Finance

IT WAS A simple, stunning admission. “We have had price stability for a very long time and maybe come to take it for granted,” said Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, last month. Many factors explain the latest burst in inflation, with snarled supply chains, tight job markets, generous fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy and, more recently, the war in Ukraine all part of the fabric. But one thread runs through them all. Investors, analysts and, crucially, central bankers believed that high inflation in America had been consigned to history, a problem more for academic studies than for current policy.Listen to this story. Enjoy more audio and podcasts on More

About half of states cut federal unemployment benefits in June or July 2021, a few months ahead of their scheduled expiration.
State officials thought pulling funds would help ease the challenges employers were facing in hiring workers.
But a paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that policy didn’t seem to have its intended effect on employment.

A “We’re Hiring” sign hangs on the front door of a toy store in Greenvale, New York, on Sept. 30, 2021.
John Paraskevas/Newsday RM via Getty Images

State cuts to pandemic unemployment benefits last summer had a small impact on hiring, suggesting enhanced funding for the unemployed didn’t play a big role in labor shortages, according to a recent report.
The federal government greatly expanded the social safety net for the jobless in March 2020. It offered hundreds of dollars in additional weekly benefits to individuals and gave aid to millions of previously ineligible people, like gig workers and the self-employed.    

Governors of roughly half the states, most of them Republican, withdrew federal benefits in June or July 2021 — a few months before their scheduled expiration nationwide on Sept. 6.

The debate at the time centered on what was seen as the likelihood that the benefit boost was contributing to employers’ hiring challenges.
Some officials believed federal assistance kept people from looking for work, while others argued that factors like ongoing pandemic health risks and family-care duties (kids home from school, for example) played a bigger role in the job crunch.
But an analysis by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found states that withdrew benefits early didn’t experience the intended effect of spurring a big increase in jobs. It compared hiring rates from July to September 2021 in the states that ended benefits with those that kept them intact.

Hiring picked up a minuscule 0.2 percentage point in the “cutoff” states compared to the benefit-keeping states — a “quite small” increase considering states’ average monthly hiring rates of about 4%-5%, according to the analysis.

Put differently, if a state that maintained federal benefits had a 4.5% hiring rate, a state that cut them would have had a 4.7% rate.  
“That would be pretty much imperceptible,” said Robert Valletta, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who co-authored the analysis.
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The hiring rate measures the number of hires during a month relative to overall employment; it serves as a “natural starting point” to assess the policy impact, the analysis said.
Earlier research into the effects of pandemic unemployment benefits have largely had similar findings.
One study in August 2021 also found little impact on jobs and suggested an early withdrawal of benefits might harm state economies. Other studies have examined a $600 weekly enhancement offered from March to July 2020 and found the extra benefit didn’t prove to be a big disincentive on returning to work.
Some research does conflict with this assessment, however. For example, a paper from December found a large uptick in employment among “prime age” unemployed workers (ages 25 to 54) in states that opted out of federal benefit programs in June.

Varying results boil down to different economic data sets that researchers have used to examine the dynamic, according to Valletta.
One caveat to the San Francisco Fed’s report is that it doesn’t account for different labor market conditions in the “cutoff” states versus those that maintained federal benefits.
For example, a small hiring impact in cutoff states might have been partly attributable to labor markets that had already rebounded to a greater degree than comparable non-cutoff states. In that case, there might have been less of a chance of a hiring boom.

It’s important to keep in mind that some meaningful fraction of people suffered real hardship.

Robert Valletta
senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Valletta and his colleagues have studied this point in preliminary follow-up work, he said. So far, they’ve also found subdued hiring rates in the states that lost federal benefits in early September — suggesting the elimination of benefits didn’t cause a big pickup in hiring regardless of the relative labor market conditions, he said.
However, Valletta and the co-authors go on to note that their findings seem to indicate that while hiring didn’t surge, the early benefit cutoff didn’t harm the states’ labor markets.
“But it’s important to keep in mind that some meaningful fraction of people suffered real hardship as a result,” Valletta said.

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Pedestrians pass in front of a GAP store in New York.
Scott Mlyn | CNBC

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading Friday.
American Express — Shares of the payment firm dipped 1.1% despite American Express topping earnings expectations for the first quarter. American Express reported a profit of $2.73 per share, versus the Refinitiv consensus estimate of $2.44 per share. Earnings got a boost from spending by millennials and Gen-X consumers, the company said.

Verizon Communications — Shares of Verizon fell 6.1% after the company reported a loss of 36,000 monthly phone subscribers during the first quarter, compared with a FactSet estimate of a 49,300 loss. Verizon also posted earnings and revenue for the quarter that were in line with Wall Street forecasts.
HCA Healthcare, Universal Health Services, Intuitive Surgical — The health-care sector was under pressure Friday, with HCA Healthcare as its greatest laggard after reporting disappointing full-year earnings and revenue guidance. HCA dropped 19%, Universal Health Services tumbled 13%, and Intuitive Surgical declined about 13%.
SVB Financial Group — Shares for the regional bank soared more than 11% after the company reported strong earnings. SVB Financial Group earned an adjusted $6.22 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $5.60 from FactSet. The company’s net interest income also beat expectations.
Kimberly-Clark Corporation — Shares for the consumer products company spiked nearly 9% after Kimberly-Clark exceeded earnings expectations. The firm earned $1.35 per share in its most recent quarter, versus consensus estimates of $1.23 per share from Refinitiv. Kimberly-Clark also raised its full-year organic sales forecast.
Schlumberger — Shares jumped more than 3% after the oilfield services producer beat earnings expectations. Schlumberger earned 34 cents per share, versus analyst expectations of 33 cents per share. Schlumberger also hiked its dividend by 40%.

Gap — Shares for the retailer fell about 20% after Gap announced the chief executive officer of its Old Navy business, Nancy Green, is leaving the firm this week. Gap also cut its outlook for net sales growth this fiscal year.
— CNBC’s Tanaya Macheel contributed reporting.

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Online payments firm Stripe says it will start offering merchants the ability to pay their users in cryptocurrency through the stablecoin USDC.
Starting Friday, Twitter will let a certain number of creators receive their earnings from its paid Ticketed Spaces and Super Follows features in crypto.
It’s Stripe’s first significant push into crypto since dropping support for bitcoin four years ago.

Illustrative image of two commemorative bitcoins with a green background.
Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Stripe will allow businesses to pay their users via cryptocurrencies, starting with Twitter, in the latest sign of how large financial firms are warming to digital assets.
The online payment processor said Friday it will start offering merchants the ability to make payouts in crypto through the stablecoin USDC. Stablecoins are tokens that are pegged to fiat currencies to maintain a stable price. In USDC’s case, as the name suggests, the cryptocurrency is backed by the U.S. dollar.

Twitter will be the first firm to integrate the new payment method. Starting Friday, the social media platform — which has been the subject of much talk lately over a potential takeover by Tesla CEO Elon Musk — will let a certain number of creators receive their earnings from its paid Ticketed Spaces and Super Follows features in USDC.
It’s Stripe’s first significant push into crypto since dropping support for bitcoin four years ago. The San Francisco-based start-up stopped accepting payments via bitcoin in January 2018, citing the digital coin’s notoriety for volatile price swings and a lack of efficiency in making everyday transactions.

But the firm has since warmed to crypto amid hype over “Web3,” a movement in tech that calls for the creation of a decentralized version of the internet based on blockchain technology. Stripe last year formed a team dedicated to exploring crypto and Web3. In November, Stripe co-founder John Collison hinted the firm may soon offer crypto support again.
“While the ‘store of value’ aspects of cryptocurrencies typically receive the most attention, we view the prospect of ‘open-access global financial rails’ as being at least equally compelling,” Stripe said in a blogpost Friday. “As a result, we’ve been exploring ways to use cryptocurrency-based platforms to unlock broader access.”
The company’s crypto payouts feature will run on the Polygon network, a so-called “Layer 2” solution that sits on top of the Ethereum network to handle transactions faster and at a lower cost. Bitcoin, ether and other cryptocurrencies have faced criticism over sluggish transaction times and high fees.

“We plan to add support for additional rails and payout currencies over time,” Stripe said.
Stripe isn’t the only company opening up its platform to digital currencies — in fact, the company is arguably late to the party. Visa, Mastercard and PayPal and other major payment processors have all announced moves of their own in the space. That was back when digital currency prices were still rising.
More recently, several major cryptocurrencies have slumped sharply from record highs, with bitcoin, the world’s largest, down more than 40% from a November peak of nearly $69,000. Bitcoin was trading at around $40,373.36 on Friday, off by about 4% in the last 24 hours.

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Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:
American Express (AXP) – American Express rose 1.2% in the premarket after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue for the first quarter. Amex reported a profit of $2.73 per share compared with the $2.44 consensus estimate, helped by increased spending by millennial and Gen-X consumers as well as small and medium-sized businesses.

Verizon (VZ) – Verizon earned an adjusted $1.35 per share for the first quarter, matching estimates, with revenue also essentially in line. Verizon lost 36,000 phone subscribers during the quarter, less than the 49,300 losses expected by analysts who were surveyed by FactSet. Verizon fell 1.4% in premarket trading.
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) – The consumer products company’s shares jumped 3.8% in the premarket after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue. Kimberly-Clark said it was able to deal with a “volatile and inflationary” environment and raised its full-year organic sales forecast.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) – The steel producer and mining company’s stock rallied 3.5% in premarket trading after beating top and bottom-line estimates for the first quarter. Cleveland-Cliffs also raised its average selling price forecast for the full year.
Schlumberger (SLB) – The oilfield services producer beat estimates by a penny with an adjusted quarterly profit of 34 cents per share, and revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts. Schlumberger also raised its dividend by 40%, and its stock added 1.1% in premarket action.
Snap (SNAP) – Snap lost an adjusted 2 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared with consensus forecasts of a 1 cent per-share profit for the social media company. It also issued a conservative sales growth outlook for the current quarter, and the shares fell 1.1% in premarket trading.

Gap (GPS) – Gap cut its sales growth outlook amid increasing competition and more promotions. The company also announced that Old Navy President and CEO Nancy Green is departing. Gap stock tumbled 14.8% in the premarket.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) – AB InBev will sell its stake in its Russian joint venture and take a $1.1 billion impairment charge as a result. The beer brewer suspended sales of its Budweiser brand in Russia last month following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. AB InBev fell 1.8% in premarket action.
SAP (SAP) – SAP shares slid 4.1% in premarket trading after the German business software company said it would take a $300 million revenue hit due to its exit from the Russian market.
Boston Beer (SAM) – Boston Beer reported a quarterly loss of 16 cents per share, compared with analysts’ expected profit of $1.97 per share. The beer brewer’s revenue missed estimates as shipment volume declined more than 25% from a year earlier and gross margins fell as well. Shares were down 3.2% in the premarket.

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U.S. officials are concerned Russia will “monetize its natural resources” for power-intensive crypto mining to evade sanctions.
The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control targeted Russian bitcoin miner BitRiver in its latest round of sanctions.
Russia is the world’s third-biggest bitcoin mining hub, according to Cambridge University data.

Illuminated mining rigs operate inside racks at the CryptoUniverse cryptocurrency mining farm in Nadvoitsy, Russia.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Sanctions imposed on Russia over the country’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine could hamper the growth of its multibillion-dollar crypto sector, according to experts.
This week, U.S. officials targeted Russian bitcoin mining firm BitRiver in its latest round of sanctions aimed at hurting Russia’s economy. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control says it is concerned Russia may monetize its vast oil reserves and other natural resources for power-intensive crypto mining as a way to raise funds and get around western sanctions.

“This is a powerful signal from OFAC that it will use every tool in its arsenal to prevent Russia from evading sanctions through crypto,” David Carlisle, vice president of policy and regulatory affairs at crypto compliance firm Elliptic, said in an emailed note.
The sanctions will cripple BitRiver and its various subsidiaries, blocking them from accessing U.S. crypto exchanges or mining equipment. Crypto mining — the process of validating new digital currency transactions — requires specialized computers that consume lots of energy.
The move shows U.S. officials are “deeply concerned that Russia could leverage its natural resources to conduct crypto mining to evade sanctions,” something Iran and North Korea have been known to engage in the past, Carlisle said.
The potential exploitation of bitcoin production for Russian sanctions evasion remains a key concern for global regulators, including the International Monetary Fund.

“Crypto mining, while nowhere near a replacement for the assets frozen by Russian sanctions, avoids the fiat-to-crypto ‘on-ramps’ and crypto-to-fiat ‘off-ramps’ at centralized virtual currency exchanges, thereby bypassing sanctions screening,” said Anand Sithian, counsel at Crowell & Moring and a former trial attorney in the criminal division of the Department of Justice’s asset forfeiture and money-laundering section.

Russia’s crypto market

Separately, Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, said it is limiting its service for Russian users in response to the fifth wave of EU sanctions on Moscow.
Russian Binance accounts with over 10,000 euros in digital currency will be prevented from making deposits or trades and can only withdraw funds, the company said.
“While these measures are potentially restrictive to normal Russian citizens, Binance must continue to lead the industry in implementing these sanctions,” Binance said in an update on its website. “We believe all other major exchanges must follow the same rules soon.”
Russia is home to a huge cryptocurrency market. The Kremlin estimates Russians own roughly 10 trillion rubles ($124 billion) worth of digital assets.
It’s not clear where this data comes from, but there is growing evidence that Russians are turning to crypto as an alternative to the ruble as the currency crashes in response to the country’s economic isolation.
According to data from CryptoCompare, ruble-denominated crypto trading volumes reached 111.4 billion rubles ($1.4 billion) in March, much higher than in earlier months. Activity has dipped in April, with total month-to-date volume reaching only 19.2 billion rubles. Binance was the most popular exchange for ruble-crypto volume in March, accounting for 77% of trades.

In the six months ending March 2022, ruble-crypto trading volume topped 420 billion rubles, or more than $5 billion, according to CryptoCompare.

Third-biggest bitcoin mining hub

Meanwhile, Cambridge University figures show the country is a powerhouse in the field of crypto mining.
In August 2021, Russia accounted for about 11% of the global processing power used for minting new units of bitcoin, according to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, making it the third-biggest mining hub behind Kazakhstan.
Given Kazakhstan’s political unrest led to internet shutdowns that knocked bitcoin miners offline, there’s a chance Russia’s share of the sector may be even higher now.
However, there could end up being an exodus of miners from Russia to the “stans” — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — where they may “utilize stranded gas to power their operations,” Charles Hayter, CEO of CryptoCompare, told CNBC.
The Russian government has a “love-hate relationship” with digital assets, Hayter said. While Russia’s central bank is pushing for a ban on the use and mining of cryptocurrencies, President Vladimir Putin wants to regulate them instead.
According to Hayter, the Russian regime and its oligarchs “might see digital assets as a way to fund activities outside of Russia.”

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The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority warned that some challenger banks are failing to adequately assess the risk of financial crime when onboarding customers.
In some cases, challenger banks did not have customer risk assessments in place to begin with, the watchdog said.
Fintech firms are under pressure to improve their financial crime controls, particularly in the wake of sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Icons for the Monzo and Starling banking apps on a smartphone.
Adrian Dennis | AFP via Getty Images

Britain’s online-only challenger banks need to do more to prevent the abuse of their platforms by criminals, regulators have warned.
The Financial Conduct Authority on Friday published the findings of a review into financial crime controls at several U.K. challenger banks — younger banks set up with the aim of taking on incumbent lenders.

The FCA didn’t name any firms but said its review focused on six challenger banks, half of which were digital banks. Collectively, these companies covered more than 8 million customers, the watchdog said. The review excluded e-money issuers and payment services providers, like Revolut and Wise.
The regulator said it found weaknesses in challenger banks’ due diligence checks on customers, with some firms failing to adequately assess the risk of financial crime when onboarding new clients. In some cases, challenger banks did not have customer risk assessments in place to begin with, it added.
“Challenger banks are an important part of the UK’s retail banking offering,” Sarah Pritchard, executive director of markets at the FCA, said in a statement Friday.
“However, there cannot be a trade-off between quick and easy account opening and robust financial crime controls. Challenger banks should consider the findings of this review and continue enhancing their own financial crime systems to prevent harm.”
Fintech firms are under pressure to improve their financial crime controls, particularly in the wake of economic sanctions imposed on Russia over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Fintech-friendly regulations in the U.K. have allowed numerous upstart lenders including Monzo and Starling to flourish. But there’s been growing concern from regulators that some of these newer entrants may have more lax controls than those of established banks, given their platforms are designed to make applying for an account or loan faster and easier.
Going forward, the FCA said it expects challenger banks to develop their defenses against financial crime to reflect their user growth, and adapt their due diligence measures to take the heightened risk of sanctions evasion into account.
Last year, the popular app-based bank Monzo disclosed an investigation by the FCA into potential breaches of anti-money laundering laws. At the time, the firm said the probe was “at an early stage,” and that it’s cooperating with the regulator.

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Shanghai, China’s largest city, has struggled to contain a Covid outbreak and began large-scale lockdowns in late March.
In the last week, authorities announced a whitelist of 666 companies that would get priority for resumption of work.
Foreign business organizations said the list is a step in the right direction, but it’s difficult to get more than half of workers to factories due to lockdown restrictions.

Tesla’s Shanghai factory was “back up and running” as of Wednesday, according to CEO Elon Musk’s comments during a quarterly earnings call, per a StreetAccount transcript. This picture shows the factory on the outskirts of Shanghai in July 2021.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — Foreign businesses are struggling to bring workers back to factories after weeks of lockdowns in Shanghai, as the country battles its worst Covid outbreak since the pandemic began.
Nearly a month since Covid restrictions began in earnest in Shanghai, U.S. and U.K. businesses say that less than half of their employees are able to return to work.

Since March, mainland China has imposed travel restrictions and stay-home orders in economic hubs from the southern city of Shenzhen to the northern province of Jilin. The extent of Covid controls has varied by region.
Lockdowns in the southeastern metropolis of Shanghai, which began at scale in late March, have been among the most disruptive — to daily life, and to foreign businesses and their supply chains. The city accounts for about 3.8% of China’s GDP but is home to the world’s busiest port.
Last Friday, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced it sent a team to Shanghai. The ministry called for prioritizing resumption of work at 666 major businesses in industries such as chips, biopharma and auto and equipment manufacturing.
A “significant” number of members of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China are on the whitelist, particularly in sectors of manufacturing, chemicals and autos, said Bettina Schoen-Behanzin, the chamber’s vice president and Shanghai chair.
But “many companies still face the challenges of labor shortages and logistical difficulties,” she told CNBC in a statement, estimating that less than 30% of members’ workforce are eligible to return to work due to lockdowns.

[The 600-plus company whitelist] is a good first step but there are thousands of manufacturing companies in Shanghai that are shut down.

Michael Hart
President, American Chamber of Commerce in China

Being on the list means a factory could resume operations if workers live at the production site and contact is limited to people with valid negative virus tests — what’s known locally as “closed-loop management.”
“Some estimate that with the re-opening whitelist, the requirements to achieve closed-loop status may not be attainable, or maybe can only recall 30-40% of staff back to manufacturing facilities,” Matthew Margulies, senior vice president of China operations for the US-China Business Council, said in an email.
The difficulty of getting workers into factories means companies cannot easily bring in new staff for other shifts, foreign business organizations said.

Before the list was released, some companies in Shanghai and other regions subject to Covid lockdowns were able to maintain minimal operations under the closed-loop protocols.
When companies try to bring in new workers, it will usually “fail with the local communities who don’t want to let people out,” said Johan Annell, partner at Asia Perspective, a consulting firm that works primarily with Northern European companies operating in East and Southeast Asia.

The only good thing about the current situation is its so obviously unsustainable for the economy and all the companies that it will not last too long.

Johan Annell
partner, Asia Perspective

Another challenge for workers who do get permission to leave their apartments is Covid-related restrictions on travel, at which point the process of returning to work “usually fails,” he said.
Transport restrictions can also affect delivery of parts.
There’s a “fear among truck drivers, if you risk a 14-day quarantine going to that factory maybe you skip that delivery and do something else,” Annell said.
For a business to be able to operate at 30% capacity in a week or so is “a really good outcome,” he added.
“The only good thing about the current situation is its so obviously unsustainable for the economy and all the companies that it will not last too long,” he said. “I would not expect the situation to be nearly as bad as now when we come to the second half of May or June.”

Road freight plunges

Local restrictions vary from province to province, and can range from blanket travel bans to virus test requirements for drivers.
The differing measures have taken an uneven toll on businesses, whether foreign or Chinese.
A measure of China’s road freight transport turnover fell by 27.2% nationwide from April 1 to 17 from a year ago, Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu pointed out in a report Wednesday.
For Shanghai, that same transport measure plunged by 82.6% over the same time period, the report said.
China’s central government has more than once called on local authorities to support transportation services and remove constraints, such as making drivers wait for virus test results before they could move on.

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Last week, Huawei Consumer Business Group CEO Richard Yu warned in a WeChat post — akin to a Facebook update — that if work and production in Shanghai cannot resume by May, all the industrial and tech companies with supply chain ties to the region will need to stop production, especially automobiles.
Huawei confirmed the contents of Yu’s post from his personal account, which was first reported by Chinese media. Yu’s post came around the same time the government announced the whitelist.
Asked about such warnings and staffing issues, the ministry of industry told reporters Tuesday that the problems were only “temporary,” and that authorities would improve the whitelist system.
“On the one hand, we think the government does understand how important Shanghai is. On the other hand, 600 manufacturing companies — it’s a good first step but there are thousands of manufacturing companies in Shanghai that are shut down,” Michael Hart, Beijing-based president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a phone interview Wednesday.
“We had some of our companies in northern China contact us, their key suppliers in Shanghai are not among those allowed to restart,” Hart said.

What companies are saying

Foreign businesses in China have reported varying states of returning to work. Shanghai still reports new daily Covid cases of around 20,000, with and without symptoms.
Tesla’s Shanghai factory was “back up and running” as of Wednesday, according to CEO Elon Musk’s comments during a quarterly earnings call, per a StreetAccount transcript. “They really had significant challenges due to the Covid shutdowns and nonetheless have been able to output a tremendous number of high-quality vehicles.”

On the other hand, American chemicals company DuPont told CNBC late Tuesday that while most of its China manufacturing sites were operating normally or under closed-loop management, those in Shanghai remained shut.
“Our manufacturing sites in Shanghai will resume production as soon as we receive government approval and when our colleagues are allowed to leave from community health management,” the company said. “We are assessing supply chain logistics challenges and are seeking alternative routes and systems to transport products and materials to meet our customers’ needs.”
As of Monday, Volkswagen said it was evaluating how feasible it was to resume production at its plant in Anting on the outskirts of Shanghai, while its factories in the northern city of Changchun in Jilin province “have gradually resumed production.”
German chemicals giant BASF said Wednesday that its sites in Shanghai have operated under local management restrictions since late March, with some producing at reduced levels.
“There have been individual raw material supply issues, logistic disruptions and labor shortages, that are impacting our operation and business,” the company said, noting that most of its production sites in China remain in operation.

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