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Novavax sees a pathway to survival that involves early development of an updated Covid vaccine before the fall season.
The Maryland-based biotech company is also working to drastically reduce costs.
But Novavax faces a number of challenges, including competing with Pfizer and Moderna in the commercial coronavirus vaccine market and a pending arbitration with Gavi.

Medical syringes and Novavax logo displayed in the background are seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on December 2, 2021.
Jakub Porzycki | NurPhoto | Getty Images

Novavax has a clear message for Wall Street: The cash-strapped Covid vaccine maker sees a pathway to survival.
Maryland-based Novavax said as much last month when it reported its first-quarter financial results and unveiled a broad cost-cutting push along with a higher-than-expected 2023 revenue forecast of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion. That report stood in stark contrast to the previous quarter, when the biotech company raised doubts about its ability to stay in business. 

But Wall Street hasn’t entirely bought into the recovery plan: Shares of Novavax are still down roughly 18% since the start of the year after shedding more than 90% of their value in 2022.
And staying afloat through 2023 and beyond may not be an easy task. 
The 36-year-old company will continue to rely on its protein-based Covid vaccine – its only commercially available product – for most of its revenue this year. 
Covid shot sales will largely depend on Novavax’s ability to deliver an updated version of its jab in time for the fall, when the U.S. government is expected to shift vaccine distribution to the private sector. Even if Novavax can meet that timeline, it will face tough competition from mRNA rivals Pfizer and Moderna. 
Wall Street is also waiting to see how Novavax will execute its cost reduction plan, and how a pending $700 million arbitration over a canceled vaccine purchase agreement could play out.

The company will need to juggle those near-term challenges before it can sharpen its focus on its promising vaccine pipeline, which includes a combination shot targeting Covid and the flu, a stand-alone flu vaccine and a new high-dose Covid shot.
“The next six to nine months are going to be a really critical period for the company,” Cowen analyst Brendan Smith told CNBC. 

Competing in the commercial market

Novavax, now led by a new CEO, John Jacobs, was an early front-runner in the Covid vaccine race, but the company’s two-shot regimen won U.S. approval under emergency use just last year due to regulatory and manufacturing delays. 
Now, Novavax’s biggest priorities are to manufacture an updated Covid shot by the fall and to capture commercial market share after lagging so far behind Pfizer and Moderna. Some analysts believe the company has a reasonable chance of doing so, but note that competition with the two mRNA giants could remain a challenge. 
“Given [Novavax’s] financial situation, they really need to be able to bring in some commercial sales this coming fall and winter,” Smith said. “That will ensure they remain a viable entity in future cycles as well.” 
Once the U.S. government’s supply of free Covid vaccines runs out, all three companies will sell updated shots directly to health-care providers. 
Those shots will target a variant of the virus — selected by a panel of advisors to the Food and Drug Administration on Thursday — that’s expected to circulate most prominently this fall and winter.
Novavax is giving itself a “head start” on developing that updated shot because the company’s protein-based vaccine takes longer to develop and manufacture – around three to six months in total – than its messenger RNA counterparts, said Silvia Taylor, executive vice president at the drugmaker.
Analysts estimate it typically takes closer to six months to deliver a protein-based vaccine and three months to produce an mRNA shot.
Novavax is working closely with global regulators on strain selection guidance to start development as early as possible. Taylor added that Novavax is already developing shots that target different strains, including the omicron subvariant XBB.1.5, the dominant strain of the virus globally. 
The World Health Organization last month recommended that new Covid shots target XBB variants, which Taylor called “extremely encouraging” guidance ahead of the FDA panel meeting. 
FDA staff on Monday also recommended the same strains ahead of the meeting.
Jefferies analyst Roger Song said he expects Novavax to be able to deliver its updated vaccine in time for the fall if the FDA advisors select a strain “within the current library” the company has been evaluating. It’s unlikely that the advisors will choose a completely new strain, he noted. 

A health worker prepares a dose of the Novavax vaccine as the Dutch Health Service Organization starts with the Novavax vaccination program on March 21, 2022 in The Hague, Netherlands.
Patrick Van Katwijk | Getty Images

Another upside for Novavax could be its use of protein-based technology, a decades-old method for fighting viruses used in routine vaccinations against hepatitis B and shingles.
Novavax’s shot works differently than Pfizer’s and Moderna’s mRNA vaccines, but achieves the same outcome: teaching your body how to fight Covid.
B. Riley Securities analyst Mayank Mamtani said Novavax could leverage the unique advantages of the company’s protein-based platform as part of its commercial marketing efforts.
“They have a theoretically compelling message that says, let’s try something new,” Mamtani told CNBC. “Let’s try a new vaccine that, in some cases, won’t make you miss work due to chills, a fever or other side effects you could have with mRNA.” 
Clinical trial data on Novavax’s vaccine suggests it is less likely to cause side effects compared with Pfizer’s and Moderna’s shots. Data also indicates that it has a similarly high rate of efficacy – around 90% – as that of its mRNA rivals. 
Still, Smith noted, the company will have to compete with the “enormous name-brand recognition” of Pfizer and Moderna, which have dominated the U.S. Covid vaccine market since the FDA approved their shots for emergency use in late 2020.
Those vaccines have received full approval from the FDA, while Novavax’s jab has not.

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The U.S. has administered more than 360 million vaccines and boosters from Pfizer and over 230 million from Moderna, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Novavax’s late entrance into the game has led to significantly lower uptake: The U.S. has administered just under 90,000 shots from the company.
Novavax will also have to compete at a time of “record low public interest” in getting Covid booster shots, Smith added. 
According to the CDC, only about 17% of the U.S. population has gotten Pfizer’s and Moderna’s bivalent omicron boosters, which have been available since September. 
“There’s still a number of headwinds kind of working against [Novavax,]” Smith said, adding that cost-cutting efforts could potentially hinder the company’s ability to compete in the commercial Covid vaccine market this fall. 
Novavax is pulling back spending at the same time it needs to ramp up its commercial sales team, making the timing “unfortunate in a much more broader context,” he said.

Cost-cutting plan 

Novavax is working to drastically cut costs, with plans that involve slashing roughly 25% of its global workforce. The company had just under 2,000 employees as of late February.
The drugmaker will also consolidate its facilities and infrastructure. Those moves are intended to reduce the company’s 2023 research and development expenses as well as selling, general and administrative costs, which together amounted to around $1.7 billion last year.
Novavax expects the cost-cutting plan to reduce that figure by approximately 20% to 25% this year and by 40% to 50% by 2024.
Jefferies’ Song said he is most focused on the 2024 cost reduction goal but noted the company needs to be careful about how much it decides to slash costs. 
“I hope that they can cut a little bit faster and bigger,” Song told CNBC. “But they also don’t want to overshoot what they need to cut and jeopardize their capabilities.” 
But Taylor emphasized that the plan will help Novavax refocus on its top priority: delivering an updated vaccine in the coming months.
“We feel like we’re in a good place in terms of operating with a relentless focus on our priorities and operating in a more efficient manner in order to be able to meet our objective of making our vaccine available for the season,” she told CNBC. 

Gavi arbitration

And, looming overhead is a pending $700 million arbitration related to Gavi, a nongovernmental global vaccine organization. 
Last year, Novavax terminated a Covid shot purchase agreement with Geneva-based Gavi, citing Gavi’s failure to procure the 350 million vaccine doses it agreed to buy in May 2021 on behalf of the COVAX Facility — a global program that aims to distribute Covid vaccines more equitably in lower-income countries.   
As part of the agreement with Gavi, Novavax said it received nonrefundable advance payments amounting to nearly $700 million. 
Gavi is now trying to recoup those prepayments. The organization argued in a Reuters interview last year that Novavax breached the agreement and failed to provide COVAX with vaccines from contractually specified locations. 

An elderly woman receives a dose of Covid-19 vaccine at a clinic on Dec. 12, 2022 in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China.
Ding Genhou | Visual China Group | Getty Images

Song called the Gavi arbitration the biggest uncertainty around Novavax. He said the company “may be in trouble” if it has to return the full $700 million to Gavi this year.
But he said there’s a good chance Novavax and Gavi will settle the arbitration on middle ground. That could involve Novavax repaying less than the full amount or establishing a repayment plan through 2024, Song added. 
Cowen’s Smith said, “If there’s one thing the market tends to dislike, it’s uncertainty.”
“We don’t know how the arbitration is going to play out or the timing of it, so that’s why I continue to categorize this as a major overhang for the stock,” Smith added.
Novavax’s Taylor declined to comment on the state of the ongoing arbitration, but said “we feel pretty good about our position.” 
“We’ll know soon enough what happens with that,” she added.  More

Disney announced a major shake-up for its movie release calendar, resulting in delays for multiple films within the Avatar, Avengers and Star Wars franchises.
There hasn’t been a Star Wars entry since “The Rise of Skywalker” in 2019.
The fifth “Avatar” is now slated for 2031.

Avatar: The Way of Water
Courtesy: Disney Co.

Disney on Tuesday revealed a shake-up of its movie release calendar, delaying several entries in the Avatar, Marvel and Star Wars franchises.
The company hasn’t elaborated on the decisions behind the release date rearrangements, although studios often adjust their schedules for a variety of reasons. The moves come as a writers strike cripples the film and television industry, which is causing production shutdowns that could affect release timelines. 

Various prominent films and shows have either halted or concluded production prematurely since the beginning of the strike. These include Netflix’s “Stranger Things,”  “AppleTV+’s “Severance” and Paramount’s “Evil,” CNBC reported in May. 
Disney did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 
James Cameron’s third “Avatar” movie was moved from 2024 to December 2025, with the fourth film following in 2029. The release calendar of the company indicates the fifth installment in the franchise is now slated for 2031. “Avatar,” released in 2009, and “Avatar: The Way of Water,” released late last year, are two of the three highest-grossing films worldwide.
In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the recently renamed “Captain America: Brave New World” will be delayed from May to July next year, with “Thunderbolts” shifting to December 2024, “Blade” moving to February 2025 and “Fantastic Four” now slated for May 2025.
The changes also affect the two upcoming Avengers movies in the MCU. “Avengers: The Kang Dynasty” has been pushed back a year to May 2026. “Avengers: Secret Wars” will not be released until May 2027. 

Actor Jonathan Majors, who played Kang in Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” was arrested for assault earlier this year and reportedly faces more accusations of abuse. He has denied the allegations through his attorneys, but was dropped by his longtime management company, previous reports said. Marvel has remained silent on Majors’ case.
After the box office disappointment of the actor’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” Disney CEO Bob Iger pondered whether Marvel should prioritize fresher characters rather than continuing to create third and fourth films for established legacy characters.
Disney also delayed a planned “Star Wars” movie from December 2025 to May 2026. It added another Star Wars movie to the schedule too — it’s set for December 2026. Disney has not released a Star Wars film since “The Rise of Skywalker” in 2019. More

Republican lawmakers, a dozen state attorneys general and several advocacy groups voiced their support for Illumina’s acquisition of cancer-test developer Grail.
They argued in the briefs that the FTC overstepped its authority in trying to unwind the merger that closed nearly two years ago. 
The $7.1 billion deal has faced broad opposition from regulators in the U.S. and the EU as well as from activist investor Carl Icahn.

Rafael Henrique | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Republican lawmakers, state attorneys general and several advocacy groups have voiced their support for Illumina’s acquisition of cancer-test developer Grail while the Federal Trade Commission fights to unwind the deal. 
The groups filed 14 amicus briefs Monday urging the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals to reverse an FTC order that would have Illumina undo the $7.1 billion Grail deal over concerns that it stifles competition. Last week, the San Diego-based DNA-sequencing company appealed the agency’s ruling.

Proponents of the deal argued in the court filings that the FTC overstepped its authority in trying to unwind the tie-up that closed nearly two years ago. They added that blocking the companies from merging could harm the development of life-saving technology.
“Unaccountable federal agency power undermines liberty, and overzealous, unfair agency enforcement impedes technological advancements benefitting citizens’ wellbeing,” attorneys general from 12 states said in one of the briefs. 
Those states are Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Carolina, Utah and Virginia. 
Thirty-four Republican lawmakers touted Grail’s early screening test, which can detect more than 50 types of cancers through a single blood draw. The test isn’t approved by the Food and Drug Administration, but it has raked in limited sales over the past year.
Grail needs Illumina to obtain regulatory approval and commercialize production of the test, which are “required steps to delivering the full benefits of these tests to the public and detecting cancer as quickly as possible,” the lawmakers argued. 

The FTC declined to comment on the filings.  
The deal has faced broad opposition. Last year, the European Union’s executive body, the European Commission, blocked the acquisition citing similar competition concerns. Illumina has appealed that order. 
And activist investor Carl Icahn, who holds a 1.4% stake in Illumina, launched a proxy fight with the company over the Grail deal. 
Illumina shareholders voted to oust the chair of its board late last month. Company CEO Francis deSouza stepped down on Sunday after weeks of harsh backlash from Icahn.
Icahn’s opposition stemmed from Illumina’s decision to close the acquisition without first gaining approval from antitrust regulators. More

Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks said Medicare price negotiations could potentially harm drug development. 
He referred to a provision in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act that will allow the Medicare program to negotiate prices on the costliest prescription drugs each year.
Ricks is the latest pharmaceutical executive to publicly blast the provision and law at large, which will likely reduce company profits.

David Ricks, CEO, Eli Lilly.
Scott Mlyn | CNBC

Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks on Tuesday said Medicare price negotiations, which aim to cut costs for older Americans, could potentially harm drug development. 
“I’m really worried about the harm this will do to new cures and possibilities in medicine,” Ricks said in an interview on CNBC’s “The Exchange.” 

Ricks was referring to a provision in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act that will allow the Medicare program to negotiate prices on the costliest prescription drugs each year.
He’s the latest pharmaceutical executive to publicly blast the provision and law at large, which will likely reduce company profits. Global drugmaker Merck last week sued the Biden administration over Medicare price negotiations in a bid to weaken the program.
Ricks said the “biggest problem” with the provision stems from a difference in timeline for negotiating prices on small-molecule drugs — meaning drugs made of chemicals that have low molecular weight — versus biologic medicines, or those derived from living sources such as animals or humans.
Under the Inflation Reduction Act provision, Medicare can start negotiating prices on small-molecule drugs as early as nine years after they receive U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval, compared with 13 years for biologics.

Ricks said that distinction is “going to really truncate investment” in small-molecule drugs, which are “one of the most efficient parts of health care.” 

“We’ll get fewer of [small-molecule drugs] because investors are already saying to me, ‘Why would you invest in more small molecules when biologics get 13 years before negotiations?'” Ricks said. 
Small-molecule drugs make up 90% of pharmaceutical drugs, according to a study in ScienceDirect. 
Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan in February expressed similar concerns about the varying timeline, saying it’s a top priority of the industry to correct the four-year gap between the two types of drugs, according to Fierce Pharma.
Another provision of the Inflation Reduction Act requires pharmaceutical companies to refund Medicare through rebates if the prices of their drugs rise faster than the rate of inflation. 
The first set of eligible prescription drugs was subject to Medicare inflation rebates starting April 1, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.  More

Fanatics held its second investor meeting Tuesday with 400 existing and prospective investors.
The company has been preparing to go public someday.
Fanatics investor Tom Brady made a surprise appearance at the meeting.

Fanatics founder and CEO Michael Rubin at his office in New York.
The Washington Post | Getty Images

Fanatics held its second investor day in nearly a year as the company quietly moves closer to an initial public offering, a source familiar with the matter tells CNBC.
More than 100 existing and prospective institutional investors from major firms such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays gathered Tuesday for the meeting at the NBA Players Association headquarters in New York to hear from Fanatics founder and CEO Michael Rubin, the source said. Another 300 people attended the meeting virtually on Zoom.

Leaders from all parts of the business gave presentations and took part in a Q&A session with the audience.
A spokesman for Fanatics said the company’s timeline for an IPO hasn’t changed.
Investors were also treated to a surprise visit by football great Tom Brady, an investor in the company.
Brady spoke to investors about business and leadership and mingled with the audience.
Florida-based Fanatics was founded in 2011 by Rubin, former co-owner of the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils. Fanatics now has exclusive licensing deals with the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and colleges and universities to make and sell official team merchandise.

Last November, Rubin gathered sell-side analysts for a meet-and-greet and to talk about his growth plans for the company.
In April, the company announced it was hiring Deborah Crawford from Meta to lead investor relations, a new position at the company.
Fanatics, the global platform company, is valued at $31 billion. It has experienced rapid growth and made several acquisitions in the past couple of years, including Topps trading cards and clothing brand Mitchell & Ness.
The company most recently has had its eyes on sports betting, scooping up PointsBet’s U.S. assets for about $150 million in May.
Fanatics is a two-time CNBC Disruptor 50 company. Sign up for our weekly, original newsletter that goes beyond the annual Disruptor 50 list, offering a closer look at private companies such as Fanatics that continue to innovate across every sector of the economy. More

Starbucks Workers United said dozens of the coffee chain’s U.S. stores weren’t allowed to decorate for Pride month this year.
Starbucks denied it has changed its policy and said local store leadership and employees have the latitude to decorate locations for Pride month.
The union’s claim comes as the LGBTQ+ community has faced a surge in attacks this year.

Marchers with Starbucks pass through the landmark intersection of Hollywood and Highland during the annual Pride Parade in Los Angeles, June 12, 2022.
David Mcnew | Getty Images

Starbucks Workers United said Tuesday that dozens of the coffee chain’s U.S. stores aren’t allowing employees to decorate for Pride month.
Starbucks said in a statement to CNBC that the company unwaveringly supports the LGBTQ+ community and hasn’t changed its policies for store decorations.

“There has been no change to any policy on this matter and we continue to encourage our store leaders to celebrate with their communities including for U.S. Pride month in June,” the company said.
A Starbucks spokesperson told CNBC the company’s security and safety manual provides broad guidance for stores around decorations. However, local store leaders and employees have latitude to make their own decorating choices within those guidelines.
The union’s claim comes as the LGBTQ+ community faces heightened attacks, ranging from protests to legislation to physical violence. Republican state lawmakers have targeted transgender people’s medical care and drag queens’ performances. Nearly 500 anti-LGBTQ+ bills have been introduced in state legislatures this session, according to an ACLU tally. At the same time, conservative activists have stoked backlash in recent months against corporations that have shown their support for the LGBTQ+ community, including Anheuser-Busch InBev, Kohl’s and North Face.
Starbucks has long had a reputation as a progressive company, bolstered by its history of supporting its LGBTQ+ workers, including transgender baristas. Its health benefits extended to same-sex partnerships before the U.S. legalized gay marriage in 2015. Workers have previously received buttons and attire celebrating LGBTQ+ rights. Starbucks’ insurance has covered gender reassignment surgery since 2013.
But Starbucks Workers United said baristas in at least 22 states have reported instances where district and store managers have told them they can’t decorate for Pride month or where store representatives have taken down Pride flags.

Some Massachusetts workers were told there weren’t enough labor hours to schedule partners to decorate, the union said. Managers told employees in Maryland some people didn’t feel represented by the “umbrella of pride,” according to the labor group.
In Oklahoma, workers were told restrictions on decorating were out of a concern for safety after recent attacks at Target stores, the union said. In late May, Target pulled some of its Pride merchandise, citing threats against its employees. Some of the retailer’s locations in the South also moved Pride collections to less visible areas on the floor. The Washington Post reported Target stores in at least five states were evacuated this weekend after bomb threats.
Starbucks workers in Oklahoma were also prohibited from hanging Pride flags in store windows. Starbucks policy prohibits blocking windows to ensure baristas have a clear view of the area outside stores.
The clash over Pride decorations also comes as Starbucks continues to battle its baristas over unionization. More than 300 company-owned locations have voted to unionize, but no stores have signed a collective bargaining agreement with Starbucks yet.
The union has accused Starbucks of delaying negotiations, which the company denies. Baristas have been trying to use public pressure to bring the coffee giant to the negotiating table. More

AT 78 LARRY ELLISON, the co-founder and chairman of Oracle, a business-software firm, is still brimming with energy. During the company’s latest quarterly earnings call on June 12th the septuagenarian rhapsodised youthfully about artificial intelligence (AI) and the latest cloud-computing technology. He has good reason to be in high spirits. Over the past year Mr Ellison’s wealth has rocketed to nearly $150bn, according to Forbes, a magazine that tracks such things, on the back of Oracle’s soaring share price. On June 13th Mr Ellison briefly passed Jeff Bezos, who founded Amazon, as the world’s third-richest man.Like Mr Ellison, Oracle might be seen as a dinosaur of American tech. It began life in 1977 as a database-software business, later expanding into applications for business functions such as finance, sales and supply-chain management. As a latecomer to the cloud, however, the business has ceded market share in recent years to Amazon, Google and Microsoft, three cloud giants that have aggressively expanded their business-software offerings. Oracle’s slice of the database-software market, which remains its bread and butter, fell from 43% in 2012 to 19% in 2022, according to Gartner, a research firm.Now the business looks to be turning a corner. To catch-up with rivals, it has been investing heavily in cloud computing. Capital expenditures in the past 12 months added up to $8.7bn, or 17% of sales, up from just 5% two years ago. Last year it acquired Cerner, a cloud-based health-records business, for $28bn. The upshot has been significant growth in sales of its cloud-based products, which were up by 33% year on year in the most recent quarter, or 55% after including the Cerner acquisition. They have grown much faster than the cloud divisions of Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Oracle also outwitted them to snatch the cloud contract to host the American operations of TikTok, a Chinese-owned short-video app to which millions of youngsters are glued. Investors like what they see. Oracle’s shares have gained in value by 73% over the past 12 months, well ahead of the tech-heavy Nasdaq index (see chart). The company’s market capitalisation is $315bn, making it the world’s fourth-most-valuable business-software maker, behind Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), and Amazon. Mr Ellison’s company is now looking to cash in on the latest craze in tech: generative AI of the sort that powers chatGPT and other content-creating bots. In March it became the first cloud provider to offer access to the DGX Cloud, a supercomputer designed by Nvidia, an American chipmaker, specially for training AI models. During the latest earnings call Mr Ellison announced that Oracle will also be launching a new service with Cohere, an AI startup in which it recently took a stake, to help clients use their own data to build specialised generative-AI models. Meanwhile, the firm is embedding generative-AI features into its various business applications.There is one potential snag. Over the past five years Oracle has returned $100bn in cash to shareholders through share buy-backs, reducing its share count by around a third. Mr Ellison, who has held onto his shares, has been among the biggest beneficiaries—his slice of the company jumped from 28% to 42% in the period. To fund those repurchases, and its cloud investments, the company has taken on hefty debts. Its net debt is now more than four times its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (a figure above three is considered risky). Indeed, the firm’s debts now exceed the book value of its assets, leaving it with negative shareholder equity on its balance-sheet, a telltale sign of dangerously high leverage.For now, the company has time on its hands. Fixed interest on its debts mean it has suffered little from rising benchmark rates. Its corporate bonds are priced by the market at a yield of 5.7%, but require coupon payments of only 3.8%. And only one-fifth of its debt will mature in the next three years. In recent quarters it has slowed share repurchases and started to chip away at its debt mountain.The hope will be that the heavy investments made in the past two years will allow the company to grow out of its debt. If it pays off, Mr Ellison may durably displace Mr Bezos on the world’s rich list. Either way, Oracle will not be going extinct any time soon. ■ More

AT 78 LARRY ELLISON, co-founder and chairman of Oracle, is still brimming with energy. During the business-software firm’s latest quarterly earnings call on June 12th the septuagenarian rhapsodised about artificial intelligence (AI) and the latest cloud-computing technology. He has good reason to be in high spirits. Over the past year Mr Ellison’s wealth has rocketed to more than $150bn, according to Forbes, a magazine that tracks such things, on the back of Oracle’s soaring share price. Mr Ellison has now edged past Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, as the world’s third-richest man.Listen to this story. Enjoy more audio and podcasts on More