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    Charts suggest the market will bottom in the coming weeks followed by a ‘powerful' rally, Jim Cramer says

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday said that stocks could bottom later this month and present investors with an opportunity to add to their portfolios.
    Cramer said that chart interpreter Larry Williams wouldn’t be surprised if the current rally fizzles out, but he still believes there’ll be a meaningful bottom near the end of October.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Tuesday that stocks could bottom later this month and present investors with an opportunity to add to their portfolios.
    “The charts, as interpreted by Larry Williams, suggest that the bear market is more or less … toast and, even if the current rally stalls, he’s predicting a big move either toward the end of this month or the beginning of November,” Cramer said.

    related investing news

    The stock market may look oversold, but it can fall even further, technical strategists say

    Stocks gained on Tuesday following the August job openings report that indicated that the labor market is cooling, continuing the rally from the prior trading session.
    Cramer said that Williams wouldn’t be surprised if the current rally fizzles out, but he still believes there’ll be a meaningful bottom near the end of the month, followed by a rally through Election Day on Nov. 8. 
    “In other words, he thinks you should be prepared for a terrific buying opportunity, even if the current move gets repealed,” Cramer said.
    To explain Williams’ analysis, he first examined the chart of the S&P 500 futures, in black. The chart also has what Williams calls the true seasonal pattern, in blue. 

    Arrows pointing outwards

    The pattern is based on the historical action at any given point in the year, and Williams notes that the market tends to bottom in mid-to-late October and then leads into a “powerful” rally, Cramer said.

    He then looked at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with the same true seasonal pattern. 

    Arrows pointing outwards

    The Dow also happens to have a double bottom followed by a rally around the same time the S&P 500 does, which means there should be a tremendous buying opportunity, he said.
    For more analysis, watch Cramer’s full explanation below.

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    Spacecraft builder York sells stake to private equity firm AEI at over $1 billion valuation

    Spacecraft manufacturer York Space Systems is selling a majority stake in the company to private equity firm AE Industrial Partners at an enterprise valuation of $1.125 billion, CNBC has learned.
    The deal, announced on Tuesday, makes York the latest space unicorn.
    York manufactures what is known in the industry as a spacecraft “bus,” the main structure and body of a satellite.

    One of the company’s spacecraft in orbit.
    York Space

    Spacecraft manufacturer York Space Systems is selling a majority stake in the company to private equity firm AE Industrial Partners at an enterprise valuation of $1.125 billion, CNBC has learned.
    The deal, announced on Tuesday, makes York the latest space unicorn — a company valued at over $1 billion on the private markets. AEI took a 51% equity stake in York at that valuation, people familiar with the deal told CNBC.

    AEI has made a variety of investments in the space sector over the last two years, taking positions in companies like Sierra Space, Firefly Aerospace, Redwire, Terran Orbital and Virgin Orbit. BlackRock’s private equity arm joined AEI in the York investment.

    Sign up here to receive weekly editions of CNBC’s Investing in Space newsletter.

    AEI declined to comment on the deal, the terms of which were not disclosed. York did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

    The S-CLASS platform, designed for missions for a wide variety of government and commercial customers.
    York Space Systems

    Based in Denver, Colorado, and founded in 2012 by CEO Dirk Wallinger, York has steadily expanded its product line of spacecraft that it builds for customers wanting to operate satellites in orbit. York manufactures what is known in the industry as a spacecraft “bus,” the main structure and body of a satellite, and focuses on low-cost products that range in size from a household oven to a refrigerator.
    York has more than $1 billion backlog of contracts to date — most notably an award to build spacecraft for the Pentagon’s in-development satellite internet system.
    The company maintains multiple facilities with about 165,000 total square feet of manufacturing space, with capacity to produce more than 750 satellites per year.
    In a press release, AEI said that Wallinger will be staying on as CEO while Chair Charles Beames will continue serving on the York board of directors.

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    Defendant in case of $100 million NJ deli hires lawyer who repped 'pharma bro' Martin Shkreli

    Peter Coker Sr., one of the defendants in the case of the so-called $100 million New Jersey deli, hired a lawyer who represented “pharma bro” Martin Shkreli.
    Coker Sr. hired Marc Agnifilo to represent him in his case against the Securities and Exchange Commission, which sued him and two other men, including his son, for alleged market manipulation.
    Agnifilo also has represented disgraced Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein, NXIVM cult leader Keith Raniere and a Russian bank that was sanctioned over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Hometown Deli, Paulsboro, N.J.
    Mike Calia | CNBC

    Peter Coker Sr., one of the defendants in the case of the so-called $100 million New Jersey deli, hired a lawyer who represented “pharma bro” Martin Shkreli, according to a new court filing Tuesday.
    Coker Sr. hired Marc Agnifilo to represent him in his case against the Securities and Exchange Commission, which sued him and two other men, including his son, for alleged market manipulation.

    The Department of Justice also criminally charged the men — Coker Sr., Peter Coker Jr. and James Patten — with multiple counts, including securities fraud, conspiracy and money laundering over an alleged scheme to pump up the value of a small, publicly traded company that had just a small town New Jersey deli to its name.
    The company, Hometown International, reached an eye-popping $100 million valuation last year in an over-the-counter market despite the fact that the deli, the now-closed Your Hometown Deli in Paulsboro, N.J., making less than $40,000 in annual sales.
    Agnifilo, a New York-based former federal prosecutor, did not immediately return a call from CNBC seeking comment. In addition to representing Shkreli, he has worked for convicted sex criminal and former Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein, NXIVM cult leader Keith Raniere and a Russian bank that was sanctioned over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    Shkreli, a former pharmaceuticals executive who was released from prison earlier this year, was convicted of securities fraud in 2017 and was sentenced in 2018.
    Authorities arrested Coker Sr. and Patten last week in North Carolina, and they were conditionally released. Their case is slated to be transferred to a federal court in New Jersey. Prosecutors wanted to keep Coker Sr., 80, detained. Coker Jr. of Hong Kong is considered at large.

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    Jim Cramer says the economy could be cooling enough for the Fed to dial back its inflation battle

    Monday – Friday, 6:00 – 7:00 PM ET

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday said that recent economic data shows the Federal Reserve could start taking a softer approach to inflation.
    “This rampant inflation may not be as malignant as the hawks seem to believe, and that means the Fed might ratchet down the next” interest rate increase, he said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday said that recent economic data shows the Federal Reserve could start taking a softer approach to inflation.
    “This rampant inflation may not be as malignant as the hawks seem to believe, and that means the Fed might ratchet down the next” interest rate increase, he said.

    In September the Fed interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the third consecutive time and indicated it would continue to do whatever it takes to tamp down inflation.
    However, Cramer said that two data points suggest the economy’s cooling:

    The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index in September fell to its lowest level since 2020.
    Job openings tumbled by more than 1.1 million in August, marking the biggest single-day drop since April 2020. 

    Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday following the release of the job openings report, continuing the rally from the prior trading session. The S&P 500 saw its largest two-day rally since March 2020.
    Cramer also credited the U.S. dollar’s declining value for his hope that the Fed could take a less aggressive approach for its next rate hike. 
    The dollar retreated on Tuesday as the 10-year Treasury yield slumped after Australia’s central bank took a smaller-than-expected interest rate increase. The U.S. dollar had surged in recent months, putting pressure on domestic companies that conduct business overseas.

    “Maybe a weakening dollar can help offset the domestic weakness, softening the blow of a potential recession and bolstering the earnings of our exporters,” Cramer said.

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    3 of our stocks, including Ford, are in the news. Here's the Club's take on the headlines

    Three Club holdings — Ford (F), Disney (DIS) and Starbucks (SBUX) — were in the news Tuesday. Here’s our take on the headlines. The news: Ford announced a year-over-year sales decline of 8.9% in September. But with numbers from the final month of the third quarter in, the company’s sales on a quarterly basis rose nearly 16% from last year. Shares of Ford jumped about 7% on the news. Adding a boost, electric vehicle sales in September surged 197.3% annually. Though that EV growth is off a small base, it does bring the vehicle maker’s share to 7% of the electric vehicle market. As called out by CNBC’s Phil LeBeau, the results speak to an improvement in production rates throughout the third quarter. The Club take: We believe the results reflect strong demand for the Ford lineup, even though sales remain suppressed due to supply chain issues. As a result, we reiterated our view on Ford during Tuesday’s “Morning Meeting,” saying despite solid demand, we think there’s no rush to pick up the stock until we get more signs that the inventory issues and supplier costs that slammed shares last month are closer to being resolved. We have a 2 rating on Ford, which means we’d like to see a pullback before buying any more shares. Our last Ford buy was in July 2021. We’ve been reducing our position in 2022 . The news: Analysts at JPMorgan cut their price target on Disney shares Tuesday to $145 from $160 for two reasons. The first one was a downward revision in their Disney Parks, Experiences and Products (DPEP) operating income forecast for fiscal 2023. The second was their expectations for greater losses in Disney’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) efforts for fiscal 2023. Despite the revisions, JPMorgan reiterated their overweight rating, which is equivalent to a buy. Regarding the DPEP change, the JPMorgan analysts reduced their fourth quarter operating income estimate for the segment by $160 million, attributing roughly $100 million of that revision to park closures in Florida as a result of Hurricane Ian. The remainder of the downward revision was attributed to a slew of factors, including a potential slowdown in U.S. attendance, a weakening macroeconomic backdrop in the euro zone, foreign exchange headwinds, and ongoing “Covid/geopolitical issues in Asia.” On the DTC front, the analysts expect losses to decline more slowly than the Street is anticipating due to the impact of increased amortization as content ramps up. However, the analysts do believe that DTC will reach profitability by the end of fiscal year 2024. The Club take : Ultimately, our view on the stock remains unchanged — and if anything, we believe this note serves to support our bullish view at these levels. Even with these revisions, which bring JPMorgan’s estimates a level below the Street consensus, the analysts see a roughly 45% upside in the stock. We rate Disney as a 1, meaning we see it as a buy at current levels. The Club added 25 shares of Disney last Thursday. The news: Bank of America believes that restaurant stock valuations remain “depressed versus historical averages, and not far above recession period lows,” due to input cost inflation pressuring profit margins. However, the analysts noted that as consumer spending slows, input costs should come down. As the macroeconomic backdrop further normalizes, with commodity and labor costs coming off prior peaks, they think the market will start to factor in a return to more normalized profit margins. That in turn, can lead to valuations reverting back to normalized levels. They believe Starbucks is “best positioned” in their coverage universe to benefit in this environment. The Club take: We’re encouraged by BofA’s research. As members know, we liked what we heard during Starbucks’ recent Investor Day event and believe that the combination of lower- commodity and labor cost inflation, along with a gradual reopening in China, are supportive of management’s goal to grow both sales and earnings by double-digit percentage points in coming years. We initiated SBUX in late August , and we’ve been bulking up our position with incremental buys ever since. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long F, DIS and SBUX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

    Ford F-150 Lightning at the 2022 New York Auto Show.
    Scott Mlyn | CNBC

    Three Club holdings — Ford (F), Disney (DIS) and Starbucks (SBUX) — were in the news Tuesday. Here’s our take on the headlines. More

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    Streaming bundles are forming, but don't expect a cable TV-like package any time soon

    There are several obstacles standing in the way of putting all the streaming services into a cable-TV-style bundle.
    While a mega bundle would likely limit the rate subscribers cancel, it would probably also cut down on the amount of revenue companies make per user.
    NBCUniversal executives have held talks about forming a bundle with streamers including HBO Max and Paramount+, but they have been met with resistance, sources say.
    Peacock has also begun early talks with smaller streamers, including BritBox, AMC and Starz, although those talks have so far gone nowhere, sources say.

    The Disney+ website on a laptop computer in the Brooklyn borough of New York, US, on Monday, July 18, 2022.
    Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    A contradiction is developing in the world of streaming media, and it revolves around bundling.
    There’s a consistent drumbeat of expectation that streaming services will eventually all bundle with each other for an overall discount, with the end product looking something like traditional pay TV.

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    Hypothetically, a streaming bundle could include Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+, HBO Max, Discovery+, NBCUniversal’s Peacock, and Paramount+ for, say, $50 a month. Creating a facsimile of a larger, multi-company bundle for streaming services is a concept under consideration by several in the industry, including Peacock owner NBCUniversal, according to people familiar with the matter.
    The traditional pay TV business has been highly profitable for decades for large media companies. Still, almost three years since the launch of Disney+, which marked the unofficial start of the streaming wars, nothing like a cable-like digital streaming package exists — or is even close to formation. Competitive imbalances and unanswered strategic questions have prevented it from developing.
    The bundling that’s taken place so far involves streaming products owned by the same company.

    In those cases, executives can set their own rules and use their own technology. Outside of that, the obstacles of being a pioneer in setting new bundling standards have thus far been prohibitive.
    “I think we’ll eventually see bundling happen,” said Tom Rogers, former president of NBC Cable and currently executive chairman of Engine Media. “The question becomes what catalyzes it to happen.”

    Benefits of bundling

    For consumers that buy many streaming services already, purchasing a bundle of them for a discount would be an instant money saver.
    For corporations, pushing together streaming services reduces the number of people who cancel each month, known in the industry as churn. This is a useful tool for media executives, who want to show sustained streaming growth.
    “Churn is one of the most important metrics here for the sustainability of this model, and I’m confident that we’re going to be able to significantly bring that down,” Warner Bros Discovery CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels said last month about his company’s decision to merge HBO Max and Discovery+.
    Offering a large bundle would also likely lead to better options for helping viewers discover new shows and movies. Figuring out which streaming service has which movie or TV show is still a forehand-slapping nightmare for most users.
    Allowing consumers to stay in one service, rather than forcing them to jump from application to application to find shows, also prevents unwanted friction for executives who want to maximize their customers’ time spent watching video.
    “There’s a little bit of consumer friction there in terms of having to go out of one app and into another,” Disney CEO Bob Chapek said last month, discussing the idea of integrating Hulu, Disney+ and ESPN+ into one user interface. “We like the idea of eliminating friction.”

    Drawbacks of bundling

    One obstacle to bundling is pricing. Tying together services for a discount will likely mean lower average revenue per user, or ARPU, for all the services involved. Companies must decide they’re willing to make the ARPU tradeoff for the chance at adding more subscribers. They also need to determine the right balance between how much a haircut each participant should take, based on the relative popularity of the bundled services.
    Still, the discount can’t be too steep, especially for companies that are still relying on a significant amount of revenue from traditional pay TV. A company such as AMC Networks, mainly known for its eponymous cable-TV network with shows like “The Walking Dead,” derives more than 50% of its total revenue from the linear bundle in the U.S. If AMC Networks were to bundle with another streaming service, new CEO Christina Spade would likely want to be paid the same (or more) as she already gets from pay TV distributors. Otherwise, AMC Networks risks having to lower its price to all of its current distribution partners when its next contract renewal arises.
    “There will probably continue to be competitive jostling that will stand in the way of inter-company bundling versus intra-company bundling,” said Engine Media’s Rogers, who also used to run DVR company TiVo. “Obviously there’s a cost to that because the bundling discount means lower fees.”
    The second hurdle is figuring out who will control the user experience. Every major media company wants to own the direct consumer relationship and the data that comes along with knowing how customers behave. This is especially helpful for advertisers, as Netflix and Disney get set to launch their own ad-supported products.
    There are a number of potential aggregators that could offer a bundle of streaming products. Digital video distributors, such as Roku, Amazon or Apple would be obvious candidates. But those companies also offer their own competing streaming services – The Roku Channel, Prime Video and Apple TV+, respectively – which could deter broader partnerships.
    Perhaps an uninvolved third party that doesn’t sell its own streaming service — Microsoft or Charter or Verizon — could sell a bundled offering. Wireless companies already offer promotional pricing to streaming services as sign-up bonuses. But media companies that now have direct-to-consumer relationships may resist packaging that eliminates instant contact with their customers.

    Angelica Ross, Bresha Webb, Amber Stevens West, and Corbin Reid attend Peacock’s new drama series “Bel-Air” Los Angeles Drive-Into Experience & Pull-up Premiere Screening at Barker Hangar on February 09, 2022 in Santa Monica, California.
    Momodu Mansaray | Getty Images

    If each major streaming service allowed other streamers to be integrated into their user interfaces, several questions would need to be answered. Take a hypothetical Peacock-Paramount+ bundle. Would each company integrate the others’ content into their own application? If so, would a viewer using the Paramount+ application that chose a Peacock show watch in the Peacock interface or the Paramount+ interface?
    Now multiply those questions for every company that joined a bundle.
    “Some form of universal search will be key,” Rogers said of a potential streaming bundle in the future, noting the leading candidates would be smart-TV and connected-TV device manufacturers, as well as cable-TV companies. “That is the hardest thing today for a consumer – video is so balkanized to find what you want and where.”
    The third problem is industry competitive dynamics. Some media executives may view bundling as a sign of weakness — a signal that their company can’t compete on its own. That can best be illustrated by focusing on NBCUniversal’s Peacock.

    The Peacock paradox

    Peacock has 15 million paying subscribers, NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell told CNBC’s David Faber on Tuesday. That puts Peacock behind Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Hulu, HBO Max and Paramount+ in terms of subscribers. It’s also likely behind Apple TV+, though Apple has never announced its actual subscriber number.
    Peacock plans to lose $2.5 billion this year before breaking even in 2024. Bundling with other services would be a straight forward way for Peacock to build a subscriber base.
    NBCUniversal executives have held exploratory talks at various times about forming a bundle with several of the largest streamers, including HBO Max and Paramount+, according to people familiar with the matter who asked to remain anonymous because the discussions are private. An NBCUniversal spokesperson declined to comment.
    Peacock’s inquiries have thus far been met with a “no.” The general sentiment from potential larger partners is bundling would help Peacock more than it would help them. NBCUniversal and Paramount Global have a joint venture streaming service in Europe, which could theoretically provide a blueprint for a similar service in the United States.
    But Paramount Global CEO Bob Bakish has said privately he has no interest in partnering with Peacock in the U.S. because he views a bundle as benefitting Peacock more than it would Paramount+, according to people familiar with the matter. Paramount+ ended its most recent quarter with more than 43 million global subscribers. A Paramount Global spokesperson declined to comment.
    “Streaming has moved to the phase where customer loyalty and ancillary revenue are becoming the focus,” said Jason Anderson, CEO of boutique investment bank Quire. “We are past subscription growth merely for the sake of subscription growth. To have stable subscriber numbers, you need your audience to be loyal to you and your content, not that of a partner.”
    This is a major change in the media landscape from the last 40 years. In the world of traditional pay TV, all programmers were collective winners for every new subscriber. While NBCUniversal may compete against Paramount Global for content and advertising dollars, it doesn’t compete against Paramount Global for subscriber fees. A cable TV customer pays for both NBCUniversal’s cable and broadcast networks and Paramount Global’s every month.
    In the streaming world, each media company is a direct competitor for eyeballs against each other. Aiding the competition may no longer be smart business.

    Seeking smaller targets

    With no clear path to partner with one of the larger streamers, Peacock has also held early talks with smaller streamers, including BritBox, AMC+ and Starz, about forming a bundle, said people familiar with the discussions. Theoretically, Peacock could begin to look more like a mini-streaming distributor, similar to how its parent company, Comcast, aggregates cable networks.
    But these conversations also haven’t had led anywhere yet.

    Richard Rankin and Sophie Skelton attend the Season 6 Premiere of STARZ “Outlander” at The Wolf Theater at the Television Academy on March 09, 2022 in North Hollywood, California.
    David Livingston | Getty Images

    The problem for Peacock is that adding smaller services doesn’t necessarily move the needle for NBCUniversal. Starz, which has shows like Outlander and Power, ended its most recent quarter with 12.2 million U.S. subscribers. AMC+ has 10.8 million subscribers. BritBox, which focuses on BBC and British content, last year said it 2.6 million global subscribers. Just as Peacock suffers from trailing the larger streamers, it isn’t urgently putting together a strategy around niche services that may not impress Wall Street investors. NBCUniversal executives also have faith Peacock can still flourish by itself.
    From the standpoint of niche services, Peacock hasn’t come to them with a coherent strategy, according to several people familiar with the talks.
    It remains unclear whether Peacock would charge a higher price for adding outside content, and if so, how it would split that revenue with other bundle participants. Peacock has broached the idea of simply adding content from other companies to its $4.99 per month (with commercials) and $9.99 per month (no ads) services for a subscriber fee it would pay to partners, but it hasn’t figured out the economics, two of the people said.
    The complexity of bundling is another motivation for media companies to merge with each other under one leadership team rather than figuring out solutions with partners. Starz, which is separating from Lionsgate, could be a candidate to acquire smaller services looking for more scale, CNBC reported in June.

    External bundles

    Instead of streaming services bundling together, it’s thus far been easier to attach to non-video services to gain additional eyeballs. The most recent example of this has been Walmart’s announcement it will include free Paramount+ subscriptions for all Walmart+ subscribers. Walmart also held talks with a number of other streamers before reaching an exclusive deal with Paramount+, including NBCUniversal, Disney and Netflix, according to people familiar with the matter.
    It was important for Paramount to be the exclusive partner with Walmart as it didn’t want to be overshadowed by a larger player, said a person familiar with the matter.
    But this doesn’t solve the larger issue of reducing the annoying toggling between services. It arguably creates more confusion, because Walmart+ is yet another independent monthly subscription for consumers to juggle.
    Disclosure: Comcast’s NBCUniversal is CNBC’s parent company.

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