increase in available listings. At the end of March, there were 1.33 million units for sale, an increase of nearly 20% from March 2024. At the current sales pace, that is equivalent to a 4-month supply, which is still on the lean side. A 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

A “For Sale” sign stands at a house in Miami, Florida, U.S. April 16, 2025.
Marco Bello | Reuters

More inventory and slower sales are starting put a chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700. That is still an all-time high for the month, but it’s only up 2.7% from last March. That annual comparison has been shrinking since December and is the smallest gain since August.

“In a stark contrast to the stock and bond markets, household wealth in residential real estate continues to reach new heights,” Yun said. “With real estate asset valuation at $52 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, each percentage point gain in home prices adds more than $500 billion to the household balance sheet.”
First-time buyers made up 32% of the market in March, the same as in March 2024. Historically they make up roughly 40%.
All-cash sales dropped to 26% from 28% the year before, but investors held steady at 15% of sales.
Looking ahead, the NAR is already reporting a rise in canceled contracts in March, and, given the stock market volatility in April, that could increase.
“March numbers are bad, but they’re likely to get worse,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “In addition to the existing pressures of high prices and high mortgage rates, prices for home furnishing will likely rise soon due to tariffs, and rising anxiety among consumers over inflation and jobs may magnify the instinct to hunker down already being felt by many families.” More

U.S. spirits exports reached a record $2.4 billion, up 10% compared with 2023.
Exports to the European Union increased 39%, driven in large part by uncertainty around tariffs.
Exports to the rest of the world declined by nearly 10%, reflecting a softening of the global spirits market

FILE PHOTO: Workers package bottles of Jack Daniel’s Single Barrel Select Tennessee Whiskey at the company’s distillery in Lynchburg, Tennessee, U.S., on Tuesday, May 18, 2021.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. spirit exports reached a record $2.4 billion in 2024, driven in large part by tariff concerns and ongoing global trade disputes.
That is according to the American Spirits Exports report published by trade association the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States on Thursday.

“U.S. spirits exports hit a new high in 2024, recapturing lost market share since the UK and EU lifted retaliatory tariffs that were applied between 2018-2021,” said DISCUS President and CEO Chris Swonger. “Unfortunately, ongoing trade disputes unrelated to our sector have caused uncertainty, keeping many U.S. distillers on the sidelines and curtailing sales growth.”
U.S. spirits exports to the EU surged by 39%, fueled by concerns over the potential return of a 50% tariff on American whiskey imports in 2025, which was suspended in 2022.
In March, Trump threatened to put 200% tariffs on French Champagne and other EU spirits, which led European world leaders — specifically from Ireland, France and Italy — to advocate for bourbon tariffs not to return as part of retaliatory measures.
The threat of that specific tariff has faded somewhat as the U.S. and EU continue trade negotiations.

Whiskey barrels are placed on a truck at the Jack Daniel Distillery in Lynchburg, Tennessee, U.S. February 3, 2025.
Kevin Wurm | Reuters

Approximately 50% of U.S. spirits were exported to the EU — totaling $1.2 billion — making it the largest export market.

Exports to the rest of the world, however, declined by nearly 10%, the report found, which reflects the broader softening alcohol category.
Suntory Beam, the Japanese maker of Jim Beam bourbon whiskey, said in December it was preparing for tariffs by stockpiling supply in Europe. The company is already heavily reliant on France and the United Kingdom, which make up over 50% of its global exports market over the last eight years, according to global trade data from Panjiva.
Several of the top states for exports in 2024 are significant bourbon economies, according to the report.
Top 5 states exporting U.S. spirits: 

Tennessee ($934 million)
Kentucky ($751 million)
Texas ($354 million)
Florida ($334 million)
Indiana ($142 million)

Still, American whiskey exports, which accounted for 54% of all U.S. spirits exports, dipped 5.4% to $1.3 billion.
Swonger said that while outlook for spirits remains highly unpredictable with ongoing trade disputes, one fact rings true in the data: Exports go to countries that have eliminated tariffs.
“We are thankful for President Trump’s early success in securing India’s reduction of its tariff on Bourbon from 150% to 100%,” Swonger said. “It’s our hope that the administration builds on this positive momentum by securing additional tariff reductions in India and reducing trade barriers in other countries.”
Headwinds remain for the industry. Canada, the second largest market for U.S. spirits exports, imposed a 25% tariff in on alcohol coming over the border in March, and several provinces have removed product from shelves.
Distiller and brewers also face steel and aluminum tariffs that impact materials costs for brewers like Constellation Brands, which lowered long-term 2027 and 2028 guidance significantly around “the anticipated impact of tariffs.” More

If President Donald Trump’s 145% levy against imports from China holds, Hasbro estimates it could see as much as a $300 million hit to its bottom line.
The toy maker posted better-than-expected earnings on Thursday, but investors and analysts were more focused on the ongoing trade war
CEO Chris Cocks said the company will be forced to raise prices and warned of potential job losses as the company tries to absorb costs.

Hasbro board games are seen for sale at a Target store in Austin, Texas, on Dec. 12, 2023.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

If President Donald Trump’s 145% levy against imports from China holds, Hasbro estimates it could see as much as a $300 million hit to its bottom line.
The toy maker posted better-than-expected earnings on Thursday, but investors and analysts were more focused on the ongoing trade war Trump’s White House has waged against the toy industry’s biggest manufacturer.

Hasbro maintained the full-year guidance it issued last quarter, citing the uncertainty of the current tariff environment.
“Our forecast assumes various scenarios for China tariffs, ranging from 50% to the rate holding at 145% and 10% for the rest of world,” said Gina Goetter, chief financial officer and chief operating officer at Hasbro, during Thursday’s earnings call. “This translates to an estimated $100 million to $300 million gross impact across the enterprise in 2025. Before any mitigation.”
CEO Chris Cocks said during the company’s earnings call that “while no company is insulated, Hasbro is well positioned,” noting the company’s unchanged guidance is “supported by our robust games and licensing businesses and our strategic flexibility.”
“Prolonged tariff conditions create structural costs and heighten market unpredictability,” he said, adding, “ultimately tariffs translate into higher consumer prices.”
Cocks also warned of “potential job losses as we adjust to absorb increased costs and reduced profit for our shareholders.”

The company’s U.S. games business benefits from digital and domestic sourcing, as many of its board games are made in Massachusetts. Its Wizards of the Coast division, which includes Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons, has a tariff exposure of less than $10 million, Cocks said, as much of the domestic product is made in North Carolina, Texas and Japan.

Play-Doh sits on display in the Hasbro showroom during the International Toy Fair in New York.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The company’s toy segment faces higher exposure, as a larger portion of those goods are made in China. Cocks said the company is exploring options for moving its supply chain to other countries.
“Some of that, though, comes with the cost,” he said. “When we manufacture board games in the U.S., it is significantly more expensive to manufacture here than it is in China.”
He added that the company can shift the sourcing of Play-Doh, for example, from China to its factory in Turkey. Under that scenario, Turkey manufacturers would redirect shipments from Europe to the U.S. and Chinese factories could fill in to supply the European market.
Other products are more difficult to triage, especially those that include electronics, high end deco and foam components, Cocks said.
“China will continue to be a major manufacturing hub for us globally, in large part due to specialized capabilities developed over decades,” he said.
Goetter said that much of the manufacturing changes would be seen in 2026 and are dependent on if those countries already have the capabilities and infrastructure in place to make certain products.
Hasbro is also accelerating its $1 billion cost savings plan in an effort to offset tariff pressures, but noted that price hikes are unavoidable.
“We are going to have to raise prices inside of 145% tariff regime with China,” Cocks said. “We’re just trying to do it as selectively as possible and minimize the burden to the fans and families that we serve.”
Both Goetter and Cocks admitted that Hasbro’s plans are flexible and will change as the tariff situation evolves. The company is hopeful for a “more predictable and favorable U.S. trade policy environment.”
“We’re trying to play both defense and offense at the same time,” Goetter said. More

Merck lowered its full-year profit guidance, citing a charge tied to a recent licensing deal and $200 million in estimated additional costs for tariffs implemented to date. 
The company said the expected tariff charge primarily reflects levies between the U.S. and China, but does not account for President Donald Trump’s planned duties on pharmaceuticals.
The drugmaker also reported first-quarter revenue and profit that beat expectations, citing strength in its oncology portfolio and animal health. 

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Merck on Thursday lowered its full-year profit guidance, citing $200 million in estimated costs for tariffs and a charge tied to a recent deal.
The company now expects its 2025 adjusted earnings to come in between $8.82 and $8.97, down slightly from a previous outlook of $8.88 to $9.03 per share.

The company said the expected tariff charge primarily reflects levies between the U.S. and China, and Canada and Mexico to a lesser degree. Merck has built a robust presence in China, which is considered one of the company’s most important markets and is home to some of its partners and manufacturing and research and development sites. 
Merck noted that the new outlook does not account for President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S., which is prompting some drugmakers to bolster their U.S. manufacturing footprints. 
That includes Merck, which has invested $12 billion in U.S. manufacturing and research and development and expects to put more than $9 billion more into the country by the end of 2028.
But the guidance does include a one-time charge of roughly 6 cents per share related to the company’s license agreement with Hengrui Pharma, which it announced in March.
Merck reiterated its full-year sales forecast of between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion. 

Also on Thursday, the drugmaker reported first-quarter revenue and profit that beat expectations, as it said it saw strength in its oncology portfolio and animal health products. 
Merck also cited “increasingly meaningful” sales contributions from two recently launched drugs. They are Winrevair, which is used to treat a rare, deadly lung condition, and Capvaxive, a vaccine designed to protect adults from a bacteria known as pneumococcus that can cause serious illnesses and lung infection. 
Sales of those drugs will likely be critical to Merck’s efforts to offset losses from its top-selling cancer therapy Keytruda, which will lose exclusivity in 2028. 
Here’s what Merck reported for the first quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG: 

Earnings per share: $2.22 adjusted vs. $2.14  expected
Revenue: $15.53 billion vs. $15.31 billion expected

The company posted net income of $5.08 billion, or $2.01 per share, for the quarter. That compares with a net income of $4.76 billion, or $1.87 per share, during the year-earlier period. 
Excluding acquisition and restructuring costs, Merck earned $2.22 per share for the first quarter. 
Merck raked in $15.53 billion in revenue for the quarter, down 2% from the same period a year ago.

Pharmaceutical, animal health sales

Merck’s pharmaceutical unit, which develops a wide range of drugs, booked $13.64 billion in revenue during the first quarter. That’s down 3% from the same period a year ago.
Keytruda recorded $7.21 billion in revenue during the quarter, up just 4% from the year-earlier period. 
That increase was driven by higher uptake of Keytruda for earlier-stage cancers and strong demand for the drug for metastatic cancers, which spread to other parts of the body. Still, sales came under the $7.43 billion that analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount estimates.  
Notably, Merck continued to see trouble with China sales of Gardasil, a vaccine that prevents cancer from HPV, the most common sexually transmitted infection in the U.S. 

More CNBC health coverage

In February, Merck announced a decision to halt shipments of Gardasil into China beginning that month and going through at least mid-2025. Investors will likely be looking for updates on that effort during the earnings call on Thursday. 
The Chinese market makes up the majority of the blockbuster shot’s international revenue. Merck is hoping that Gardasil’s expanded approval for men ages 9 to 26 in China will help boost uptake of the shot.
Gardasil raked in $1.33 billion in sales, down 41% from the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to lower demand in China. That’s below the $1.45 billion that analysts were expecting, according to StreetAccount estimates. 
China has retaliated with tariffs of 125% on goods from the U.S. Some experts said China’s tariffs on U.S. products could lead to increased prices or limited supply of some popular Western medicines for Chinese patients, Reuters reported.
Merck’s animal health division, which develops vaccines and medicines for dogs, cats and cattle, posted nearly $1.59 billion in sales, up 5% from the same period a year ago. The company said higher demand for livestock products and sales from Elanco’s aqua business, which it acquired last year, drove that growth.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

Comcast reported first-quarter earnings Thursday morning. 
The company beat analyst earnings estimates and saw revenue lifted primarily by its Xfinity mobile offering and streaming platform Peacock. 
Despite broadband revenue growth, Comcast still showcased the pressures the cable industry is facing in the segment with the loss of 199,000 customers during the quarter.

Comcast surpassed first-quarter expectations on Thursday even as the company lost broadband customers amid heightened competition.
While domestic broadband revenue was up 1.7% to $6.56 billion, Comcast lost 199,000 total domestic broadband customers, reflecting the continued pressure on the cable giant’s cornerstone business. Competition has ramped up in recent years due to the rise of alternative home internet options, including 5G, or so-called fixed wireless. 

Comcast shares were down more than 5% in premarket trading.
Meanwhile Comcast’s less-than-10-years-old mobile business remained a bright spot during the quarter. Revenue for the unit was up roughly 16% to $1.12 billion, and it added 323,000 lines. There are now roughly 8.15 million total Xfinity Mobile lines. 
During last quarter’s earnings call, Comcast executives alerted investors that they would shift the company’s focus to growing its mobile business following continued losses in broadband. Since then Comcast has introduced changes to its mobile plans and pricing, and made a new hire.
Comcast reported 427,000 cable TV customer losses during the quarter as the traditional bundle continues to bleed customers. Comcast provides its broadband, mobile and pay TV services under the Xfinity brand. 
Here is how Comcast performed for the period ended March 31, compared with estimates from analysts surveyed by LSEG:

Earnings per share: $1.09 adjusted vs. 98 cents expected
Revenue: $29.89 billion vs. $29.77 billion expected

For the first quarter, Comcast’s net income was down 12.5% to $3.38 billion, or 89 cents a share, compared with $3.86 billion, or 97 cents per share during the same period a year earlier. Adjusting for one-time items including income tax expenses and costs related to the value of assets, among other items, Comcast reported earnings per share of $1.09. 
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, were up nearly 2% to $9.53 billion. 
The company’s revenue was down slightly to $29.89 billion compared with $30.06 billion in the same period in 2024. 
Revenue was helped by what Comcast refers to as its “growth businesses,” including mobile, streaming platform Peacock, the business services unit, residential broadband, studios and theme parks. Comcast is in the process of spinning out its portfolio of cable networks, including CNBC, in a transaction that’s expected to be completed this year.
Revenue for the media segment, which includes NBCUniversal, was up about 1% to $6.44 billion, and revenue in the film studios unit rose 3% to $2.83 billion. 
The media unit got a boost from Peacock, with adjusted EBITDA for the segment up 21% to $1 billion driven by the streaming platform. Revenue for Peacock itself was up 16%. The streamer’s quarterly loss narrowed to $215 million, compared with a loss of $639 million in the same quarter a year prior.  
Peacock had 41 million paid subscribers, beating analyst estimates of 37.21 million for the quarter, according to StreetAccount. Peacock ended last fiscal year with 36 million paid customers. 
Competitors including Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery have each seen their streaming platforms reach profitability in recent quarters. Streamers have shifted gears to focusing on ad-supported business models and cracking down on password sharing in a bid to reach profitability as Wall Street investors shifted focus to the metric rather than subscriber additions.
NBCUniversal’s theme parks revenue was down 5% to roughly $1.88 billion – driven by lower guest attendance during a quarter plagued by the Los Angeles wildfires – weighing down the overall business. 
The company is gearing up for the debut of Universal Epic Universe on May 22, which will be the first major theme park development in Florida in 25 years. In Thursday’s release, Comcast called the new theme park its “most ambitious parks experience ever created,” with more than 50 attractions.
In August it will also open Universal Horror Unleashed in Las Vegas. NBCUniversal also recently announced plans to build a Universal Theme Park and Resort in the U.K.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

“This is where people of today’s world hang out,” explained Bill Preston, a student, to Socrates. Mr Preston was not your typical member of the Socratic circle. The year was 1988 and they were riding the escalator at a mall. That the makers behind “Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure”, a film about two high-schoolers transporting historical figures to their present day, chose this setting is unsurprising. Since America’s first fully enclosed mall opened in Minnesota in 1956, thousands had sprung up across the country. Malls were the new agora where the demos came to eat, shop and, indeed, “hang out”. More

Volkswagen’s days of producing a “global icon” may have seemed behind it. But last month Gunnar Kilian, who sits on the management board of Europe’s biggest carmaker, gushed on LinkedIn that vw had done just that. Mr Kilian was not raving about a fancy new car model, though. VW’s very own currywurst—a German sausage with spicy tomato sauce—has become, he declared, a “cult” product, with “international bestseller status”. More