Finance

Swiss giant UBS on Wednesday beat bottom line expectations amid sharp returns in investment banking.
The lender said it delivered a 32% year-on-year hike in revenues of the global markets unit of its investment banking arm, largely driven by “higher client activity in equities and FX with gains across all regions.”
Investors are keenly watching these metrics as European banks transition to an environment of monetary easing

The three keys USB logo is seen outside the London office of Swiss bank UBS in central London, on March 20, 2023.
Daniel Leal | AFP | Getty Images

wiss giant UBS on Wednesday beat bottom line expectations amid sharp returns in investment banking while warning of the global trade impact of sweeping U.S. tariffs as it seeks to rein in steep share declines.
Net profit attributable to shareholders hit $1.692 billion in the first quarter, compared with a mean forecast of $1.359 billion in a LSEG poll of analysts. Group revenue over the stretch stood at $12.557 billion, versus analyst expectations of $12.99 billion.

Other first-quarter highlights included:

Return on tangible equity reached 8.5%, versus 3.9% in the fourth quarter.
CET 1 capital ratio, a measure of bank solvency, was 14.3%, unchanged from the December quarter.

The lender said it delivered a 32% year-on-year hike in revenues of the global markets unit of its investment banking arm, largely driven by “higher client activity in equities and FX with gains across all regions.” It also achieved a 15% hike in transaction-based hike in income in its key global wealth management unit.
Speaking to CNBC’s Carolin Roth on Wednesday, UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti recognized a “challenging environment” in the first quarter, with a spate of “definitely extremely volatile” first few weeks in April that underpinned spikes in the volume of transactions that at times exceeded Covid-19 levels by 30%.

Critically, the lender posted $1.629 billion in its net interest income (NII) — the difference between earnings from loans and investments and the payments on deposits —  down 16% year-on-year and 11% from the fourth quarter, guiding for further declines in the June quarter.
“In the second quarter we expect net interest income (NII) in Global Wealth Management to decline sequentially by a low single-digit percentage, and we see a similar decline in Personal & Corporate Banking’s NII in Swiss francs. In US dollar terms, Personal & Corporate Banking’s NII is expected to increase sequentially by a mid-single-digit percentage, based on current foreign exchange rates,” UBS said.

Investors are keenly watching these metrics as European banks transition to an environment of monetary easing, particularly in Switzerland, which has been combating a strong franc and depressed inflation with interest rates as low as 0.25%.
Ermotti said he is “not overly concerned” about interest rate movements.
“I think that we are now in a situation where it’s almost like a neutral, fairly boring zone,” he noted. “If rates go up or down from here in Swiss francs, then we’re going to see a potential pick up in NII. But it’s premature to talk about if and when this will materialize.”
Separately, UBS on Wednesday confirmed it had completed $500 million in share buybacks and intended to press ahead with a $2.5 billion repurchase plan for the remainder of 2025.
“Overall a decent set of results, albeit boosted by non-core gains and heightened trading activity in both IB and GWM, all of which may not be sustainable, whereas NII has missed expectations again,” Citi analysts said in a Wednesday note after UBS reported.
The lender’s shares were up 1.64% at 08:30 a.m. London time.

Tariff outlook

Deposed this month as continental Europe’s largest bank by market capitalization by Banco Santander, UBS has suffered share declines of roughly 10% in the year to date, with the brunt of losses logged after the White House’s imposition of tariffs on global trade partners on April 2.
Switzerland faces a 31% duty if it fails to agree a more conciliatory trade deal by the end of Washington’s 90-day reprieve in early July. Comparatively, the European Union was hit with 20% in U.S. levies.
Tensions with Washington and a potential recessionary outlook for the world’s largest economy spell trouble for the Swiss banking giant and its money-spinning global wealth management division, with around half of UBS’ invested assets concentrated in the broader Americas region last year.

“Rapid and significant changes to trade tariffs, heightened risk of escalation and significantly increased macroeconomic uncertainty led to major market volatility in the first weeks of April,” UBS said Wednesday. “With a wide range of possible outcomes, the economic path forward is particularly unpredictable. The prospect of higher tariffs on global trade presents a material risk to global growth and inflation, clouding the interest rate outlook.”
It flagged the possibility of “further spikes in volatility” as markets remain sensitive to new tariffs-led developments, noting that “Prolonged uncertainty would affect sentiment and cause businesses and investors to delay important decisions on strategy, capital allocation and investments.”
“You look at the last 10 days or so, I think there is a little bit of fatigue coming in. I think that investors are now waiting in a wait-and-see mode. Markets have settled down … people are waiting for significant news,” UBS’ Ermotti told CNBC. “But I do expect spikes of volatilities to come back as positive or negative news unfold.”
The picture of UBS’ long-term profitability remains darkened by questions over potential new — and more draconian — capital requirements from Swiss authorities, which have questioned the Swiss titan’s “too big to fail” status since its absorption of collapsed domestic rival Credit Suisse. The transaction — which one politician at the time dubbed the “deal of the century” — has propelled UBS down the path of maximum resistance against further restrictions, which it argues would undermine its competitiveness as an already adequately capitalized entity.

“UBS’s lobbying is both visible and unmistakable. It’s clearly resonating in various places. But once again: the Federal Council cannot be intimidated by lobbying, but must also represent the interests of taxpayers,” Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter told broadcaster SRF last month, according to a Google translation.
“The Federal Council has one goal: that in the event of a crisis, a UBS that is systemically important is resolvable. This means that the systemically important parts of the bank can be separated in Switzerland. That must be the goal of the Federal Council and the new legislation.”
UBS is expected to engage with the Swiss Federal Council over any proposed capital requirement changes in June.
Speaking about UBS’ odds of competitiveness in the broader Swiss regulatory environment, Ermotti said, “We are not magicians. We are not going to be able to be competitive and provide and be an engine of growth for the financial center, but also for the economy, if the regulatory framework is not competitive.” More

British bank Barclays’ pre-tax profit came in at £2.7 billion ($3.6 billion), up 11% year-on-year and ahead of analyst expectations of £2.49 billion.
CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, Barclays CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan said he was expecting “fairly high market volatility” as a result of U.S. trade policy going forward.
He added that the lender was prepared for a range of scenarios, including economic slowdowns in the U.K. or U.S.

British bank Barclays on Wednesday reported slight beats on the top and bottom line in the first quarter, boosted by stronger investment bank performance.
Pre-tax profit came in at £2.7 billion ($3.6 billion), up 11% year-on-year and ahead of analyst expectations of £2.49 billion, according to LSEG. Group revenues hit £7.7 billion, above an analyst projection of £7.33 billion.

Income from investment banking, its most profitable division, increased 16% to £3.87 billion.
Barclays’ return on tangible equity, a measure of profitability, reached 14 % in the first quarter, after averaging 7.5% in the December quarter.
Shares were 2% higher in early deals in London.
Key to investors is how Barclays navigates its sizable U.S. exposure in the market storm unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs. Notably, Barclays has had a significant presence Stateside since acquiring the investment banking and capital markets businesses of collapsed Wall Street titan Lehman Brothers for $1.75 billion.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, Barclays CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan said he was expecting “fairly high market volatility” going forward.

“It’s calmer now but I imagine it will continue to go up and down. Beyond that, as you’ve seen in our results, that market volatility helps us help clients manage their risk, we can do so in a profitable way that helps them as well and helps markets income, as long as you manage your risk well,” he said, pointing to strong fixed income trading as a highlight from the earnings.
Venkatakrishnan continued, “I think, going forward, the longer this goes on, the greater economic uncertainty there is, which is putting companies off from making decisions. Individuals also take time to make decisions, you could have a risk of a slowdown in economic activity.”
“Even though we have a good starting point, we have to be prepared” for a range of scenarios, he told CNBC, including economic weakness in its major markets of the U.K. and the U.S.
The British lender’s U.S. consumer bank business has made strides, delivering a 9.1% return on tangible equity in 2024, from 4.1% in 2023. Income at the unit nudged 1% higher to £864 million in the first quarter, though profit before tax slid 7% to £55 million.

Stock chart icon

Barclays share price.

In a Wednesday note, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said the pre-tax profit beat was driven by income but partially offset by higher than expected impairments.
The bank’s exposure to the U.S. consumer and investment banking is likely to weigh on the stock more than on other U.K. banks until the “rhetoric around global trade wars subsides,” they added.
Barclays shares took a steep tumble as the White House kicked off its trade war on April 2, but recovered thereafter and remain up more than 10% in the year to date — in sharp contrast to Swiss giant UBS, whose U.S. foothold and domestic concerns have led to a hemorrhage in stock value.
Barclays’ core U.K. consumer bank unit meanwhile posted 12% higher income of £484 million and 23% higher pre-tax profit of £207 million, supported by its acquisition of Tesco Bank.
Britain could receive a rare economic boon as a result of its divorce from the European Union, after the bloc was struck with 20% in — now briefly suspended — U.S. reciprocal tariffs in early April. London, which only faces 10% in such White House levies, is now attempting to leverage its historic transatlantic relationship and a broadly more balanced trade record with the U.S. to secure a sweeter commercial arrangement. However, a wider slowdown in global trade and growth is expected to weigh on the economy.
Barclays’ pressures at homes have eased, with behemoth HSBC announcing plans to wind down its M&A and equity capital markets businesses in the U.K., U.S. and Europe amid a revamp of its investment operations. And the British unit of Spanish lender Banco Santander — which dethroned UBS to become continental Europe’s largest bank by market capitalization in recent weeks — in March said that 750 of its staff were at risk of redundancy, as it targets 95 branch closures as part of a broader plan to update its footprint from June 2025.
While Santander insists that the U.K. remains a “core market,” the latest move has added to questions whether the Spanish lender intends to exit the British high street. More

Britain is at risk of losing budding fintech and cryptocurrency entrepreneurs to rival hubs if it doesn’t work to address pressing challenges with regulation and funding, industry leaders say.
The country’s finance watchdog has faced criticisms that it’s become too restrictive of companies seeking to shake up the financial services landscape with digital technology.
“I think the U.K. will get it right — but there is a risk if you get it wrong that you drive innovation to other markets,” Keith Grose, Coinbase’s U.K. head, told CNBC.

Workers cross a junction near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, UK, on Tuesday, April 8, 2025. 
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LONDON — Britain is at risk of losing budding fintech and cryptocurrency entrepreneurs to rival hubs if it doesn’t address pressing regulation and funding challenges, according to industry leaders.
Several crypto bosses told CNBC this week that the U.K. has created an unfavorable environment for fintech and crypto. They argued that the local regulator takes too strict an approach to registering new firms, and that pension funds managing trillions of pounds are too risk-averse

Whereas a decade ago the U.K. was seen as being at “the forefront in terms of promoting competitiveness and innovation,” today things “have shifted more towards prioritizing safety and soundness to an extent where growth has been held behind,” according to Jaidev Janardana, CEO of British digital bank Zopa.
“If I look at the speed of innovation, I do feel that the U.S. is ahead — although they have their own challenges. But look at Singapore, Hong Kong — again, you see much more rapid innovation,” Janardana told CNBC. “I think we are still ahead of the EU, but we can’t remain complacent with that.”

Tim Levene, CEO of venture capital firm Augmentum Fintech, said entrepreneurs face challenges attracting funding in the U.K. and could be tempted to start their founding journeys in other regions, like Asia and the Middle East.
“We’re scrambling around looking for pots of capital in the U.K., where currently it would be more fruitful to go to the Gulf, to go to the U.S., to go to Australia, or elsewhere in Asia, and that that doesn’t feel right,” Levene told CNBC.
Lisa Jacobs, CEO of business lending platform Funding Circle, said that the negative impacts of Brexit are still being felt by the U.K. fintech industry — particularly when it comes to attracting overseas talent.

“I think it is right that we’re paranoid about other locations,” she told CNBC. “It is right that we are trying to — as an industry, as government — make the U.K. still that great place to set up. We have all the ingredients there, because we’ve got the ecosystem, we do have this talent setting up new businesses. But it needs to continue. We can’t rest on our laurels.”

Crypto rules unclear

The U.K. is home to a vibrant financial technology sector, with firms like Monzo and Revolut among those scaling to become challengers to traditional banks.
Industry insiders attribute their rapid rise in part to innovation-friendly rules that allowed tech startups to apply for — and secure — licenses to offer banking and electronic money services with greater ease.

Businesses operating in the world of crypto are frustrated that the same hasn’t happened yet for their industry.
“Other jurisdictions have started to seize the opportunity,” Cassie Craddock, U.K. and Europe managing director at blockchain firm Ripple, told CNBC.
The U.S., for example, has adopted a more pro-crypto stance under President Donald Trump, with the Securities and Exchange Commission dropping several high-profile legal cases against major crypto businesses.
The EU, meanwhile, has led the way when it comes to laying out clear rules for the industry with its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation.
“The U.S. is driving global tailwinds for the industry,” Craddock said, adding: “MiCA came into force in the EU at the end of last year, while Singapore, Hong Kong and the UAE are moving full steam ahead with pro-industry reforms,” she added.
The U.K. on Tuesday laid out draft proposals for regulating crypto firms — however, industry insiders say the devil will be in the detail when it comes to addressing more complex technical issues, such as reserve requirements for stablecoins.

Rules on stablecoins unclear

One area in particular where fintech and crypto leaders alike want to see more clarity is stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency whose value is pegged to that of a sovereign currency.
Mark Fairless, CEO of payments infrastructure firm ClearBank, told CNBC that his business has been looking to develop its own stablecoin — but it’s been held back from launching one because of a lack of regulatory clarity.
Stablecoins are “part of our medium-term, longer-term strategy,” Fairless told CNBC. “We see ourselves well set up for that.” However, he added that a ClearBank stablecoin will only be possible when there’s regulatory certainty in the U.K. The startup is awaiting approval from the Bank of England.
Crypto industry insiders also say the FCA has been too restrictive when it comes to approving registrations from digital asset firms. The FCA is the regulator responsible for registering firms that want to provide crypto services within the scope of money laundering regulations in the U.K.
Last year, the watchdog published a roadmap detailing its plan to implement crypto regulation. The roadmap includes a series of discussion papers on topics ranging from stablecoins to crypto lending over the next two years. A full regulatory regime is expected to go live by 2026.

Another issue faced by crypto companies is that of being “debanked” by high street banks, according to Keith Grose, head of U.K. at Coinbase.
“Debanking is a huge issue — you can’t get bank accounts if you’re a company or individual who works in crypto,” Keith Grose, Coinbase’s U.K. head, told CNBC. “You can’t build the future of the financial system here if we don’t have that level playing field.”
A survey by Startup Coalition, Global Digital Finance and the U.K. Cryptoasset Business Council of more than 80 crypto firms published in January found that half were denied bank accounts or had existing ones closed by major banks.
“I think the U.K. will get it right — but there is a risk if you get it wrong that you drive innovation to other markets,” Coinbase’s Grose told CNBC.
“This is such a fast developing space — stablecoins grew 300% last year. They’re already doing more volume than Visa and Mastercard,” he added. “I think if you deliver smart regulation here, stablecoins can be a foundational part of our payment ecosystem in the U.K. going forward.” More

To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5, at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

Over President Donald Trump’s first 100 days, the S&P 500 lost more than 7% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 11%.
On a sector basis, consumer staples is the biggest gainer in that time period, up 5%. Consumer discretionary lost the most value, off 13%.

We asked the “Fast Money” traders to share which market areas should see the most promise — and problems — over the next 100 days.
No. 1: Karen Finerman
Most promise: Big cap pharma. She’s bullish because the group is “way oversold,” and it’s largely out of the tariff crossfire.
Most problems: Container space. It’s likely seeing benefits right now from a big pull forward in demand. If the tariff fight takes a while to get resolved, expect to see fewer containers and a reduction in full containers overall, making for a “very sad income statement.”

Arrows pointing outwards

No. 2: Tim Seymour

Most promise: Semiconductors and international investing. In the case of semis, they’re the “ultimate cyclicals” and should be a buying opportunity built off of beaten-down valuations. He predicts supply and demand dynamics will “rage again” in the year’s second half.
Seymour is also bullish on international investing. His name for it: MIGA, an acronym for “Make International Great Again.”
He highlights Germany’s DAX index outperforming the S&P 500 since late November. According to Seymour, it’s a trade that should still work over at least the next 100 days because tariffs are both a wake-up call and tailwind.
He lists relative valuation attractiveness and “Magnificent Seven” exhaustion among other key upside drivers.
The Mag 7 index, which is comprised of Apple, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla, is down almost 16% over President Trump’s first 100 days.
Most problems: Companies exposed to consumer credit and discretionary spending. Seymour expects U.S. consumers to tighten their belts due to high prices and a deteriorating jobs market.
No. 3: Dan Nathan
Most promise: “Cash will be king.”
Nathan sees little working. He notes defensive groups including utilities, consumer staples and U.S. Treasurys, which historically benefit during economic distress, will eventually slump. According to Nathan, the headwinds produced by a tariff-induced recession will punish them.
Most problems: Planes, trains and automobiles. His base case scenario is a “protracted trade war” with China and possibly other key nations that will choke demand. Nathan advises consumers to “fasten their seatbelts for unexpected turbulence and bumps in the road.
No. 4: Guy Adami
Most promise: Retail. Most problems: Retail.
He thinks retail is in an odd spot. According to Adami, there’s “no way to game this out, but they seemingly have the most at stake.”
He told “Fast Money” on Tuesday that the unemployment rate will likely surprise to the upside.
“When you have an economy that’s predicated on people having jobs and feeling good about things… that becomes problematic,” Adami told viewers. “I think the market is still a little expensive here.”
Disclosure: Tim Seymour runs the Amplify CWP International Enhanced Dividend Income ETF.
Disclaimer More

Five years ago, when the pandemic shut down the global economy, frazzled economists turned to novel measures, such as mobility data and restaurant bookings, to track the closure in real time. Now the world is desperate to assess the damage caused by Donald Trump’s swingeing tariffs on Chinese imports, and pundits are again using innovative techniques. Their findings suggest the world’s biggest economy is not reeling yet. But trouble is coming. More

Five years ago, when the pandemic shut down the global economy, frazzled economists turned to novel measures, such as mobility data and restaurant bookings, to track the closure in real time. Now the world is desperate to assess the damage caused by Donald Trump’s swingeing tariffs on Chinese imports, and pundits are again using innovative techniques. Their findings suggest the world’s biggest economy is not reeling yet. But trouble is coming. More

The S&P 500 have tended to experience significant gains in the year following periods of high volatility as measured by the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, a new analysis shows.
Volatility creates a “potential opportunity,” Edward Lee, an investment strategy analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in an analysis.

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., April 28, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Periods of extreme volatility in the stock market may feel painful for investors — but such periods are generally followed by strong stock returns, if history is a guide, according to market analysts.
In that sense, many investors would be wise not to sell stocks — and should perhaps even buy more, analysts said.

The VIX index, also known at the Wall Street fear gauge, measures the market’s estimate of expected volatility in the S&P 500 stock index.
When the VIX has spiked to a level above 40 — indicating “significant” volatility — the S&P 500 has been up 30% a year later, on average, according to a Wells Fargo Investment Institute analysis of the market from January 1990 to April 16, 2025.
The odds of stock returns being positive 12 months later were also above 90% during these periods, the analysis found.

In other words, volatility creates a “potential opportunity,” Edward Lee, a Wells Fargo investment strategy analyst, wrote in the analysis on Monday.
“Concern is normal, but history has taught us that periods of higher volatility have historically led to higher returns,” Lee wrote.

So, why is there a greater probability of positive and higher stock returns relative to periods of lower volatility?
Volatility “tends to coincide with times of high drawdowns and investor panic, both of which lead to higher probabilities of investing success of the next 12 months,” Lee wrote in an e-mail.

Stock volatility spikes on Trump tariff news

Stock volatility spiked in early April after President Donald Trump announced unexpectedly high country-specific tariffs, and the S&P 500 sold off almost 11% in two days.
The VIX reached about 53, among the top 1% closes for that index in history, Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, wrote last week.
More from Personal Finance:Is now a good time to buy gold?Trump-fueled backlash ‘intensified’ flight from ESG fundsWhy tariffs will hurt low income Americans more than rich
But low expectations often lead to “relief rallies,” when people pile back into stocks because the initial news isn’t quite as bad as they thought, Cox wrote.
For example, since 1990, about half of the S&P 500’s 14 selloffs of 10% or more ended within a week of the VIX’s highest close, and three ended on the day of its highest close, Cox wrote.
Such selloffs are usually “V-shaped,” meaning there’s a sharp downturn and then a quick rebound, she said in an interview with CNBC.

However, things could be different this time around, she said.
“We’re [still] trying to figure out where the new center of gravity is” with trade policy, Cox said.
“The unexpected news part of the sell-off is probably past us, and if you are a long-term investor, now is probably the time to start buying,” Cox said. “But you can’t expect this to be the bottom of the sell-off. And history isn’t always gospel.” More

U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves on Tuesday announced plans for a “comprehensive regulatory regime for crypto assets.”
The U.K.’s Treasury published draft rules aimed at bringing crypto exchanges, dealers and agents into the regulatory fold.
Reeves said that the the U.K. planned to deepen regulatory cooperation with the U.S. to boost “responsible” adoption of digital assets.

Romain Costaseca | Afp | Getty Images

LONDON — Britain on Tuesday published draft legislation for the cryptocurrency industry, touting greater collaboration with the U.S. as it looks to regulate the wild world of digital assets.
Speaking at a fintech event Tuesday, U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced plans for a “comprehensive regulatory regime for crypto assets,” adding that the proposals would aim to make the country a “world leader in digital assets.”

The rules will bring crypto exchanges, dealers and agents into the regulatory fold, “cracking down on bad actors while supporting legitimate innovation,” the U.K.’s Treasury department said in a statement released following Reeves’ remarks.
“Crypto firms with UK customers will also have to meet clear standards on transparency, consumer protection, and operational resilience — just like firms in traditional finance,” the Treasury’s statement added.

Reeves said that the U.K. planned to deepen regulatory cooperation with the U.S. to boost “responsible” adoption of digital assets. “For the U.K. to be a world leader in digital assets, international cooperation is vital,” she told attendees at fintech industry group Innovate Finance’s annual summit.
The U.K. finance minister met with her U.S. counterpart Scott Bessent last week to discuss a trade deal. She had previously said that improving business ties with the European Union was “arguably even more important.”
“Regulation must support business, not hold it back,” Reeves said Thursday.

Crypto industry insiders say the Financial Conduct Authority — which is the U.K.’s financial services watchdog — has been too restrictive when it comes to approving registrations from digital asset firms.
The FCA is the regulator responsible for registering firms that want to provide crypto services within the scope of money laundering regulations in the U.K. More