Economy

The UK economic outlook for this year has improved, with analysts predicting a smaller contraction in output than previously because of falling energy prices and better than anticipated business and consumer sentiment.In December and January, economists expected gross domestic product to drop by 1 per cent this year, according to data from Consensus Economics, which polls leading forecasters.However, the data for the week of February 20 shows that economists are upgrading their forecasts. The average forecast involves a 0.6 per cent fall in GDP in 2023.The UK recorded better economic news last week. The latest S&P Global/Cips flash composite purchasing managers’ index showed British business activity rebounded in February after six months of declining output.Consumer confidence in February reached its highest level in almost a year, according to research group GfK. And official data about the public finances showed chancellor Jeremy Hunt was on course to net a windfall of £30bn after the UK recorded a surprise surplus in January.While the cost of living crisis is far from over, and the Bank of England could raise interest rates further to curb inflation, there has been a sharp fall in wholesale energy prices, which soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year.The UK wholesale gas price is now below £1.30 a therm, half the price of mid-December and down from a peak of £5.95 last August.Liz Martins, economist at HSBC, said that given the better economic news and falling energy prices “it is now plausible that there is no recession at all”. “That would be a remarkable result given the scale of the energy shock and monetary tightening that we have had,” she added.Allan Monks, economist at JPMorgan, estimates the economy will expand by 0.4 per cent this year, partly owing to lower energy prices.Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, said “the fall in energy prices is the sunshine on a cloudy day” for the economy because it eased pressure on businesses and households.Lower wholesale gas prices mean the government’s cap on household energy bills has become less expensive for ministers.It has fuelled expectations that chancellor Jeremy Hunt may not proceed with plans to raise the cap from its current annual level of £2,500 to £3,000 in April.Susannah Streeter, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the fall in gas prices should for business “mean an easing off of punishing input prices, which should enable them to limit hikes passed on to customers”.More than three quarters of business leaders are confident about their companies’ prospects in 2023, according to a new survey published by the Boston Consulting Group. Some analysts, including Citigroup, expect inflation to return to the BoE target of 2 per cent in the second half of 2023. The central bank anticipates inflation of 4 per cent in the fourth quarter.Monks predicts the unemployment rate to stabilise at about 3.7 per cent, instead of rising as previously expected. This “would mean there is scope for aggregate household real incomes to do better this year”, he said.Victoria Clarke, economist at Santander CIB, expects “a return to positive real pay growth in the second half of the year, which should support household spending and economic momentum”.However, the economy still has plenty of headwinds, not least because higher interest rates have yet to impact fully on consumers and businesses.Streeter said demand in the economy could evaporate as more homeowners and businesses face up to sharply higher borrowing costs.“So, a milder recession still can’t be ruled out and at the very least we’ll be heading for an early noughties period of stagnation,’’ she added. Additional reporting by Daniel Thomas More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.A wave of selling is likely to crash over Asian markets on Monday following a sobering end to the week on Wall Street, as the reality of ‘higher for longer’ U.S. interest rates finally dawns on investors. Consumer spending, labor market and business activity data suggest the U.S. economy is in much better shape than many had thought, and the coup de grace last week came in the form of unexpectedly strong inflation figures. The implied peak Fed rate is approaching 5.50% – does anyone still think 6% is the stuff of fantasy? – U.S. and other bond yields are surging, and equities are feeling the heat.The MSCI World index fell 2.7% last week, its biggest weekly fall since September, while Asian stocks ex-Japan fell almost as much for a fourth straight weekly loss and the steepest since October.Tech stocks are in the firing line more than most. The Hang Seng tech index is down 17% in the past month, hit by higher rates and tighter financial conditions as well as profit-taking following an explosive 77% rebound from the low in October.One consequence of the market’s Fed rethink is the sharp rise in bond yields and the dollar. Many Asian currencies are being pushed back toward their recent lows, boosting inflationary pressures across the region and making dollar-denominated debt servicing more expensive. China’s yuan has 7.00/$ in its sights again, the yen and won are at their lowest this year – domestic Japanese and South Korean monetary policy factors are at play here too – and the Indian rupee is near its all-time low around 83.00 per dollar.Investors’ nerves are being frayed even more by the deepening tensions between the United States and China over, among other things, the Russia-Ukraine war. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that China has not moved toward providing lethal aid that would help Russia, a decision that Washington has warned would have serious consequences.Asian economic data this week include purchasing managers index reports from China and other countries, Q4 GDP data from Australia and India, inflation figures from Australia, Indonesia and the Japanese capital, and the latest retail sales snapshots from Japan, Australia, Singapore and New Zealand.Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- Hong Kong trade (January)- Thailand trade (January)- New Zealand retail sales (Q4) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Diane Craft) More

(Reuters) – Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has pledged $3.25 million to help buy more than a dozen ambulances for Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia’s invasion, according to a fellow investor who cited a conversation with him. Ackman’s donation will cover the purchase of 15 specially equipped Toyota 4×4 Land Cruiser ambulances and the costs of operating them on the front lines, investor Whitney Tilson, who is on the advisory board of Ackman’s charity, Pershing Square Foundation, wrote in an email to his friends and professional contacts. The email was reviewed by Reuters.”I had breakfast with my college buddy Bill Ackman this morning, walked him through the attached slide deck I put together about my ambulances-for-Ukraine mission, and on the spot he agreed to donate $3.25 million,” Tilson wrote in the email, dated Feb. 25.Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management oversees roughly $16 billion in assets. A spokesperson for Ackman could not be reached for comment. Tilson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Tilson has been leading an effort to buy ambulances for Ukraine that will be operated by humanitarian aid group MOAS (Migrant Offshore Aid Station), which is based in Malta. The Land Cruisers cost roughly $116,000 each and come with an extended roof that let medical personnel stand up as they treat patients.Ackman, whose great-grandfather emigrated to the United States from Ukraine, has an estimated net worth of $3.5 billion, according to Forbes. Ackman and his wife, Neri Oxman, have pledged to give away the majority of their fortune and have supported causes ranging from medical research to relief to earthquake-stricken Haiti to Harvard University’s crew team. More

During the height of the pandemic, hungry and housebound customers clamored for Home Run Inn Pizza’s frozen thin-crust pies. The company did everything to oblige.It kept its machines chugging during lunch breaks and brought on temporary workers to ensure it could produce pizzas at the suddenly breakneck pace.More recently, demand has eased, and Home Run Inn Pizza, based in suburban Chicago, has reversed some of those measures. But it does not plan to lay off any full-time manufacturing employees — even if that means having a few more workers than it needs during its second shift.“We have really good people,” said Nick Perrino, the chief operating officer and a great-grandson of the company’s founder. “And we don’t want to let any of our team members go.”Despite a year of aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve aimed at taming inflation, and signs that the red-hot labor market is cooling off, most companies have not taken the step of cutting jobs. Outside of some high-profile companies mostly in the tech sector, such as Google’s parent Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft, layoffs in the economy as a whole remain remarkably, even historically, rare.There were fewer layoffs in December than in any month during the two decades before the pandemic, government data show. Filings for unemployment insurance have barely increased. And the unemployment rate, at 3.4 percent, is the lowest since 1969.Layoffs Are Uncommonly Low More

The record-breaking global bond market rally since the start of this year has fizzled out as mounting signs of persistent inflation force investors to reverse their views on the likely future path of interest rate rises.Investors rushed into fixed income in the first few weeks of 2023 as they became increasingly expectant that the US Federal Reserve and other big central banks would soon end their aggressive campaign of monetary policy tightening.A Bloomberg index tracking high-grade government and corporate bonds rose as much as 4 per cent last month, its best ever start to the year.But that gain has now disappeared after a scorching US labour market report earlier this month kicked off a run of better than expected economic data on both sides of the Atlantic, ending expectations that the Fed and the European Central Bank were close to winning their battle with inflation.The resulting rise in bond yields has also upset a rally in the stock market, with the S&P 500 losing 2.7 per cent in the past week.“We’ve had a reality check,” said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street, adding that the easing of monetary policy expected by markets a few weeks ago “looked a little fanciful”.Five more stories in the news1. US wary of Chinese drone shipments to support Russia in Ukraine Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House foreign affairs committee, said the US is increasingly concerned that Beijing is considering sending 100 drones and other lethal weapons to Russia, ahead of an expected meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping next week. 2. China Renaissance’s missing founder Bao Fan ‘co-operating’ in government probe In a terse stock exchange filing late on Sunday in Hong Kong, the company said its board had “become aware that Mr Bao is currently co-operating in an investigation being carried out by certain authorities in the People’s Republic of China”, more than a week after the investment bank disclosed it had been unable to contact him.3. Shanghai’s return to business tests China reopening After three years of Covid restrictions that hampered travel and trade, the financial hub is reopening without much evidence of what made it China’s most cosmopolitan city: foreign visitors. The revival will be a test of the country’s engagement with the outside world, as policymakers embark on a reopening years later than western counterparts. 4. Adani stock market losses hit $145bn one month after short seller attack The sell-off triggered by Hindenburg Research, which accused Adani of stock manipulation and accounting fraud, has erased more than 60 per cent from the value of Adani’s publicly traded companies and rocked an empire that spans ports to airports to energy.5. Trafigura offered $15mn from alleged nickel fraudster using Mauritian bank The world’s largest private metals trader secured a $625mn freezing order against Indian business tycoon Prateek Gupta and his business empire after accusing him of “systematic fraud”. It is one of London’s biggest ever commodities lawsuits. The day aheadCrimea Today is the ninth anniversary of the pro-Russian uprising in Crimea that led to the annexation of the peninsula. The 47-member UN Human Rights Council will use the anniversary as the basis for discussions in Geneva on human rights crises around the globe.Related read: On February 22 1946, George Kennan, a US diplomat in Moscow, sent a 5,000-word telegram to secretary of state James Byrnes. Seventy-seven years on, it offers lessons on living with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Economic data February eurozone consumer confidence data for the EU will be released today.Space mission Nasa’s SpaceX Crew-6 mission to the International Space Station is due to launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida this afternoon. You can follow events live on the agency’s website.What else we’re reading China’s economy and a new wave of Japanification New research by Citigroup suggests that China today looks “strikingly similar” to post property bubble era Japan. The risks investors should heed are those in the banking system, writes Leo Lewis.

© Maria Hergueta

How much is Manchester United really worth? The club’s owners, the wealthy Glazer family, have put it up for sale with a reported target price of $6bn-$7bn including debt that would shatter records for any sports club. But the FT’s calculations suggest it is worth around $1.6bn. Anime and ‘The Last of Us’ are transforming Sony For long-term Sony watchers, the television series The Last of Us symbolises the culmination of a decade-long metamorphosis at the company. The transformation, which one analyst described as “remarkable”, has steadily converted Japan’s best-known consumer electronics brand into a less well-understood blend of specialist-hardware maker and international media giant.Lockdowns are over. WFH isn’t. Why? Nearly three years after Italy introduced the first nationwide lockdown of the pandemic, much of the world remains in the grip of what economists Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis have called “Long Social Distancing”. The shift has several elements behind it, writes Tim Harford. Metaverse creator Neal Stephenson on the future of virtual reality The writer who invented the metaverse concept sat down with FT’s global technology correspondent Tim Bradshaw to discuss why he decided to get involved in building it — and the trouble with AI. Read their conversation here.Take a break from the newsStumped on what to watch next? Here are six films to watch this week.

Alina Khan and Ali Junejo in ‘Joyland’ More

Hello and welcome to the working week.If you are reading this in the northern hemisphere — and subscribe to meteorological definition of the seasons — the good news is that we are rapidly heading into spring. And like the promise of warmer and longer days (not to mention daffodils for St David’s Day on Wednesday), there is some reason for cheer amid the news diary gloom.But first, the really depressing one. Few need reminding about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but it is worth noting — and no doubt will be by other media outlets — that Monday is the ninth anniversary of the pro-Russian uprising in Crimea that led to the annexation of the peninsula. If you want some idea of a way forward, I’d recommend the Weekend essay on what the Cold War taught us about containing Russia. Also on Monday, British households will get some clarity (and perhaps good news) on where their fuel bills are heading when Ofgem updates its energy price cap for the coming quarter. The average annual UK domestic charge had been expected to rise £500 to £3,000 (lower than Ofgem’s headline figure, thanks to the government’s Energy Price Guarantee), and confidence is growing that this upper limit will be frozen after heavy lobbying from campaigners.The outlook is mixed for that other rolling UK story: the surge in strikes. A surprise drop in public sector borrowing has brought hope of a resolution to many of the pay disputes, but the situation remains complicated. Some action due to take place this week has been postponed to enable negotiations on settlements, while others (such as the TSSA rail union) have approved offers. But we start on Monday with yet more walk outs and a threat of new disputes springing up as the deadline for ballots among NHS consultants and rail workers conclude on Monday and Tuesday respectively.So what about some unashamed good news? Well, for astronauts the only way is up. Nasa’s SpaceX Crew-6 mission to the International Space Station is due to launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida early on Monday morning local time. You can follow events live on the agency’s website.Thank you for all those who got in touch during my break last week — GCSE mocks have started at our children’s school, and we’ve even had some (positive) results back. Get in touch with any comments you have about this or other items in this note by emailing me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this on email yourself, hitting reply.CompaniesOne season drawing to a close is the earnings one. One to watch will be Salesforce on Wednesday as the activist investors circle. The core problem has been a lack of attention to profit margins at the expense of growth — Wall Street has complained about this for years, but the software company’s growth was always enough to fend off the naysayers. Unfortunately for co-founder and chief executive Marc Benioff, growth has taken a dip (see the chart below) leaving him exposed — and the job cuts, while significant, so far don’t go far enough.

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The full-year results from Serco were supposed to come last Thursday, but a request by auditors KPMG for more time means they will now be out on Tuesday. Investors and analysts will be listening carefully to recently appointed chief executive Mark Irwin in case he heralds a change in direction for the outsourcer. Rival Capita, which reports two days later, has been disposing its non-core businesses to raise cash, so watch out for an update on this.This week also sees the annual gathering of mobile telecoms industry executives and tech enthusiasts in Barcelona for the MWC trade show, offering a chance for chief executives to comment on the future direction of the wireless networked world and companies to launch new digital toys.Economic dataIt’s a quieter week for economic data reports with inflation and GDP updates the most common items. Another set of purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports, this time for manufacturing, will add to the international comparisons of economic performance, although less use for observers of the UK’s performance than last week’s services PMI data.The minutes of the last European Central Bank Governing Council monetary policy committee meeting and the US and eurozone consumer confidence figures could help provide some indication of future interest rate movements on either side of the Atlantic.Key economic and company reportsHere is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.MondayEU, February eurozone consumer confidence dataRussia, central bank publishes report on inflation expectationsSpain, mobile telecoms industry trade show MWC begins in BarcelonaUK, Competition Appeal Tribunal holds a case management conference for Dr Rachael Kent vs Apple in a case alleging the US-based computer company abused its dominant position by charging a 30 per cent commission on app sales via its devices. UK, judicial review begins to assess Octopus Energy’s acquisition of collapsed energy supplier Bulb after rivals British Gas, E. ON and Scottish Power challenged the takeover at London’s High Court. The three rival suppliers say the British government’s funding for the takeover amounts to an unlawful subsidy.Results: Associated British Foods trading update, Bunzl FY, DX (Group) H1, Heidrick & Struggles Q4, Lending Tree Q4, Viatris Q4, Zoom Q4TuesdayCanada, Q4 GDP figuresFrance, February flash Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate dataFrance, final Q4 GDP figuresIndia, Q4 GDP figuresJapan, January industrial production data (AM local time)Stephanie Linnartz joins Under Armour as the sports clothing brand’s new president and chief executiveUK, secondary school performance data in EnglandUS, February Conference Board consumer confidence surveyResults: abrdn FY, Adecco Q4, Alcon Q4, AMC Entertainment Holdings Q4, Bayer FY, Duolingo Q4, Ferrovial FY, HP Q1, Jones Lang LaSalle Q4, Man Group FY, Moncler FY, Ocado FY, St James’s Place FY, Schrodinger Q4, Serco FY, Target Q4, Travis Perkins FY, Unite Group FY, Universal Health Services Q4WednesdayCanada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, US, UK: S&P Global/Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dataGermany, February flash HICP inflation rate dataGermany, February unemployment rate figuresUK, Nationwide house price indexResults: Abercrombie & Fitch FY, Atos FY, Juventus H1, Kohl’s Q4, Kuehne+Nagel FY, Liberty Media Q4, Lowe’s Q4, Persimmon FY, Petrobras Q4, Reckitt Benckiser FY, Royal Bank of Canada Q1, Salesforce Q4, Weir Group FYThursdayEU, January unemployment figuresEU, February flash HICP inflation rate dataEuropean Central Bank publishes monetary policy committee minutesInternational Energy Agency publishes its latest Global Energy ReviewUS, Q4 labour productivity statisticsResults: Anheuser-Busch InBev Q4, Beazley FY, Best Buy Q4, Broadcom Q1, Capita FY, Costco Q2, CRH FY, Flutter Entertainment FY, Funding Circle FY, ITV FY, Kroger Q4, London Stock Exchange FY, Macy’s Q4, Melrose FY, Merck FY, Metro Bank FY, National Express FY, Nordstrom Q4, Salvatore Ferragamo FY, Schroders FY, Six Flags Entertainment Q4, Taylor Wimpey FY, Universal Music Group Q4, Veolia Environnement FYFridayChina, India, Japan: S&P Global composite (manufacturing and services) PMI data France, January industrial production figuresJapan, January jobless rate (AM local time)US, Federal Reserve Monetary Policy ReportResults: Pearson FY, Rightmove FY, Victoria’s Secret Q4World eventsFinally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week. MondayEU energy ministers meet in Stockholm as part of the Swedish presidency of the European CouncilUkraine, ninth anniversary of pro-Russian activists seizing Crimean government buildings in a move that would lead to the peninsular’s annexation by Russia. The 47-member UN Human Rights Council will use the anniversary as a hook for discussions in Geneva on human rights crises around the globe.UK, energy regulator Ofgem will update its energy price cap for the three months starting April 1. UK, British Medical Association strike ballot closes for NHS consultants to decide whether they will stage industrial action over pay levels. Separately, PCS Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) staff will strike as part of a national campaign over pay, pensions, job security and redundancy terms, but the University and College Union as well as the Royal College of Nursing have suspended strikes due for this week for negotiations on a pay deal.US, Nasa’s SpaceX Crew-6 mission launches, bound for the International Space StationTuesdayCyprus, Green Monday public holidayTaiwan, Peace Memorial day bridge public holidayEU, Bank of England monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the EIB Annual Forum and Chief Economists Meeting in LuxembourgUK, Over 350 GMB union members at Amazon’s West Midland fulfilment centre in Coventry hold a one-day strike, while National Education Union (NEU) members at schools in the north of England (followed by the rest of the nation and Wales in the following two days) and teachers in Scotland strike over pay.WednesdayFirst day of meteorological spring in the northern hemisphereSt David’s Day, commemorating the patron saint of WalesBosnia and Herzegovina, Independence Day public holidayUK, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speech at the Cost of Living Crisis Conference in LondonThursdayUK, Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks on ‘2023 economic outlook — a year of growth or survival?’ at the Wales Week in London eventUK, former British prime minister Boris Johnson speaks at the Global Soft Power Summit in London alongside Ukraine’s current foreign minister Dmytro KulebaUS, Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before virtual Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America eventFridayAustralia, the Avalon international air show begins in Geelong, VictoriaUS, German chancellor Olaf Scholz meets US president Joe Biden in his first state visit to the White HouseSaturdayChina, delegates gather in Beijing for the annual meeting of the country’s senior political advisory body Chinese People’s Political Consultative ConferenceSundayEstonia, parliamentary electionsRussia, 70th anniversary of the death of Soviet leader Joseph StalinUK, annual ticket price increases for London’s public transport will see fares rising by an average of 5.9 per cent More

A senior Republican legislator said that China was considering sending 100 drones and other lethal weapons to Russia, as US officials warn that Beijing may escalate its support for Moscow in the Ukraine conflict.Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House foreign affairs committee, said the US was increasingly concerned about Beijing’s willingness to escalate its backing for Moscow in its year-long invasion of Ukraine, ahead of an expected meeting between Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping next week.The news that a Chinese company was in talks to supply Russia with drones was first reported by Der Spiegel. “We have intelligence that’s been reported that they are contemplating sending 100 drones into Russia. We also know they’re buying all their energy from them, economically supporting them,” McCaul said in an interview with the news network ABC. McCaul said Beijing was also looking at sending in “other lethal weapons”.“The fact that they’re going to meet next week, Chairman Xi and Putin, to discuss this unholy alliance that they have, to put weapons into Ukraine, to me is very disturbing because while maybe Ukraine today, it’s going to be Taiwan tomorrow.” While the US previously believed that China was reluctant to provide lethal assistance to Russia in its fight with Ukraine, that assessment has changed this month following new information, CIA director William Burns said.In response, US officials have stepped up their public warnings to China about the potential consequences of such a move — a message they have also conveyed to Chinese counterparts in back-channel meetings, according to multiple US officials.While the US has alleged that Beijing is providing non-lethal assistance to Russia in the conflict, such as satellite imagery to help target Ukrainian weapons, the addition of drones would mark a serious escalation of China’s involvement in the war. Senior US officials this week repeatedly sounded the alarm about the possibility that China could provide Russia with weapons, which secretary of state Antony Blinken last weekend said could include ammunition. But the administration has not shown any evidence to back the claim despite Blinken saying it would be “out there soon”. President Joe Biden on Friday appeared to undercut the claims from his top officials by saying that he did not expect China to make any significant move on weapons.

On Sunday, Burns said in an interview with CBS that the US was “confident” that the Chinese leadership had been considering “the provision of lethal equipment”. But he said that Beijing had not made a final decision and that there had been no evidence, thus far, of “actual shipments of lethal equipment”.Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, has sought to temper the concerns. In multiple interviews on Sunday, he noted that China had made no shipments to Russia. Sullivan said the US would continue to utilise “the private high-level diplomatic channels” it had established to warn Beijing of the consequences of providing Moscow with any lethal aid, as it had during Blinken’s meeting in Munich last week with Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat.“We will watch carefully, we will be vigilant, and we will continue to send a strong message,” Sullivan told CNN. “We’ve certainly made very clear the seriousness of the consequences for our relationship, and I think for China’s relationship with our European allies as well.”Sullivan added: “Beijing will have to make its own decisions about how it proceeds, whether it provides military assistance. But, if it goes down that road, it will come at real costs to China.”Additional reporting by Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington More

Will eurozone core inflation remain stubbornly high?Economists expect headline eurozone inflation to drop to close to a year low in February, but the core reading, which excludes volatile items like fuel, food and tobacco, is set to remain stickier.The preliminary data released on Thursday will, according to a Reuters poll, show eurozone annual consumer price growth slowing to 8.1 per cent this month, down from 8.6 per cent in January. This would be well below the October peak of 10.6 per cent and the lowest since April 2022.However, the decline is likely to be driven by lower energy price rises. Core inflation is set to remain at 5.3 per cent, the highest on record. Economists forecast the trend to continue throughout 2023.Iaroslav Shelepko, economist at Barclays, said eurozone headline inflation this year would show a “sharp deceleration driven by further energy disinflation and its spillovers into food and non-energy goods inflation, as well as very negative base effects”. But he warned that the easing in core inflation “is likely to be even more gradual as underlying strong momentum takes time to unwind”.Stubborn underlying price pressures will continue to support the case for the European Central Bank to raise rates. Markets have priced in a half percentage point increase at the ECB meeting on March 16. That would take the deposit rate to 3 per cent. It was minus 0.5 per cent only last July.On Thursday, the ECB will also publish its account of the February monetary policy meeting, which concluded with a half percentage point increase. Investors will monitor it to gauge more details on the planned path for rates beyond March. Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, noted that the minutes come just hours after the February flash inflation print for the eurozone: “an off-consensus print could steal the limelight in markets from the backward-looking account”, she said. Valentina RomeiWhat will corporate earnings tell us about the health of the US economy? US companies will continue to report fourth-quarter earnings next week, with a swath of results from retailers featuring prominently. These ought to give investors some insight into the health of the US consumer and broader economy. Retail giants Costco and Target, home improvement store Lowe’s and budget-friendly Dollar Tree are among those reporting, alongside big names like oil company Occidental Petroleum and tech business Salesforce. Although the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hiking has hit earnings in some sectors, retail results have so far been mixed as the US consumer remains bullish. The largest retailer in the US, Walmart, this week reported strong fourth-quarter earnings but issued a cautious outlook for the second half of the year, when it expects sales to fall. Earlier this month, the US reported that retail sales had risen dramatically in January, one of several pieces of stronger-than-expected data from last month which prompted investors to bet that the Fed will be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer. Retail sales, which include spending on food and petrol, rose 3 per cent in January over December, one of the biggest monthly increases in the past 20 years. Bloomberg analysts are forecasting declines in earnings per share and sales at Target compared with strong spending in the same period a year ago; a rise in earnings and revenue at Costco; modest sales growth at Lowe’s, albeit alongside a challenging outlook for the remainder of the year; and higher sales at Dollar Tree, driven by spending on food. Kate DuguidHow will China’s PMIs move markets?China’s purchasing managers’ indices will take centre stage next week as investors keep a close eye on the state of the world’s second-largest economy and Beijing’s attempts to put the long hangover of zero-Covid behind it.Both official and independent manufacturing PMIs for February will be released on Wednesday. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the former — which concentrates on large, state-owned enterprises — to come in at 50.7, inching further above the 50-point line separating an expansion in activity from contraction.The independent Caixin manufacturing PMI, meanwhile, provides coverage of the midsized private companies that make up the majority of the sector and is tipped to exit contraction with a reading of 51.3 in February. If those forecasts come good, they would paint a positive portrait of factory activity that could push Chinese markets higher. The non-manufacturing PMI covering services sector activity is also expected to climb to 55, up from 54.4 in January.Analysts at ANZ have forecast a reading of 50.5 for the official gauge “thanks to the reopening as well as post-holiday surge in production” following the long lunar new year holiday. They also noted a rebound in Chinese metro passengers to levels close to the second half of 2021, which “bodes well for a recovery in the services sector”. Hudson Lockett More