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CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday looked ahead to next week’s earnings and economic data calendar.
Wall Street is growing increasingly concerned that the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign will tip the U.S. economy into a recession.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday looked ahead to next week’s earnings and economic data calendar, which will provide fresh insights on Wall Street’s primary worry: whether the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-hiking campaign will tip the U.S. into a recession.
“We want the Fed to talk a big game, without needing to actually do too much,” Cramer said on Friday’s episode of “Mad Money.” “Talk is better than action. We want [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] to scare the economy into slowing under its own weight. We don’t want endless rate hikes … that will destroy everything in its path.”

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Cramer’s comments Friday came after the stock market wrapped up back-to-back losing weeks, with the S&P 500 now down 5.6% in December. The decline has come as investors grow more concerned that the U.S. economy will enter a recession next year. On Wednesday, the Fed raised interest rates by half a percentage point to their highest levels in 15 years.
All estimates for earnings, revenue and economic data are courtesy of FactSet.

Tuesday: Housing starts and earnings from General Mills, FedEx and Nike

November housing starts

Seasonally adjusted annual rate: 1.41 million

The Census Bureau’s Tuesday morning report on residential construction is notable because of the surge in home prices during the Covid pandemic, according to Cramer. Building more homes is one way to bring prices down and help cool inflation overall. However, he cautioned that concern about the U.S. economy makes it unlikely November housing starts will be robust.
General Mills

Q2 2023 earnings before the bell; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
Projected EPS: $1.06
Projected revenue: $5.19 billion

General Mills has a tough setup into earnings, Cramer said, because shares have surged 29% year to date despite the market’s brutal year overall. The company has been able to raise prices because its cereal brands are beloved, he noted.
FedEx

Q2 2023 earnings after the close; conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET
Projected EPS: $2.82
Projected sales: $23.70 billion

Last time FedEx reported, it detailed significant cost-cutting plans that should help boost profitability. Cramer said for any investor who thinks the Federal Reserve may not ultimately raise interest rates as high as it projects, a post-earnings sell-off could create an opportunity to buy FedEx shares.
Nike

Q2 2023 earnings at 4:15 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
Projected EPS: 65 cents
Projected sales: $12.58 billion

Nike has received a spate of analyst upgrades lately, which Cramer said is likely because analysts are trying to get out ahead of the Chinese economy’s full-scale reopening. “I think they’re going to be right,” he said.

Wednesday: Earnings from Carnival, Cintas and Micron

Carnival Corp

Q4 2022 earnings release before the open; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
Projected loss: loss of 88 cents per share
Projected revenue: $3.9 billion

Spending on experiences has remained resilient despite economic slowdown concerns, and Cramer said he expects Carnival management to still sound bullish.
Cintas

Q2 2023 earnings before the bell; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
Projected EPS: $3.03
Projected sales: $2.13 billion

Cramer said the business services company is an interesting barometer for the overall state of small and medium-size enterprises. “If Cintas says business is better than ever,” Cramer said, it could suggest the Fed will need to stay aggressive.
Micron Technology

Q1 2023 earnings after the close; conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET
Projected loss: loss of 1 cent per share
Projected revenue: $4.14 billion

Cramer said he’ll be closely listening to what the memory chipmaker has to say about inventory levels. If Micron indicates there is still a glut, Cramer said semiconductor stocks writ large could see another leg down. “I think the most likely outcome will be a glut, and you’ll see a lot of chip stocks for sale Thursday.”

Thursday: Earnings from Paychex and Carmax

Paychex

Q2 2023 earnings before the open; conference call at 9:30 a.m. ET
Projected EPS: 95 cents
Projected sales: $1.19 billion

Cramer said he thinks Paychex is an even better small- and medium-size business barometer than Cintas. But just like with Cintas, Cramer said if Paychex talks about a healthy business environment, it could mean the Fed may need to issue a few more half-percentage point rate hikes.
Carmax

Q3 2023 earnings before the bell; conference call at 9 a.m. ET
Projected EPS: 73 cents
Projected revenue: $7.34 billion

From an inflation and Fed-policy standpoint, Cramer said Carmax is another company he hopes indicates sales are weak and prices are coming down.

Friday: Inflation data

November personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index

Core month-over-month: 0.2% expected
Core year-over-year: 4.6% expected

The core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge. It excludes food and energy. Cramer said if the PCE data suggests inflation is “still burning hot,” the Fed may need to keep its foot on the gas.

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State of Freight

Union Pacific is pausing its use of embargoes, a method to control freight rail traffic which has been scrutinized by federal regulators and rail labor unions.
The Surface Transportation Board has questioned a ‘disturbing upward trend’ in embargo use by the railroad as part of its federal oversight of transportation service levels.
Unions have tied the used of embargoes and service delays back to ongoing concerns about labor policy.

A Union Pacific freight train carries goods east near Palm Springs, California, a key link in the roadways and railways that connect the southern California metropolitan areas, as well as the busiest port complex in the nation, with the rest of the U.S.
David Mcnew | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Union Pacific is pausing the use of embargoes on its freight network, a practice that had increased significantly this year and led the Surface Transportation Board to call Union Pacific CEO Lance Fritz and other of the rail’s top executives to a hearing in Washington, D.C., earlier this week.
In a letter addressed to STB chairman Martin Oberman and sent to the STB on Friday by Fritz, the Union Pacific CEO stated, “We are taking a hard look at our use of congestion-related embargoes. To facilitate that hard look, we are immediately pausing any additional embargoes under the pipeline inventory management program we began in November.”

According to STB data, the railroad’s use of embargoes to control congestion increased from a total of five in 2017 to more than 1,000 to date in 2022. Reports that the embargoes are hampering shippers’ operations and adding to supply chain problems for the national economy were among reasons that led STB to call the hearing.
Union Pacific carries nearly 27% of freight served by rail and nearly 11% of all long-distance freight volume. 
The railroad has contended that due to its geographic span, number of yards, customer facilities, and commodity mix that embargoes are one of the few tools it has to manage and meter customer-controlled railcar inventory levels and alleviate network congestion. It has also referred to embargoes as a tool of “last resort.”
The STB has been vocal about its frustrations with Union Pacific, stating ahead of the Dec. 13-14 hearings that Union Pacific “failed to provide any detail” in response to an order from the STB to explain a “dramatic increase in embargoes since 2017,” including whether UP has maintained sufficient resources during that time period.
The STB has been interested in how UP’s staffing and service levels have impacted the supply chain and if a lack of labor is part of the reason behind the embargoes. Unions have said that even as major freight rail companies add workers, the data supplied to STB on hiring is masking a longer-term trend of labor attrition. A labor lawyer who testified at this week’s hearing said that the class I freight rails may be hiring, but they are not retaining existing workers so there is no net gain.

“Instead, they are lengthening trains to sizes that exceed infrastructure capacity which is adding to the congestion, instead of adding workers to improve the service,” said Richard Edelman, one of the attorneys representing the rail unions.
A CNBC review of the Union Pacific labor data supplied to the STB and starting January 2019 through October details the history of labor attrition, a timeframe that includes the combination of the deployment of the company’s precision railroading strategy called, Unified Plan 2020, which was launched in October 2018 and rolled out in phases across the entire Union Pacific rail network. The impact of the Covid pandemic can also be seen in the drop in labor.
According to a Union Pacific spokesperson, total craft hiring was 27,753 in October 2022 compared to 32,315 in October 2019.
Union membership data shows employment on all of the Class I rails, including Union Pacific, is down from just before the start of the pandemic and even down between October 2021 and October 2022. More

Tyson Foods hit a 52-week low in a third-straight down day.
Investors are losing confidence in the company amid growing margin pressure and operational issues this year.
At least seven major Wall Street firms have “hold” or “sell” ratings on the stock, which is down 30% in 2022.

A package of Tyson Foods Inc. chicken is arranged for a photograph in Tiskilwa, Illinois.
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Tyson Foods hit a 52-week low on Friday in a third-straight down day, a sign that investors are losing confidence in the company amid growing margin pressure and operational issues this year.
The food processor’s stock declined more than 4% this week to trade around $61 per share, its lowest levels since November 2020 and well under its 52-week high of $100.72, notched in February. The stock is down roughly 30% in 2022.

Investment firm Piper Sandler said late Wednesday it was growing “more cautious” on the company as recent months have seen a squeeze on the company’s margins due to the higher costs of cattle-raising and lower retail prices for meat.
Deflating prices of beef and chicken in recent months coupled with rising feeding costs have put broader pressure on the livestock industry.
Staffing shortages and chick-hatching problems have made it difficult for Tyson to keep up with orders, according to a Wall Street Journal report in July. Tyson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Piper Sandler projected a three-year average earnings decline of 3.9% from 2023 to 2025. The firm maintains a “hold” rating on the stock with a price target of $68 per share.

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Tyson’s tumble extends a downswing for the stock in the second half of the year.

The company posted a strong first quarter with sales rising over 23% to nearly $13 billion, exceeding the company’s own expectations and almost doubling profits.
But Piper Sandler downgraded Tyson shares in May, warning budget-conscious consumers would look for cheaper meat brands as inflation drove up prices.
Though meats, poultry, fish and egg prices were down month over month in November, according to the consumer price index inflation report, the categories are still up nearly 7% over last year.
Barclays and Argus Research also downgraded Tyson this year, citing similar concerns. At least seven major Wall Street firms have “hold” or “sell” ratings on the stock, according to research compiled by FactSet.
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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Ford has once again increased the starting price of its electric F-150 Lightning, citing higher raw material costs for the pickup truck.
The new $4,000 price increase means Ford has upped the entry-level pricing of the F-150 Lightning electric pickup by 40% since the vehicle’s launch.

Ford workers produce the electric F-150 Lightning pickup on Dec. 13, 2022 at the automaker’s Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle Center (REVC).
Michael Wayland | CNBC

DETROIT – Ford Motor has once again increased the starting price of its electric F-150 Lightning, citing higher raw material costs for the pickup truck.
The new price of the F-150 Lightning Pro, an entry-level model meant for commercial and business customers, will be $55,974 — up nearly 8%, or $4,000, from previous pricing and a 40% increase from the original pricing of $39,974 announced in May 2021.

A Ford spokeswoman in an emailed statement Friday said the company adjusts vehicle pricing “as a normal course of business due to rising material costs, market factors, and ongoing supply chain constraints.”
Ford initially made waves when it announced the starting price for the Lightning would be about $40,000, making it more affordable than many EVs on the market. Wall Street praised the vehicle, and it was a major boost for the company at that time.
But critical raw material costs such as cobalt, nickel and lithium have substantially increased amid rising demand and supply chain problems.
The latest pricing increase – at least the third this year – comes as Ford attempts to expand production of the electric pickup to 150,000 units by next fall. The company earlier this week said it remains on track to do so, as it recently added a third shift of workers to a Michigan plant producing the vehicle.
“Demand for this breakthrough vehicle is strong and continues to grow, we will continue to monitor pricing through the model year,” the spokeswoman said in the emailed statement.
Through the end of November, Ford had only sold 13,258 F-150 Lightnings.

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Preview screenings for James Cameron and Disney’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” reached $17 million domestically.
A whopping 61% of Thursday’s domestic tickets were for 3D showings.
Heading into the weekend the “Avatar” sequel saw an even split between the number of 3D screens and 2D screens.

James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” snared $17 million during its Thursday night previews on its way towards a $175 million opening weekend.
The number itself is not particularly remarkable compared to other cinematic releases this year, but the percentage of tickets that were sold for 3D and premium format screenings is quite notable.

A whopping 61% of Thursday’s domestic tickets were for 3D showings.
Marvel Studio’s “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” produced $36 million during its Thursday previews, the highest of any film in 2022. “Thor: Love and Thunder” was the second-highest with $29 million followed by “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” which snapped up $28, and Warner Bros.’ “The Batman,” which took $21 million in early ticket sales.
Premium formats will be a big factor in the film’s opening weekend and its overall box office run. Director Cameron and Disney have marketed “The Way of Water” as a must-see 3D movie, meaning the majority of showings for the film will require special glasses and a steeper ticket price.
This is particularly important considering Cameron told GQ that the film will need to become the third or fourth-highest grossing film in history to break even – meaning that it needs to generated more than $2 billion at the global box office during its initial run in theaters.
EntTelligence estimates that for “The Way of Water” 3D tickets will average around $16.50 each while 2D will cost around $12.50 a piece.

Heading into the weekend the “Avatar” sequel saw an even split between the number of 3D screens and 2D screens. This is the highest ratio of any film released this year. The second-highest was “Wakanda Forever” with 17% 3D showings.
On Thursday, the film made $50.4 million from international ticket sales, excluding China. In Europe, 71% of tickets sold came from 3D and premium format showings. Meanwhile, in Asia-Pacific, which includes Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, 39% of box office receipts were for these more expensive showings.
So far, China has tallied $5 million in advanced screenings, with expectations that opening day will top $18.5 million.
“Every marathon starts with that first step and for ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ this is just the beginning,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. The movie has earned generally positive reviews, as well.
“Avatar,” which was released in 2009, only made $77 million during its opening weekend, but went on to become the highest-grossing film of all time. It maintains that title thanks to several rereleases.
The film had incredible staying power at the box office, running in theaters through August 2010, a staggering 234 days. “Avatar” ultimately generated $760 million in the U.S. and Canada and more than $2 billion from international markets during its initial theatrical run.
At the time, theatrical windows typically ran for 75 to 90 days. These days, the timing between theatrical release has narrowed to around 45 days. Of course, there have been exceptions, including Paramount and Skydance’s “Top Gun: Maverick” which has been in theaters for 203 days and continues playing.

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U.S. automotive safety officials have opened a formal probe into the autonomous driving system used by General Motors’ self-driving vehicle unit Cruise.
The NHTSA said it has received complaints about the self-driving vehicles engaging in “inappropriately hard braking” or becoming “immobilized while operating,” according to a filing.
The investigation comes as Cruise awaits regulatory approval to expand its robotaxi service in San Francisco.

A Cruise vehicle in San Francisco, California, on Wednesday Feb. 2, 2022.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. automotive safety officials have opened a formal probe into the autonomous driving system used by General Motors’ self-driving vehicle unit Cruise.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it has received complaints about the self-driving vehicles – retrofitted Chevrolet Bolt EVs – engaging in “inappropriately hard braking” or becoming “immobilized while operating,” according to a filing.

Officials said although the two types of incidents appear to be separate from one another, they each result in the Cruise vehicles becoming unexpected roadway obstacles.
“This may introduce multiple potential hazards such as a collision with a Cruise vehicle, risk to a stranded passenger exiting an immobilized Cruise vehicle, or obstruction of other traffic including emergency vehicles,” the NHTSA said in the filing.
Drew Pusateri, a spokesman for Cruise, a majority-owned unit of GM, said the San Francisco-based company has and will continue “to fully cooperate with NHTSA or any regulator.”
Pusateri said in an email that there’s “always a balance between healthy regulatory scrutiny and the innovation we desperately need to save lives.” He said the company has driven nearly 700,000 fully autonomous miles in an “extremely complex urban environment with zero life-threatening injuries or fatalities.”
The probe involves about 240 of the vehicles equipped with the software system, according to the NHTSA. Each of the crash incidents had already been reported, as mandated by regulations involving self-driving vehicles.

Cruise attributes the crashes to the vehicles “predicting and responding to the behavior of aggressive or erratic road actors.” The company said the cars were “working to minimize collision severity and risk of harm.”
The federal investigation, which was opened earlier this week, comes as Cruise awaits regulatory approval to expand its robotaxi service in San Francisco from about 30% of the city to the entire municipality.
The NHTSA said it has received multiple reports of both incidents, including three instances of hard braking that resulted in the car being struck from behind. The safety agency said the specific number of the vehicles that have become immobilized on the road is unknown, however such incidents have been confirmed by the company and reported by media outlets.
The NHTSA said the Office of Defects Investigation will determine “the scope and severity of the potential problem and fully assess the potential safety-related issues posed by these two types of incidents.”

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Space infrastructure and imagery company Maxar agreed to go private through an acquisition led by Advent International.
The all-cash deal gives Maxar an enterprise value of about $6.4 billion.
“We took a very hard and thoughtful look at all of the factors,” Maxar CEO Dan Jablonsky told CNBC. “This turned out to be the right transaction at the right time.”

Inside the company’s Palo Alto, California manufacturing facility,

Space imagery and infrastructure company Maxar on Friday announced an agreement to go private through an acquisition led by Advent International.
The all-cash deal gives Maxar an enterprise value of about $6.4 billion. Private equity firm Advent is taking a $3.1 billion stake in Maxar, with British Columbia Investment Management Corporation also making a $1 billion equity contribution.

“We’re really excited about it,” Maxar CEO Dan Jablonsky told CNBC. He said it would “allow us to invest even faster in the business, accelerate things like Legion seven and eight [satellites], and other technologies we’ve been developing.”
Shares of Maxar closed at $23.10 on Thursday, so the agreement with Advent at $53 a share represents a price nearly 130% above where the stock has recently traded.

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Jablonsky has led a multi-year turnaround effort at Maxar since he was appointed CEO in January 2019, with the stock trading near $5 a share. The deal price with Advent is near the highs Maxar shares hit in early 2021, before dropping alongside other space stocks this year.
“We took a very hard and thoughtful look at all of the factors,” Jablonsky said. “This turned out to be the right transaction at the right time.”
A key aspect of Maxar’s agreement with Advent is a 60-day “go-shop period,” which ends on Feb. 14, for the company to consider alternative proposals.

Because of that, Jablonsky noted that it’s “still very early days” for what the future of Maxar would look like under Advent. He declined to comment on whether the new owners may look to carve out Maxar’s businesses, in satellite imagery and manufacturing – or whether he’ll stay on.
“Love what we’ve built and what we’re doing here and probably can’t say a lot beyond that right now,” Jablonsky said.

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Darden Restaurants reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ expectations.
The company reported $2.49 billion in net sales, an increase of 9.4%.
Olive Garden, which accounts for nearly half of Darden’s revenue, saw an increase of 7.6% in same-store sales.

An Olive Garden restaurant in Times Square in New York
Richard Levine | Corbis | Getty Images

Darden Restaurants on Friday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street’s expectations, as consumers continued to eat out despite pressure from inflation.
The company also raised its earnings outlook for fiscal 2023 to a range of $10.3 billion to $10.45 billion from its previous range of $10.2 billion to $10.4 billion.

Here’s what the company reported for the fiscal second quarter ended Nov. 27, compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

Earnings per share: $1.52 adjusted vs. $1.44 expected.
Revenue: $2.49 billion vs. $2.43 billion expected.

Darden’s total sales rose 9.4% compared with the same quarter last year.
Darden also said its total expenses jumped to $2.25 billion from $2.03 billion a year earlier, driven primarily by higher food, beverage and labor costs.
CEO Rick Cardenas said in the company’s earnings release he’s pleased with the company’s results this quarter and said all of their brands “performed at a high level,” saying that the company “surpassed $10 billion in sales on a trailing 52-week basis for the first time in Darden’s history.”
Olive Garden, which accounts for nearly half of Darden’s revenue, saw same-store sales increase 7.6%, while overall same-store sales rose 7.3% for the company. The company saw a similar increase of 7.3% for LongHorn Steakhouse, its second biggest brand.

Darden also said it had 1,887 locations open as of the end of the quarter, compared with 1,852 last year.
Read the full earnings report here.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

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