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In January 1944 the Office of Strategic Services, an American wartime intelligence agency, issued a short document. The “Simple Sabotage Field Manual” offered advice on how ordinary citizens in occupied Europe could disrupt the German war machine.To cause physical damage, the guide tells the “citizen-saboteur” to use everyday items like salt, nails, pebbles and candles as weapons. This bit of the guide is a window into historical derring-do: dried-up sponges that can expand to plug sewer systems, jammed locks on unguarded buildings, various references to emery dust.But the guide also outlines a less direct sort of sabotage, which is alarmingly familiar to anyone who works in an office today. This form of obstruction involves behaviour that confuses, demoralises and delays. Manager-saboteurs should ensure that three people have to approve things when one would do. Employees should spread disturbing rumours. Everyone should “give lengthy and incomprehensible explanations when questioned”. At some point a wartime effort to hurt the Nazis appears to have been mistaken for a serious guide on how to run the modern workplace.No bit of the manual is more recognisable than its advice on how to turn meetings into weapons of mass distraction. Hold them when there is more important work to be done, it urges. Talk as often as possible and at immense length. Reopen questions that have already been decided. Bring up irrelevant issues whenever you can.It’s hard not to read all this and ponder if your own organisation is being targeted by an enemy. And once that thought enters your mind, you also start to wonder whether all sorts of behaviour reflect instructions in a revised edition.• Call hybrid meetings whenever possible to maximise inefficiency. If you are in the room together, initiate side conversations to sow confusion among remote attendees.• If you are on Zoom, unmute yourself slowly or not at all. Pretend not to be able to hear anything even when you can. Look baffled. Put on eight different pairs of headphones. Shrug theatrically. Entire geological eras can pass in this way.• Alternatively, dial into the meeting on your phone, unmute yourself and put the phone in your pocket. Go for a long walk. If this is done right, a single person can force tens of others to abandon a meeting.• Always turn up to meetings a few minutes late. This is especially important if you hold a senior role. Nothing will happen until you get there except for some awkward interchanges about weekend plans. If discussions have started, ask for a quick recap. If you have co-conspirators, stagger your arrival times so that you are constantly going back to the beginning.• Don’t have an agenda. Just turn up and look expectant. If there is pre-reading, don’t do it. Never agree on action items or take minutes.• If there is an agenda, take advantage of “the law of triviality”, a rule of thumb coined in 1957 by Cyril Northcote Parkinson. This refers to an imaginary committee whose members are asked to decide on proposals for a nuclear power plant and a new bike shed. Lacking expertise in nuclear power, the committee nods the plant through. Where everyone is an authority, like the bike shed, endless debate ensues. Whatever your version of the bike shed is—coffee machines, Oxford commas—bring it up early.• If you are giving a presentation after someone else, take an absolute age to find it. Faff around in the wrong folder. Act as if you can’t see the slide-show button until someone else points it out.• Say things like “there are no bad ideas”, so that everyone offers up their own bad ideas. At the end ask “does anyone have anything else?” and wait for as long as it takes for someone to fill the silence. Hopefully, it will be about the coffee machine and everything will kick off again. Conclude by saying that you think it has been a very useful meeting but don’t specify in what way.If you are behaving like this inadvertently, listen to the latest episode of Boss Class, our management podcast, to find out how to run a meeting better. If you are trying to cause disruption, your cover is blown. ■ More

Pfizer wants a chunk of the budding weight loss drug market, which it believes could eventually grow to $90 billion.
But analysts said that upcoming data on Pfizer’s experimental obesity pill, danuglipron, will be crucial to how competitive the company can be against Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
Investors want to see Pfizer’s drug cause a similar level of weight loss as a once-daily pill from Eli Lilly in an phase two trial in obese patients with diabetes.

CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images

As its Covid gains evaporate, Pfizer wants a chunk of the budding weight loss drug market. 
Analysts say upcoming data on Pfizer’s experimental obesity pill, danuglipron, will be crucial in determining how competitive the company can be against the space’s dominant players Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

Those companies helped spark the weight loss drug industry gold rush over the last year with their weekly obesity and diabetes injections, such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro. They are now racing to develop their own pills for obesity and diabetes. 
Investors are waiting for Pfizer to release phase two trial data on its twice-daily pill, in obese patients without diabetes, by the end of the year. They want to see the drug cause a similar level of weight loss as a once-daily pill from Eli Lilly. Investors are also eager for Pfizer to release trial data early next year on a once-daily version of danuglipron, which is seen as the more competitive form of the drug.
Pfizer sees a major opportunity in the segment, as it looks to rebound from plummeting demand for its Covid products and reverse a roughly 40% share price drop this year.
CEO Albert Bourla said in January that the market for GLP-1s – a class of obesity and diabetes drugs that mimic a gut hormone to suppress a person’s appetite – could eventually grow to $90 billion, and the company wants to capture $10 billion of that segment with an oral treatment. 
Investors have become more pessimistic about Pfizer’s potential in the weight loss drug industry since the company scrapped its experimental once-daily pill in June, citing elevated liver enzymes in people who took it. That left Pfizer with the twice-daily danuglipron, which Wall Street is less excited about because it would be less convenient than a once-a-day treatment. 

Encouraging results from the trials may trigger the same enthusiasm for Pfizer that has boosted the share prices of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly this year.
“If Pfizer’s data is positive, then I think people might be able to look beyond all this Covid overhang,” Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Louise Chen told CNBC. 
A weight loss pill could be a boon for all three companies. Oral drugs are typically easier to manufacture than injections, and more convenient for doctors to prescribe and patients to take. Pills could also potentially help alleviate the supply constraints plaguing many of their injectable counterparts as demand for the drugs soars. 

Eli Lilly’s pill sets the bar for efficacy 

Ahead of the phase two trial data, several analysts have said Pfizer’s twice-daily pill has to be about as effective as Eli Lilly’s once-a-day pill to be competitive. That means at least a 14% to 15% weight loss, Chen told CNBC.
Leerink Securities analyst David Risinger wrote in October that Pfizer’s danuglipron needs to show weight reduction in the “mid-teens” percentages to be considered competitive with Eli Lilly’s pill, which is called orforglipron. 
Obese or overweight patients who took 45 milligrams of Eli Lilly’s pill once a day lost up to 14.7% of their body weight, or 34 pounds, after 36 weeks, according to the company’s phase two trial results. 
Those results appear consistent with the weight reduction caused by a high-dose oral version of Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide – the active ingredient used in Ozempic and Wegovy – but came over a shorter trial period.
Overweight or obese patients who took 50 milligrams of Novo Nordisk’s drug once a day saw an average weight loss of 15.1% after 68 weeks, according to phase three clinical trial results released in June. 
Notably, Novo Nordisk already markets a low-dose oral version of semaglutide under the name Rybelsus for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes.
Pfizer’s upcoming phase two trial data will provide a glimpse of twice-daily danuglipron’s effects over a longer time period than the company’s previous studies of the drug. The study examined the weight loss effect of the treatment in more than 600 adults with obesity after 26 or 32 weeks at different dosage amounts.
In an earlier midstage trial, patients with Type 2 diabetes who took a 120-milligram version of danuglipron twice a day lost around 10 pounds on average after 16 weeks.
Another midstage trial found that diabetic patients who took a 200-milligram version of danuglipron twice a day lost nearly 12 pounds, or 5.8% of their weight, on average after 12 weeks. 

Investors still want to see a once-daily version 

Even if Pfizer’s upcoming data is encouraging, many investors will still be eager to see the efficacy and safety profile of a once-daily version next year. 
Physicians generally prefer once-daily pills over twice-daily drugs, Wells Fargo analyst Mohit Bansal said in a research note in June. 
Health experts also previously told CNBC that patients often forget to take a medication if they need to do it twice, the experts said. 
A once-daily danuglipron dose also could quell concerns about the potentially higher level of gastrointestinal side effects – such as nausea and vomiting –  associated with the twice-daily version. 

More CNBC health coverage

Leerink Partners’ Risinger wrote in an October note that the proportion of patients who discontinue treatment with Pfizer’s twice-daily danuglipron in the phase two trial will likely be higher than those who stopped taking Eli Lilly’s orforglipron. He said that’s partly because danuglipron’s total daily dose is far higher, which may cause more adverse effects.
Analysts said Pfizer appears to believe a once-daily version of the drug could lessen gastrointestinal side effects.
They pointed to Pfizer’s second-quarter earnings call, when the company’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, suggested that a once-daily version may improve a patient’s tolerability of the drug, which could lessen the gastrointestinal side effects “that have been seen as limiting” danuglipron.
The bigger question is whether a once-daily version of the pill will be ready for a phase three trial in 2024, which is seen as the next big step toward potential Food and Drug Administration approval.
Pfizer thinks it’s possible. During the company’s third-quarter earnings call, Dolsten said a pivotal late-stage trial for the once-a-day version is “within our reach” next year. More

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is going to be the subject of a movie based on the biography by Walter Isaacson.
“Requiem for a Dream” auteur Darren Aronofsky is slated to direct it.
Actors have scored numerous Oscar nominations and wins for their work on Aronofsky movies.

SpaceX, Twitter and electric car maker Tesla CEO Elon Musk, attends a US Senate bipartisan Artificial Intelligence (AI) Insight Forum at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on September 13, 2023.
Stefani Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

Maybe the hottest question in Hollywood right now is: Who will play Elon Musk?
News broke Friday that hot-ticket indie studio A24 snagged the rights to film Walter Isaacson’s biography of the controversial billionaire Tesla and SpaceX chief. NBC News reported that the agreement came after a highly competitive bidding war involving multiple studios and filmmakers.

As if that weren’t head-turning enough – A24, which dominated last year’s Oscars, is popular among film buffs for edgy fare like “Midsommar” and “Talk to Me” – Darren Aronofsky is attached to direct the biopic.
The chance to play such a divisive figure as Musk would be catnip to most actors anyway. But the chance to work with Aronofsky is likely an added bonus. His ambitious movies often demand actors go to award-show-worthy extremes, giving him a great track record of steering performers to Oscar nominations and wins.
Earlier this year, Brendan Fraser won best actor for his role as a reclusive and depressed professor in Aronofsky’s “The Whale,” while Hong Chau received a best supporting actress nomination. In 2011, Natalie Portman won best actress for the director’s psychological ballet drama “Black Swan.” Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei were both nominated in 2009 for “The Wrestler.” Before that, Ellen Burstyn was nominated for best actress in 2001 for Aronofsky’s disturbing drug-addiction drama “Requiem for a Dream.”

Darren Aronofsky attends the UK Premiere of ‘The Whale’ at the Royal Festival Hall during the 66th BFI London Film Festival in London, United Kingdom on October 11, 2022.
Wiktor Szymanowicz | Future Publishing | Getty Images

But the Oscar mojo wouldn’t belong entirely to Aronofsky.
Isaacson’s Steve Jobs biography supplied the source material for the 2015 Danny Boyle film of the same name, which netted Michael Fassbender a best actor nomination for playing the late Apple mastermind. Another polarizing tech figure, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, was the subject of David Fincher’s 2010 drama, “The Social Network,” which led to star Jesse Eisenberg snagging a best actor nomination.

It remains to be seen who will end up getting the Musk role, which will draw more scrutiny than most casting decisions in Hollywood, given the billionaire’s outspoken and provocative presence on social media. Aronofsky’s protagonists also tend to be irreparably flawed and self-destructive.
At the moment, though, Musk appears happy with the way it’s going. “Glad Darren is doing it. He is one of the best,” he posted on his platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
CNBC has asked Musk about whom he’d like to see play him in the movie. More

“The Marvels” generated an estimated $47 million domestically over its debut weekend, the lowest in franchise history.
Initial predictions saw the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe film opening to between $75 million and $80 million domestically.
The only MCU films that have opened lower than $60 million have been 2015′s “Ant-Man” and 2008′s “Incredible Hulk.”
Disney and Marvel Studios have struggled to reconnect with audiences in the post-“Endgame” era.

Brie Larson stars at Carol Danvers aka Captain Marvel in Marvel Studios’ “The Marvels.”

“The Marvels” didn’t go higher, further or faster during its opening weekend in theaters.
The latest entrant in the Marvel Cinematic Universe hauled in an estimated $47 million domestically over its debut weekend, the lowest in the 30-plus-film franchise’s history.

Initial predictions saw the film opening at between $75 million and $80 million domestically, but those figures shrunk to a range between $60 million and $65 million ahead of Friday’s opening.
Internationally, “The Marvels” garnered $63.3 million in ticket sales, bringing its global haul to $110.3 million.

Lowest-grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe openings

“The Marvels” (2023) — $47 million
“The Incredible Hulk” (2008) — $55.4 million
“Ant-Man” (2015) — $57.2 million
“Captain America: The First Avenger” (2011) — $65.1 million
“Thor” (2011) — $65.7 million
“The Eternals” (2021) — $71.3 million

Source: Comscore

“Despite posting the lowest domestic debut for the MCU, ‘The Marvels’ proved once again the importance of the international marketplace for the Marvel brand,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The film will now rely on Thanksgiving holiday corridor moviegoing to help move the big budget superhero film closer to profitability and help to determine the film’s ultimate success at the box office. ”
While critics were lukewarm on “The Marvels,” giving the flick a 62% on Rotten Tomatoes, audiences were more receptive with an 85% score. Still, Disney had an uphill battle drawing moviegoers to theaters for its 33rd MCU film, which the company likely understood. CEO Bob Iger has already said this year that the studio would scale back its Marvel slate.

After the ‘Endgame’

After 2019’s “Avengers: Endgame,” which wrapped up storylines and arcs for popular characters like Captain America (Chris Evans) and Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.), Marvel Studios’ theatrical and streaming content has been hit-or-miss with audiences. It has also had a difficult time marketing its new projects to audiences, as it seeks to hit nostalgic notes but also push its storytelling forward.
“Marvel has simply set a very high standard for themselves,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “When a new film or series is released, they have more pressure to stand on their own while also pushing the universe forward.”
Not to mention, the studio inundated Disney+ with series in an effort to pad its platform, making some fans feel like they had to slog through hours of stories in order to understand what was happening in the films.
“Expanding the MCU brand past the goldilocks zone of balanced exposure without feeling like homework to the casual audience has created a challenge for the franchise to begin correcting for,” Robbins said.
That is perhaps why “The Marvels” landed the second-lowest opening day for a MCU film, securing just $21.5 million on Friday. This figure includes $6.6 million from Thursday night previews. The only film to snare fewer ticket sales on its first day in domestic theaters was 2008’s “The Incredible Hulk,” which was the second-ever MCU film after “Iron Man” became a surprise smash earlier that year.
Robbins was quick to underscore that this box office stumble doesn’t mean that audiences are ready to give up on the MCU. After all, the franchise has generated nearly $30 billion since 2008.
“In fact, this underwhelming box office performance occurs at the same time ‘Loki’s’ second season is, ironically, drawing praise as one of the few Disney+ Marvel series to resonate positively with a big part of the fan base,” he said.
To be sure, a $47 million opening, is not bad for any film, but in comparison to the high highs that Marvel has achieved in the last decade, it is viewed as a disappointment. It could also act as a catalyst for leadership at the studio to rethink its future release plans.
Already, Iger has said he is looking at the company’s overall theatrical and streaming strategy to pare down how much content it makes.
“At the time the pandemic hit, we were leaning into a huge increase in how much we were making,” Iger said during Disney’s earnings call last week. “And I’ve always felt that quantity can be actually a negative when it comes to quality, and I think that’s exactly what happened. We lost some focus.”
Additionally, Marvel Studios is facing an uphill battle with actor Jonathan Majors, whom it chose to take on the role of Kang, the next big bad in the MCU. Majors is embroiled in legal troubles stemming from allegations of assault and abuse.
“If any IP has the depth and capability to do that, it’s Marvel under the leadership of Kevin Feige and his teams,” said Robbins. “This is certainly a crossroads moment from a creative and business standpoint. Perhaps the relative slowdown in Marvel content next year will provide a healthy and necessary buffer for the studio, for Disney, and for audiences.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Rotten Tomatoes. More

Taylor Swift postponed a show in Buenos Aires for Friday until Sunday.
LATAM Airlines, the largest carrier in South America, said it wouldn’t charge customers date-change fees or differences in fare so they can stay in the city longer.
Industry executives told CNBC that it was a highly unusual measure.

Allen J. Schaben | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

Like hurricanes, blizzards or wildfires, Taylor Swift is now prompting an airline to waive ticket-change fees.
The popstar said she was postponing a show in Argentina’s capital scheduled for Friday until Sunday because of heavy rain, writing on X, the platform formerly called Twitter: “due to the weather being so truly chaotic it would be unsafe to try and put on this concert.”

The Chile account of LATAM Airlines, the largest carrier in South America, reached out to customers on X: “#AttentionSwifties: we know your planes changed so starting today we are updating our flexibility policy for those with flights from Buenos Aires” for Saturday or Sunday.
The Chie-based carrier said it is waiving both ticket-change fees and differences in fare if travelers can fly anytime until Nov. 17 after Swift’s show at Argentina’s largest stadium was postponed.
Some customers complained to LATAM on social media, however, that they were having trouble finding seats and that the carrier told them about the waiver too late. The airline didn’t immediately comment on whether it is adding additional flights.
Airlines routinely add extra flights for events like high-profile concerts, conferences like CES, or sports.
But a change fee waiver when a concert is canceled or is postponed is very unusual, industry executives told CNBC, and is also a sign of how much her tour drives bookings. While it might be a new era for airline waivers, The Eras Tour has impacted other industries like hotels. More

Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy slashed the risk of serious cardiovascular complications in people with obesity and heart disease.
Researchers presented the full results of Novo’s Select trial Saturday at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions and simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The findings could expand use of Wegovy and help Novo maintain its lead over Eli Lilly, whose competing weight-loss drug Zepbound was approved in the U.S. earlier this week.

Still life of Wegovy an injectable prescription weight loss medicine that has helped people with obesity. It should be used with a weight loss plan and physical activity. 
Michael Siluk | UCG | Getty Images

Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy cut the risk of serious cardiovascular complications in people with obesity and heart disease in a closely watched trial, demonstrating a particularly large effect on heart attacks, a promising new frontier for the drug.
The roughly 17,500-person Select study tested Wegovy in people with obesity and heart disease but who did not have diabetes. Weekly injections of Wegovy slashed the overall risk of heart attack, stroke and death from cardiovascular causes by 20%, according to detailed results from the trial presented Saturday at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions and simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Novo Nordisk disclosed topline data from the study in August. 

The findings could expand insurance coverage of Wegovy, a major barrier thus far for the drug and similar GLP-1 agonists, and spur broader use of the anti-obesity drug.
“This is the first time that medication approved for chronic obesity management can be considered life saving,” said Dr. Robert Kushner, a professor of medicine in endocrinology at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine who was involved with the study.
The new data could also help the Danish pharmaceutical company maintain its lead over Eli Lilly, whose competing weight-loss drug Zepbound was approved in the U.S. earlier this week. Zepbound has been shown to help people lose more weight, but it hasn’t yet demonstrated an effect on cardiovascular outcomes. 
“If you look at where the insurance companies are going to be obliged to go, they’re going to be obliged to go with the drug that reduces cardiovascular events,” said Dr. Howard Weintraub, clinical director of the Center for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease at NYU Langone Heart who was involved with the study.

Trial results

Wegovy reduced the risk of non-fatal heart attack by 28% in the five-year trial. It produced a smaller 7% reduction in the occurrence of non-fatal stroke, though few strokes were seen in the trial overall.

What’s more, Wegovy started to show a reduction in overall cardiovascular events within months of participants starting the drug, with the difference between the drug and placebo widening as the study continued. Researchers observed that effect even before people lost significant weight, a “fascinating” finding that suggests both weight loss and the drug itself could be playing a role in heart health, said Dr. Ania Jastreboff, director of the Yale Obesity Research Center.
“I think it’s all additive, and I don’t think we can parse out one from the other,” Jastreboff, who was not involved in the study, said at a press briefing.
About two-thirds of participants had blood sugar levels that put them in the range of prediabetes. Wegovy decreased progression to diabetes by 73%, suggesting the drug could be used as an early treatment. Novo’s Ozempic, which uses the same active ingredient as Wegovy, is approved for diabetes. 
The study enrolled both patients whose body-mass index met the threshold for overweight or obesity, though most of the patients were considered obese.

Side effects and limitations

Almost 17% of people receiving Wegovy in the trial stopped taking the drug, mainly because of gastrointestinal issues like vomiting and diarrhea, double the rate of people who discontinued the placebo. But more people in the control group experienced serious adverse events such as cardiac disorders and medical procedures. 
The discontinuations may reflect less familiarity with Wegovy among doctors involved in the study, said Kushner, who specializes in caring for patients who are overweight or have obesity. Adjusting the dosage or tweaking diet can help people navigate unpleasant side effects.
Participants also lost less weight in this study than previous ones examining Wegovy, though this study didn’t incorporate lifestyle changes and it enrolled people with different characteristics. 
One limitation of the study was its lack of diversity. Nearly three-quarters of the participants were male, and even more were white. Just about 4% of participants were Black.
Regardless, doctors expect the results to increase the number of people who take Wegovy. 
Seeing a diabetes drug producing positive cardiovascular and metabolic effects “opens a new door to treat obese patients with cardiovascular disease,” said Dr. George Dangas, director of cardiovascular innovation for Mount Sinai Hospital. But it could take time and energy to incorporate it into clinical practice.
“Those are good problems to have,” Dangas said. “We have something good for the patient, that’s great.” 
— CNBC’s Patrick Manning contributed to this report.
CORRECTION: This article has been updated to correct the title of Dr. George Dangas, director of cardiovascular innovation for Mount Sinai Hospital. More

Airlines have a record 260 million seats to fill this quarter.
They’re offering more fare sales for off-peak travel to do it.
JetBlue, Spirit and Frontier all say average fares are dropping.

A Frontier Airlines airplane taxis past a Spirit Airlines aircraft at Indianapolis International Airport in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

FORT WORTH, Texas — Airlines have a record 260 million seats to fill this quarter, and to do it, they’re offering fares that will run you about the same as a pair of movie tickets.
Southwest Airlines, for example, last month offered one-way fares of $29 for flights early in the morning or at night, just one example of airline discounting for off-peak periods.

“I would characterize the amount of discounting or sales that we’re doing today as a bit more than normal,” Ryan Green, Southwest’s chief commercial officer, told reporters at the Skift Aviation Forum earlier this month. He said the industry’s increased capacity in recent months means there are more seats to fill, even though the carrier’s average fare was up in the last quarter from a year ago.
Leisure travelers, meanwhile, have largely returned to more traditional booking patterns after years of pandemic swings in demand, leaving airlines looking for ways to fill planes outside of holidays or other popular travel periods.
“Typically, you see a step increase in price at each seven-day mark before a flight,” said Scott Keyes, founder of Scott’s Cheap Flights, a flight-deal company that recently rebranded as Going. But airlines are either dropping last-minute fares or not raising them as much as usual, he said.
Airlines have scheduled a record 259.8 million seats for domestic flights in the fourth quarter, up nearly 8% from last year, on 1.86 million flights, up 6% from 2022, according to aviation-data firm Cirium.
Getting the balance right in the off-season is a challenge for airlines, which make the majority of their revenue in the second and third quarters during the busy spring and summer seasons. Most major carriers reported record revenue and strong demand during those periods, with some executives reporting higher growth for international destinations over domestic ones.

Falling fares

The U.S. inflation read for September showed airfare dropped more than 13% from a year earlier, while overall consumer prices rose.
JetBlue Airways said average fares dropped more than 12% in the third quarter during the same period of 2022 to $201.73.
Budget carrier Spirit Airlines said fares dropped nearly 28% from a year earlier to $48.73, though non-ticket revenue, which includes add-ons such as seat selection fees and checked bags, rose 1% to $67.70.
The Miramar, Florida-based airline, which JetBlue is trying to buy, warned about fare discounting before Thanksgiving and said, “unfortunately, we have not seen the anticipated return to a normal demand and pricing environment for the peak holiday periods.”
Fellow ultra-discounter Frontier Airlines said fares averaged a little more than $39 in the last quarter, down 32% from a year ago.
All three carriers forecast losses for the last three months of the year.

Rethinking capacity

Declining pricing power in the off-peak periods has forced carriers to rethink where they’re deploying their planes.
Southwest plans to slow its growth next year to address the shifting demand patterns, though CEO Bob Jordan described demand on an earnings call late last month as “strong.”
“Capacity is the most precious commodity you have to produce revenue, and you got to deploy that capacity as efficiently as possible against demand,” Jordan said during the Skift Aviation Forum.
The carrier is planning to fly less on nonpeak days, like Tuesdays, compared with higher-demand periods, a measure that also prioritizes crews’ time so they are ready fly more when it’s busy, Jordan said.
Frontier Airlines CEO Barry Biffle told CNBC that one thing the airline is changing is finding less crowded markets for its flights.
“We are concentrating our growth away from the saturated markets,” he said. “We will not shrink in Orlando and Vegas, but we’re probably not going to grow it either.”

Holiday demand is still strong

With shifting demand comes those eye-catching, double-digit fares.
But they’re usually gone quickly and are nearly guaranteed to be unavailable for peak holiday periods, with demand expected to hit or break records.
Delta Air Lines said it expects to carry between 6.2 million and 6.4 million passengers from Nov. 17 to Nov. 28 during the Thanksgiving period, compared with 5.7 million last year and 6.25 million in 2019. United Airlines said it expects to fly 5.9 million passengers from Nov. 17 to Nov. 29, up 13% from last year and 5% more than 2019. American Airlines forecast a record 7.8 million travelers from Nov. 16 to Nov. 28, up from 7 million last year and beating out 2019 by around 200,000 customers.
Southwest CEO Jordan said year-end holiday bookings are running ahead of last year’s pace.
Flight tracker Hopper said “good deal” domestic fares, which it defines as the bottom 10th percentile of available fares, are averaging $248 for Thanksgiving, down from $271 last year and $276 in 2019.

Could it last?

Airlines are now poring over their schedules for 2024 to try to best use their aircraft while they face higher costs such as fuel and labor that have pinched margins.
“You’re seeing carriers put out fares that look kind of like our fares, and what you should really think about is that that’s not going to be permanent,” Frontier’s CEO Biffle said, citing costs.
Carriers have gotten more sophisticated about addressing shifting demand patterns, meaning they can cut flights or capacity during travel lulls.
Next year, fares are likely to stabilize, but it’s too early to tell what promotional fares will be, said Henry Harteveldt, founder of travel industry consulting firm Atmosphere Research Group.
“If inflation really continues at the torrid place it has been, if we see hiring soften, airlines may feel a need to invest in deeper promotion,” he said.
One advantage for full-service carriers is the variety of fares and products they can offer, from no-frills basic economy to first class, Harteveldt. That means they could increase their inventory of cheaper basic economy fares during weaker demand periods, or raise fares when demand is high for premium seats.
Airlines “have the most sophisticated cash registers of any industry,” he said.

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Billionaire investor Ron Baron told CNBC on Friday that he expects SpaceX to IPO its Starlink satellite internet service “in 2027 or so.”
Baron is a major backer of Elon Musk’s companies.
SpaceX leadership, including Musk, have discussed spinning off Starlink to take it public through an initial public offering once the business was “in a smooth sailing situation.”

Billionaire investor Ron Baron told CNBC on Friday that he expects SpaceX to IPO its Starlink satellite internet service “in 2027 or so.”
“We think that by the time they go public with SpaceX, with Starlink … in 2027 or so, four years, the company will be worth $250 billion to $300 billion,” Baron said, speaking to CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin.

Baron is a major backer of Elon Musk’s companies. Tesla and SpaceX rank as two of Baron Capital’s largest holdings. Earlier this month, Baron told MarketWatch his eponymous firm’s ownership of SpaceX stock was currently valued at about $1.7 billion.
SpaceX didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment Friday.

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The company’s leadership, including Musk, have discussed spinning off Starlink to take it public through an initial public offering once the business was “in a smooth sailing situation.” But timing of a Starlink IPO remains uncertain. Last year, Musk told employees that taking the business public wasn’t likely until 2025 or later.
Earlier this month, Musk announced that Starlink “achieved breakeven cash flow,” although he did not specify whether that milestone was hit on an operating basis or for a specified time period. SpaceX has launched more than 5,000 Starlink satellites to date and says the service has more than two million subscribers.
SpaceX’s valuation has soared to about $150 billion, with Starlink seen as a key economic driver of the company’s goals.

Asked why Musk would take public part or all of his space company, which has been private since its founding in 2002, Baron said “a lot of people have been investors for a long time, and they probably want exits.”
“I don’t want an exit in my lifetime, but there are people who want exits,” Baron said.

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