Finance

Take a look at some of the biggest movers in the premarket:
Spirit Airlines (SAVE) – Spirit jumped 6.1% in the premarket after JetBlue (JBLU) sweetened its bid for Spirit. JetBlue will increase its breakup fee for the deal to $350 million and pay part of that as a dividend if the deal is consummated, increasing the value to $31.50 per share. JetBlue shares were unchanged.

Didi Global (DIDI) – Didi shares skyrocketed in the premarket after The Wall Street Journal reported that China regulators have concluded a year-long probe and it is set to lift an order banning the company from adding new users.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) – The beverage maker’s stock will be added to the S&P 500 index prior to the opening of trading on June 21, along with ON Semiconductor (ON) and real estate investment trust VICI Properties (VICI). Keurig rallied 7.9% in premarket action, with ON Semiconductor surging 7.2% and VICI jumping 8.4%.
Eli Lilly (LLY) – The drugmaker’s stock rose 1.2% in premarket trading, after announcing successful results in studies involving diabetes drugs Trulicity and Jardiance.
Under Armour (UAA) – Under Armour stock is among those being replaced in the S&P 500 on June 21. Under Armour will move to the S&P MidCap 400, along with laser maker IPG Photonics (IPGP). Under Armour lost 1.2% in the premarket.
Revlon (REV) – Revlon is in talks with lenders on pushing back debt payment deadlines as the cosmetics maker tries to avoid a bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. The talks involve extending the maturity date on about $1.7 billion in debt that comes due as early as 2024. Revlon added 1.6% in premarket trading.

Starbucks (SBUX) – Starbucks is considering only external candidates to be its next CEO, according to interim Chief Executive Officer Howard Schultz. He told The Wall Street Journal that the company needs to add new talent to its executive ranks. Starbucks was up 1.8% in the premarket.
Apple (AAPL) – Apple shares are on watch as the company’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference begins. Apple stock has lost 16.9% so far this year amid concerns about a slowdown in demand. Apple gained 1.4% in premarket trading.
Solar companies – Shares of solar equipment providers rose in premarket trading, following a Reuters report saying the White House would declare a 24-month exemption from solar panel tariffs as well as other moves to spur U.S. solar panel production. SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) added 4.3%, Sunrun (RUN) jumped 11.1%, First Solar (FSLR) gained 2.3%, JinkoSolar (JKS) rallied 5.9% and SunPower (SPWR) rallied 7.2%.

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After a surge of omicron cases across the country since March, the nationwide daily Covid case count has fallen to well below 50, according to official data.
“Our high-frequency trackers suggest that barring another severe Covid resurgence and related lockdowns, mobility, construction and ports operation could recover to pre-lockdown levels in around one month,” Goldman Sachs China Economist Lisheng Wang and a team said in a report Saturday.
In a significant step toward normality, the capital city of Beijing allowed most restaurants to resume in-store dining Monday, after a hiatus of about a month.

A handful of tourists visit the normally packed Yuyuan Garden during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday on June 4, 2022, in Shanghai, where authorities are allowing a return to normal life and business activity.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — China is starting to show signs of recovery from the latest Covid shock.
In a significant step toward normality, the capital city of Beijing allowed restaurants in most districts to resume in-store dining on Monday — after a hiatus of about a month. Most other businesses could also restore in-person operations.

The southeastern metropolis of Shanghai, which was locked down for about two months, pressed on with a reopening plan that kicked off last week. Residents flocked to camping sites and local parks over the long weekend holiday that began Friday, according to travel booking site Trip.com.
As people returned to work on Monday, a traffic congestion tracker from Baidu showed heavy traffic in Beijing and Shanghai during the morning commute — versus light traffic a week earlier. Both cities also relaxed the frequency of virus tests to three days from two.
After a surge of omicron cases across the country since March, the nationwide daily Covid case count has fallen to well below 50, according to official data.

The unsynchronized lockdowns and reopenings across major cities suggest that China’s ongoing post-lockdown growth recovery should be less steep than the V-shaped one in spring 2020.

Goldman Sachs

Under China’s “dynamic zero-Covid policy” mandate, local authorities have used strict travel bans and stay-home orders to control the virus. Those restrictions disrupted supply chains and other business, sending retail sales and industrial production falling in April.
“Our high-frequency trackers suggest that barring another severe Covid resurgence and related lockdowns, mobility, construction and ports operation could recover to pre-lockdown levels in around one month,” Goldman Sachs China Economist Lisheng Wang and a team said in a report Saturday.

However, businesses in the service sector that involve close human contact would find it challenging to “achieve a full recovery any time soon,” the report said. “The unsynchronized lockdowns and reopenings across major cities suggest that China’s ongoing post-lockdown growth recovery should be less steep than the V-shaped one in spring 2020.”

Goldman’s analysts pointed to the absence of growth drivers such as exports and real estate, and greater economic costs for controlling a Covid variant more transmissible than the one in 2020.
Real estate accounts for more than a quarter of China’s GDP, according to Moody’s.
During a press conference last week, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng gave little sign of additional large-scale support for the sector. He noted how the pandemic restricted real estate construction and sales. But he emphasized Beijing’s policy of limiting speculation in the sector, and described authorities’ latest moves to relax some curbs on real estate loans.

Sluggish recovery

Data from last weekend’s holiday, called the Dragon Boat Festival, added to indications that the economy won’t be snapping back to growth anytime soon.
The long weekend movie box office of 178 million yuan ($26.75 million) was the worst Dragon Boat Festival performance since 2012, excluding the worst of the pandemic in 2020, according to ticketing site Maoyan.
Spending on domestic tourism during the holiday this year dropped 12.2% from last year, to 25.82 billion yuan ($3.88 billion), according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
But for the calendar year, it marked an improvement from May. The nearly $4 billion figure was about two-thirds the spending during the same holiday in 2019. That was better than the recovery to 44% of pre-pandemic levels during a longer holiday in early May, while Shanghai was still locked down.
In the last week, business survey data for manufacturing and services in May showed recovery from April lows. But the data, known as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), remained in contraction territory.
The contraction rate is similar to that between February and March, said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance. He said that since April’s economic indicators declined, the latest figures show the pandemic’s impact remained in May and the economy remains in its most severe situation since the second quarter of 2020.

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The PMI data showed continued declines in business plans for hiring.
Pang noted that uncertainty about future income, as well as quarantine risk for travelers, weighed on tourism spending during the latest Dragon Boat Festival.
Even if much of Beijing and Shanghai are not officially locked down, specific apartment buildings or neighborhoods can remain closed off due to contact with Covid cases.
Not all businesses have resumed work either. Shanghai Disney Resort has been closed since March 21. Universal Beijing Resort has been shut since May 1 until further notice.
Disclosure: NBCUniversal is the parent company of Universal Studios and CNBC.

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Traders on the floor of the NYSE, June 3, 2022.
Source: NYSE

Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Sunday after a losing week as investors continued to bet that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy aggressively to combat surging inflation.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 30 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both flat.

The overnight action followed another disappointing week for investors as the major averages suffered modest losses. The blue-chip Dow fell 0.9% for its ninth negative week in 10, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% and 1%, respectively, last week for their eighth losing week in nine.
Investors have been grappling with fears that the central bank could raise interest rates too fast and too much, causing a recession. Recent statements from the rate-setting Fed members indicate that 50 basis point — or a half-percentage-point — rate increases are likely at the June and July meetings.
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, which came in better than expected despite fears of an economic slowdown and amid the roaring pace of inflation. Some investors believe the strong hiring data could be clearing the way for the Fed to remain aggressive.
“For now, the market sees a Federal Reserve trying to navigate a painful and bumpy road, yet trying to find a soft exit,” said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. “And the market finds itself between wanting to believe in the rallies but not believing that the Fed can negotiate a soft landing.”
Investors will be focused on the consumer price index reading for May, which is slated for Friday morning release. The key inflation gauge is expected to be just slightly cooler than April, which could be interpreted by some as a confirmation that inflation has peaked.

The stock market has had a volatile year with the major averages pulling back double digits from their record highs. The S&P 500 is off by 14.7% from its all-time high reached in January. The equity benchmark briefly dipped into bear market territory last month.
“The second half of 2022 is going to be a roller coaster ride for investors unless the Fed is able to bring inflation under control without a hard landing,” said Peter Essele, head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network. “Most investors seem to be wagering on a crash-and-burn scenario at this point as recessionary fears abound, and equity markets fail to develop any sort of positive momentum.”

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Global markets are in the beginning of a fundamental shift after a 15-year period defined by low interest rates and cheap corporate debt, according to Morgan Stanley co-President Ted Pick.
The transition from the economic conditions that followed the 2008 financial crisis and whatever comes next will take “12, 18, 24 months” to unfold, he said last week at a New York financial conference.
Out of the ashes of this transition period, a new business cycle will emerge, Pick said.

Trader on the floor of the NYSE, June 1, 2022.
Source: NYSE

Global markets are in the beginning of a fundamental shift after a nearly 15-year period defined by low interest rates and cheap corporate debt, according to Morgan Stanley co-President Ted Pick.
The transition from the economic conditions that followed the 2008 financial crisis and whatever comes next will take “12, 18, 24 months” to unfold, according to Pick, who spoke this week at a New York financial conference.

“It’s an extraordinary moment; we have our first pandemic in 100 years. We have our first invasion in Europe in 75 years. And we have our first inflation around the world in 40 years,” Pick said. “When you look at the combination, the intersection of the pandemic, of the war, of the inflation, it signals paradigm shift, the end of 15 years of financial repression and the next era to come.”
Wall Street’s top executives making the rounds at financial conferences this week delivered dire warnings about the economy, led by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said that a “hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way.” That sentiment was echoed by Goldman Sachs President John Waldron, who called the overlapping “shocks to the system” unprecedented. Even regional bank CEO Bill Demchak said he thought a recession was unavoidable.
Instead of just raising alarms, Pick — a three-decade Morgan Stanley veteran who leads the firm’s trading and banking division — gave some historical context as well as his impression of what the tumultuous period ahead will look and feel like.

Fire and Ice

Markets will be dominated by two forces – concern over inflation, or “fire,” and recession, or “ice,” said Pick, who is considered a front-runner to eventually succeed CEO James Gorman.
“We’ll have these periods where it feels awfully fiery, and other periods where it feels icy, and clients need to navigate around that,” Pick said.

For Wall Street banks, certain businesses will boom, while others may idle. For years after the financial crisis, fixed income traders dealt with artificially becalmed markets, giving them less to do. Now, as central banks around the world begin to grapple with inflation, government bond and currency traders will be more active, according to Pick.
The uncertainty of the period has, at least for the moment, reduced merger activity, as companies navigate the unknowns. JPMorgan said last month that second-quarter investment banking fees have plunged 45% so far, while trading revenues rose as much as 20%.
“The banking calendar has quieted down a bit because people are trying to figure out whether we’re going to have this paradigm shift clarified sooner or later,” Pick said.

Ted Pick, Morgan Stanley
Source: Morgan Stanley

In the short term, if economic growth holds up and inflation calms down in the second half of the year, the “Goldilocks” narrative will take hold, bolstering markets, he said. (For what its worth, Dimon, citing the Ukraine war’s impact on food and fuel prices and the Federal Reserve’s move to shrink its balance sheet, seemed pessimistic that this scenario will play out.)
But the push and pull between inflation and recession concerns won’t be resolved overnight. Pick at several times referred to the post-2008 era as a period of “financial repression” — a theory in which policymakers keep interest rates low to provide cheap debt funding to countries and companies.
“The 15 years of financial repression do not just go to what’s next in three or six months… we’ll be having this conversation for the next 12, 18, 24 months,” Pick said.

Less than zero

Low or even negative interest rates have been the hallmark of the previous era, as well as measures to inject money into the system including bond-buying programs collectively known as quantitative easing. The moves have penalized savers and encouraged rampant borrowing.
By draining risk from the global financial system for years, central banks forced investors to take more risk to earn yield. Unprofitable corporations have been kept afloat by ready access to cheap debt. Thousands of start-ups have bloomed in recent years with a money burning, growth-at-any-cost mandate.
That is over as central banks prioritize the battle against runaway inflation.
The impact of their efforts will touch everyone from credit-card borrowers to employees of struggling corporations to the aspiring billionaires running Silicon Valley start-ups. Venture capital investors have been instructing start-ups to preserve cash and aim for actual profitability. Interest rates on many online savings accounts have edged closer to 1%.

Remember 2018?

But such shifts could be bumpy. The last time the Fed attempted quantitative tightening, back in 2018, odd things happened in stock, foreign exchange and oil markets. Less than a year after their campaign began, the world’s major central banks lost their nerve and halted QT programs amid slowing growth.
Some observers are worried about Black Swan-type events happening in the plumbing of the financial system, including the bursting of what one hedge fund manager called “the greatest credit bubble of human history.” Dimon sees “at a minimum, huge volatility” as the major purchasers of government bonds may not have the ability or appetite to step in.
Out of the ashes of this transition period, a new business cycle will emerge, Pick said.
“This paradigm shift at some point will bring in a new cycle,” he said. “It’s been so long since we’ve had to consider what a world is like with real interest rates and real cost of capital that will distinguish winning companies from losing companies, winning stocks from losing stocks.”

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For the best part of a decade, rock-bottom interest rates seemed like a fact of life in the euro zone—as did low inflation. Now consumer prices are rising at an annual rate exceeding 8%, well above the European Central Bank’s target of 2%. Members of the bank’s governing council have begun signalling their intent to raise rates soon, a message they are likely to reaffirm at a monetary-policy meeting on June 9th. But the ecb finds itself in a tricky position: of contending not only with surging prices, which might warrant rapid rate rises, but also gloomier growth prospects, which might warrant patience. The root cause of both developments is a severe energy-price shock. Prices of oil and natural gas had already been rising before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; the war sent prices soaring higher still. Those rising commodity prices have played a much bigger role in pushing up consumer-price inflation in Europe than in America, where generous stimulus has also been a culprit. According to Goldman Sachs, a bank, energy prices in the euro area—which rose at an annual rate of a whopping 39% in May—are contributing about four percentage points to headline inflation, compared with two points in America. The effects are beginning to spill over to other consumer prices. “Core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose more quickly in the euro zone in May than economists had expected. German producer prices rose at a record clip of 33.5% in April, compared with last year, driven not just by energy, but also energy-intensive intermediate goods, such as metals, concrete and chemicals. The result of all this is a big hit to businesses’ costs and households’ purchasing power. In how much danger does it put the euro area’s economy? One consequence of the energy shock is lower household incomes in real terms. Wage growth has been picking up modestly across the zone, but still trails behind inflation. Some employers have made one-off payments to workers, to compensate them for surging prices without incurring higher recurring wage costs. Even then, however, annual pay growth in the Netherlands, for instance, stood at just 2.8% in May, notwithstanding strong business sentiment and a tight labour market. In one sense, this is good news for the ecb, because it reduces the risk of a wage-price spiral. But it may feed into lower consumption, weakening the rest of the economy in turn.A moderation in demand only adds to a heap of woes for the manufacturing sector, where confidence is already in steep decline. Renewed supply disruptions as a result of China’s recent lockdowns and high energy prices are hurting businesses, with Germany and eastern Europe looking most vulnerable to an industrial slowdown. New orders for the zone’s manufacturers in May fell for the first time since June 2020, indicating weaker demand. Export orders declined at their fastest pace in two years. Economists are therefore pencilling in slower growth over the rest of the year. But few expect an outright recession just yet. That is because some parts of the economy confront the energy shock from a position of strength, rather than weakness. Many services firms are still reaping the rewards from reopening and the end of Omicron-related lockdowns. Southern countries are benefiting the most, given their reliance on tourism. In Spain arrivals of sun-seeking northerners almost reached pre-pandemic levels in April. Overall, business sentiment in services remains strong, with many firms reporting a growing backlog of work. Jobs are still plentiful, too. Across the bloc there were three vacancies for every 100 jobs in the first quarter of 2022, a high level by historical standards. Businesses’ hiring expectations have remained solid, albeit slightly weaker since the start of the war in Ukraine. More than one in four businesses in Europe say that a lack of staff is preventing them from producing more.A hoard of savings built up during lockdowns should also provide consumers with some cushion against the energy shock. According to our calculations, such “excess” savings in France and Germany amounted to around a tenth of households’ disposable incomes in the first quarter of 2022. These buffers will blunt the impact of the energy shock. But they will not offset it altogether. Excess savings, for a start, are not evenly distributed. Poorer people in rich countries, and most households in poorer countries, have precious little left. In Slovakia, for example, the savings rate never increased much during the pandemic, and is now well below its long-term average. “Consumption weakness will come from lower-income households,” says Jens Eisenschmidt of Morgan Stanley, another bank. Indeed, retail sales, in real terms, have moved sideways for months.Many governments have put together sizeable spending programmes to shield households from high energy prices. According to Bruegel, a think-tank, Germany, France and Italy and others are spending between 1-2% of gdp. Not all of that is well-targeted, however. Much of it is going on relief for better-off households that do not need it; other measures have involved meddling with prices, with some of the benefit going to energy suppliers.Even if the euro area is spared a recession, then, the energy shock will be a drag on growth. The ecb faces an unenviable dilemma. With every increase in inflation on the back of food and energy prices, the European economy is getting weaker. ■For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, business and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly newsletter. More

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:
Turning Point Therapeutics (TPTX) – The biopharmaceutical company’s shares more than doubled in premarket trading after agreeing to be acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) for $76 per share in cash, or $4.1 billion. Turning Point specializes in cancer treatments.

Lululemon (LULU) – Lululemon shares rose 1% in premarket trading after the athletic apparel and leisurewear maker reported a better-than-expected quarter and raised its full-year forecast. Lululemon beat estimates by 5 cents with a quarterly profit of $1.48 per share, amid continued strong demand for premium sportswear.
RH (RH) – RH slipped 4% in the premarket after the luxury home goods company issued a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook for the full year. RH reported better-than-expected profit and sales for its latest quarter and announced a $2 billion expansion of its stock buyback program.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) – CrowdStrike fell 4.3% in premarket action even though the cybersecurity company posted better-than-expected results for its latest quarter and issued an upbeat outlook. CrowdStrike stock had surged 7.8% Thursday ahead of the earnings report.
Kohl’s (KSS) – Kohl’s shares rallied 7.3% in premarket trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that the retailer received takeover bids from private equity firm Sycamore Partners and retail holding company Franchise Group. Sycamore’s bid is said to value Kohl’s in the mid-$50s per share, while Franchise Group is offering about $60. Kohl’s had closed Thursday at $41.18.
Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla shares slid 4.7% in the premarket following a report that CEO Elon Musk ordered an immediate hiring freeze and a 10% reduction in staff. The order came in a memo seen by Reuters, which quoted Musk as saying he feels “super bad” about the economy.

Coinbase (COIN) – Coinbase is extending a hiring freeze and rescinding some job offers that had been accepted. The cryptocurrency exchange operator said in a blog post that it would pause hiring for “as long as this macro environment requires.” Coinbase fell 3.7% in premarket trading.
Alaska Air (ALK) – The airline boosted its current-quarter revenue outlook, saying it is experienced sustained strong demand. Alaska Air also said stronger revenue is offsetting higher costs for fuel. The stock added 1% in the premarket.
Okta (OKTA) – The identity management software company’s stock surged 15.6% in the premarket after it reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal first quarter. Okta said it is not seeing any impact from the security breach of its systems in March, nor from macroeconomic conditions. The premarket surge in Okta shares follows a nearly 11% gain in Thursday’s trading.
Chegg (CHGG) – The education technology company’s shares rallied 6.3% in premarket trading after it announced a $1 billion increase in its share repurchase program.
PagerDuty (PD) – The cloud computing company reported better-than-expected revenue for its latest quarter and a smaller-than-expected loss. The company also anticipates it will report an annual profit next year. PagerDuty added 3.2% in the premarket.

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Stock futures rose Thursday evening as investors focus their attention on more jobs data due out Friday morning.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up about 30 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both higher by 0.1%.

In regular trading Thursday, all three major indexes snapped two-day losing streaks, putting them on pace for a winning week. The Dow added 435.05 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 gained 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.7%.
Thursday’s gains pushed the major averages into the green for the week. The S&P 500 is up 0.5% and headed for a second positive week in a row.
Trading was choppy at the start of trading Thursday with investors divided on recession calls and if the Federal Reserve may be positioned to take a break from its interest rate hikes. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Thursday told CNBC it’s unlikely to do so anytime soon and that it’s “got a lot of work to do to get inflation down to our 2% target.”
Investors were also digesting employment data released by ADP in the morning, which showed the slowest job creation pace of the pandemic-era recovery.
But stocks rallied into the close, finishing near session highs, as investors saw value in tech shares and other beaten-down names in this year’s pullback. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. Though the pace of job growth is expected to have slowed for the month of May, economists say the labor market remains strong, even as parts of the economy have weakened.

“Today’s data also only heightens the focus on Friday’s May payrolls release – particularly on wage growth,” wrote Goldman’s Chris Hussey. “A very strong reading might signal that the Fed has a lot more to do to quell inflationary pressures in the economy, while a big negative surprise – like we saw in ADP today – could support those who think the U.S. is fast slipping into a recession.”
Economists see 328,000 jobs added in May, down 100,000 from April, according to a Dow Jones survey. Consensus estimates call for wages to rise by 0.4%, a faster pace than April’s 0.3% increase.

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Elsewhere, traders also examined a warning from Microsoft as the company lowered its fourth-quarter guidance, blaming unfavorable foreign exchange rates. Microsoft fell to start the session before ending Thursday in the green slightly.
There are no big earnings reports scheduled for Friday. In addition to the nonfarm payrolls, traders will also be watching new purchasing managers’ index data from Markit and ISM, due out in the morning.

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People line up to enter a store during Black Friday shopping at Fashion Outlets of Chicago in Rosemont of Greater Chicago Area, Illinois, the United States, on Nov. 26, 2021.
Joel Lerner | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in extended trading.
Lululemon Athletica — Shares of the athleisure apparel company gained about 1% following the its quarterly financial results. Earnings and revenue topped estimates of Wall Street analysts, boosted by growth online and in the retailer’s men’s division. The company also raised its outlook for fiscal 2022.

RH — The luxury home furnishings company saw shares fall 2.2% after an initial spike right after the release of strong earnings and revenue for its most recent quarter. Weighing the stock was a weak full-year forecast. It expects second-quarter revenue to decline 1% to 3%, compared with estimates of a 5% increase, according to Refinitiv.
Okta — The maker of authentication and authorization services saw its stock surge 16% after it reported revenue of $415 million for its most recent quarter, compared with analysts’ estimates of $389 million. Its loss of 27 cents per share was narrower than expected. Analysts estimated a loss of 34 cents per share, according to Refinitiv.
Asana — Work management platform Asana’s shares fell about 3.6% after the company said it expects a wider-than-expected adjusted loss of 38 cents to 39 cents per share in the second quarter. A loss of 32 cents per share had been predicted. The company posted strong first-quarter revenue and a narrower-than-expected adjusted loss of 30 cents per share. It also issued an upbeat revenue forecast.
CrowdStrike — The cloud company’s shares slid 3.7% despite CrowdStrike posting a beat on both earnings and revenue for its most recent quarter.

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