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    Consumer confidence hits lowest point since April as job worries grow

    Consumers soured on the current economy and their prospects for the future, with worries growing over the ability to find a job, according to a Conference Board survey released Tuesday.
    The board’s Consumer Confidence Index for November slumped to 88.7, a drop of 6.8 points from the prior month for its lowest reading in seven months.

    A hiring sign is displayed in the window of a business in Manhattan on Nov. 27, 2025 in New York City.
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    Consumers soured on the current economy and their prospects for the future, with worries growing over the ability to find a job, according to a Conference Board survey released Tuesday.
    The board’s Consumer Confidence Index for November slumped to 88.7, a drop of 6.8 points from the prior month for its lowest reading since April. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for a reading of 93.2.

    In addition, the expectations index tumbled 8.6 points to 63.2, while the present situation index slipped to 126.9, a decline of 4.3 points.
    “Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now,” said Dana Peterson, the board’s chief economist. “Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”
    A key reading within the report that measures job expectations showed deterioration.
    The share of workers saying that jobs are “plentiful” slid to 6%, down from 28.6% in October and reflective of the “no hire, no fire” current job climate showing in other data points. Another question asking whether jobs were “hard to get” edged lower to 17.9%, a drop of 0.4 percentage point.
    Those results come the same day that payrolls processing firm ADP reported that private companies shed an average 13,500 jobs over the past four weeks. Moreover, the Conference Board survey is consistent with other measures showing weakening sentiment among consumers.

    For instance, the University of Michigan’s sentiment gauge dropped 4.9% in November on a monthly basis and was off 29% from a year ago.
    The weakening numbers have coincided with public statements from several key Federal Reserve officials who believe further interest rate reductions are warranted. Traders are pricing in a high probability that the Fed lowers its key borrowing rate by another quarter percentage point in December.
    In the Conference Board survey, Peterson noted weakness across income and political groups.
    “Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown,” Peterson said. “Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited.”
    Inflation expectations rose, with respondents predicting a 4.8% rate one year from now, well above the Fed’s 2% target and topping the Michigan survey outlook for 4.5%. Respondents also expressed “strongly positive” expectations for the stock market over the next year.
    Economic data has been hampered by the recently ended shutdown. Government agencies responsible for the reports suspended all data collection and releases while the impasse continued, with a trickle of mostly dated reports coming out in recent days. More

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    Risks to ECB’s ‘good place’ are growing more balanced

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    The fracturing of the world economy

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    Core wholesale prices rose less than expected in September; retail sales gain

    The producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for September, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
    However, excluding food and energy, the index rose just 0.1%, below the 0.2% estimate.
    Retail sales increased 0.2% in September, a bit softer than the 0.3% forecast. However, sales excluding autos rose 0.3%, in line with the estimate.

    Core wholesale prices rose less than expected in September, indicating a potential cooling in pipeline inflation pressures, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
    The producer price index, a measure of what producers get for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% on the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

    However, excluding food and energy, the index rose just 0.1%, below the 0.2% estimate. Both core and headline PPI had decreased 0.1% in August. Headline PPI was up 2.7% from a year ago, while core rose 2.6%.
    In an era of tariff-driven cost pressures for imports, goods prices drove the PPI increase, rising 0.9% on the month, while services prices were flat. The jump in goods prices was the biggest since February 2024, according to BLS data.
    Final demand energy prices jumped 3.5% for the month, while food rose 1.1%. Of the energy increase, much of that was tied to an 11.8% surge in gasoline.
    On the services side, transportation and warehousing prices rose 0.8%, while airline passenger fees surged 4%.
    The September PPI release, like most other major official data points, was delayed due to the government shutdown. The BLS may not release October PPI data, as it already has canceled the October consumer price index report. November’s CPI is due out Dec. 18. The PPI release is usually timed around the CPI.

    In other economic news Tuesday, the Census Bureau said retail sales increased 0.2% in September, a bit softer than the 0.3% forecast. However, sales excluding autos rose 0.3%, in line with the estimate.
    Miscellaneous retailers saw a 2.9% increase on the month, while gas stations, owing to the higher prices, increased 2%. Sporting goods, hobby and music stores saw a 2.5% decline while online sales were off 0.7%.
    Sales at eating and drinking establishments, an indicator of discretionary spending, increased a solid 0.7% on the month and were up 6.7% from a year ago.
    Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, increased 4.3% from a year ago, ahead of the 3% CPI rate for the month.
    Correction: September headline PPI was up 2.7% from a year ago. An earlier version misstated the percentage. More

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    Brussels warns Eurozone capitals over rise in spending

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    The ‘homoploutic’ elephant, with Branko Milanović

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    Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports

    Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing.
    With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative data like ADP’s has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture.

    A ‘Now Hiring’ sign sits in the window of a Denny’s restaurant on Nov. 19, 2025 in Miami, Florida.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday.
    Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago.

    With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative data like ADP’s has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture.
    Government agencies such as the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but critical reports such as the monthly nonfarm payrolls count won’t come out until December.
    Policymakers at the Federal Reserve won’t have much of the usual data they use to make forecasts when they meet again Dec. 9-10. However, in recent days, several officials have advocated for additional interest rate cuts, causing the market to recalibrate expectations to now expecting a reduction at next month’s meeting.
    “With the next jobs report now scheduled for December 16 and CPI for December 18, there is little on the calendar to derail a cut on December 10,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a client note Sunday.
    When the releases do start rolling out, Hatzius said he expects that “alternative indicators show renewed job losses in October” even though the BLS last week reported better-than-expected 119,000 growth in payrolls for September.
    The Goldman team expects the Fed to react with a cut in December and two more quarter percentage points reductions in 2026. More

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    Dissent is rising at the Fed

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