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EVOLVE GLOBAL SUMMIT 2022
Evolve Events

Long a sleepy category within the broader industry of beer, non-alcoholic beer has seen its growth skyrocket in recent years as bigger beer giants like AB InBev and Heineken launch new products as well as the emergence of independent brewers like Athletic Brewing as consumers look for healthy drinking alternatives.
Athletic Brewing CEO Bill Shufelt said “This is the moment we’ve been waiting for in the category,” which is projected to grow to upwards of $40 billion by 2032.
Shufelt and Athletic Brewing recently received a $50 million investment from Keurig Dr. Pepper, which will help the Connecticut-based company stay ahead of a growing pack of non-alcohol beers from brands like Budweiser, Corona and Heinken.

The start of ‘Dry January,’ a month when many people avoid drinking alcohol, typically brings a heightened level of attention to non-alcoholic drinks. But the CEO of one of the leading non-alcoholic beer companies said that the demand for non-alcoholic brews is booming well beyond a single month.
“This is the moment we’ve been waiting for in the category,” Bill Shufelt, Athletic Brewing CEO, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box “on Wednesday.

Long a sleepy category within the broader industry of beer, non-alcoholic beer has seen its growth skyrocket in recent years as bigger beer giants like AB InBev and Heineken launch new products as well as the emergence of independent brewers like Athletic Brewing. AB Inbev, which owns brands like Budweiser, Corona, Michelob, and Modelo, had previously set a goal of making 20% of its beer volume non-alcoholic and low alcohol by 2025.
The lack of quality non-alcoholic beer options was the impetus for Shufelt, a former trader at Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management, to start the Connecticut-based company in 2017, which solely focuses on non-alcoholic brewing.
“[Non-alcoholic beer] has gone from something that was 0.3% of the beer category and a total afterthought and penalty box beverage to something that is really exciting, aspirational, and kind of reframing how modern adults think,” Shufelt said.
Shufelt said that non-alcoholic beers now make up more than 2% of all beer sold at U.S. grocery stores, and at some national chain retailers, it is upwards of 8% of their beer category.

Cans of beer are packed at Athletic Brewing’s non-alcoholic brewery and production plant on March 20, 2019 in Stratford, Connecticut. 
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Growth of the non-alcoholic beer category

With more consumers choosing non-alcoholic beers in a move towards healthier drinking alternatives and safer drinking habits, the global non-alcoholic beer market has grown to $22 billion in 2022, according to GMI Insights, which projects that could reach $40 billion by 2032. According to Nielsen, non-alcoholic beer grew 20% in the U.S. in retail dollars in the past year.

Still, non-alcoholic beer makes up a small percentage of the total global beer market, which is valued at more than $750 billion.
But the growth of the overarching category has helped Athletic Brewing, which Shufelt said has a 55% market share of craft non-alcoholic beer. Athletic Brewing had $37 million in revenue in 2021, a three-year revenue growth of 13,071%, according to Inc. Magazine.
In November, Keurig Dr. Pepper made a $50 million investment into Athletic Brewing, receiving a minority equity stake akin to the brewer’s other lead investors such as TRB Advisors and Alliance Consumer Growth. To date, Athletic Brewing has raised more than $175 million.
This latest investment is allowing Athletic Brewing to invest in its facilities in Connecticut and San Diego, helping the brewing company “be a totally differentiated producer of non-alcoholic beer,” Shufelt said.
“That’s an investment that no one else is making in the category, so Athletic is really pulling it forward,” Shufelt said. “We’re passing the biggest of the big brands in the overall category, and are on track this year to become the number one player overall.” More

The price-to-earnings multiples say recession. But the multiples said similar things in 2022. So how long can the multiples stay this low? We have all read dozens of articles about what 2023 will bring us. I think most are sincere. Their only drawback, as usual, is that they don’t touch on stocks themselves. They might say that the S & P 500 , currently trading at 18-times earnings, could trade down to 16-times earnings even if earnings stay relatively steady. Or, they could say that if the terminal rate is 5% on the Federal’s Reserve’s fed funds rate , we might get to 14-times earnings. But these analyses don’t tell you how they got to that S & P target. So, I want to attack the S & P target thesis by looking at a few stocks that signal the uselessness of the projections. Let’s start with two stocks: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Nucor (NUE). Pharmaceuticals giant J & J, one of my favorites in the Club portfolio, trades at 18-times forward earnings for 2023. And I think that reflects a recession is coming, given that its earnings should not be hurt by a slowdown. If we get a recession, then the stock will trade higher, not lower, as a recession would likely signal the end of the Fed’s interest rate hikes. Now let’s take Nucor, the world’s finest steel maker. It is projected to earn $28 a share this year and then drop to $12 a share next year, as a likely recession takes hold. I have a hard time with the 4-times earnings it currently trades at, but it’s obvious that the stock market is setting up for a serious recession that would cause Nucor to have its earnings more than halved. But where do those earnings come from? The largest earnings sector will be infrastructure which, rather than take a hit, should go higher given fresh federal government spending kicks in next year. That infrastructure spending includes everything from bridges and tunnels to buildings, which Nucor dominates. Then Nucor also has heavy oil-and-gas exposure through its pipeline and heavy-equipment businesses. At the same time, industrial Caterpillar (CAT) sells at 18-times earnings because of demand. That mocks Nucor’s 4-times. With those end-markets and with CAT’s dramatically higher multiple, something has to give. Something is wrong. I think it’s Nucor’s earnings estimates for 2023 — they are too low. My point being is that you have the most cyclical stocks trading as if they are falling apart, but the heavier equipment traditional cyclicals trading not just higher, but much higher. My conclusion is that JNJ is “right” in what it sells at, Caterpillar and the like are most likely slightly wrong— too high, but still in the mix —and Nucor and the like are just dead wrong. So why aren’t we buying Nucor? Because I think it can go lower. Meanwhile, the automobile sector looms large, and auto is considered to be something that will plunge next year as demand abates. I think the market is making a serious misjudgment on that thesis. People have held off buying because cars and trucks are unnaturally too high, due to supply constraints and higher interest rates. Ultimately, I think autos will stay strong in a recession. Therefore, the best compromise is Ford (F), which should, barring still one more supply shock from China, make the most sense. We added to our position in Ford on Thursday. Still, all things considered let me make one more point: If a Caterpillar or a Deere (DE) were to come down to lower levels, it would make a great deal of sense to buy. One more quandary: Aerospace. A recession should dry up airplane demand, but replacement is critical. Club holding Honeywell (HON), which makes cockpits and airplane engines, sells at 24-times earnings, while Raytheon Technologies (RTX) clocks in at 21-times earnings. The latter is most likely undervalued as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Are these justifiable? They are the highest multiples in the entire market, including Club holdings Apple (APPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL). It could all meet in the middle. I see some shrinking of the large caps. Semiconductors are a moving, albeit diminishing target, with the exception of outlier Nvdia (NVDA) at 44-times earnings, which is now a small Club position because of its vulnerability. All but the fastest-growing companies could trade at around 16-17-times earnings. That’s going to be our broad assumption for next year — a mix of soft goods with higher multiples and cyclicals with lower ones. The debatable stocks are in tech, which are poised to disappoint even if a so-called clearing event should ultimately come about. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Bundles of steel from Nucor Corp. sit for sale to at Thompson Building Materials in Lomita, California, U.S., on Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012.
Patrick Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The price-to-earnings multiples say recession. But the multiples said similar things in 2022. So how long can the multiples stay this low? More

ESG Impact Events

Putting workers first in how they are treated and paid, not climate change or political activism, is the most important ESG issue for companies, according to polling of the American public.
That means as layoffs increase throughout the economy, how companies let workers go will increasingly be tied to evolving ideas about corporate responsibility.
From Elon Musk’s Twitter layoffs to Meta, Amazon and many tech startups, there are ample examples of the right and wrong ways to reduce headcount in a slowing economy.

Andreypopov | Istock | Getty Images

Layoffs this year have been mostly limited to the hardest-hit sectors of the economy, especially tech. But depending on your industry, you might find yourself face-to-face with a layoff if the economy slows more drastically in 2023, and it’s not always clear what you should expect from a soon-to-be-former employer as they let you go.
Recent headlines have show how wide in range layoffs policy can be from corporations, from the slash-and-burn approach taken by Elon Musk at Twitter to the pains some leaders are going to in publicly disclosed letters about job cuts laying out the various benefits being extended to departing employees.

Layoffs are a reputational issue for companies at a time when the American public ranks how businesses treat their workers as the most important ESG issue, according to annual polling conducted by Just Capital. Living wages, training and career advancement opportunities, worker safety, and diversity all factor into human capital metrics, but that doesn’t mean companies get a free pass on how they reduce headcount. “Layoffs can be done in a just way,” said Martin Whittaker, founding CEO of Just Capital.
“My general philosophy on letting people go is you want to treat people well because it all goes back to your brand and in today’s market employer brand is very important,” said Paul Wolfe, former head of HR at Indeed who now runs his own corporate consulting firm. “People exiting are still out there talking about your brand,” he said.
But there’s a big problem: many workers don’t know how to evaluate a job separation agreement, in effect, they can’t tell a just layoff from an unjust one. Here are some recommendations from career experts for an employer-employee interaction no one wants to have, but it’s better to prepare for in advance.
Don’t sign anything when first notified
A very important piece of knowledge to start with: you don’t have to sign a job separation offer. In fact, career coach Fiona Bryan’s No. 1 piece of advice when given a layoff offer is to not sign any document on the spot when you’re first notified.
“It’s a really emotional time, and, legally, your employer has to give you a notice on how long you have to sign the paperwork,” said Bryan, a professional career coach at Ask A Career Expert and senior managing partner at The Bryan Group. “Take the offer away and read it. Ideally, take it to an employment lawyer, and some offer short, free consultations.”

“It varies on the company, but typically, you’ll have 21 days to sign a layoff offer,” said Toni Frana, a career services manager at FlexJobs, a membership-based job site for remote and hybrid roles.
“You can always negotiate on the package,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. And he says employees are more likely to be successful in this environment, which unlike a sudden, severe downturn such as the Covid crash, is a situation in which many companies over-hired into a slowing economy. “This is not a panic, this is not a knife is falling,” he said. Employees are never going to have as much leverage in a negotiation on the way out as when they accept a job offer, but “now is a better time than during a huge crisis,” he said.
After you’ve had time to process the emotional, financial, and mental changes that a layoff brings, here’s how to know whether your company’s layoff offer is a good one or not, and if it’s time to negotiate for a better one.
How you take severance pay matters
When it comes to severance pay, Bryan advises that people identify whether it will be paid in a lump sum or if the company will keep them on the payroll as they deposit the money into their accounts.
“If it’s paid out in a lump sum, sometimes it’s nice to get your layoff money and find a new job,” Bryan said. “But sometimes it benefits people to stay on the payroll, so they can continue to list continued employment on their resume with the company.”
If you’re still getting a check from the company, Bryan said you can still say you’re employed at the company on your resume. This is especially important if someone has only worked a short time at the company when they’re let go, and they can list active employment for a while longer.
How much money you should expect
Most companies that offer severance pay base it on tenure at a company. Frana said the general rule of thumb is that companies offer one week to three weeks of your pay for each year you worked at the company.
If you’ve worked at the company for one year, then you could get anywhere from one to three weeks of pay. But if you’ve been at the company for 10 years, you could get anywhere from 10 weeks to 30 weeks of pay.
“If you were valuable to the company, you might be able to get additional money, or ask for additional money,” Bryan said. “But two years of severance pay is usually the maximum. In my history of doing this, I don’t think I’ve heard anybody go past 24 months.”

Evaluate health benefits and severance together
On top of how much you get paid, how quickly your health benefits expire is another part of a company’s layoff offer.
“I’ve found [health benefits] go through the month that the person is still on the payroll,” Bryan said. “So that’s another difference if someone stays on the payroll, or if they’re paid in a lump sum.”
If you’re on the payroll for two months, or a year, for your severance payments, quite often your health benefits coverage will continue for that time as well, Bryan said. But if you take a lump sum, it’s difficult for a company to continue your healthcare coverage.
“It’s just the way insurance companies work. If a person isn’t an employee, a company can’t pay their insurance premium,” Bryan said. “Whereas if you’re still on the payroll and you’re being paid your regular salary, then a company can pay out your insurance premium as well.”
In the current tight labor market, some companies are offering more. In its recent layoffs, fintech company Stripe said it was offering the cash equivalent of six months of existing health-care premiums or health care continuation.
In the U.S., no matter how or if you’re offered severance pay, the Department of Labor requires companies to offer a temporary continuation of the health benefits that people were previously offered while working at the company. This is usually at the cost of the employee, and it’s required under COBRA, or the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act.
While every company is different, they’ll offer temporary coverage for roughly two months, Frana said. But these continued health benefits are not offered at the same rates you were offered as an employee and can get pricey for people who were just laid off.
Challenger said the “headline number” of total weeks of severance pay is the hardest to negotiate, but peripherals like health care, being kept on the payroll for longer, and PTO may have more room for employees to ask for better terms.

Career help to negotiate into a deal

While severance pay and health benefits are critical, there are additional resources that companies might offer in your layoff package, and some you can negotiate for, if not initially offered.
Helping employees know about the pieces of the package that don’t necessarily cost money or don’t set major precedents is important because that’s what HR is usually looking to not do, Bryan said.
Outplacement benefits, such as resume reviews, career coaching, and interview training, are major resources that companies might offer in their severance packages.
These are among the resources that people need the most when they’re laid off to help them bounce back into the job market, said Lisa Rangel, the founder and CEO of Chameleon Resumes, a resume writing and job landing consulting company.
“If the company isn’t offering them directly, you can negotiate for them yourself,” Rangel said. “Or if they’re offering a blanket, general outplacement benefit, you can also negotiate for what custom services will benefit you and see if they’ll do that.”
Other resources can include connection to the company’s alumni network and even access to internal resources, like lawyers to assist with legal needs. When online payments company Stripe laid off workers in November, they offered former employees access to an alumni email address, as well as career support and immigration support. The latter is extremely important to foreign visa workers whose residence in the U.S. is contingent on having a job.
While these services are not typically offered by every company, Bryan said an employee can and should always ask for what they need, and it helps if it’s not too high of a cost. If you’re not offered what you need or think you deserve based on your tenure and performance, she added that just like a job offer, everything is negotiable.
Wolfe said that a company’s job goes beyond the financial benefits being extended. As an HR leader, he said in a layoff situation, “My job is to help you as much as possible and help you get your next gig and companies, if they care about employees, want to help.”
“If you haven’t been in a layoff situation before, negotiating might not be something that you automatically think about,” Frana said. “You always can try to negotiate, whether or not there’s room for negotiation, you don’t know unless you try.”
While getting laid off is never ideal, and quite often not expected, Bryan said you should always advocate for what you need and deserve.
“Severance packages can be good, when you know they’re coming and you’ve made some plans,” Bryan said. “But reentering the job market requires resources, and it helps when you’re well-prepared, so another company can scoop you up.” More

View from the Gulf

And this culinary boost for the the UAE’s travel sector, leaders have announced plans to supercharge the tourism sector.
Michelin chiefs say that the UAE is now on par with the big global gourmet destinations such as Paris, New York, Singapore, and London.

Chefs and owners pose for picture on the stage during a ceremony revealing the 2022 selection of the Michelin Guide Dubai, the first-ever edition in the United Arab Emirates, on June 21, 2022.
Giuseppe Cacace | Afp | Getty Images

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — While the economic outlook for much of the world is predicted to be rocky over 2023, in the Gulf there’s a buoyant mood.
This is partly after the lucrative soccer frenzy in Qatar, but also because the region’s tourism sector has never had it so good.

This is especially true for the United Arab Emirates, with the country’s economy growing by more than 6% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
For the UAE hospitality sector there’s a lot on the table — literally, if the rising number of posh new fine dining restaurants is anything to go by. Licensed eateries in the country must be part of a hotel — with a few exceptions in the finance district of DIFC — so this is a vital business tie-in.
And as ever in this part of the world, the competition to be the most extravagant and lauded is already high — as illustrated by the competitive spirit on display in the UAE’s inaugural Michelin Guide Dubai awards a few months back.
The capital Abu Dhabi saw three of its restaurants recognized with one star — Talea by Antonio Guida, for its “Cucina di Famiglia” or family style Italian cuisine; Hakkasan, a restaurant celebrating traditional Cantonese flavors; and ultra-trendy Japanese restaurant 99 Sushi Bar — notable for creations such as whole king crab leg au gratin, with wasabi, tobiko and yuzu mayonnaise.
Down the road in Dubai — Abu Dhabi’s boisterous neighbor and unofficial rival — an impressive eleven restaurants were served Michelin stars, including upmarket Italian eatery Armani Ristorante located at the base of the city’s most famous landmark, the soaring Burj Khalifa.

Chef Giovanni Papi confirmed to CNBC that accolades this year from the likes of Michelin have been pulling in well-to-do foodies, both locals and tourists alike. “Since our latest recognitions and awards, we have seen an increase in gourmet guests,” he said.
The kitchen at Armani Ristorante is currently showcasing an ambitious truffle-themed degustation menu starting at 949 dirhams ($258) a head — or 1,559 dirhams with wine pairing. It includes intricate dishes such as Bottoni Ripieni, composed of button-shaped ravioli filled with braised lamb and artichoke, Castelmagno cheese fondue, and lamb ragout.
While there are officially no three-star Michelin restaurants yet in the UAE, November did see three Michelin-starred chef Pierre Gagnaire swing by his restaurant Pierre’s TT at the InterContinental Dubai. The French maestro is a regular visitor to Dubai and has been one of the more serious global chefs setting the gastronomic agenda in the emirate.
For a few nights only, well-heeled guests sampled creations such as pan-fried squid with black garlic, Paris mushrooms and rocket.
Gagnaire commented at the event: “The food scene here is fast developing … this visit put me in awe to see the remarkable achievements that the country has achieved in developing the food craft so exquisitely and there can be no more inspiring location than Dubai for a restaurant.”
Michelin chiefs agree, saying that the UAE is now on par with the big global gourmet destinations such as Paris, New York, Singapore, and London.
“The selection criteria for all Michelin Guide restaurants are the same as per our global standard review process, where anonymous inspectors review all cuisines and evaluate only the quality of the dishes,” Gwendal Poullennec, international director of the Michelin Guides, told CNBC.
“We would say the restaurants in the Michelin Guide selection in the UAE are equal to the big cities.”

Local cuisine?

However, for some local gastronomists there is a fly in the consommé — the fact that although this year’s Michelin selection encompassed cuisines from across the European and Asian continents, no UAE restaurant specializing in Middle Eastern cuisine was awarded a star.
Speaking to CNBC, Samantha Wood, founder of popular impartial restaurant review website FooDiva.net commented: “The UAE’s heavy reliance on imported produce, despite a growing choice of local ingredients is a detriment — which ties into the high price tag attached to restaurants here. However, what’s more disappointing, is that some restaurants that do maximize our local bounty are not recognized in the Michelin guide.”
Wood added: “Of the 11 one and two star restaurants in the Dubai guide, only two are independent, chef-led concepts — despite the huge pool of talent here. It’s these restaurants who Michelin should be recognizing at the highest level, rather than focusing on imported celeb chef concepts available anywhere in the world.”

Best value awards

There was recognition for Middle Eastern cooking among the Michelin Bib Gourmand awardees — a category for restaurants that offer a three-course gourmet experience priced at an average of 250 dirhams. Winners include home-style Levantine restaurant Bait Maryam, and Al Khayma, featuring rustic Emirati cooking.
Interestingly, restaurants with the Bib Gourmand distinction have carved out a successful niche for themselves. Far from being sub-Michelin venues, they’re being enjoyed as Instagrammable spaces for a special dining experience — perhaps without the austerity of the Michelin star tag.
A nice example is Fi’lia on the 70th floor of the glamourous new SLS Dubai hotel. This trendy eatery offers “fresh ingredients from the firewood oven and grill, handmade breads and pasta” with a distinctly upmarket twist. Think gnocci and caviar with rosemary butter, and 1kg salt crusted branzino.
The management at Fi’lia appear more than happy with their foodie ranking.
“Our objective was never to aim towards a Michelin star, and we are quite realistic about it,” Claudio Cardoso, culinary director at SLS Dubai Hotel, told CNBC.
“Having a Bib Gourmand on the other hand really reflects on what was always the aim of Fi’lia, affordable dishes with good quality ingredients. It’s all about good food that people can relate to … like our mothers used to make.”
And with this culinary boost for the UAE’s travel sector, leaders have announced plans to supercharge the tourism sector and increase its contribution to the national GDP from the current 177 billion UAE dirhams to a whopping 450 billion dirhams by 2031.
According to Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri, minister of the economy, the strategy plans to attract investments worth 100 billion dirhams and bring 40 million hotel guests to the region. More

It’s unlikely that a dangerous new Covid-19 variant is spreading in China, said Dr. Chris Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
There were likely billions of omicron infections worldwide this year, but no new Covid variant has emerged, he said.
“That’s why I would put the risk as quite low that there is a dangerous new variant in China,” Murray said.

Pictured here on Dec. 28, 2022, is gymnasium-turned-fever clinic in Fuzhou, Fujian province.
Wang Dongming | China News Service | Getty Images

BEIJING — It’s unlikely that a dangerous new Covid-19 variant is spreading in China, said Dr. Chris Murray, Seattle-based director of a health research center at the University of Washington.
His comments Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” come as U.S. health officials warned this week about the chance of a new Covid variant emerging in China’s nationwide outbreak — and how Beijing’s lack of transparency could delay detection of public health risks.

Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, pointed out there were likely billions of omicron infections worldwide this year, but no new Covid variant has emerged, only subvariants of omicron.
“That’s why I would put the risk as quite low that there is a dangerous new variant in China,” he said. He noted that “some very special characteristics” would be needed for a new variant to emerge and replace omicron.
The variant was first detected in South Africa more than a year ago. Omicron is far more transmissible, but causes less severe disease, than when Covid first emerged in Wuhan, China, in late 2019.

Unlike much of the world, China’s Covid wave this month is affecting a population of 1.4 billion people who are mostly getting infected for the first time. Only domestically made vaccines are widely available to locals.
Beijing this month suddenly relaxed many Covid-related restrictions on movement. On Monday, authorities also said they would scrap inbound quarantine starting Jan. 8, while resuming passport processing for Chinese citizens wanting to travel abroad for tourism.

The U.S., Japan and a few other countries this week subsequently announced new Covid testing requirements for travelers from China.

Need for hospitalization, death data

Murray said an outright travel ban, if proposed, “would not make sense,” and that he “would not put in testing requirements.”
“The argument that’s being made is, we need more transparency about what’s happening in China,” Murray said.
“The earliest sign of some new variant is actually going to be a change in the hospitalization or the death rate associated with Covid, and not just lots of infections, because we know omicron does that,” he said.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

China’s National Health Commission said Sunday it would stop releasing daily information on Covid infections and deaths. However, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has maintained daily reports — which, along with hospital discharges, only show thousands of new Covid infections a day and a handful of deaths. Covid testing is no longer mandatory in China.
Releases on China’s disease control center website show its director Shen Hongbing held online meetings this month with his U.S. counterpart and the head of the U.K. Health Security Agency.

Covid risks

As for the theory that viruses adapt to keep their hosts alive, Murray warned that it “applies over quite a long timespan, not months or years.”
Genomic research shows it’s still possible for a mutation to emerge that causes more severe disease, Murray said. “I think it would be unwise for us just to assume that all the variants are going to be like omicron.”
A study published in Nature Medicine in November also found that getting infected by Covid-19 more than once increases the risk of organ failure and death.

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U.S. health officials and the WHO have called on China to share more information on the spread of Covid in the country.
The U.S. in particular is worried that a new Covid variant could emerge in China as the virus spreads widely and rapidly.
The CDC on Wednesday announced new testing requirements for airline passengers whose trips originate in China.

U.S. and global health leaders say Beijing is not sharing enough information about the spread of Covid-19 in China, leaving the international community in the dark about the scale and severity of the current wave of infection in the world’s most populous country.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a statement Wednesday, said the lack of transparency from China could delay the identification of new Covid variants that pose a threat to public health. China is sharing very few genomic sequences used to identify such variants, according to the CDC.

The CDC on Wednesday announced new testing requirements for airline passengers whose trips originate in China. All passengers, regardless of nationality or vaccination status, must get tested for Covid no more than two days before their flight to the U.S. and present a negative result to the airline before departure. The requirements go into effect on Jan. 5.
India, Italy, Japan and Taiwan have also imposed Covid test requirements on airline passengers originating in China. The Chinese government is battling a surge of infections after easing its stringent zero-Covid policy in the wake of social unrest earlier this year.

People receive inhaled COVID-19 vaccine at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Bijie, Guizhou province, China, December 29, 2022.
CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images

A U.S. federal health official, in a call with reporters on Wednesday, said the Biden administration has very limited information on the number of new Covid cases, hospitalizations and particularly deaths in China. Testing and casing reporting has also decreased in the country, which makes the true infection rate difficult to determine, the official said.
China’s zero-Covid policy, which sought to crush outbreaks through severe measures, means a large portion of the population does not have any immunity to the highly transmissible omicron variants, the official said. As a consequence, the Biden administration is forecasting that a large number of people will be infected relatively quickly in China.
“What we’re concerned about is a new variant that may emerge actually in China,” said the official, who declined to be named as a condition of the press call. “With so many people in China being affected in a short period of time there is a chance, a probability that a new variant may emerge.”

The latest genomic sequencing data shared by health authorities in China indicates that Covid variants circulating in the country are similar to those known in the rest of the world, according to a statement this week from GISAID, a public database based in Germany.
In the past 180 days, China has sequenced and shared 412 Covid cases with GISAID, compared to more than 576,000 shared by the United States. Health authorities in China have shared fewer than 1% of reported and sequenced Covid cases, while the U.S. has shared more than 4% and the U.K. nearly 12%.
The World Health Organization has also called on China to share more information about what’s transpiring on the ground as the virus spread.
“WHO is very concerned over the evolving situation in China with increasing reports of severe disease,” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the global health agency, during a press briefing in Geneva last week.

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“In order to make a comprehensive risk assessment of the situation on the ground, WHO needs more detailed information on disease severity, hospital admissions, and requirements for ICU support,” Tedros said.
The WHO largely has anecdotal reports of emergency rooms and in some cases intensive care units filling up in China, according to Dr. Mike Ryan, head of the global health agency’s emergencies program.
“We don’t have complete knowledge of the impact,” Ryan said of the Covid wave in China during the press conference in Geneva last week.
Dr. Maria van Kerkhove, the WHO’s Covid technical lead, said last week that omicron subvariants BA.5, BQ.1, BF.7 and BA.2.75 are all circulating in China. XBB has also been detected in China, which is one of the most immune evasive variants yet.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, in a report published Dec. 15, said a massive wave of infection in China is inevitable as Beijing relaxes its zero-Covid policy. There will be huge numbers of severe disease in the elderly population and the death toll will be considerable, according to the report.
China faces a difficult situation because its domestically developed vaccines are not as effective as Pfizer’s and Moderna’s mRNA shots. Vaccine coverage among the elderly population in China also lags behind other countries.
“One in seven people on the planet live in China and the acceleration of vaccination, the protection of the health system during this period, is in the interest of seven out of seven people on this planet, Ryan said.
The U.S. has offered China mRNA Covid vaccines and other support but Beijing has declined the offer, the federal health official said on Wednesday’s call.

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Southwest Airlines’ holiday meltdown will “certainly” hit its fourth-quarter results, an executive said Thursday.
Southwest canceled thousands of flights over the past week while other airlines stabilized after brutal winter storms.
The airline said it expects a normal operation on Friday.

Southwest Airlines’ holiday meltdown will “certainly” hit its fourth-quarter results, executives said Thursday, adding that it will take several weeks to work through affected travelers’ reimbursement requests.
The systemwide chaos stranded hundreds of thousands of customers over the holiday week and drew scrutiny from Washington.

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The low-cost airline slashed schedules over the last several days, flying just about one-third of its planned flights, in a desperate effort to stabilize its operation and get planes and crews where they need to go.
Southwest said it expects to operate a normal schedule on Friday. It’s canceled 39 flights scheduled for Friday, according to FlightAware, down from more than 2,300 on Thursday.
“We have all hands on deck and tested solutions in place to support the restored operation. I’m confident, but I’m also cautious,” CEO Bob Jordan said in a staff memo Thursday.

Travelers at Baltimore Washington International airport deal with the impact of Southwest Airlines canceling more than 12,000 flights around the Christmas holiday weekend across the country and in Baltimore, Maryland, December 27, 2022.
Michael McCoy | Reuters

The airline also resumed selling tickets for Friday, after a pause it implemented before it stabilized its schedule, said Jordan, a more than three-decade Southwest veteran who became CEO in February.
Southwest’s operation unraveled over the holiday week after brutal winter weather swept across the U.S. When most airlines had recovered at the end of last week, Southwest’s problems worsened. Executives cited challenges including overloaded internal scheduling platforms crucial to getting crews matched with flights.

Executives on Thursday vowed to improve crew scheduling platforms and said that modernization efforts were already underway but noted such projects take years.
On a call with reporters on Thursday, Chief Commercial Officer Ryan Green said that there “will certainly be an impact to the fourth quarter.”
But executives declined to provide an estimate of how much the disruptions will cost the airline in total. A similar incident in October 2021 cost the airline about $75 million, the carrier said last year, but this event lasted longer, with more travelers flying because of the holidays and sharply higher fares.
The carrier previously said it expected quarterly revenue to rise as much as 17% over 2019, when it brought in close to $6 billion.

‘Not much love’

Southwest faces significant customer service challenges to reimburse travelers for costs relates to canceled flights. Some travelers incurred other expenses beyond hotels and meals, such as to replace toiletries and other essentials.
Jack Leon, a 34-year old teacher who planned to fly Southwest on Christmas Day, canceled his trip to Boston after a slew of flight changes that would have cut his vacation in half. Leon had to go back to the airport on Thursday, four days after his trip was derailed, to secure reimbursement for his return flight after being unable to reach customer service via phone, email or an online form.
“For a company that talks about love and has a heart as their graphic, there was not much love on Christmas day,” Leon said.
In an attempt to placate its most loyal customers, Southwest said Thursday it will extend the qualifying period for elite statuses such as free Wi-Fi, early boarding and in some cases, a companion pass.
Suzie Chism, a 33-year-old recording artist from Nashville, told CNBC her Dec. 26 Southwest flight home from Las Vegas was canceled, causing her to miss a week of work and her final musical performance of the year.
“My two night trip is suddenly a week long,” Chism said. “The loss of income is crushing.”
Chism said she was able to book a new flight with Frontier for Friday night.
“I simply do not trust Southwest to get me there,” she said.
Some competitors said they would cap fares for certain cities to help stranded Southwest passengers reach their destinations without surging prices, but fare searches on Thursday still returned some one-way flights for $600 or more.
The moves came after Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg urged carriers to cap fares.
In a letter to Southwest’s CEO on Thursday, Buttigieg said he would hold Southwest accountable if it doesn’t promptly refund travelers for canceled flights, reimburse them for expenses and return lost bags.
“No amount of financial compensation can fully make up for passengers who missed moments with their families that they can never get back — Christmas, birthdays, weddings, and other special events,” Buttigieg wrote. “That’s why it is so critical for Southwest to begin by reimbursing passengers for those costs that can be measured in dollars and cents.”
Buttigieg told NBC Nightly News the Transportation Department would put Southwest “under a microscope” and levy fines if necessary to ensure the airline does right by passengers.
Several lawmakers also said they would look into what caused Southwest’s outsized problems over the past week.
Southwest shares gained nearly 4% Thursday, but shares are still down more than 7% this week at about $33 per share. CFRA Research earlier Thursday cut its 12-month price target for Southwest from $47 to $41 but maintained its strong buy rating on the stock.
“History shows customers tend not to permanently ditch an airline even after an awful experience due to the commodity-like nature of the product,” CFRA analyst Colin Scarola wrote.
Not all customers agree.
Alex Kain, 37, was supposed to fly home on Christmas Eve to Seattle from Denver, one of the airports hit hardest by the disruptions. Instead, after Kain’s flight was canceled at 2 a.m., he and his girlfriend drove 18 hours in a rental car to an airport in Redmond, Oregon, where they took an Alaska Airlines flight home.
At minimum, the couple is planning to request reimbursement for the hotels, the rental car, the gas and the Alaska Airlines flight. Kain estimated the costs total as much as $3,000.
“There’s no amount of money they could give us to make us fly Southwest again,” Kain told CNBC.

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Pelé has died at age 82, his daughter announced.
He was a Brazilian soccer icon and the only player to win the World Cup three times.
FIFA named him the “greatest of all time” in 2012 and the International Olympic Committee named him the “athlete of the century” in 1999.

Brazilian football legend Pele poses with the FIFA World Cup trophy on March 9, 2014 in Paris.
Franck Fife | AFP | Getty Images

Pelé, the Brazilian soccer icon who brought the World Cup trophy to his home country three times, becoming an international superstar and the highest-paid team athlete in the world at the time, has died. He was 82.
His daughter Kely Nascimento announced his death Thursday on Instagram.

Pelé’s health had been deteriorating as he aged. Doctors at Albert Einstein Hospital in São Paulo said in late December that he was receiving “elevated care” related to “kidney and cardiac dysfunctions” stemming from the cancer he had been fighting for more than a year. He also had a respiratory infection, and his family said he would be staying in the hospital over the Christmas holiday.
“Inspiration and love marked the journey of King Pelé, who peacefully passed away today,” a statement on his organization’s website read. “On his journey, Edson enchanted the world with his genius in sport, stopped a war, carried out social works all over the world and spread what he most believed to be the cure for all our problems: love. His message today becomes a legacy for future generations.”

(Watch Pele’s 2015 interview with CNBC Europe above)
Born Edson Arantes do Nascimento on Oct. 23, 1940, he was almost exclusively known as Pelé — a nickname he supposedly earned after he mispronounced another footballer’s name.
Pelé joined the Santos Football Club in Brazil in 1956 at age 15 as an inside forward. The club won the São Paulo league championships and, in 1962 and 1963, both the Libertadores Cup and the Intercontinental Club Cup.

The forward, who operated as a second striker, made his international debut just a year after joining Santos, in 1957, and played at the World Cup the following year at age 17 — the youngest player ever. He picked up a hat trick in the semifinal against France and scored two goals in the championship game against the 1958 tournament host, Sweden.
After bursting onto the world stage and dazzling with his ability to land difficult shots in the net, Brazil declared that Pelé was a “national treasure,” a move to prevent him from being scooped up by wealthier European teams. Instead, Santos went on an international tour to give fans a chance to see the star.
Pelé tore a muscle at the next World Cup tournament in 1962 and had to sit out after the second match, but the Brazilian national team prevailed and picked up back-to-back titles. Brazil lost in the first round at the next World Cup, in 1966, after Pelé and others suffered injuries.
He considered retiring from international play, but made a triumphant return in 1970 to win it all once again. Pelé closed out his World Cup career netting 12 goals in 14 games and remains the only soccer player to win the trophy three times.
Pelé retired from Santos in 1974 after scoring a mind-boggling 643 goals in 659 games.
He was coaxed out of retirement a year later to join his second-ever team, the New York Cosmos. At 34, he signed a three-year $7 million deal to play for the U.S. team, which The New York Times reported at the time made him the highest-paid team athlete in the world. He ended up playing for the Cosmos for two years, helping them win the North American Soccer League trophy, and he was widely credited with increasing popularity in the sport in the U.S.
His last-ever game was an exhibition match between Santos and the Cosmos. He played the first half with the Cosmos and the second half with his beloved Santos. When the time expired, his teammates lifted the emotional Pelé onto their shoulders and paraded him around the field.
“In simple terms, Pelé made soccer cool,” Shep Messing, a goalkeeper for the Cosmos, told ESPN 40 years after that last game. “Mick Jagger, Elton John, Robert Redford at the games. Muhammad Ali, he was there on the field for that final game, and at that time, the two most recognizable people on the planet were the two of them.”
Pelé scored more than 1,000 goals in the course of his career, earning a Guinness World Record.
He used his platform after soccer to support charitable works and try to improve the lives of Brazil’s poor. He became a UNESCO global ambassador in 1994 and served as a minister for sport in Brazil. He also published several autobiographies that went on to become bestsellers and starred in documentary films about his life.
He and Argentine star Diego Maradona, who was younger than Pelé and played after his retirement, have often been discussed as the greatest players of all time — even being jointly named the “player of the century” by FIFA in 2000. Despite the competition, the two struck up a friendship before Maradona died in 2020 after years of trading jabs.
“I want to thank Pelé. We know who he is and who he will always be. We need icons like him,” Maradona said at a friendly exhibition match in 2016.
FIFA ultimately named Pelé the “greatest of all time” in 2012 and the International Olympic Committee named him the “athlete of the century” in 1999.
After his death was announced Thursday, tributes from the soccer world poured in.
Santos tweeted out a reference to his nickname, “O Rei” or “The King.”
Portuguese star Cristiano Ronaldo praised “The King” on social media as well.
“A mere ‘goodbye’ to the eternal King Pelé will never be enough to express the pain that the entire football world is currently embracing,” Ronaldo said. “An inspiration to so many millions, a reference yesterday, today and forever. The love you always showed me was reciprocated in every moment we shared even from distance. He will never be forgotten and his memory will live forever in each and every one of us football lovers.”
France forward Kylian Mbappé, who scored a hat trick in the most recent World Cup final earlier this month in Qatar, said Pelé’s “legacy will never be forgotten.”
And former English footballer Geoff Hurst said, “I have so many memories of Pele, without doubt the best footballer I ever played against. … For me Pele remains the greatest of all time and I was proud to be on the the pitch with him. RIP Pele.”

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