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Black Friday remains the most popular holiday sales event for Americans, and while inflation is a top concern, consumers are not saying they will cut back sharply on spending, according to an annual shopping poll conducted by CNBC and SurveyMonkey.
More in-person shopping is slowing pandemic gains made by e-commerce.
A strong consumer is not translating into a big win for Main Street, as Small Business Saturday remains a distant third behind Black Friday and Cyber Monday among shoppers.

Pedestrians view the holiday windows at the Macy’s Inc. flagship department store in the Herald Square area of New York, U.S., on Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Americans are not planning major cuts in holiday spending this year, starting with Black Friday, despite inflation fears and the risk of recession being top concerns among the majority of consumers, according to an annual survey conducted by CNBC and SurveyMonkey ahead of the first big shopping weekend of peak season.
Two-thirds of Americans (67%) are worried about inflation making it more difficult for them to buy the items they want. Even more (69%) worry a recession will limit their ability to make purchases. But anticipated cutbacks in spending among consumers are only up slightly compared to last year — 39% versus 36% — with the majority of Americans saying they expect to spend the same (44%) or more (14%) this year, according to the annual CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Saturday poll.

“People are pretty consistent on how much they expect to spend on holiday shopping,” said Laura Wronski, senior manager of research science at Momentive. “Things are going to cost more and you have to accept that there is not some secret way to get around that high inflation,” she said. But she cautioned that there’s still the risk that consumer behavior changes once shoppers evaluate prices. “The intent may be different than the outcome. They will see some sticker shock out there and find their budget won’t go as far as previous years,” Wronski said.
The survey results reveal the consumer divide in the economy, with spending concerns more prevalent at lower income levels.
Seventy-eight percent of households earning less than $50,000 are concerned about their spending power amid inflation this holiday season, a figure which drops to 56% for household incomes of $100,000 or more.
Economic concerns are relatively high among younger Americans as well, with 73% of those 18-34 worried about being able to buy what they want due to inflation, the highest among any age group in the survey.
The data on inflation matches concerns in last year’s survey regarding a supply chain which at that time was broken.

“Inflation is playing that role of the supply chain saga this year,” Wronski said.
The SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted November 9-13, 2022 among a national sample of 3,549 adults.

Arrows pointing outwards

The National Retail Federation forecast released earlier this week predicted record sales for the first holiday shopping weekend, beginning on Black Friday, expecting eight million more shoppers (166 million) this year over last year, and the highest level since 2017.
Some recent earnings reports from retailers demonstrate the resilient consumer. Best Buy reported third quarter results that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations and said it expects holiday spending to look more similar to historical holiday periods, with customer shopping activity concentrated on Black Friday week, Cyber Monday and the two weeks leading up to December 25. Abercrombie & Fitch said this week it’s “cautiously optimistic” about holiday sales.
But the concerns about younger consumers have also been displayed in recent retail sales reports. Urban Outfitters CEO Richard Hayne said on its earnings call earlier this week that the company raised prices “more than we should have” at its stores — it has a younger consumer base that is more impacted by inflation. American Eagle Outfitters’ CEO said on its earnings call to expect, “a highly promotional holiday season.”
Retailers are expected to offer some pretty big discounts to move inventory, starting with Black Friday.

“Both inflation and recession are tied together and both top of mind for consumers, but habits are sticky,” Wronski said. “This is the time of year you are expected to make purchases and spend more than you should. … That’s the main takeaway. They aren’t making big changes despite the fact that they have recession concerns and we are in a high inflation environment.”
The CNBC|SurveyMonkey poll finds that with many consumer spending habits in line with the past, sharp changes in shopping patterns caused by the pandemic, such as e-commerce versus in-store, are settling into a new normal.
Here are a few more of the key findings from this year’s survey.
Black Friday is still the No. 1 shopping holiday
The survey has consistently found that the hype around shopping holidays is often higher than the actual excitement among consumers. More than half (55%) of survey respondents don’t plan to go shopping on Black Friday, Small Business Saturday or Cyber Monday. Last year, that figure was at 52%.
But Black Friday remains the No. 1 shopping holiday that Americans say they will spend on. One in five (21%) are “most excited” to go shopping on Black Friday, almost double the consumers planning to shop on Cyber Monday (12%). Small Business Saturday is a distant third, at 7%.
For small businesses, the concept of a holiday shopping day is more difficult to convey as there are so many different kinds of businesses that fit under the Main Street umbrella, Wronski noted, from the local bookstore to restaurants and many other types of retail, and there is also less coordination of discounts possible compared to the likes of big box retailers. 
There has been a steep decline over the past four years in holiday shoppers who plan to patronize a small business on Small Business Saturday, down from 44% in 2018 to 28% this year.

Arrows pointing outwards

Amazon and Small Business Saturday spending
The gains made by e-commerce may have contributed to a permanent decline in Small Business Saturday shopping interest, which is at a four-year low. But it’s also contributed to more small business purchases being made online, with the percentage of Americans planning to buy online from a small business this year doubling over the past four years, from 9% to 18%, while those who say they will patronize a small business in-person has fallen by 10% (from 58% vs. 48%). During the peak pandemic year of 2020, one-fifth (20%) of consumers planning to spend on Small Business Saturday said they would make purchases online, with this year’s results indicating permanent gains for Main Street e-commerce.
A correlation between the Amazon threat and Main Street’s struggles, meanwhile, is not in evidence in the survey results. Two-thirds of American adults (66%) say they have Amazon Prime subscriptions, virtually unchanged from last year, but they are much more likely to say they will spend on Small Business Saturday (33%). That’s nearly double the number of consumers who don’t subscribe to Amazon Prime (18%) and plan to shop on Small Business Saturday.
“We always hear about the Amazon threat but we never seen it play out that way,” Wronski said. “It shows up in some data in other ways, and Amazon is taking business away, but at same time people buying from Amazon are also buying from small businesses at higher rates,” she said, adding that one factor is a correlation between an Amazon Prime subscription and higher wealth levels.
E-commerce gains have slowed but are here to stay
This year has been a tough one for technology companies that bet the acceleration of gains made during the pandemic would continue with the behavior of Americans vastly changed. That’s not the case, but gains made by e-commerce do look to be settling into a permanent state.
More than half of shoppers (51%) say they prefer to do holiday shopping in-person, compared to those who prefer to shop online (47%). Those figures are unchanged from last year, but they do mark a significant shift from pre-pandemic years, according to SurveyMonkey. In 2018, 61% of holiday shoppers said they preferred to buy in-person, while 37% said they preferred to buy online. 
Online shoppers already spent a record amount on Thanksgiving Day. More

Frontier said it stopped offering customer service by phone last weekend.
The airline said customers can reach out by text or social media channels and WhatsApp.
The shift aims to lower labor costs and increase the number of customers it can help at once.

Frontier Airlines Airbus A320 takes off from Los Angeles international Airport on August 27, 2020 in Los Angeles, California.
AaronP | Bauer-Griffin | GC Images | Getty Images

Say goodbye to the airline call center −at least at Frontier Airlines.
The budget carrier last weekend completed its transition to online, mobile and text support, which enables it to ensure that customers get “the information they need as expeditiously and efficiently as possible,” spokeswoman Jennifer de la Cruz told CNBC in an e-mailed statement.

Passengers who call the customer service number Frontier lists on its website now get the message: “At Frontier, we offer the lowest fares in the industry by operating our airline as efficiently as possible. We want our customers to be able to operate efficiently as well, which is why we make it easy to find what you need at Flyfrontier.com or on our mobile app.”
Those who want to text with the carrier can get a link to do so sent to their phone.
Most major carriers still offer customer service lines. But Frontier, which charges fees for everything from advanced seat assignments to carry-on luggage and snacks, is often looking for ways to cut expenses. During its investor day earlier this month, Frontier hinted that it would stop offering customer service by phone, a change that travel site Travel Noire reported earlier this week.

Jack Filene, Frontier’s senior vice president of customers, said during the Nov. 15 investor presentation that the change would help lower labor costs and speed up transactions.
“We are supporting higher labor rates in the voice channel, and we’re limited to this one-to-one interaction,” Filene said. By contrast, he said a chat agent could handle three inquiries at once, and possibly more.

“Think about the most sort of obscure question a customer might ask that would take a call center agent many, many minutes to research and find an answer to. The chatbot can answer that very quickly,” he said.
Frontier had a $31 million profit on $906 million of operating revenue in the last quarter. It spent $182 million on labor costs, its second-biggest expense after jet fuel, up nearly 70% from the same period of 2019.
The change at Frontier comes as long hold times on customer service phone lines and other channels vexed travelers this year, many of whom also faced a surge in delays and cancellations over the summer that were worsened by labor shortages.
Airline executives have added back staff, while also rolling out more channels for customers to change flights themselves or to communicate over text.
Frontier isn’t alone in forgoing a call center. Breeze Airways, the new U.S. carrier launched by JetBlue founder David Neeleman, offers only text, email or Messenger options for customer service.
“With online options, our average Guest request is completed within 15-20 minutes,” Breeze spokesman Gareth Edmondson-Jones said.

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Americans hit websites on Thanksgiving Day to get a jump on Black Friday deals.
Online shoppers spent a record $5.29 billion on Thanksgiving, an increase of 2.9% year over year, according to Adobe. The typical day of online shopping results in $2 billion to $3 billion of sales.
It is a modest increase, however, compared to the 10% to 14% increases in previous years.

D3sign | Moment | Getty Images

After eating turkey and pie, lots of Americans also went on a shopping spree.
Thanksgiving Day online spending hit a record of $5.29 billion, an increase of 2.9% year over year, according to Adobe, which tracks sales on retailers’ websites. Typically, shoppers spend about $2 billion to $3 billion online in a day, according to Adobe.

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That increase was driven by demand, not inflation, according to Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe. Online sales haven’t been driven higher by inflation like store sales, since e-commerce is largely made up of electronics, apparel and other durables that have stayed stable in price or declined compared to groceries, he said.
For retailers, those early numbers may be a promising indicator about the weeks ahead. Early holiday forecasts have been muted. Target, Macy’s, Nordstrom and other companies reported a lull in sales in late October and early November. Consumer sentiment has weakened in the past month as inflation hovers near four-decade highs.
That has ratcheted up the pressure on Black Friday weekend — a time that stretches from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday, and one that’s often associated with the biggest deals.
Read more: Walmart overtakes Amazon in shoppers’ search for Black Friday bargains
So far, shoppers have been snapping up items. Some of the hottest categories have been toys, apparel and grills and outdoor equipment, Pandya said.

“Given the macroeconomic headwinds and backdrop coming into the season for consumers, the big question was, ‘Would the strength of discounts be able to keep demand strong and have it be stable – on par with what we saw last year?'” he said. “What we are seeing is the discounts being strong enough to entice consumers to continue to spend.”
And he added, online shopping did not have to compete as hard with brick-and-mortar this Turkey Day, after Walmart, Target and other major retailers decided to keep stores shuttered again this year.
Online sales growth on Thanksgiving Day was more modest, however. Since Adobe began tracking online holiday sales in 2012, the day has typically grown in the double-digit range year over year — by about 10% to 14%.
But the shopping holidays of Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday have become weaker as have retailers dangle deals earlier and earlier and stretch them across the season.
“Retailers still invest in these days – but as early discounts get introduced, that’s kept these days from growing as much as they used to once upon a time,” he said. “Now, they’re just large days and growing in a very modest fashion.”
Bigger holiday shopping days are yet to come. Black Friday is expected to draw $9 billion in spending. Cyber Monday is supposed to ring up $11.2 billion, which would be an increase of 5.1% year over year and cement that as the biggest online spending day, Adobe said.

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Most retailers are making changes their return policies as rising costs squeeze margins.
Expect shorter return windows and shipping or restocking fees.
To avoid paying return fees, check the policy before you buy, experts say.

The holiday shopping season is always closely followed by a spike in gift returning.
But this year, it may be harder to bring things back for free or at a low cost.

Roughly 60% of retailers said they’re making changes to existing returns policies, with fewer promising free returns, according to a recent survey of retail executives. 
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On average, retailers expect about 18%, or $158 billion, of merchandise sold during the holiday shopping season to be returned, according to the National Retail Federation’s most recent data.
For 2021 overall, the return rate was about 16.6% of total U.S. retail sales, or $761 billion in returned goods, and in 2022 fewer businesses are in a position to be able to afford such a hefty price tag.
With rising costs squeezing margins, many retailers are rethinking their return policies, shortening the return window and even charging a return or restocking fee, according to Spencer Kieboom, founder and CEO of Pollen Returns, a return-management company. 

Expect shorter return windows, restocking fees

A letter carrier holds Amazon.com packages while preparing a vehicle for deliveries at a United States Postal Service processing and distribution center in Washington, D.C.
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Stores such as Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic and J. Crew (which was once well known for a generous return policy that spanned the lifetime of a garment) have shortened their regular return windows to within a month. Year-end shoppers, however, are being given some reprieve: J. Crew and others are currently offering extended holiday returns and exchanges.
At Anthropologie, REI and L.L. Bean (which also once promised lifetime returns), there’s now a fee — all around $6 — for mailed returns.
“These adjustments in return policies are not there to cover costs,” Kieboom said. “They’re really there to deter the consumer from returning.” 

Rising costs squeeze margins

With the explosion of online shopping during the pandemic, “free returns was a high convenience model the customer appreciated,” said Erin Halka, senior director at Blue Yonder, a supply chain management company. Now, with higher labor and shipping expenses, it is costing retailers “a tremendous amount of money” to sustain, she said.
“Charging for returns is one way to cover a portion of that cost,” she said. “It also can deter customers from overbuying, since at least 10% of returned goods cannot be resold.”   
Just as retailers struggle with excess inventory, “often returns do not end up back on the shelf,” and that causes a problem for retailers struggling to streamline expenses and enhance sustainability, Kieboom said.

The supply chain is designed to go one way.

Lauren Beitelspacher
associate professor at Babson College

“The supply chain is designed to go one way,” said Lauren Beitelspacher, associate professor and chair of the marketing department at Babson College.
“The more money retailers lose on returns the more they have to make up for that by raising prices,” Beitelspacher said.
“Changing the return policy is an easier pill for the customer to swallow than an increase in the purchase price.”

How to avoid return fees

Still, shoppers love free returns almost as much as they love free shipping. In fact, 98% of consumers said that free shipping was the most important consideration when shopping online, followed by more than three-quarters who said the same about free returns, according to a recent report by PowerReviews. Affluent shoppers were even more likely to favor a free-return policy.
If the option to return is important, get to know the policies before you buy, experts say. Often, it’s not immediately clear, Halka said. “You typically have to dig into the fine print.”

Expect limitations on what can be sent back and when, she said. “A 30-day window is now typical.”
That time is well spent in terms of making the best possible decision on your purchase. “You have to find the return policy that works best for you,” Kieboom said.
For those looking to avoid returns altogether, shopping in person may be the way to go, Beitelspacher suggested. “The majority of returns come from having regret because it’s not what we expected. Shopping in person minimizes that expectation-reality gap,” she said.
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With inflation near record highs, fewer consumers tip 20% or more.
When it comes to takeout, tips are now down to 14.4%, on average, according to a recent report.
And still, most people say they feel pressured to tip when they normally wouldn’t because of the gratuity prompt on the iPad screen.

The Sweetly Bakery & Cafe in Battleground, Washington
Source: Irina Sirotkina

It’s the holiday season, yet Americans are feeling a little less generous.
With inflation near record highs, cash-strapped consumers have started to tip less — especially when it comes to fast casual dining and carryout.

“Tipping is that first sign towards reduced spending,” said Amanda Belarmino, assistant professor of hospitality at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
About 17% of Americans are tipping less due to inflation, while only 10% are tipping more, according to a recent survey of more than 1,000 people by PlayUSA. More than half, or 54%, also said they feel pressure to leave a tip when checking out on an iPad.
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“Since everything got more expensive, we’ve seen a decline in tipping,” said Irina Sirotkina, owner of the Sweetly Bakery & Cafe in Battle Ground, Washington.
Like many other businesses, the bakery uses a contactless and digital payment method, which prompts consumers to leave a tip when they pay. There are predetermined options ranging from 15% to 25% for each transaction.

“We encourage people to tip, but it’s not mandatory, obviously,” Sirotkina said.
Although the average transaction at Sweetly is less than $20, which means a gratuity would be a few dollars at most, fewer people leave anything at all.
“Only around 1 in 5 people tip,” Sirotkina estimated.

Fewer consumers tip 20% or more

Even though many Americans said they would tip more than usual once business activities resumed after the Covid pandemic, consumer habits, in the end, haven’t changed much. 
Tipping 20% at a sit-down restaurant is still the standard, etiquette experts say. But there’s less consensus about gratuity for a carryout coffee or take-away snack.
While tipping at full-service restaurants has held steady, averaging 19.6%, according to Toast’s most recent restaurant trends report, tips at quick-service restaurants fell slightly from a year ago to 16.8%.

When it comes to takeout, customers are tipping even less — now down to 14.4%, on average, after it climbed earlier in the pandemic, Toast found.
Only 43% of diners typically tip 20% or more, down from 56% last year, a separate report by restaurant tech company Popmenu found.
“Tipping behavior may fluctuate depending on market conditions,” said Brendan Sweeney, CEO and co-founder of Popmenu. 

Americans have ‘tip fatigue’

“Part of it is tip fatigue,” said Eric Plam, founder and CEO of San Francisco-based startup Uptip, which aims to facilitate cashless tipping. 
“During Covid, everyone was shell-shocked and feeling generous,” Plam said. Now, “you are starting to see people pull back a little bit,” he noted, particularly when it comes to point-of-sale tipping, which prompts customers to tip even before they’ve received the product or service.
“This point-of-sale tipping is what people resist the most,” he said, “compelling you to tip right there on the spot.”

Workers rely on tips as inflation outpaces wages

Tipping 15% instead of 18% may not seem significant, “but if you’re a server, 3% of your income is pretty impactful,” Belarmino said.
In fact, the average wage for fast-food and counter workers is $14.34 an hour for full-time staff and $12.14 for part-time employees — including tips — according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Anyone who has ever worked in a restaurant knows how hard the everyday hustle can be and how much tips matter,” said Popmenu’s Sweeney.

Since transactions are increasingly cashless, having a method to tip workers in the service industry earning minimum or less than minimum wage is critical, Plam added.
A landmark bill in California aims to raise the minimum wage to up to $22 an hour for fast-food and quick-service workers at chains with more than 100 locations nationally. California’s current wage floor is $15.50 an hour.
President Joe Biden and many Democratic lawmakers have pushed for a $15 hourly wage floor across the U.S.
The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour and has remained unchanged since 2009.
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Black Friday weekend will take on additional importance this year after retailers like Target and Macy’s reported a recent lull in sales.
Retail executives chalked up the slower sales to a return to pre-pandemic holiday shopping patterns, warmer-than-usual weather and the midterm elections.
A record number of people — 166.3 million — are expected to shop over the long weekend, according to the National Retail Federation.

Black Friday sign in retail store in Walnut Creek, California.
Smith Collection/gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images

Major retailers are under intense pressure to deliver on Black Friday after several of them reported a slowdown in sales heading into the do-or-die holiday shopping season.
Macy’s, Target, Kohl’s, Gap and Nordstrom spoke about a lull in sales in late October and early November. Target cut its holiday-quarter outlook and Kohl’s pulled its forecast, citing the slow sales. Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette said shoppers kept visiting its stores and website during that lull, but the browsing did not turn into buying. Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said shoppers are showing more interest in sales than usual.

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Those results illustrate an emerging theme of this season: Shoppers are holding out for the biggest and best deals — especially as inflation hits their wallets.
“People are willing to wait and be patient,” said Rob Garf, vice president and general manager of retail for Salesforce, a software company that also tracks shopping trends. “The game of discount chicken is back and consumers will ultimately win.”
That big appetite for deals is fueling higher expectations for a bigger Black Friday weekend. Many major retailers, including Walmart and Target, will remain shuttered on Thanksgiving. Yet a record number of people — 166.3 million — are expected to shop during the weekend, which stretches from Thursday through Cyber Monday, according to an annual survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
That is up by nearly 8 million people than a year ago and the highest estimate since NRF began tracking the data in 2017.

Retailers and industry watchers have been anticipating a more muted holiday season with sales driven more by higher prices than a huge appetite for goods. The National Retail Federation is predicting a 6% to 8% increase in sales, including the boost from nearly record-high levels of inflation.

Travel and experiences are competing more fiercely for Americans’ wallets, too, as Covid-19 concerns fade.
Retail executives that have reported earnings have spoken of a shift back to the pre-pandemic style of gift purchasing. In the past two years, consumers shopped earlier and spread out gift-buying because of worries of shipping delays and out-of-stocks caused by a spike in online sales and congested ports.
This year, retailers once again started their sales early — but geared them toward selling excess inventory and catering to a more value-oriented consumer. Amazon threw a second Prime Day-like sale in October, and Target and Walmart had competing sales around the same time.

Shopping strategically

Yet so far, shoppers have been in no rush to buy.
Barry, the Best Buy CEO, said the company’s October sales were the slowest in the quarter compared with last year. She said the backdrop is very different from a year ago, when shoppers bought early and worried they may not get all the items on their wish list.
“That impetus to purchase just isn’t there this year,” she said. “Your average consumer knows there’s plenty of inventory and it’s going to be priced competitively.”
She said Best Buy now expects customers to spend more during Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the two weeks leading up to Christmas. The company has extended hours, staffed stores and even timed inventory for that schedule, she said.

Not only do you have dollars shifting to travel and entertainment, you also have dollars shifting to needs.

Chris Horvers
JPMorgan analyst

Other factors may have dampened demand in late October and November, too. On recent earnings calls, Gap and Nordstrom executives referred to unseasonably warm weather in the fall, which may have inspired consumers to hold off from dashing to stores to buy winter coats or heavy sweaters.
Plus, some Americans were tuning in to the midterm elections — highly contested races that caught their attention and may have contributed to economic uncertainty, too, said Chris Horvers, an equity research analyst who covers retail for JPMorgan.
But, he added, a weaker start to the holidays has also set off some alarms about the health of the consumer. Retailers have been cautious when sharing hopes for the season — and they have alluded to consumers who are dipping into savings accounts and running up credit card balances, despite putting up stronger-than-feared results for the third quarter.
“Not only do you have dollars shifting to travel and entertainment,” Horvers said, “you also have dollars shifting to needs.”
Plus, he said, it’s not all good news if people show up for Black Friday weekend.
“If the consumer is responsive to promotions this week and shops but then stops spending shortly thereafter, it’s going to reinforce this concern retailers already have that the consumer is only shopping in need and only is going to shop when there’s a discount.”

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It follows a Rolling Stone article published Tuesday with anonymous allegations that Ye showed pornographic and sexualized material to Yeezy staff during meetings and made sexualized remarks to female staff.
CNBC has not independently verified the claims.

Kanye West at an event announcing a partnership with Adidas on June 28, 2016 in Hollywood, California.
Getty Images

Adidas said it is investigating accusations made by staff relating to the conduct of the musician Ye during his partnership with the German sportswear brand and the response of senior company figures.
The company said in a statement late Thursday: “It is currently not clear whether the accusations made in an anonymous letter are true. However, we take these allegations very seriously and have taken the decision to launch an independent investigation of the matter immediately to address the allegations.”

It follows a Rolling Stone article published Tuesday with anonymous allegations that Ye showed pornographic and sexualized material to Yeezy staff during meetings and made sexualized remarks to female staff. CNBC has not independently verified the claims.
Rolling Stone also said a group of former Yeezy team members had sent an anonymous letter to Adidas accusing senior leaders at the company of turning a “blind eye” to the behavior and taking “delayed action” over it. It reportedly called for a public apology to the team.
A representative for Ye was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

Adidas terminated its partnership with Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, in October. It said his recent comments and actions had been “unacceptable, hateful and dangerous.”
Gap and Foot Locker then said they would remove Yeezy products from their stores. Designer brand Balenciaga announced it was cutting ties with the rapper and producer the week before.
Adidas also said it did not tolerate hate speech or offensive behavior and was in ongoing conversations with employees about the events leading up to the end of the Ye partnership.

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The CWU has announced 10 further days of strike action between Thursday and Christmas Eve, of which four have been formally notified, with the last falling on Dec. 1.
Workers across the U.K. are striking over pay, working conditions and pensions, with inflation running at its highest level for over 40 years and the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) last week projecting the steepest fall in living standards since records began.

LONDON – Strikers from the CWU Trade Union attend the picket line at Peckham Royal Mail centre on November 24, 2022 in London, England. Strikes planned for the Black Friday weekend and the run-up to Christmas will go ahead after talks between Royal Mail and the Communication Workers Union ended without agreement.
Guy Smallman/Getty Images

LONDON — Thousands of postal workers in the U.K. are on a two-day strike, disrupting Black Friday after talks between Royal Mail and the Communication Workers Union fell through.
Leaders of the trade union, which represents around 115,000 striking postal workers, re-entered negotiations with Royal Mail executives early last month, with talks now having spanned seven months.

However, Royal Mail Group — recently renamed International Distributions Services on the London Stock Exchange — said in a statement Wednesday that it had tabled its “best and final offer” and accused the union of “holding Christmas to ransom.”
The CWU has announced 10 further days of strike action up until Christmas Eve, of which four have been formally notified, with the last falling on Dec. 1.
In October, Royal Mail revealed plans to cut up to 10,000 jobs by next summer and posted a half-year adjusted operating loss of £219 million ($265.3 million), and CEO Simon Thompson said the strikes had already added £100 million to the company’s losses so far this year. IDS shares have fallen more than 58% since the start of the year.
“In a materially loss-making company, with every additional day of strike action we are facing the difficult choice of whether we spend our money on pay and protecting jobs, or on the cost of strikes,” Thompson said Wednesday.
“The CWU’s planned strike action is holding Christmas to ransom for our customers, businesses and families across the country, and is putting their own members’ jobs at risk.”

The union on Wednesday said it met with Royal Mail executives, but claimed Thompson did not attend. In a statement, the CWU warned of “the end of Royal Mail as we know it.”
Royal Mail claims its latest offer includes an enhanced pay deal of up to 9% over 18 months, a new profit share program for employees, a block on compulsory redundancies until the end of March 2023 and an improvement to voluntary redundancy packages.
However, the union accused the company’s executives of “turning Royal Mail Group into a gig economy-style parcel courier, reliant on casual labour,” imposing compulsory redundancies on postal workers while retaining agency staff on lower pay, and offering a “wholly inadequate, non-backdated 3.5% pay increase.”
It also said the deal on the table included cuts to sick pay, removal of a Sunday premium payment, later start and finishing times and the “introduction of technology that will monitor postal workers every minute of the day.”

BIRMINGHAM, U.K. – November 24, 2022: Postal workers on the picket line at the Central Delivery Office and Mail Centre in Birmingham. Members of the Communication Workers Union (CWU) are holding a 48-hour strike in a long-running dispute over jobs, pay and conditions.
Jacob King/PA Images via Getty Images

“We will not accept that 115,000 Royal Mail workers — the people who kept us connected during the pandemic, and made millions in profit for bosses and shareholders — take such a devastating blow to their livelihoods,” said CWU General Secretary Dave Ward.
“These proposals spell the end of Royal Mail as we know it, and its degradation from a national institution into an unreliable, Uber-style gig economy company.”
Postal workers in August voted overwhelmingly in favor of strike action in protest at pay and conditions, after Royal Mail initially imposed a 2% pay increase on workers while U.K. inflation was heading toward double digits. U.K. inflation hit 11.1% in October.
The union is calling for an improved 18-month pay deal, a guarantee of no compulsory redundancies and an “alternative business strategy that would see Royal Mail Group use its competitive advantage to grow as a company, instead of becoming a gig economy parcel employer.”
Strikes across sectors
Workers across the public and private sectors are striking in the U.K. over pay, working conditions and pensions, with inflation running at its highest level for over 40 years and the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) last week projecting the steepest fall in living standards since records began.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated that an average of 19,500 working days per month were lost to industrial action in 2019, but this has risen since the Covid-19 pandemic, and hit 87,600 in July 2022.
Rail strikes have brought the country’s train services to a virtual standstill on multiple days throughout the year, and the RMT union, whose members work for Network Rail and 14 other train operators, recently voted in favor of four more 48-hour rail strikes in the run-up to Christmas.
The Royal College of Nursing recently announced that its members will stage walkouts by the end of the year for the first time in its 106-year history.
The British Medical Association will hold a ballot in January for junior doctors in England over a pay deal that would offer them a 2% increase this year, while 18,000 ambulance workers represented by the sizeable GMB and Unite unions are currently voting on strike action.

Scottish teachers held industrial action on Thursday which closed the vast majority of schools in Scotland, also demanding a 10% pay rise, and several U.K.-wide teachers’ unions representing a total of more than 400,000 teachers and support staff are holding ballots which close in January.
Telecoms workers staged strike action for the first time in more than 30 years in July in protest over pay, along with additional dates in August and October, while airline baggage handlers walked out for three days on Nov. 18.
Around 100,000 civil servants, including Border Force officials, also recently voted to strike over the Christmas period, demanding a 10% pay increase.

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