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As we kick off 2023, Wall Street appears to be shifting its focus from inflation to growth. Investors apparently believe the Federal Reserve has inflation under control after dramatically raising interest rates throughout last year. Now, those higher rates are fueling fears of a recession in the U.S. But the deepening U.S. economic slowdown comes just as China has moved to abandon its zero-Covid policy and reopen its economy after 3 years. While the U.S. has been forced to rein in its economy due to multi-decade-high inflation, China – the world’s second-largest economy – has been weighed down by strict lockdowns since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. And with Beijing finally rolling back restrictions, the Chinese economy has nowhere to go but up, even as a surge in Covid cases is expected to temporarily hold up the reopening. As a result, Club stocks with exposure to China are seeing a boost, with the potential for their share prices, along with overall company growth, to accelerate in the coming months. We’ve long predicted the China reopening to be a when, not if, scenario and have been gradually building up our China-focused positions in recent months – key among them Estee Lauder (EL), Starbucks (SBUX) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) — on the premise that trying to time an exact pivot on the China reopening is a fool’s errand. At the Club, we’re believers in taking on new exposure slowly over time, in order to improve our cost basis and get ahead of market sentiment improving. Patience is paramount. And our investment thesis is starting to pay off, with Wall Street expressing bullish optimism on our 3 key China-exposed holdings. Wells Fargo on Monday upgraded Wynn to overweight, or buy, from equal weight, while raising its price target to $101 a share, from $74. Analysts at Wells Fargo cited the reopening of China’s Macao casino hub – where Wynn operates two properties – calling it “the best growth opportunity in Gaming.” On Tuesday, analysts at Piper Sandler reiterated their overweight rating on Estee Lauder, while raising the bank’s price target to $290 a share, from $255.The analysts believe that shares should be bolstered by the cosmetics giant’s $2.8 billion deal to acquire Tom Ford , along with China’s reopening. Lastly, analysts at Bank of America reiterated their buy rating on shares of Starbucks on Tuesday, while raising their price target to $125 a share, from $109, saying the coffeemaker “appears poised to benefit from China’s long-awaited economic reopening.” Still, the analysts cautioned, “the timing of this tailwind is still uncertain as the economy struggles with the fallout of policies [like] weak economic growth [and] widespread COVID outbreaks.” Bottom line: If you wait for the economy to rebound and the current Covid surge to die down, you will have almost certainly missed the chance to pivot to China. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long EL, WYNN, SBUX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

People use their smartphones to take photographs outside The Wynn Macau casino resort, operated by Wynn Resorts Ltd., in Macao, China, on Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2018.
Billy H.C. Kwok | Bloomberg | Getty Images

As we kick off 2023, Wall Street appears to be shifting its focus from inflation to growth.  
Investors apparently believe the Federal Reserve has inflation under control after dramatically raising interest rates throughout last year. Now, those higher rates are fueling fears of a recession in the U.S. More

State of Freight

CNBC’s supply chain survey shows logistics managers are concerned about major issues at West Coast ports.
Nearly a third of logistics managers at major companies and trade groups say they do not know how much trade they would return to the West Coast after a key labor deal is reached.
Of those surveyed, 49% said they did not divert trade, compared to 40% who said they did.

Shipping containers are offloaded from a container ship in the Port of Los Angeles before U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks aboard the Battleship USS Iowa Museum on June 10, 2022 in Los Angeles, California.
Mario Tama | Getty Images

Nearly a third of logistics managers at major companies and trade groups say they do not know how much trade they would return to the West Coast once an International Longshore and Warehouse Union, or ILWU, labor deal is reached, according to CNBC’s supply chain survey.
Eighteen percent of respondents said they would bring back 10% of their diverted trade, another 12% surveyed said they would bring back 20% of the trade they moved away, and another 12% were more bullish, saying they would bring back 60% of their diverted trade.

Arrows pointing outwards

The survey questioned 341 logistic managers the week of Dec. 12-19 at companies that are members of the National Retail Federation, the American Apparel and Footwear Association, the Council Of Supply Chain Management Professionals, the Pacific Coast Council, the Agriculture Transportation Coalition and the Coalition Of New England Companies For Trade.
Of those surveyed, 49% said they did not divert trade, compared to 40% who said they did.

Arrows pointing outwards

Over half of those respondents told CNBC the main reason for moving trade away from the West Coast was the threat of an ILWU strike. About 40% cited both California’s AB5 “gig worker” law, which concerns the employment status of drivers, and rail delays. Respondents could list multiple reasons for the trade diversion.

Arrows pointing outwards

 Negotiations between the ILWU and their employer, the Pacific Maritime Association, have been ongoing since May 10. One of the biggest winners in the diversion of trade is the Port of New York and New Jersey which has taken the top spot in the nation, knocking the Port of Los Angeles to either second or third depending on the month.

The unresolved fears have migrated trade away from the West Coast to East Coast and Gulf ports. That has benefited East Coast warehouses as well as the two large railroads that service the ports seeing the boom in containers, CSX and Norfolk Southern. According to ITS Logistics, which monitors rail cargo trends, the volume of freight moving out of the East Coast doubles that of the West Coast.

Of those surveyed, more than half of logistics managers surveyed by CNBC do not expect the supply chain to return to normal until 2024 or after.
From January to November, 4.6 million loaded import twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, with a total value of about $282 billion moved through the Port of Los Angeles. This is in comparison to the Port of New York and New Jersey, which processed 4.5 million TEUs during the same timeframe with a value of about $274.6 billion. The value of a container entering the ports is approximately $61,000, based on customs data.
The Port of New York and New Jersey took the number one slot starting in September in processing containers. More

With $785 million at stake, this is the fourth-largest jackpot in Mega Millions history.
Nearly all winners opt for the immediate lump sum, which is “a big mistake,” one expert said.
There are some significant advantages to spreading out the windfall.

This could be a very good year for one lucky winner of the fourth-largest jackpot in Mega Millions history.
And yet, kicking off 2023 with $785 million could have a downside.

“The curse of the lottery losers is very real,” said Andrew Stoltmann, a Chicago-based lawyer who has represented several recent lottery winners.
One of the very first decisions a winner must make — whether to accept the jackpot as a lump sum or as an annuity — often ends up being their downfall, Stoltmann said.
More from Personal Finance:4 key things to do if you actually win5 tax and investment changes could boost your 2023 financesTips to help you build more emergency savings in the new year
The jackpot for Tuesday night’s drawing is now the fourth-largest lottery prize ever at an estimated $785 million, if you opt to take your windfall as an annuity spread over three decades. The upfront cash option — which most jackpot winners choose — for this drawing is $403.8 million, as of midday Tuesday.
These days, the annuity option is bigger than it previously was, relative to the cash option, thanks to higher interest rates, which make it possible for the game to fund larger annuitized prizes, according to the Multi-State Lottery Association.

Still, “over 90% of winners take the immediate lump sum,” Stoltmann said. “That’s typically a big mistake.”

Not only does an annuity offer a bigger bang for your buck, but spreading out the payments also gives you a chance to build an experienced team, including an accountant, financial advisor and an attorney to protect the money and your best interests, according to Stoltmann.
“Few lottery winners have the infrastructure in place to manage a lottery windfall,” he said.
That ensures a level of financial security that the lump sum does not, even with the inevitable onslaught of solicitations, excessive purchases or bad investments.
“To make a mistake with the first year’s winnings is not catastrophic if the winner is going to receive another 29 years’ worth of payments,” Stoltmann said.

A breakdown of annuity payments vs. lump-sum payouts

Spreading out the payments is a worthwhile consideration, “especially in light of the math and psychology,” said Joe Buhrmann, a certified financial planner and senior financial planning consultant at Fidelity’s eMoney Advisor.
“Even if you spend it all, there’s another check that comes next year,” he said. “There’s a great deal of certainty in that.”
Then there are the tax consequences: Choose the cash option and a 24% federal tax withholding gets taken off the top — that’s roughly $96.9 million — with another hefty bill likely due at tax time. 
“The only deduction you have is the cost of your ticket,” Buhrmann said.

Of course, you’ll pay tax on the annuity checks, as well, but perhaps not as much on the investment income if the government is doing the work for you (essentially by putting the winnings in a portfolio of bonds rather than how you would have invested it).
Although you could likely make more by investing in the market over the same time horizon, there is far less risk since the annuity payments are guaranteed. Even if you die, future payments become part of your estate, just like any other asset.
“Don’t get caught up in the nickels and dimes,” said Susan Bradley, a CFP and founder of the Sudden Money Institute in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Either way, “the payouts are huge and you will never be the same,” she said.

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We’re buying 10 shares of Humana (HUM) at roughly $492 apiece. Following Tuesday’s trade, Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust will own 110 shares of HUM, increasing its weighting in the portfolio to 1.96% from 1.78%. We are putting some of our approximately 10% cash position to work Tuesday afternoon, looking for buying opportunities in stocks of profitable companies with dependable earnings power that trade at reasonable valuations. Humana is our choice. Even with a nearly 4% decline Tuesday, shares were up more than 5% in the past 12 months. This criterion brought us to managed care, a reliable group that is getting hit hard in Tuesday’s selloff. Wall Street turned on the industry in the morning. Cigna (CI) was downgraded to equal weight, equivalent to a hold rating, at Wells Fargo. CVS Health (CVS) was downgraded to in-line, or hold, by Evercore ISI. The analysts’ action is bringing down shares of all the operators Tuesday. However, the pullback in Humana represents an opportunity, and we’re buying back half of the shares we trimmed slightly above $500 in early October . Here’s why. Part of the thesis for the CVS downgraded was increased competition in the Medicare Advantage (MA) space. A lot of that is coming from the revamped offering by Humana, which Evercore sees as a market share gainer. Humana gaining share in MA has been part of our bullish thesis for months, so we view Evercore’s call as confirmation. It’s also consistent with what Humana disclosed in December when it announced that “based on annual enrollment period activity to date,” it was increasing guidance for MA growth from 325,000 to 400,000 members to “at least 500,000″ members. This was big news because the revised guidance represents net membership growth of at least 10.9%, which puts the company back on track toward growth above the industry rate. In the Wells Fargo note, the analyst believes Cigna has limited opportunities for price-to-earnings multiple expansion this year after a strong 2022. But it was noted that Humana is a name to favor in the group. According to Factset, Cigna is expected to grow earnings by about 7% year over year in 2023, compared to Humana’s estimate of 11.7%. Humana trades at a higher multiple of about 17.5x those 2023 estimates. But it’s worthy of that premium due to its consistent double-digit earnings growth rate that is insensitive to shifts in the economy and interest rates. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long HUM. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, on Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images More

Higher mortgage rates and consumer worries are hitting home prices.
Prices are now 2.5% below the spring 2022 peak and are expected to continue to move lower this year.
Mortgage rates are back on the rise again after a brief reprieve in November and early December.

A sign is posted in front of a home that is for sale on December 19, 2022 in Los Angeles, California.
Mario Tama | Getty Images

Home prices are falling into a deep winter chill, as higher mortgage rates push more buyers to the sidelines.
Prices in November were still 8.6% higher than during the same month in 2021, but it was the first year-over-year reading in single digits in 21 months, according to CoreLogic. It is also the lowest rate of appreciation since November 2020.

Prices are now 2.5% below the spring 2022 peak and are expected to continue to move lower this year. CoreLogic’s forecast has price movement falling into negative territory by spring before rebounding to about 2% to 3% growth in the fall.
“Although home price growth has been slowing rapidly and will continue to do so in 2023, strong gains in the first half of last year suggest that total 2022 appreciation was only slightly lower than that recorded in 2021,” said Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “However, 2023 will present its own challenges, as consumers remain wary of both the housing market and the overall economic outlook.”
Mortgage rates are back on the rise again after a brief reprieve in November and early December. Rates had more than doubled over the summer, with the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan exceeding 7%. It hit a high of 7.37% at the end of October, according to Mortgage News Daily. In November and December it fell back, hitting a low of 6.13% in mid-December, but is now back up over 6.5%.
“Potential homebuyers are grappling with the idea of buying amid possible further price declines and a continued inventory shortage. Nevertheless, with slowly improving affordability and a more optimistic economic outlook than previously believed, the housing market could show resilience in 2023,” added Hepp.
Florida, South Carolina and Georgia saw the highest home price gains in the nation, as buyers continue to flock to the Sun Belt. Washington, D.C., ranked last, with prices up just 1.2% year over year.

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The Ford F-Series continued its decadeslong U.S. sales dominance in 2022 despite ongoing parts and supply chain problems, the company said.
The 2022 sales make for an average of at least one F-Series Truck sold every 49 seconds last year.
Still, F-Series sales are expected to come in lower than in recent years.

2023 Ford F-150 Raptor R

DETROIT – The Ford F-Series continued its decadeslong U.S. sales dominance in 2022 despite ongoing parts and supply chain problems, the company said Tuesday.
Ford Motor reported sales of its F-Series, which includes the F-150 pickup and its larger siblings, surpassed 640,000 trucks last year – making it America’s bestselling truck for 46 consecutive years and bestselling vehicle for 41 years.

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The 2022 sales make for an average of at least one F-Series Truck sold every 49 seconds last year, Ford said.
Despite topping the sales charts, F-Series sales are expected to come in lower than in recent years. Sales of the truck were off nearly 13% through November compared with a year earlier, however Ford said last month’s sales are anticipated to be the best of 2022 for the F-Series.
Ford sold 726,004 F-Series trucks in 2021, which was a 7.8% decline from more than 787,400 vehicles in 2020. Before the coronavirus pandemic, the company had been selling about 900,000 of the trucks annually.
Ford has attempted to prioritize production of the F-Series, including its new electric F-150 Lightning, throughout rolling shutdowns of plants due to the parts shortage in recent years. The company has even been partially building vehicles to complete them at a later date to keep production going.
There are fears on Wall Street that the most profitable days for automakers such as Ford may be behind them amid higher interest rates, falling used vehicle prices and a normalization of sales mix away from fully loaded models.

Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan highlighted such challenges — and a renewed emphasis on Ford’s monthly sales reports — in a note to investors on Tuesday citing negative catalysts for the automaker.
Ford is set to report its total year-end sales on Thursday, a day after other major automakers are expected to release results.
While the F-Series nameplate has led the sales charts for decades, Ford has not been the bestselling automaker of full-size pickup trucks in recent years. That title has gone to General Motors, which sells two full-size pickups.
GM sells the higher-priced GMC Sierra alongside the Chevy Silverado. Combined sales of both pickups outnumbered Ford and other rivals through the third quarter.
GM spokesman Jim Cain downplayed the F-Series rankings, saying the company is well positioned to capture full-size truck sales leadership for a third consecutive year.
“We count trucks the old-fashioned way, one at a time, and by that measure we’re the clear leader and have been for a while,” he said.

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Warner Bros. Discovery signed a deal with VideoAmp, a significant moment for the startup audience measurement platform as an alternative option to legacy firm Nielsen. 
The deal comes ahead of the 2023 upfronts, when networks look to secure long-term commitments from advertisers.
Warner Bros. Discovery will also still use Nielsen, whose accreditation from the Media Rating Council was paused in 2021 after concerns regarding its system arose during Covid.

In this photo illustration, the Warner Bros. Discovery logo is displayed on a smartphone screen and in the background, the HBO Max and Discovery Plus logos.
Rafael Henrique | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Warner Bros. Discovery has signed a deal with VideoAmp to measure its audience as an alternative means of data for advertisers, the companies announced Tuesday. 
The contract is a significant moment for VideoAmp, a startup advertising measurement platform that has recently been growing its list of clients ahead of this year’s upfronts in spring, when TV networks look to secure long-term commitments from advertisers. Warner Bros. Discovery owns traditional TV networks and streaming services.

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The deal also gives Warner Bros. Discovery another data set to provide to advertisers at a time when the industry is considering alternatives to legacy measurement firm Nielsen, which was put under the microscope during the Covid pandemic when questions arose regarding its measurement panels. Warner will be using both Nielsen and VideoAmp.
Firms like Nielsen and VideoAmp offer audience estimates and data that TV networks and streamers use to sell slots for commercials. Nielsen’s measurement system is based on a panel of approximately 40,000 households that allow it to track what they watch. VideoAmp bases its data on log-in information from devices. Other competitors in the space include Comscore, as well as startups like iSpot.tv and Samba TV. 
VideoAmp wouldn’t provide the length of its contract with Warner, but founder and CEO Ross McCray told CNBC its deals with the media giant and others are for the long term. VideoAmp also works with Disney, which recently launched the ad-supported platform for Disney+, as well as TelevisaUnivision. 
“Especially with Warner’s investment in streaming and having a portfolio of so many channels, WBD has so much opportunity,” said McCray. “We are going to properly allow you to package it as a cross platform” to advertisers. 
The merger between Discovery and Warner Media closed in 2022, amassing a portfolio of TV networks including the Discovery Channel, TLC, TNT, TBS and others. The merged company plans to roll out a revamped streaming platform in the spring, combining its Discovery+ with Warner’s HBO Max. 

The company has also been in the midst of cost-cutting as it contends with a hefty debt load stemming from the merger. While WBD will still be using Nielsen’s measurement services, the deal with VideoAmp gives it another data set, and the possibility of a more cost-efficient, stand-alone alternative for the future.
“Traditional media measurement has not kept pace with how consumers are engaging with streaming and linear content. As a result, these audiences have been undercounted and current measures no longer accurately reflect their true advertising value,” said Andrea Zapata, Warner’s head of ad sales research, measurement and insights, in a news release. 
Nielsen’s lock on TV viewership and ratings has spanned decades. However, Nielsen’s metrics came under scrutiny as concerns mounted earlier in the pandemic regarding inaccuracies and irregularities in its measurement, according to media reports.
Nielsen disclosed undercounting issues in 2020, and has since lost its accreditation with the Media Rating Council, the industry body that verifies the measurement process. Nielsen’s status with the MRC remains suspended, according to recent reports. VideoAmp, which was founded in 2014, doesn’t have accreditation from the MRC, either.
Despite these issues, Nielsen remains the measurement giant in the room working with all major media companies. Streamers work with Nielsen, too. Amazon’s Prime TV uses Nielsen for its “Thursday Night Football” ratings. When Netflix launched its ad-supported tier last year, it said its programming would be rated by Nielsen, beginning some time in 2023. 
This is a pivotal moment for the media industry, as cord cutting accelerated recently and media companies look to make streaming profitable. Streaming services have added cost-efficient, ad-supported options as subscriber growth slowed down in 2022. 
While there’s about $60 billion to $70 billion spent annually on U.S. linear TV advertising, according to Insider Intelligence, streaming ad revenue is steadily growing. Ad revenue for streaming services is expected to exceed $21 billion in 2023, up from nearly $17 billion in 2022, according to Insider Intelligence.
“We’re expecting meaningful change because the demand is there,” VideoAmp’s McCray said of the measurement industry. 

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January means high stakes for retailers as they close out the holiday quarter.
Companies are under pressure to clear through excess inventory.
Some economists and industry watchers anticipate a recession for the U.S.

A shopper goes through shirts in the kids section at Old Navy in Denver, Colorado.
Brent Lewis | Denver Post | Getty Images

January is typically an overlooked month for retailers.
Shoppers make returns and exchanges. They come to stores with gift cards in hand. And they may spring for workout clothes or other items to follow through on New Year’s resolutions.

But this year, January carries higher stakes. The next few weeks, which close out many retailers’ fiscal year, could help determine whether the holiday quarter is a win or a bust. It’s an important time for helping stores clear out excess inventory, too. January could also set the tone for 2023 — when some economists and retail industry watchers anticipate the U.S. will tip into a recession.
So far, early holiday results have been better than some economists and retailers feared. Sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 rose 7.6%, according to data from MasterCard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment. The figure includes restaurants and is not adjusted for inflation, which rose 7.1% year over year in November.

Yet there are signs that shoppers may be running out of gas. Credit card balances have ticked up. Personal saving rates have fallen. And sales of big-ticket items like jewelry and electronics have weakened.
Plus, Americans’ spending spree during the earlier years of the pandemic, fueled by stimulus money, boredom and socked-away savings, have made for tough comparisons.

A pivotal January

Retailers enter 2023 reckoning with the fact that store traffic already lagged during peak weeks of the holiday season.

Across six retailers — Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Nordstrom, Kohl’s and Macy’s — foot traffic dropped by an average of 3.22% year over year for the weeks from Black Friday through the week of Christmas, according to data from Placer.ai, an analytics firm that uses anonymized data from mobile devices to estimate overall visits to locations. It also declined by nearly 5% when compared to pre-pandemic patterns.
Now retailers are more on edge.
“It seems like a lot of the brands are anticipating a bigger thud in January,” said Stacey Widlitz, president of SW Retail Advisors, a consulting firm.
She has noticed more retailers are dangling gift cards to drum up sales. For instance, Urban Outfitters-owned retail chain Anthropologie on Friday offered $50 toward a future purchase for online shoppers who spend $200 or more. But that bonus cash must be used by Jan. 31, when the company’s quarter ends.
Widlitz said those offers are focused on nudging shoppers to make purchases during a time when there’s often a post-holiday lull. It is also retailers’ last chance to sell through excess inventory and start the new fiscal year in a cleaner position.
“It just looks like they’re trying to push people to get into stores after the new year,” she said.
But for some, a more budget-sensitive consumer could be an opportunity.
On an earnings call last month, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said he anticipates a boost in sales as consumers feel stretched from holiday spending. Like many other retailers, Walmart’s holiday quarter includes January.
“Sometimes these quarters work out where the very end of December and January end up being stronger when people are particularly price sensitive,” he said. “So that’s kind of what I’m expecting.”
Already, the discounter has attracted wealthier shoppers with its lower-priced groceries and household staples. For the past two quarters, about 75% of its market share gains in food came from households that make more than $100,000 a year.
Yet like competitors Target and Costco, it has had a harder time selling discretionary merchandise that tends to drive higher profits than selling milk or paper towels.

What will the new year bring?

Economists are closely watching consumer indicators as the year begins.
On the positive side, said Michael Zdinak, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, unemployment is low and the jobs market is still very tight. There are signs that inflation has cooled, with prices rising less than expected in November, the most recent month of available federal data.
On the other hand, he said food prices are still high, retail demand is weakening and savings aren’t looking as robust.
Personal saving rates have declined significantly. The percentage of disposable income that people save was 2.4% in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s down from an average of 6.3% pre-pandemic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, which crunched the numbers from 1991 to 2019.
Zdinak said that low rate is unsustainable, especially as consumers have been spending money they put in their savings accounts during the earlier months and years of the pandemic.
Economists at the market data firm anticipate a recession to begin in the first quarter of 2023 and to last two quarters.
Zdinak said the downturn will be fueled by slashed orders and less manufacturing as many retailers clear through unwanted inventory after consumer preferences changed abruptly in 2022.
Then there are headwinds for consumers. Reality may soon hit families who have blown the budget on gifts or holiday travel, said Widlitz of SW Retail Advisors.
“Everyone gets through the holidays in denial and Feb. 1, when you get your [credit card] statement, or Jan. 15, whenever it comes, it’s like, ‘Oh!'” she said.
— Caitlyn Freda contributed to this report.

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