Tariff proposals have put the complex global supply chain front and center as President-elect Donald Trump gets inaugurated on Monday.
On the campaign trail, Trump said he would add tariffs for goods made in other countries, especially China.
Those higher costs on sneakers, cars, furniture and more could force many consumers to change their buying habits.
Customers shop for food at a grocery store on Jan. 15, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
Many of the items that U.S. shoppers browse and buy in retailers’ aisles come from far-away factories or farms — a reality that could soon force many consumers to change their buying habits.
Sneakers, T-shirts, beer and other common household items are often made in countries like China, Mexico and Canada before they wind their way to a big-box retailer, grocer or mall in the U.S. That complex global supply chain is front and center Monday as President-elect Donald Trump gets inaugurated and is widely expected to announce new tariffs on imports.
While tariffs have become a familiar concept for more Americans since Trump implemented them on metals and other key materials during his first term in office, the levies he has threatened for his return to the White House could have a much bigger effect on household budgets.
Most people have little grasp of just how many items could see price hikes due to the duties: from avocados to children’s toys, to chocolate and cars, experts told CNBC. Proposed tariffs on products from China, Mexico and Canada — the three largest U.S. trading partners — would likely affect U.S. consumers the most.
The exact details of those tariffs, including which countries would be affected and how high the duties might be, remain unclear and could change. On the campaign trail, Trump spoke about implementing 10% to 20% tariffs on all countries, and putting levies as high as 60% on Chinese goods.
While news reports in recent weeks have suggested Trump could scale back his tariff proposals, and could be using them as a negotiating tactic to bend foreign governments to his will, the president-elect has denied those reports.
Since his first run for president, Trump has argued tariffs will encourage more manufacturing in the U.S. and promote job creation and national security. It’s not just him: President Joe Biden and other Democrats have backed more limited tariffs for the same reasons.
Regardless, the risk is clear for retailers: Any tariffs would bring extra costs they’d have to absorb, share with producers or pass on to customers by charging higher prices —the latter of which is the most likely scenario as the industry is reluctant to sacrifice profits, retail executives and industry experts told CNBC in recent weeks. Major retail trade groups, including the National Retail Federation and Consumer Technology Association, have warned tariffs would effectively become a tax on American businesses and consumers.
Shoppers are already expecting tariffs to hit their pocketbooks. About 67% U.S. adults surveyed said they think it is very likely or somewhat likely that companies will pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers, according to Morning Consult survey of more than 4,400 people in early December. Even so, the same poll found about 45% of adults back a 10% tariff on all imports, and more than a third of respondents support a 20% duty on all goods and a 60% levy on Chinese imports.
Ali Furman, consumer markets industry leader for PwC, said tariffs have become the number one topic of discussion among companies working with the consulting firm, and the conversations have reached the top of the C-suite. She said the tariff fallout could be different now than during Trump’s first term, since his new proposal is broader and comes as retailers struggle to convince inflation-weary consumers to spend.
“It’s not 2017,” she said. “Because there’s a more cost-conscious consumer, you have to be much more thoughtful about passing on those costs to the consumer.”
“At the same time, you don’t want to come across as anti-tariff or anti-American,” she added.
Planning for tariffs now is challenging because companies do not know how Trump will proceed. Automotive executives who have spoken with CNBC in recent weeks said they are preparing for several different scenarios but not making any moves until there’s more clarity.
“We are working, obviously, on scenarios,” Antonio Filosa, head of Stellantis’ North American operations, said. “But yes, we need to await his decisions and after the decision of Mr. Trump and his administration, we will work accordingly.”
Professor Brett House, an economist from Columbia Business School, said just about every consumer product could see a price increase under the proposals, but some companies have higher exposure than others.
“Something around 50% of U.S. petroleum imports come from Canada. The Trump administration puts tariffs on those, it is unequivocally the case that everything in the United States will become substantially more expensive,” House told CNBC in an interview. “The breadth of the impact that we should expect to see from these tariffs could be enormous and could affect every single thing we produce in the United States and every household and every business. No one will be immune.”
Here are just some of the everyday items that would be affected if duties on goods from China, Canada and Mexico take effect.
Miami, Five Below, discount variety store merchandise.
Jeff Greenberg | Universal Images Group | Getty Images
China: Sneakers, furniture and toys
Within closets, living rooms and children’s playrooms, a range of American household goods originate in China.
The country is the largest furniture exporter on the globe, according to data from the Home Furnishings Association, a trade group that lobbies on behalf of home goods retailers. In 2023, $32.4 billion in furniture was imported into the U.S., 29% of which came from China, followed close behind by Vietnam, which accounted for 26.5% of imports, according to the HFA, which cited investment banking firm Mann, Armistead & Epperson – one of the furniture industry’s top sources for data.
Between 30% and 40% of furniture is produced in the U.S., but as much as 50% of raw materials – like wood, fabrics, hinges and screws – are imported, making price increases on home products difficult to avoid, even if they’re technically “made in America.”
HFA CEO Shannon Williams said home goods retailers cannot withstand a 60% tariff on China imports and would likely have to move supply chains if Trump’s proposed tariffs went into effect. While tables and couches likely would not cost 60% more, their prices would still rise, said Williams.
If companies redirected supply chains to Vietnam, where many manufacturers fled during Trump’s first administration, retailers could still face tariffs of 10% to 20% – plus the cost of moving and scaling operations. The tariffs alone could make a $2,000 couch cost as much as $2,200 to $2,400.
If businesses moved operations to Mexico, which accounted for about 10% of U.S. furniture imports in 2023, a $2,000 couch could cost up to 25% more at $2,500.
When Trump first announced tariff increases, some industry experts suggested that retailers might eat some of that cost and try to pass some on to the manufacturer to prevent big price hikes for consumers.
Between 2018 and 2019, when Trump introduced 10% tariffs on certain goods during his first administration, furniture prices increased by about 2.3%, according to the HFA, which cited data from the consumer price index.
This time around, the tariffs are not only higher, but also the home goods sector is struggling, leaving it less equipped to absorb the cost. Covid-era purchasing, high interest rates and a sluggish housing market have made it a “rough couple years” for the industry, said Williams.
Beyond furniture, consumers could see another everyday item cost more if higher tariffs take effect: toys.
Around 80% of toys imported to the U.S. come from China, and the cost of toys made outside of the U.S. could increase by up to 56% under Trump’s proposals, according to the Toy Association, a trade group that lobbies on behalf of the industry.
That would make a $20 Barbie doll, which has historically been manufactured in China, cost as much as $31.20.
“If this were to happen, parents could be pushed to buy less expensive, non-compliant toys from unsanctioned, online sellers. These toys often do not meet U.S. safety and quality standards and could be toxic and dangerous to children, putting them at risk,” the Toy Association said in an email to CNBC. “Toys produced by the U.S. toy industry are compliant with rigorous safety and quality standards, and we hope they will remain affordable to American families and not subject to tariffs.”
The new and old versions of the classic Barbie dolls are on display at Mattel Design Center in El Segundo, California, U.S., February 22, 2024.
Mario Anzuoni | Reuters
As of the end of 2023, about 50% of toys from Barbie’s parent company Mattel were made in China, according to CEO Ynon Kreiz. This year, Mattel expects less than 40% of its sourcing to come from China so its “exposure in the U.S. to China sourcing is therefore 20%” given the company’s geographic sales mix, Chief Financial Officer Anthony DiSilvestro said.
“We’ve done a good job mitigating the potential exposure,” DiSilvestro said during a Morgan Stanley retail conference in December. “But to the extent we’re impacted, we would expect to raise prices to offset it.”
Footwear is another industry with a heavy reliance on China. About 37% of footwear imports came from the country in 2023, followed by about 30% from Vietnam, nearly 9% from Italy and 8% from Indonesia, according to data from the U.S. International Trade Commission
Nearly 100% of all footwear is imported to the U.S., according to the group.
Even before Trump’s first term, footwear manufacturers were moving some sourcing out of China as its labor force shrank, the organization’s CEO Matt Priest said. Yet he said it would be unrealistic to return production to the U.S., and moving it to another part of Asia can be difficult.
Already, some companies have accelerated their plans. Steve Madden said in November that it will reduce the goods it imports from China by as much as 45% over the next year.
At a press conference on Thursday, Priest said U.S. footwear companies are waiting for clearer policy.
“All of these actions are inflationary,” he said. “You have to pay the piper somewhere.”
China isn’t a major manufacturer of cosmetics, but E.l.f. Beauty, a drugstore staple and popular brand among younger shoppers, makes about 80% of its makeup in the region.
During an interview with CNBC late last year, CEO Tarang Amin said the company could be forced to raise prices if the tariff hikes take effect — a risky move considering its low prices are one of its main draws.
A carrier trailer transports Toyota cars for delivery while queuing at the border customs control to cross into the U.S., at the Otay border crossing in Tijuana, Mexico May 31, 2019.
Jorge Duenes | Reuters
Mexico: Cars, beer and avocados
Over the last decade, U.S. consumers have developed a bigger appetite for avocados and Mexican beers. They’ve also gotten used to buying cars from major U.S. automakers with a lot of manufacturing in Mexico.
Tariffs on Mexican imports could endanger those habits, particularly for price-sensitive shoppers.
Most major automakers have factories in the U.S. However, they still heavily rely on imports from other countries including Mexico to meet American consumer demand.
Under the North American Free Trade Agreement and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that replaced it, automakers increasingly looked to Mexico as a less expensive place to produce vehicles than in the U.S. or Canada.
Nearly every major automaker operating in the U.S. has at least one plant in Mexico, including the top six-selling automakers that accounted for more than 70% of U.S. sales in 2024.
The industry is deeply integrated between the countries, with Mexico importing 49.4% of all auto parts from the U.S. In turn, Mexico exports 86.9% of its auto parts production to the U.S., according to the International Trade Administration.
Wells Fargo estimates that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada imports would put most of the adjusted earnings of General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis at risk. The firm estimates the impact of 5%, 10% and 25% tariffs to be $13 billion, $25 billion and $56 billion, respectively, across the three companies.
Most notably, GM and Stellantis both have massive plants in Mexico that produce highly profitable full-size pickup trucks. They, along with Ford and others, also have built EVs in Mexico to lower costs.
Mexico is also home to the top-selling beer in the U.S. In 2023, Constellation Brands’ Modelo overtook the crown from Bud Light. Constellation also owns Corona, which ranks in the top 10 U.S. beer brands, and fast-growing Pacifico.
Bottles of Modelo Especial beer sit on a table in Los Angeles on June 14, 2023.
Mario Tama | Getty Images
All of the company’s beer brands are imported from Mexico, and beer accounted for 85% of the company’s sales in the first three quarters of its fiscal year.
If Trump implements the tariffs, Constellation’s cost of goods sold would rise by roughly 16%, according to estimates from Wells Fargo Securities.
The company would likely choose to offset the levies by raising prices, because moving production doesn’t seem like an option due to a 2013 antitrust settlement. Constellation has spent billions of dollars in recent years to expand its Mexican production capacity.
On the company’s latest earnings conference call, Constellation CEO Bill Newlands said “it’s really too early to hypothesize” about how the tariffs will play out.
“As you would expect, we have a lot of permutations that we have considered and certainly we’ll adjust our approach depending on what plays out as we go forward,” he told analysts on Jan. 10.
Uncertainty about tariffs has led a number of Wall Street analysts to downgrade Constellation’s stock since Trump announced his intention to reignite a trade war with Mexico.
A farmer harvests avocados at an orchard in the municipality of Uruapan, Michoacan State, Mexico, on Oct. 19, 2016.
Ronaldo Schemidt | Afp | Getty Images
Avocados have proven less easy to substitute than beers.
The fruit, once a rare sight in U.S. grocery stores, has become a staple of produce displays, thanks to the growing popularity of Mexican food and diets that call for “healthy fats.”
From June 2023 to June 2024, the U.S. imported more than 2.4 billion pounds of Mexican Hass avocados.
In the U.S., avocados are grown in California, Florida and Hawaii. But roughly 90% of the avocados eaten in the U.S. are grown in Mexico, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
The country is one of the few places that can produce the fruit year round, ensuring that consumers can eat avocado toast in the summer and guacamole on Super Bowl Sunday.
Over the years, avocado consumers have proven that they are willing to pay more for the fruit. While avocado demand has roughly doubled over the last decade, prices have also climbed.
“There’s nothing like an avocado … There are times of the year that yes, our prices go a little bit higher, but I feel like that is also part of the norm with our consumers. We don’t see a great dip in our consumption when those prices are a little bit higher,” Alvaro Luque, CEO of the nonprofit Avocados from Mexico, told CNBC.
Chipotle Mexican Grill famously charges a premium for adding guacamole, but the chain’s customers have largely shrugged off price increases across its menu over the last few years. The burrito chain is one of the few restaurant companies that reported traffic growth quarter after quarter last year.
Outside of avocados and cars, some companies make clothing in Mexico, too. Kontoor Brands, for example, has turned to the region to make some of its Wrangler jeans. While some of its denim currently retails for about $60 at Macy’s, that could rise to as much as $75 with tariffs factored in.
Canada: Cars, coats and French fries
Tariffs on Canadian goods would be another blow for automakers and car buyers. French fries and winter coats also risk getting pricier for consumers.
Canada exported $27 billion of cars in 2022, trailing only crude petroleum as its top export, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
Tariffs on Canadian vehicles would impact Detroit automakers the most, but there would likely be consequences across the industry depending on changes to parts from suppliers such as Canada-based Magna. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and other politicians and industry officials have described Trump’s tariff proposal as an existential threat to the country’s recovering automotive industry.
Five automakers — Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota Motor and Honda Motor — produced 1.54 million light-duty vehicles last year in the province, largely for U.S. consumers.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer warned on Wednesday that potential 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada would harm the U.S. auto sector, increase vehicle prices and benefit China.
“Think about this: 70% of all the auto parts we make in Michigan go directly to our neighbors. … The only winner in that equation is China. They would love nothing more than to watch us cripple American’s auto ecosystem all by ourselves. This is a matter of national security. We cannot let that happen,” she said during a speech at the Detroit Auto Show.
Salt on french fries
Peter Dazeley | Getty Images
But it wouldn’t just be the auto industry that feels the pressure from Canadian tariffs.
Consider the humble French fry: Canada exports roughly $40.5 billion in agricultural goods to the U.S. annually, including $1.7 billion in frozen French fries and other frozen potato products, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the country’s counterpart to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Canada’s frozen French fries largely come from McCain Foods. The Canadian family-owned company says that one out of every four fries eaten globally comes from its facilities. The company has seven Canadian factories and 11 in the U.S, according to its subsidiaries’ websites.
As the last year has shown, consumers have grown more price sensitive at grocery stores and in fast-food drive-thru lanes, making it unlikely that they’d swallow a price increase offsetting the tariff.
If Trump does implement steeper tariffs on Canadian goods, McCain could shift even more of its production to the U.S. Suppliers could jump ship to a U.S. rival like Lamb Weston. Luckily, many French fry suppliers, including the Idaho-based Lamb Weston, have expanded their capacity since the Covid pandemic.
A view inside Canada Goose’s U.S. flagship store in New York City.
Noam Galai | Wireimage | Getty Images
Tariffs on Canadian goods could also affect apparel.
Canada Goose has built its reputation on high-end outerwear for chilly temperatures, made in Canada. About 70% of the retailer’s merchandise is made in the country, and 30% is made in Europe at a factory that the company owns in Romania and at contractors in other parts of the continent.
A company spokesperson declined to comment on how Canada Goose is preparing for tariffs and whether it will increase prices. More
