Finance

Cars are seen parked in front of a Dick’s Sporting Goods store at Monroe Marketplace in Pennsylvania.
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Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading Wednesday.
Dick’s Sporting Goods – Shares of the sporting goods seller jumped 9.7%, despite the company cutting its outlook for the year, after the retailer topped earnings and revenue estimates for its fiscal first quarter. Dick’s CEO Lauren Hobart said she’s confident the company will be able to “adapt quickly” to uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Express – Shares rallied 6.7% after the apparel retailer reported better-than-expected quarterly results. Express lost an adjusted 10 cents per share. That’s narrower than the 15-cents-per-share loss expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Revenue also topped the consensus forecast, and Express raised its full-year comparable-sales outlook.
Wendy’s – The fast-food chain saw surged 9.8% after a filing revealed Trian, Wendy’s largest shareholder, is exploring a potential deal with the company. Trian, along with its partners, owns a 19.4% stake in the burger chain and said it was seeking a deal to “enhance shareholder value” that could include an acquisition or merger.
Dell Technologies – Shares gained 5.9% after Evercore added the PC maker to its “Tactical Outperform” list. Dell is set to report earnings Thursday.
Nordstrom – Shares of the department store soared 14% after the company reported fiscal first-quarter sales that came in ahead of analysts’ estimates. Nordstrom also hiked its financial outlook for the full year, citing momentum in the business.
Intuit – Shares jumped 8.2% after the tax software company topped earnings expectations and raised its outlook for the current quarter. Intuit also got a boost from strong performances by some of its brands, including Credit Karma.

Toll Brothers – Shares of the homebuilder popped nearly 8% after Toll Brothers beat expectations for its fiscal second quarter. The company reported $1.85 in earnings per share on $2.19 billion of sales. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting $1.54 per share on $2.06 billion of sales. Toll CEO Douglas Yearley said in a release that demand has moderated over the past month but still appears healthy for the long term.
Urban Outfitters – Urban Outfitters rallied 15.5% despite a weaker-than-expected first-quarter report. Like other retailers, Urban Outfitters highlighted the negative impact of inflation on its operations including higher costs for raw materials and transportation.
Porch Group — Shares jumped 5.7% after Compass Point initiated coverage of the real estate technology company with a buy rating. The firm said Porch has a “unique business model.”
Diamondback Energy — The energy stock rose 4.4% after Barclays upgraded Diamondback to overweight from equal weight. Barclays said it sees “increasing cash returns” for Diamondback in the second half of the year.
— CNBC’s Jesse Pound, Yun Li, Tanaya Macheel and Sarah Min contributed reporting.

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Spring weather often lures a stampede of homebuyers. Blossoming flowers and gushing sunlight after the winter slog make homes look more inviting. Not this year, though. Across the rich world house-hunters perturbed by high prices and rising rates are holding fire on mortgage applications. In America new home sales have crashed to two-year lows. One group of buyers, however, remains unfazed: Wall Street. What began as an opportunistic bet on single-family housing during America’s subprime crash of 2007-10 has morphed into a mainstream asset class. Today all sorts of institutions—from private-equity firms to insurers and pension funds—are piling into the sector. They are unlikely to vacate it: being a rentier looks as appealing as ever. One reason is that demand for rental homes will jump as homeownership gets costlier. American savers need on average $15,000 more than they did before the pandemic to afford a 10% downpayment. In San Francisco they need an extra $38,000. Higher borrowing costs, on the other hand, are forcing millennials nearing their peak buying years into longer leases. This coincides with a larger trend fuelled by the pandemic: a shift from apartments towards larger, suburban homes with gardens and office space—which many households cannot afford and must therefore rent.A scarcity of housing will also help the rentiers. Despite a recent surge in investment, the market for single-family homes remains woefully undersupplied. By one estimate, America is short more than 5m homes for buyers and renters. England has more than 28 prospective tenants for every available property. Big institutions are building their way out of constrained supply. In America, more than one in four new properties added to the portfolios of single-family rental providers in the final quarter of 2021 were built rather than bought, up from 3% in the third quarter of 2019. In Britain, investors are projected to supply a tenth of the government’s target for new housing in the next few years. This helps explain the sector’s resilience. While landlords of shops, bars and restaurants struggled to collect payments at the start of the pandemic, strong demand for single-family homes pushed rents through the roof. In America they rose by 13% in the 12 months to March 2022. In Miami, they jumped by more than 40%. Rents held up relatively well during the global financial crisis; in some markets they even grew (see chart). That is helping to reassure investors as a recession looms.There are risks. Asset prices will be sensitive to higher rates, particularly if inflation stays high. Yet it is the smallest landlords, with five homes or fewer, who look most exposed. They own nearly nine in ten single-family rental homes in America. John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a research firm, reckons smaller investors bought 28% of all homes sold in the country during the first quarter of 2022, compared with 6% for investors with more than ten homes. As Wall Street’s home run continues, it is the lesser landlords who have their backs to the wall. ■ More

On his whirlwind tour of Asia, concluded on May 24th, President Joe Biden conducted himself with the awkward urgency of a man trying to correct a costly error. China may be reeling, but the ambivalent reaction, outside rich democracies, to America’s late search for solidarity reveals how Washington’s global influence has faded relative to Beijing’s. Mr Biden’s proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, unveiled on May 23rd, seems an acknowledgment of why that is: for too long America had all but abandoned efforts to forge new economic ties in the region.Establishing a causal link between economic interdependence and the balance of geopolitical power is no simple matter, however. That economies often trade more with countries that share similar political values and interests is clear enough. Yet it could be the case that strategic concerns tend to drive economic relationships, not the other way around, or that other shared features—such as income levels or culture—bring countries closer in both economic and political terms. Two recent papers help to pick apart what causes what. A first, by Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding of Princeton University, considers whether economic interdependence fosters greater political alignment. To answer the question, the authors build a model in which countries sometimes take costly actions, such as providing military aid to an ally, in order to boost growth in countries with which they share political ideals and aims. For those benevolent countries, the incentive to be generous is partly rooted in the expectation that, as the economy of the allied country grows, they will receive an economic dividend. Yet in the world the authors depict, the reward is not fixed. If a country’s economic fortunes become less entangled with some places and more with others, then the relative pay-off from making costly political investments in those places changes—and so, over time, will patterns of political friendship and enmity. Economic interdependence, in other words, causes political rapprochement. The authors reckon that China’s early liberalisation, by driving a one-off surge in the country’s economic engagement with the world, provides evidence for this proposition. In assessing economic interdependence, they focus on one measure: how productivity growth in one country affects real incomes in others. Economic heft alone does not ensure that other places’ fortunes are bound up with your own. Instead, both rapid economic growth and extensive involvement in global supply chains can amplify a country’s economic influence on its trading partners. Though initially modest, China’s global economic influence had, by the late 2000s, overtaken America’s: the effect of Chinese growth on the incomes of its trading partners was larger than that of Uncle Sam (indeed, nearly double it by 2010). From 1980 to 2010, the paper finds, the more economically enmeshed a country became with China, the more political alignment ensued, as captured by patterns of un voting, the forming of formal alliances and similar metrics. The authors find further support for their model by looking at global trade shifts associated with collapsing air-freight costs. Because shipping by sea must flow around continents whereas aircraft follow great-circle routes, the falling cost of air freight in the three decades to 2010 had uneven effects on bilateral trade flows around the globe. This variation offers another way to test how growth in economic interdependence leads to political alignment—and the test, again, is conclusive. This would seem to back oft-aired concerns that China’s rise has not just redrawn the geopolitical map, but also helped to erode democracy worldwide. Yet here the news is encouraging. New work by Giacomo Magistretti of the imf and Marco Tabellini of Harvard University also exploits falling air-transport costs to tease out the causal effect of trade on both attitudes towards democracy and the overall political orientation of a country. They find that stronger economic ties indeed facilitate the transmission of political values—but only if said values are democratic.The effects are big. People who grew up during periods when their home economy traded comparatively more with democracies appear to be much more drawn to open regimes than those who came of age under opposite circumstances. The difference in attitudes is equivalent to that between the support reported by residents of Sweden (a bunch of hardcore democrats) and those of China (who are more tentative). Pro-democracy populations, in turn, translate into more open institutions. An 80% rise in trade with democratic countries over a five-year period raises a country’s Polity score (which measures how democratic a country’s governing institutions are on a scale from -10 to 10) by four points: the difference, roughly, between Russia and Britain. Strikingly, trade with autocracies seems to have no such effect. Excluding America or China from the analysis does not alter the results.Bye AmericaWhy should trade with democracies work this way? The data do not permit firm conclusions. But evidence suggests the spur to democratisation does not stem from faster economic growth or rising levels of education. Neither does it result from increased migration. Instead, the authors’ favourite theory assumes that trade with democracies boosts a country’s “democratic capital”: it fosters an appreciation for the value of democracy which helps cement a social consensus in support of democratic institutions. That seems plausible, if perhaps a little vague.Both trade and geopolitics will look different in the years ahead than they did during the post-war era of American hegemony and globalisation. But economic ties are likely to retain their capacity to cultivate allies and shore up support for democracy. If Mr Biden wishes to bolster America’s national security, he might consider giving freer trade a chance. ■ More

Health savings accounts carry a three-pronged tax benefit: tax-free contributions, earnings and withdrawals. They’re available to people with high-deductible health plans.
HSAs can be a powerful way to build wealth and save for medical costs in old age, according to financial advisors.
To the extent possible, savers should invest their HSA funds and pay out of pocket for current health costs. They can keep receipts and reimburse themselves later.

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Health savings accounts can be a powerful way to build wealth and prepare for medical costs in old age — if they’re used the right way.
HSAs carry a three-pronged tax benefit. Contributions and investment growth are tax-free, as are withdrawals if used for qualified health expenses.

Even if a withdrawal isn’t health-related, the account owner would only owe income tax on those funds — in effect turning the HSA into an account with tax benefits akin to a traditional 401(k) plan or individual retirement account.
“I almost don’t think of them as health savings accounts, but profoundly tax-beneficial retirement accounts,” said Andy Baxley, a Chicago-based certified financial planner at The Planning Center.

Ideal use

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The ideal way for savers to use HSAs is by contributing the annual maximum, investing the money and paying for present-day health costs out of pocket via other savings, according to financial advisors.
This allows time for HSA money to grow tax-free. HSA investments are like those in any other retirement account, with diversified stock and bond mutual funds, for example.
Most people don’t invest their HSA savings, however. They instead use HSAs like a bank account and withdraw cash as needed to pay for current medical costs.

Just 9% of accountholders were investing a portion of their HSA balance in 2020, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. The remainder — 91% — held their full balance in cash.
But this offers virtually no upside growth — a disadvantage when health costs in retirement are expected to be about $300,000 for the average couple who retired in 2021, according to a Fidelity Investments estimate.
The IRS outlines a wide variety of qualifying HSA health costs, like those associated with dental care, vision, hearing, long-term care insurance premiums (subject to limits) and medicines, for example.

HSA reimbursement

Savers who pay out of pocket now for health costs can take advantage of another HSA benefit in future years: They can withdraw account funds to pay themselves back (tax-free) for those earlier expenses.
As with withdrawals from a Roth 401(k) or IRA, these HSA reimbursements can offer retirement income and help someone control their tax bill.

An HSA is a no-brainer for almost everyone who has access to one.

Carolyn McClanahan
founder and head of financial planning at Life Planning Partners

Say you’re on the cusp of jumping into a higher income-tax bracket in retirement but had spent $10,000 out of pocket over the years on medical bills. You can withdraw that $10,000 from your HSA for past costs without raising your taxable income.
(One important point: Expenses incurred before you establish your HSA aren’t considered qualifying medical costs.)
“I think [people] often don’t realize just how broad the list of things you can be reimbursed for is,” Baxley said, citing fertility treatment as an example.
He recommends creating a spreadsheet of unreimbursed medical expenses (to know how much you can pay yourself later) and keeping receipts for proof.

Caveats

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Of course, many people don’t have the financial means to use HSAs in the ideal way.
Individuals are living longer and have had to adopt more individual responsibility for their retirement savings, as companies have switched pensions for 401(k) plans, for example.
Limited cash flow may mean having competing financial priorities: emergency funds, retirement plans and health savings, for example. (Individuals and families can contribute up to $3,650 and $7,300, respectively, to an HSA this year.) Paying out of pocket for current costs may also not be possible, depending on a person’s financial situation.
More from Personal Finance:Why 2022 has been a dangerous time to retireYou can’t put money in an HSA once you’re on MedicareIRS boosts HSA contribution limits for 2023
Further, only those with high-deductible health plans can save in an HSA. In 2021, 28% of workers covered by employer-sponsored health insurance were enrolled in a high-deductible health plan with a savings option like an HSA, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. (Enrollment is a bit higher in large firms with more than 200 workers.)
Caveats aside, those with access should try using them as optimally as possible, financial advisors said.
“An HSA is a no-brainer for almost everyone who has access to one,” according to Carolyn McClanahan, a medical doctor and CFP who is founder and head of financial planning at Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida.
A high-deductible plan — and, by extension, an HSA — might not be the best choice for everyone. For example, someone with a chronic illness that leads to frequent doctor visits may get a bigger financial benefit from a plan with lower annual out-of-pocket costs.

How to invest

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Like any other investment account, it’s imperative to understand your financial and psychological ability to take risk by investing your HSA funds, McClanahan said.
That means being able to withstand the ups and downs in the stock market, and aligning your strategy to your investment time horizon.
A young saver with the financial wherewithal to pay out of pocket for present-day health costs can afford to take risk, for example — perhaps in a low-cost broadly diversified stock fund, McClanahan said.
However, savers who don’t have the means to cover their annual deductible or out-of-pocket maximum with other savings should keep at least this amount in cash or something else conservative like a money-market fund before investing the rest, McClanahan said. (Some HSA providers require accountholders to keep a certain amount in cash before investing.)
This is especially the case for savers who aren’t healthy and need frequent health care, she added.
Similarly, someone closer to retirement age should likely reduce their stock allocations to avoid putting money at risk near the age at which they’ll start tapping their accounts.

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Backers of Terra have voted to revive the failed cryptocurrency venture without its controversial UST stablecoin.
The proposal would lead to the creation of a new Terra blockchain and its associated luna token.
UST, a so-called “algorithmic” stablecoin, plunged below its intended $1 peg earlier this month, causing a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies.

The UST stablecoin plunged below its intended $1 peg in May, causing panic in the crypto market.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Backers of Terra have approved a plan to revive the failed cryptocurrency venture — without the controversial stablecoin that helped trigger its stunning demise two weeks ago.
“With overwhelming support, the Terra ecosystem has voted to pass Proposal 1623, calling for the genesis of a new blockchain and the preservation of our community,” Terra’s official Twitter account posted Wednesday.

The proposal would lead to the creation of a new blockchain — a shared ledger of transactions — and its associated luna token, which is now worthless after investors fled en masse in the crypto equivalent of a run on the bank.
Earlier this month, terraUSD, a so-called stablecoin, plunged below its intended $1 peg. That led to panic in the crypto market, with investors dumping its sister token, luna.
TerraUSD, or UST, is what’s known as an “algorithmic” stablecoin. Through some complex engineering, it was designed to maintain its dollar value through the creation and destruction of UST and luna, which would — in theory — help balance supply and demand.
That’s different from how many major stablecoins, like tether and USDC, are meant to operate — as in, with actual fiat currency held in a reserve to support the dollar peg in the event clients withdraw their funds.
At their height, luna and UST had a combined market value of almost $60 billion.

Skeptics abound

Under the new proposal, Terra plans to distribute tokens to holders of the old luna — soon to be renamed “luna classic” — and UST tokens.
About 30% of tokens will go to a pool of investors in the Terra community; 35% will go to those who held luna before its collapse; 10% to pre-collapse UST holders. A further 25% of tokens will be allocated to traders who still own luna and UST after the crash.
Luna spiked more than 20% Wednesday, according to CoinGecko data. UST was up over 50%.
Many market observers remain unconvinced Terra’s revival plan will work.
“There has been a massive loss in confidence overall in the Terra project,” said Vijay Ayyar, head of international at the Luno crypto exchange.
“This is a very crowded space already with a number of already well entrenched platforms that have lots of developer activity. I don’t see why Terra would succeed here.”
The Terra debacle has knocked investor confidence in bitcoin and the broader crypto market, which has collectively lost roughly $600 billion in value in the past month alone.
Regulators are becoming concerned, with the likes of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde calling for urgent regulation of crypto — especially stablecoins.

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Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:
Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) – The sporting goods retailer’s shares slid 14.4% in the premarket after it issued a weaker-than-expected outlook for the full year as it adjusts for what it calls challenging macroeconomic conditions. Dick’s reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and comparable-store sales that fell less than expected.

Express (EXPR) – The apparel retailer’s shares jumped 11.8% in premarket trading after reporting quarterly results that were better than expected. Express lost an adjusted 10 cents per share, narrower than the 15-cent loss anticipated by analysts, and revenue topped forecasts as well. Express also raised its full-year outlook for comparable-store sales.
Wendy’s (WEN) – Wendy’s rallied 8.8% in premarket action after long-time shareholder Trian Fund Management said it was exploring an acquisition or other potential deal for the restaurant chain. Trian is the company’s largest shareholder, with a 19.4% stake.
Dell Technologies (DELL) – Dell added 1% in premarket trading after Evercore added the information technology company to its “Tactical Outperform” list. Evercore believes IT demand trends remain strong enough to lead to an earnings beat and a raised outlook when Dell reports quarterly earnings Thursday.
Lyft (LYFT) – Lyft plans to cut budgets and slow hiring, moves similar to those recently announced by ride-sharing rival Uber Technologies (UBER). Lyft shares are down more than 60% this year, including a more than 17% tumble Tuesday.
Nordstrom (JWN) – Nordstrom rose 5.3% in the premarket after the retailer raised its annual sales and profit forecast, a contrast to other big box retailers. Nordstrom posted a slightly wider-than-expected loss for the first quarter, while sales at the flagship Nordstrom brand stores surged 23.5% to exceed pre-pandemic levels.

Intuit (INTU) – Intuit shares rose 2.5% in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue. The financial software company also raised its current-quarter outlook on improvement in its QuickBooks business and the addition of recently acquired email marketing firm Mailchimp.
Toll Brothers (TOL) – Toll Brothers stock rallied 3.5% in premarket action after the luxury home builder beat top and bottom-line estimates for its latest quarter. Toll Brothers said that while demand was still solid, it has moderated amid higher mortgage rates and changing macroeconomic conditions.
Urban Outfitters (URBN) – Urban Outfitters fell 1.6% in premarket trading after first-quarter results that fell shy of analyst forecasts on both the top and bottom lines. Like other retailers, Urban Outfitters highlighted the negative impact of inflation on its operations including higher costs for raw materials and transportation.
Correction: Nordstrom posted a slightly wider-than-expected loss for the first quarter, while sales at the flagship Nordstrom brand stores surged 23.5% to exceed pre-pandemic levels. An earlier version mischaracterized the figure.

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The Silicon Valley firm announced a new $4.5 billion fund for backing crypto and blockchain companies on Wednesday.
Partners Arianna Simpson and Chris Dixon liken the long-term opportunity in crypto to “the next major computing cycle,” after PCs in the 1980s, the internet in the 1990s and mobile computing in the early 2000s.
Bear markets are often when the best opportunities come about, said Simpson.

Chris Dixon, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, discusses cryptocurrency during the TechCrunch Disrupt forum in San Francisco, October 2, 2019.
Kate Munsch | Reuters

Andreessen Horowitz plans to plow billions of dollars into crypto start-ups while digital asset markets are in a rut.
The Silicon Valley firm announced a new $4.5 billion fund for backing crypto and blockchain companies on Wednesday. It marks Andreessen’s fourth fund for the asset class and brings its total raised for crypto and blockchain investments to $7.6 billion. The firm plans to invest in both the cryptocurrencies behind projects and in company equity.

Andreessen’s first crypto-focused fund was launched four years ago, during a downturn now known as “crypto winter.”
“Bear markets are often when the best opportunities come about, when people are actually able to focus on building technology rather than getting distracted by short-term price activity,” Arianna Simpson, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz told CNBC in a phone interview.
Cryptocurrencies have slid significantly from their all-time highs, with bitcoin down more than 50% since its November peak, and they remain tightly correlated to higher growth tech stocks, which have undergone a major slide this year. Earlier in May, the crash of stablecoin TerraUSD shook investor sentiment and caught the attention of regulators.
But Simpson said investors should not worry about the firm’s bets.
“The technical diligence and the other kinds of diligence that we do are a key part of of making sure that projects meet our bar,” she said. “While our pace of investment has been high, we continue to invest really in only the top echelon of founders.”

Simpson and partner Chris Dixon liken the long-term opportunity in crypto to the next major computing cycle, after PCs in the 1980s, the internet in the 1990s and mobile computing in the early 2000s.
Andreessen Horowitz is known for early bets on Lyft, Pinterest and Slack, and made its first major crypto investment with Coinbase in 2013. The firm has since backed a variety of start-ups in the crypto and NFT space, including Alchemy, Avalanche, Dapper Labs, OpenSea, Solana and Yuga Labs. Earlier this week it invested in Flowcarbon, a carbon-credit trading platform on the blockchain also backed by controversial WeWork founder Adam Neumann.
While cryptocurrencies may be struggling to regain momentum, money flowing into private companies is at all-time highs. Blockchain start-ups brought in a record $25 billion in venture capital dollars last year, according to recent data from CB Insights. That figure is up eightfold from a year earlier.
The flood of investment into so-called “Web3” start-ups trying to build businesses on blockchain technology has inspired scorn from some tech luminaries. Two of the world’s best-known tech billionaires, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, have been among those questioning “Web3.” Dorsey argues VCs and their limited partners are the ones who will ultimately end up owning Web3 and it “will never escape their incentives,” he tweeted, calling it a “centralized entity with a different label.”
“The people who are skeptical are not where we are, which is again in the fortunate position of being able to talk to these brilliant builders all day,” Simpson said. “The other thing I would add is that many of the skeptics are the titans of Web 2.0 — they have been very much in a position to profit from and benefit from the closed platforms.”
Clarification: While Andreessen Horowitz was a seed investor in Brbn, the company that later pivoted to become photo-sharing platform called Instagram, it passed on the chance to invest in Instagram itself. More

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While retail investors head for the exits as stock prices sharply fluctuate, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel wants to put money to work.
He calls the market environment very ugly, but he believes the economy will avert a recession — particularly due to healthy credit markets and continued gains.

“The path to higher [stock] prices really is a function of being able to discount the macro news and focus on the fact that you’re still going to have mid-to-high, single-digit earnings growth,” the firm’s senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.
His S&P 500 year-end target is 4,800, which implies a 22% jump from the Tuesday market close. Emanuel contends much of the market losses were driven by retail investors who were overexposed to growth stocks, namely in Big Tech.
“The bull case rests on essentially a drying up of the public selling of these stocks,” he said.
According to Emanuel, retail investors will return to stocks when they figure out employment remains strong and inflation is peaking. He expects that to happen later this summer.
“When things turn down, that will be a more benign environment for the equity markets,” said Emanuel.

His forecast also hinges on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield cooling and ending the year at 3%. On Tuesday, the yield fell to its lowest level in more than a month.
Emanuel is most bullish on health care and sees solid upside for long-term investors. He’s also overweight in financials and industrials.
“The shift from growth to value is something that’s ongoing,” Emanuel said.
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