Finance

Take a look at some of the biggest movers in the premarket:
Splunk (SPLK) – Cisco Systems (CSCO) made a more than $20 billion takeover bid for the cloud software company, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. A deal of that size would represent the networking equipment maker’s largest-ever acquisition. Splunk surged 7.9% in the premarket, while Cisco shares fell 1%.

Blackstone (BX) – The private-equity firm finalized a $6.3 billion deal to buy Australian casino operator Crown Resorts. Shareholders are expected to vote on the transaction during the second quarter, with the deal also requiring regulatory approval. Blackstone fell 2.6% in the premarket.
Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) – Defense contractor Lockheed Martin (LMT) has abandoned its $4.4 billion deal to buy the rocket motor builder. Federal regulators had sued to block the transaction in January, amid concerns that the combination would be anti-competitive. Aerojet Rocketdyne fell 2.2% in premarket trading, while Lockheed Martin edged up 0.5%.
Rivian (RIVN) – Soros Fund Management bought nearly 20 million shares of the electric truck maker during the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the fund’s quarterly filing. The stake was worth about $2 billion at the time of purchase, but its value has fallen to about $1.17 billion. Rivian was down 1.8% in premarket trading.
Just Eat Takeaway (GRUB) – Just Eat Takeaway CEO Jitse Groen told a Dutch TV program that the food delivery company’s decision to delist from the Nasdaq should not be taken as a sign that the company intends to sell its Grubhub unit. Groen said the delisting is a cost reduction measure, but added the company is still considering options for the U.S.-based delivery service. Shares fell 1.3% in premarket action.
Eli Lilly (LLY) – Eli Lilly’s new Covid-19 antibody drug received emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration for use in adults and adolescents. The FDA had placed limitations on earlier Covid treatments after finding they were less effective against the omicron variant.

Tyson Foods (TSN) – Tyson was downgraded to “equal weight” from “overweight” at Barclays in a valuation call, with the meat and poultry producer’s stock up 12.4% so far this year. Barclays said it sees limited upside potential at current levels, with anticipation of strong quarterly results already priced in. Tyson fell 1.4% in the premarket.
Texas Instruments (TXN) – The chip maker’s stock fell 1.4% in premarket trading after Raymond James downgraded it to “market perform” from “outperform.” The firm points to unanticipated details surrounding a late-cycle increase in capital spending.
CORRECTION: This article was updated to show that the stake Soros Fund Management bought in Rivian was worth about $2 billion at the time of purchase.

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Officials at Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs seized three non-fungible tokens as part of a probe into suspected tax fraud.
NFTs are digital assets designed to track ownership of virtual items such as art and video game characters.
HMRC says it is the first law enforcement body in the U.K. to make a seizure of NFTs.

A CryptoPunk NFT on display at Sotheby’s on June 4, 2021 in New York City.
Cindy Ord | Getty Images

LONDON — Britain’s tax watchdog has seized three non-fungible tokens, in what is thought to be the first seizure of NFTs by a U.K. law enforcement agency.
Officials at Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs say they seized the NFTs during an investigation into a suspected value-added tax (VAT) fraud case worth £1.4 million ($1.9 million). Three suspects have been arrested on suspicion of attempting to defraud the taxman.

The suspects allegedly tried to claim back more VAT, which is a type of sales tax, than what they were owed, using a mix of stolen identities, unregistered phones and false invoices to hide their identities. The scheme involved 250 alleged fake companies, according to HMRC.
“Our first seizure of a Non-Fungible Token serves as a warning to anyone who thinks they can use cryptoassets to hide money from HMRC,” Nick Sharp, HMRC’s deputy director of economic crime, said in a statement Monday.

“We constantly adapt to new technology to ensure we keep pace with how criminals and evaders look to conceal their assets,” Sharp added.
NFTs are one-of-a-kind digital assets designed to track ownership of virtual items, like a work of art or video game character, on the blockchain. Blockchains are the digital ledger systems that underpin most major cryptocurrencies.
Demand for NFTs has soared lately, with sales of such tokens topping $40 billion in 2021. However, the market is prone to thefts and scams, and there are concerns that much trading activity in NFTs has been fueled by market manipulation tactics such as wash trading.

HMRC says it is the first law enforcement body in the U.K. to make a seizure of NFTs. Authorities seized three NFTs representing digital art, as well as another £5,000 in other crypto assets. The NFTs are yet to be appraised, and the probe is ongoing, HMRC said.

The news arrives just a week after U.S. officials said they had seized more than $3.6 billion in allegedly stolen bitcoins linked to the 2016 hack of cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex.
David Carlisle, head of policy and regulatory affairs at crypto compliance firm Elliptic, said the NFT seizure shows that criminals “can’t hide in the world of crypto.”
“Enforcement agencies are able to track and trace criminals’ transactions, and seize NFTs and cryptoassets used in illicit activity, robbing criminals of their profits,” he said in an emailed comment Monday.

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DBS on Monday reported its full-year net profit rose 44% to a record of 6.8 billion Singapore dollars ($5.04 billion).
Its fourth-quarter net profit rose 37% from a year ago to SG$1.39 billion.
As rate hikes are expected this year, that may spell good news in terms of better dividends for shareholders, CEO Piyush Gupta added.

Singapore’s largest lender DBS Group reported a record full-year profit for 2021, and its CEO Piyush Gupta told CNBC last year was “one of the best years” he’s seen.
“That has been a solid year, perhaps one of the best years I’ve seen in a long time. And that includes a very robust growth in the balance sheet,” Gupta told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” after the earnings numbers were out.

The bank on Monday reported that full-year net profit for 2021 rose 44% to a record of 6.8 billion Singapore dollars ($5.04 billion).
Fourth-quarter net profit rose 37% from a year ago to SG$1.39 billion ($1.03 billion). That, however, missed an average estimate of SG$1.47 billion from a Reuters poll.
Gupta also highlighted the bank’s loans growth, which jumped 9% for the year — the fastest since 2014, according to the bank.
“We had outstanding deposit growth,” he said, adding there’s been a SG$140 billion surge in the bank’s current account savings account base in the last two years.
That took its current account and savings account (CASA) ratio to total deposits to a record 76%. The metric is a measure of a bank’s profitability.

“Now, as you can imagine, that portends really well for a rising interest rate environment,” he said.

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In other highlights, DBS’ net interest margin for the year, a measure of lending profitability, fell 17 basis points to 1.45%.
The annualized dividend, to be approved at the annual general meeting in March, is set to rise 9% to SG$1.44 per share, according to DBS.
DBS shares were up 0.27% following the earnings announcement.
As rate hikes are expected this year, that may spell good news in terms of better dividends for shareholders, Piyush added.
“Of course, as rates go up, you know, we are already extremely well capitalized. And if you wind up creating even more capital through better bottom line and income growth, then there is a real likelihood that we will be able to reflect that in better payouts to our shareholders,” he told CNBC.
Singapore’s two other major banks OCBC and UOB are also set to report their fourth-quarter earnings later in February.

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CITIES HAVE often bounced back from crises. From pandemics and earthquakes to floods and fires, the world’s urban powerhouses have emerged stronger when faced with adversity. After the Great Fire of London destroyed most of the city in 1666 a raft of fire safety regulations were ushered in. Builders swapped timber for brick or stone. Walls were made thicker. Streets became wider. When cholera tore through America in the 1850s New York and other cities introduced sewage systems and public parks.Today’s urban areas face a challenge of a different sort. With the mass return to office work still uncertain, the pandemic has sharpened debate about what the future holds for their commercial hubs. Key business districts like Manhattan, the City of London, Tokyo’s Marunouchi and La Défense in Paris have borne the brunt of the office exodus. Before lockdowns the 21 largest business districts in the world housed 4.5m workers and around a fifth of the headquarters of Fortune Global 500 companies, according to EY and the Urban Land Institute. When covid-19 emptied offices around the world, most professional work shifted to home offices or kitchen tables. As the pandemic stretches into a third year, the fate of business districts remains unclear. Can they continue to attract investment and talent or will new work patterns jeopardise their commercial dominance?On the face of it, things could have been worse for the owners of gleaming city office towers. Unlike the retail and hospitality sectors, office tenants have mostly continued to pay rent and analysts have retracted many of their worst projections. Leasing activity even picked up in cities like London towards the end of 2021.The reality, however, is far from rosy. Home-working has hit demand for office space, with vacancy rates rising faster in business districts than anywhere else. Globally, unoccupied offices make up 12% of the total, up from 8% before covid. Across London 18% of offices are vacant. In New York the share is nearly 16%. More than one in five offices in San Francisco are empty. In Hong Kong, where downsizing has become common, net effective rent, which is adjusted for abatements or incentives, dropped by more than 7% in 2021 after falling more than 17% in 2020.Rather than lowering rents, landlords are offering more freebies than ever to retain tenants or attract new ones. In Manhattan, cash gifts for tenants—typically used for kitting out new office space—have more than doubled since 2016. Across America, the average number of rent-free months has risen to its highest since 2013. Some property developers remain optimistic, betting that demand for office space will eventually bounce back. But with each new variant of covid-19, plans for a wide-scale return to the office have been delayed, and delayed again. And changing patterns of attendance look set to reduce the overall demand for space.Financial markets reflect the darkening mood. Offices, particularly in business districts, are rapidly losing ground to better-performing areas of property such as warehouses and apartments. Having traditionally formed the core of commercial-property portfolios in America, offices accounted for less than a fifth of transactions in 2021. Globally, investors spent more on apartments for the first time. Foreign investment into offices also fell below the pre-pandemic average in countries such as America, Britain and Australia in 2021. By contrast, foreign investment in warehouses more than doubled in these markets.Valuations mirror the uncertainty, too. Prices of buildings in business districts have taken a hit even as commercial-property prices have boomed in other parts of cities. In San Francisco’s Financial District, for example, property prices have slumped by nearly a fifth since the end of 2019, according to the latest figures. Across the broader metropolitan area, they have increased by more than 5%. In Manhattan they have fallen by around 8% since the start of the pandemic. Asian cities have fared better. Office prices across Seoul, for instance, have risen by more than a third since the end of 2019. Most investors take a long-term view, so capital allocated to offices will be locked in for years. But sentiment is shifting away from cities with a large concentration of offices and towards smaller markets with a broader mix of buildings. A survey of investors with assets under management of more than $50bn by CBRE, a property firm, showed a preference in 2021 for markets like Phoenix and Denver over New York and Chicago. The biggest business hubs will no doubt continue to attract large sums: London’s offices are forecast to attract £60bn ($81bn) of overseas capital over the next few years, according to Knight Frank. But deserted office blocks in dense commercial districts will continue to cast an ominous shadow.Landlords insist concerns are overblown. Despite many buildings remaining stubbornly empty, they maintain that demand for the best space is holding up. True, some prime properties still attract plenty of suitors. Tenants are increasingly swapping ageing office blocks for modern, greener workplaces with better air-filtration systems and higher-quality amenities. But these high-end properties represent 20% or less of buildings in most cities. (They do, however, make up a disproportionate share of investment activity: in New York, just nine out of 69 office transactions accounted for 80% of the total amount invested in 2021.)The gap between the best assets and the rest of the market will widen further. Refurbishments may rejuvenate some tired-looking buildings. For many older assets, however, inflation, labour and materials shortages in the construction industry and the high cost of upgrading buildings to meet tougher environmental standards will make it harder to justify the expense.The consequences for business districts could be far-reaching. The mass departure of bankers, lawyers and other professionals also hurts the cafes, restaurants and other small businesses that serve them. Many were already struggling with supply-chain disruptions, labour shortages and rising costs. Lockdowns cost Sydney’s economy an estimated A$250m ($178m) a week and 40,000 jobs. Across New York City, more than a third of small businesses closed during lockdowns; before the pandemic the sector accounted for over half of private-sector jobs in the city.Civic slideMunicipal finances, too, are exposed. Dormant offices mean shrinking tax revenues for cities which rely on them to fund public services. Empty offices also put pressure on transit systems. Reduced passenger numbers are projected to leave a £1.5bn hole in the finances of London’s transport authority by 2024. Business districts are taking defensive measures. A common approach has been to make them more vibrant, a trend that was already under way before the pandemic. The City of London is proposing more “all-night cultural celebrations”, traffic-free streets on weekends and at least 1,500 new apartments by 2030, while Canary Wharf has added bars, restaurants and boating experiences to draw in younger crowds. Singapore’s Urban Redevelopment Authority concedes it may need to rethink the mix of buildings in downtown district, in addition to planning more cycle paths and pedestrianised streets. In America, skyscrapers are opening their doors to the public, offering new observation decks and Instagrammable art installations. Paris, meanwhile, plans to turn car parks in La Défense into “last-mile” delivery hubs. As the world of work evolves, commercial hubs are changing with it. More

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, January 18, 2022.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Stock futures were slightly higher Sunday evening as investors continued to monitor the developing tension between Ukraine and Russia and potential Fed rate hikes.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 83 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.05%.

The moves follow a rocky week for stocks, which were pressured by a hot inflation report and fears of a Russian attack on Ukraine. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 1% and 1.8%, respectively, for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid more than 2%.
On Friday, the Dow tumbled 503.53 points, or 1.43%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.8%. The declines came as the White House warned that a war in Ukraine could begin “any day now” and urged Americans there to leave “immediately.” Oil prices jumped Friday, along with traditional safe havens like Treasurys.
“The real fear is that China backs Russia and the relationship between China and the U.S. continues to deteriorate,” said Robert Cantwell, chief investment officer at Upholdings. “How it changes the U.S. relationships with the other economic superpowers – that’s what’s really scary and would affect economic outcome.”
A phone call over the weekend between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Biden attempted to dissuade Putin from attacking Ukraine, failed to achieve a breakthrough. 
Some airlines have also halted or redirected flights to Ukraine amid the brewing crisis, while the Pentagon ordered the departure of U.S. troops in Ukraine.

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Traders are also weighing the potential impact of surging inflation on the U.S. economy, as well as the potential measures the Federal Reserve could take to quell the jump in prices.
The Labor Department reported last week that inflation in January surged 7.5%, its biggest gain since 1982. Rate-sensitive tech stocks were hit hard by the report, which briefly sent the 10-year Treasury yield above 2% — the first time since 2019 that the 10-year traded above that level.
After the report’s release, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that he was open to a 50-basis point rate hike next month, adding that he wanted to see a full percentage point of hikes by July. To be sure, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Sunday that the central bank should take a “measured” approach when raising rates.
“This past week, the primary story was all about inflation,” Cantwell said. “Every single time the inflation number comes out, it keeps surpassing expectations and the while the Fed has signaled that it’s going to raise rates, they haven’t actually raised them. The longer they wait, the faster they’re going to have to raise them.”
Economists at Goldman Sachs also raised their Fed forecast to seven hikes for 2022, and said it sees the 10-year hitting 2.25% this year.
The firm also lowered its 2022 S&P 500 price target to 4,900 from 5,100. That would represent just a 2.8% return from where the benchmark ended 2021. Goldman said that higher rates will crimp valuations.
Earnings are expected to ramp up again this week, with Nvidia, Walmart, Shopify, AMC and more scheduled to report.

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“A GOOD COMPROMISE”, the saying goes, “is when both parties are dissatisfied.” Dissatisfaction rages in the post-lockdown economy. Households say that price-gouging companies are jacking up prices, contributing to an inflation rate across the rich world of 6.6% year on year. Companies bat such accusations aside, believing that they are the truly wronged party. They complain that staff have become workshy ingrates who demand ever-higher wages. Earlier this month Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, courted controversy by suggesting that workers should moderate their wage demands—even as he failed to tell companies not to raise their prices.A “battle of the markups”, between higher wages and higher shop prices, is under way. And there can only be one winner, all else equal. Broadly speaking, economic output must flow either to owners of capital, in the form of profits, dividends and rents, or to labour, as wages, salaries and perks. Economists refer to this as the “capital” or “labour” share of GDP. Who has the upper hand in the post-lockdown economy?The Economist has compiled a range of indicators to answer this question. First we calculate a high-frequency measure of the capital-labour share across 30 mostly rich countries. In 2020 the aggregate labour share across this group soared (see chart 1). This was largely because firms continued to pay people’s wages—helped, in large part, by government-stimulus programmes—even as GDP collapsed. Advantage, labour.More recently, however, the battle seems to have shifted in favour of capital. Since its peak in 2020 the rich-world labour share has fallen by 2.3 percentage points. Frustratingly, the data end in September 2021—and most economists anyway argue that labour’s share is not a perfect gauge of economic fairness, since it is so hard to measure. The evidence since then suggests that countries fall into one of three buckets, depending on how the battle of the markups is playing out.In the first camp is Britain. There, underlying wage growth is in the region of 5% a year, unusually fast by rich-world standards. But corporations seem not to have much pricing power, meaning that they are struggling to fully offset higher costs in the form of higher prices. Digging into Britain’s national accounts, we estimate that the nominal profit in pounds per unit of goods and services sold is only as high as it was in early 2019, even as unit labour costs are rising by about 3% per year. Labour seems to be winning out at the expense of capital. Perhaps Mr Bailey has a point.The second group consists of most other rich countries outside America. There, neither labour nor capital seems able to triumph. After correcting for pandemic-related distortions Japan’s pay growth appears to be slowing to below 1% a year, suggest data from Goldman Sachs, a bank. Pay settlements in Italy and Spain are treading water, while wage growth in Australia, France and Germany remains well below where it was before the pandemic. Workers in these places are not really joining in with the inflationary party.But businesses are not soaring either. In Europe pre-tax profit margins, as measured in the national accounts, have risen in recent months but remain below where they were just before the pandemic. In Japan the “recurring” profits before tax of large and medium-sized firms recently returned to pre-pandemic levels. The profits of smaller firms remain well below, however.In the third group sits America. Here wage growth is rapid, at about 5% a year. But as shown in their most recent financial results, big listed American firms are doing a better job at protecting margins than analysts had expected. A series of unusually large stimulus payments may mean that households are able to absorb the higher prices that companies impose. In early February Amazon said it would increase the price of its Prime membership package by 17% (even as it chose not to announce price rises in other parts of the world).Some firms are increasing their margins despite soaring costs. Tyson, an American meat producer, reported an 18% jump in the costs of its inputs in the most recent quarter compared with a year earlier, a 19.6% rise increase in its average selling prices, and a 40% rise in its adjusted operating profits. It says that escalating meat prices have not slowed demand.An economy-wide measure of corporate margins is rising fast. Dario Perkins of TS Lombard, a financial-services firm, breaks down America’s rise in unit prices since the start of the pandemic into companies’ labour costs, non-labour costs and profits. Wages are rising, but nonetheless markups are responsible for more than 70% of inflation since late 2019, he finds (see chart 2). In a recent report, analysts at Bank of America argue that greater pricing power helps explain why American equities have a higher price-earnings ratio than European ones.The story is not over yet. Some economists wonder if workers will before long demand even higher wages to compensate for higher shop prices. There is some evidence of this in America and Britain, where wage growth seems to be accelerating. Businesses’ expectations for future wage settlements remain fairly conservative, though that could soon change. If wages do start to grow more quickly, the cycle of price rises and compensating wage demands might start up all over again. Before long the post-lockdown economy could look like the ultimate compromise—where nobody is satisfied.For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, business and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly newsletter. More

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Friday the Federal Reserve is failing in its battle against a spike of inflation, and the central bank is likely to accelerate its rate hikes this year.
“One thing we can all agree on is inflation just continues to surprise on the upside. The Fed is obviously behind the curve. … It’s going to have to raise rates more than the market still thinks,” Gundlach said Friday on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” “My suspicion is they are going to keep raising rates until something breaks, which always happens.”

His comments came as inflation surged to a fresh four-decade high with the consumer price index rising 7.5% year over year. In 2020, the Fed adopted a new monetary policy framework where it seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2% over time and tolerate price rises above that level for a while.
Gundlach said he’s doubtful that the red-hot inflation will decelerate as much as the central bankers are expecting due in part to extended supply chain challenges.
“I do expect [inflation] to come down, but I think it’s going to be disappointing, the pace and the degree to which it’s going to come down,” Gundlach said. “We think inflation is very likely to print at least 5% for 2022.”

The so-called bond king forecast five interest rate hikes this year, adding there’s a 1 in 3 chance the Fed will increase rates by a larger-than-usual 50 basis points in March.
On Thursday after the release of inflation data, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he was open to a 50 basis point hike in March, or an increase of 0.5%. He also said he wanted to see a full percentage point of rate rises by July. Still, the presidents of the Atlanta, Richmond, Virginia, and San Francisco Feds pushed back against the idea of a double hike.

Gundlach said it’s going to be a “tough environment” for risk assets as the Fed embarks on its tightening cycle.
“Interest rates are going higher. Every risk asset has to reprice based upon these higher interest rates,” he said.
Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
The benchmark Treasury yield has spiked a great amount in 2022, rising almost 50 basis points from 1.51% at the end of last year. The rate topped 2% for the first time since 2019 on Thursday.Correction: In 2020, the Fed adopted a new monetary policy framework. An earlier version misstated the year.

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An Under Armour shoe is seen inside of a store on November 03, 2021 in Houston, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
Under Armour — The sports equipment company’s shares dropped 12.5% as lingering supply chain constraints clouded the firm’s outlook and overshadowed its recent performance. The company also warned that heightened freight expenses will weigh on profits in the coming months. The sell-off in the stock came even as the retailer reported fourth-quarter earnings and sales ahead of analysts’ estimates.

Newell Brands — Shares of the household products maker jumped 11% after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for its most recent quarter and issued an upbeat earnings forecast. Newell brought in an adjusted 42 cents per share for its latest quarter, beating analysts’ estimates by 10 cents.
Affirm — Shares of Affirm plunged 20.6% after Jefferies downgraded the “buy now, pay later” stock. The firm said credit normalization is will lead to increased losses and rising interest rates will pressure margins.
Monolithic Power Systems — The semiconductor company’s shares rose 4.1% after Needham upgraded the stock to a buy, saying it sees a more favorable risk/reward profile following a recent decline in share price. Needham’s $530 price target on the stock implies about 30% upside.
Zillow Group — Shares of the digital real estate platform soared 12.6% after reporting a smaller-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter. Zillow also beat revenue expectations. Those results came despite an $881 million loss on its now-shuttered home-flipping business.
Expedia — The travel services company’s shares added about 1% before turning lower after quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimates, while revenue for the period missed forecasts slightly. Expedia said it saw a big impact in travel bookings from Covid-related challenges, but they weren’t as long or as severe as in previous waves of the pandemic.

GoDaddy — Web hosting company GoDaddy saw shares jump 8.6% after it reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street forecasts and announced a $3 billion share repurchase program. For the quarter, GoDaddy earned an adjusted 52 cents per share, beating estimates by 11 cents.
Yelp — The company behind the online review site gained 4.1% after it reported quarterly earnings of 30 cents per share, which more than doubled analysts’ expectations of 14 cents per share. Yelp also recorded better-than-expected revenue driven by strength in its advertising business.
Regeneron — The pharmaceutical company saw its shares rise 3.2% after announcing an eye-injection treatment for patients with wet age-related macular degeneration has completed the second phase of a trial. Regeneron released the results from the trial.
Energy stocks — Oil and energy stocks gained on Friday as oil prices rose, after the International Energy Agency said oil markets were tight. Coterra Energy, Hess and Phillips 66 rose more than 4%. Occidental rose 5.6% and Halliburton added 3.4%.
 — CNBC’s Maggie Fitzgerald, Yun Li and Hannah Miao contributed reporting

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