Finance

The number of hourly employees who worked a shift in the month between mid-July and mid-August fell about 4%, according to Homebase data. The number of open small businesses declined 2.5%.
The trends mark a reversal from their prior trajectories, suggesting the Covid-19 delta variant is negatively affecting the economy, according to Homebase CEO John Waldmann.

Michael Lee | Moment | Getty Images

Fewer small businesses were open and hourly employees working in August from July, indicating that the Covid-19 delta variant may be dampening the U.S. economic recovery, according to data from Homebase, which supplies employee scheduling software to employers.
The number of employees working dropped 4% in mid-August versus mid-July, according to Homebase, which analyzed trends among roughly 60,000 businesses and 1 million hourly employees. The share of businesses with their doors open also fell 2.5% over that period.

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The monthly shifts are noteworthy since the economic metrics have generally been on an upward trajectory since April, according to John Waldmann, the company’s founder and CEO.
“The leading indicators here of Main Street health and hourly employment are showing a real change from the trends earlier in the summer, and what seems to be a very clear impact of the delta variant on the economy,” he said.

Delta variant

Covid cases, hospitalizations and deaths have climbed steadily through July and August, fueled by the delta variant and largely occurring among unvaccinated individuals.
By the end of August, there were roughly 150,000 new Covid cases a day on average, up from about 14,000 on July 1, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. New cases seem to have leveled off in recent days.

Virus-related deaths also nearly quadrupled over that period, to almost 1,000 a day, on average, from 226, according to the CDC.
About 63% of U.S. adults are fully vaccinated, according to CDC data. That’s true for about 52% of the total population, including kids.

Consumer confidence

Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, partly on virus fears.
In July, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index had been at its highest level since the initial Covid outbreak in early 2020, according to Jim Baird, certified financial planner and chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Michigan.
“The emergence of the delta variant has cast a shadow on that optimism, creating a growing recognition that the risk presented by Covid-19 is not yet in the rear-view mirror,” Baird said.
The delta variant may impact employees and businesses in a few ways, Waldmann said. Consumer foot traffic and demand may fall if customers try to limit their in-person activities; businesses may respond to any in-house virus cases by reducing staffing or temporarily closing their doors, he said.

All states except Arizona, Maine and South Dakota saw an employment decline in August, as measured by the number of hourly workers with at least one clock-in, according to Homebase. The monthly decline was largest in the Southeast region — a 5.6% loss, more than double the 2.3% drop in New England, according to Homebase.
The decline in worker numbers has affected certain industries harder than others. In entertainment and hospitality, for example, the figures fell by 35% and 20%, respectively, from their July peaks, according to Homebase.
Meanwhile, private-sector jobs jumped by 374,000 in August, according to payroll provider ADP, well below the Dow Jones estimate of 600,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly jobs report on Friday.
The U.S. economy is still down almost 6 million jobs versus pre-pandemic levels.

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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau proposed a rule around small business credit on Wednesday aimed at enhancing data reporting for lenders.
The rule would increase transparency around pricing, demographics and reasons for a loan denial. It would apply broadly, to credit cards, lines of credit, term loans and merchant lines of credit, for example.
The CFPB wants to better understand the barriers entrepreneurs may face when applying for a loan.

Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau proposed a rule Wednesday to raise transparency around loans for small businesses.
If finalized, the federal agency’s rule would require lenders to collect and report more data about credit applications from small businesses, including demographic and pricing data and reasons for which lenders deny a loan.

The rule would help regulators learn how entrepreneurs fare when trying to access financing and what barriers may prevent them from doing so, according to Dave Uejio, the CFPB’s acting director.
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The proposal applies to a broad range of credit, including term loans, lines of credit, credit cards and merchant cash advances. The public has 90 days to submit comment on the proposal.
“After homeownership, small business ownership is the primary means by which families and communities build wealth,” Uejio said. “Yet too often, small business development is starved for want of access to responsible, fairly priced credit.”

The Covid-19 pandemic exposed adverse economic effects when policymakers don’t have enough data to properly target credit, according to the CFPB. Many entrepreneurs struggled to access Covid relief funds, like those available through the Paycheck Protection Program, through certain banks, the agency said.

The bureau also announced Wednesday the creation of a web portal that small businesses can use to share stories with the regulator about applying for credit.
Correction: The CFPB announced Wednesday the creation of a web portal that small businesses can use to share stories with the regulator about applying for credit. An earlier version misstated the day.

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Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:
Campbell Soup (CPB) – The food producer beat top and bottom-line estimates for its latest quarter, earning an adjusted 55 cents per share and beating consensus by 7 cents. It issued a fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings outlook of $2.75-$2.85 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.87, as it deals with higher input costs and a constrained labor market. Shares were initially up more than 1% in premarket trading but subsequently trimmed those gains.

PVH (PVH) – PVH reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, well above the $1.20 consensus estimate, while the apparel maker’s revenue topped forecasts as well. The company behind the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands also raised its full-year revenue forecast. PVH shares surged 7.8% in the premarket.
Ambarella (AMBA) – Ambarella rallied 9.1% in premarket trading after it came in 10 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 35 cents per share. Revenue also beat analyst projections. The maker of chips for cars and cameras said demand is high and that revenue could reach a 5-year high for the current quarter.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) – CrowdStrike beat Street forecasts by 2 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 11 cents per share, while revenue came in above estimates as well. The cybersecurity company also raised its full-year outlook, but shares fell 2.2% in premarket action.
Philips (PHG) – Philips received permission from the FDA to begin repairing and replacing its DreamStation respiratory devices after the agency approved its proposal for replacing sound abatement material. The Dutch technology company issued a recall in June for up to 4 million of the devices to fix a potential toxicity problem with sound abatement foam. Philips gained 2.3% in the premarket.
Sunrun (RUN) – The solar energy company’s stock jumped 3.6% in the premarket following two positive analyst mentions. It was added to the U.S. Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan Chase, and it was also among clean energy stocks rated “market overweight” in new coverage at Wolfe Research. Wolfe said the clean energy transition is a secular trend that will last well past the current economic cycle.

Nio (NIO) – The China-based electric vehicle maker’s shares slid 4.6% in premarket trading after it cut its third-quarter delivery outlook, citing supply chain constraints.
Intuit (INTU) – Intuit is in talks to buy e-mail marketing firm Mailchimp for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. Such a deal would add to the personal finance software company’s tools for small businesses, which include QuickBooks and Credit Karma.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) – Southwest pilots are suing the airline over changes made to working conditions as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold. The pilots contend those changes should have been subject to bargaining with its union, while the company said such bargaining was not required.
Canadian National Railway (CNI) – Canadian National will not be allowed to use a temporary voting trust as part of its $30 billion deal to buy Kansas City Southern (KSU), following a ruling from the Surface Transportation Board. That could present a significant obstacle to completing the deal, and another opportunity for Canadian Pacific Railway (CP), which has also offered to buy Kansas City Southern.
Sprouts Farmers Markets (SFM) – Sprouts said its Chief Financial Officer Denise Paulonis is leaving the natural foods supermarket chain, with board member Lawrence Molloy succeeding Paulonis on Sept. 25.

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DON HORTON, founder of America’s largest homebuilder, never thought he would have to turn away business in Texas. Until recently he could not build homes in the state fast enough. Now his firm is restricting sales as industry-wide shortages of labour and building materials such as timber slow construction and inflate costs. The combination of these constraints and surging demand for housing has led to staggering rises in house prices. According to figures published on August 31st the Case-Shiller national house-price index was 18.6% higher in June than a year earlier—the third record-breaking rise in as many months (see chart). But although the shortages of materials are expected to ease next year, skilled labour will be harder to find.As covid-19 spread and countries locked down, the construction workforce took a big hit. In America it shrank by nearly 15% in 2020, wiping out four years of job gains. But it has yet to recover fully, even as demand for housing has been turbo-charged by low interest rates and enthusiasm for bigger homes. Around 88% of American contractors say they are struggling to find workers, leaving nearly 300,000 roles vacant. Having decelerated in 2020, wage growth is now picking up. Britain has the most vacancies in two decades, with two-thirds of construction firms finding it difficult to hire bricklayers and carpenters. Half of all French construction firms report facing difficulties with recruitment, making it the country’s worst-affected sector, and a fifth of German building and civil-engineering companies say they lack skilled workers. The industry’s hiring struggles in part mirror the wider labour shortages affecting much of the rich world. As in other sectors, a fear of the virus and an ability to fall back on benefits and savings might explain why the unemployed have been slow to return to work. Travel restrictions across national and provincial borders to curb the pandemic have hit the construction sector, which is heavily reliant on migrants, especially hard. (That has been starkest in China and India, where migrants account for four-fifths and one-third of construction workers, respectively.)Long-standing factors are also contributing to the construction labour shortages. Homebuilders have struggled to maintain a consistent labour force since the global financial crisis of 2007-09. That in part reflects deeper changes to immigration laws, which have stemmed a once-steady stream of labour. Inflows of foreign workers into America, for instance, have been in decline since the introduction of anti-immigration policies by President Donald Trump. Just over 44,000 foreign-born workers entered the construction industry in 2017, a sharp drop compared with nearer 70,000 in the previous year. Similarly, Britain has lost 42% of its European construction workers, according to the Office for National Statistics, since it voted to leave the European Union, which signalled an end to the free movement of migrants from the EU into the country. Skills shortages are also compounded by an ageing workforce. Around 41% of construction workers in America are expected to retire within the next decade. One in five British workers is over the age of 55. Recruiters seeking talent, meanwhile, find slim pickings. High-school graduates of all income backgrounds avoid construction jobs, perceiving them to be dirty, dangerous and difficult. Less than one in ten young people in Britain would consider a career in construction, shunning even white-collar jobs in areas such as engineering, quantity surveying and town planning.Automation might have been one way to avert shortages of workers. But the industry has been slow to embrace it. Around half of construction businesses use robots, compared with 84% of automotive firms and 79% of manufacturing companies.Meanwhile, the shortages seem set only to intensify. Demand for workers looks likely to rise further, as governments promise both to build more houses and to help prepare the existing stock for a changing climate. Britain already requires 217,000 extra workers by 2025 to meet the government’s target of 300,000 new homes per year. Even more skills will be needed to retrofit 29m existing homes to meet the country’s net-zero carbon target by 2050. Governments’ plans to spend on infrastructure in America and Europe could suck in workers and leave fewer to build houses. Job vacancies, construction delays, bosses’ headaches—all may go through the roof. ■ More

The Economist is looking to hire a writer to join its economics team. Journalistic experience is not necessary. The ability to write clearly and entertainingly is, however, crucial, as is a thorough understanding of economics and the ability to work with data. At first the writer will cover Europe. We would prefer the job to be based in London at least at first, but the successful candidate need not be British.Applicants should send a CV and a sample article, suitable for publication in The Economist, to: [email protected] Your article could be on macro- or microeconomics, or on political economy; it need not be about Europe. It should be unpublished and no longer than 700 words. Some examples of our economics coverage are listed below. The deadline is October 17th.Example economics coverageWhat does the ECB’s new target mean in practice?The EU proposes a carbon tariff on some importsDoes perishable e-money represent the future of fiscal stimulus?Will surprisingly high global inflation last?What history tells you about post-pandemic boomsHow an auction is helping Britain’s turtle dovesAmerica’s banks have too much cashThis article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Wanted: a new economics writer” More

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Aug. 3, 2021.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. stock futures opened slightly higher Tuesday night after the S&P 500 notched a seven-month win streak in August.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 36 points, or 0.10%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.11% and 0.05%, respectively.

In regular trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39.11 points, or 0.11%, to close at 35,360.73. The S&P 500 lost 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped by 0.04%.
The major averages all finished higher for the month of August. The S&P 500 rose 2.9% for the month, rising for the seventh month in a row. The Nasdaq Composite gained about 4% and while the Dow lagged, it still added 1.2%.
Some strategists are on the lookout for a correction in September given that stocks haven’t had a significant one since last October, combined with the highly anticipated meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank in September and the continued worry about the delta Covid variant.
“Although this bull market has laughed at nearly all the worry signs in 2021, let’s not forget that September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Even last year, in the face of a huge rally off the March 2020 lows, we saw a nearly 10% correction in the middle of September.”
He added any weakness could be short-term and contained in the 5-8% range.

“This bull market is alive and well and we would view any potential weakness as an opportunity,” he said.
Investors are focused on August U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which is scheduled to be released later this week, for insight into the possible path of Fed monetary policy. Dow Jones economists expect 750,000 jobs were created in August and the unemployment rate fell to 5.2%.
Campbell Soup is scheduled to report earnings before the bell Wednesday. Brown-Forman will report after the bell.

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A general view of the atmosphere at the TommyXZendaya collection launch event at the Tommy Hilfiger store on March 3, 2019 in London, England. (Photo by David M. Benett/Dave Benett/Getty Images for Tommy Hilfiger)
David M. Benett | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines after the bell.
CrowdStrike Holdings — Shares of the cybersecurity tech firm fell about 3.5% despite reporting quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ estimates. CrowdStrike recorded earnings of 11 cents per share and $337.7 million in revenue. Goldman Sachs reiterated the stock as a buy on Tuesday.

Ambarella — Semiconductor design company Ambarella jumped 8% after reporting quarterly earnings of 35 cents per share, beating analysts’ estimates by 10 cents, and revenue of $79.3 million, compared to the forecast of $75.7 million. The company, whose imaging solutions have supported products from Apple, GoPro and others, also gave strong third-quarter revenue guidance.
PVH Corp — The owner of American apparel brands like Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein saw its stock rise 6% after reporting quarterly results. PVH recorded $2.72 per share, beating estimates by $1.52, and revenue of $2.31 billion, versus the $2.14 billion expected. The CEO noted Tuesday that North American sales are expected to remain challenging as tourism levels continue to struggle to recover from the pandemic. Still, the company gave strong third-quarter guidance on earnings and revenue.
Western Digital — Shares of the data storage and information technology company rose 1.27% in extended trading. The stock spiked last week following a report that the company is in talks to merge with Japan’s Kioxia Holdings in a $20 billion-plus deal and has remained higher despite a slight pullback.

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Consumers have lost $545 million to Covid-related fraud since the beginning of 2020, according to FTC data.
Online shopping scams have impacted the largest number of people, while vacation and travel scams have been the most costly, according to the agency.

Visoot Uthairam | Moment | Getty Images

Scammers have bilked Americans out of $545 million in Covid-related fraud since the beginning of 2020 in a range of schemes from online shopping to travel, according to the FTC.
The agency received almost 589,000 consumer complaints associated with the pandemic from Jan. 1, 2020 to Aug. 30, 2021. Roughly 61% of the reports concerned fraud; the median loss was $380.

“Scammers always take advantage of disasters, manmade or natural,” Susan Grant, director of consumer protection and privacy at the Consumer Federation of America, an advocacy group, said last month.

Consumer complaints

Price-gouging was the most commonly reported pandemic-related issue in 2020, according to state and local consumer agencies polled for a recent Consumer Federation of America report. Consumers complained of being charged exorbitant prices for sought-after products such as hand sanitizer, toilet paper and masks.
Agencies also received Covid-associated complaints in a wide range of other categories, such as evictions, canceled events and travel, schools and childcare, the report said.
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The true scope of consumer complaints and losses is likely much higher than official statistics indicate, since the data is self-reported by consumers.

Online shopping accounted for the largest number of reported scams to the FTC, at nearly 55,000 complaints.
Americans increased their online orders during the pandemic since they spent more time indoors. But many were victims of “opportunistic websites” claiming to sell popular items — anything from hand sanitizer to gloves, electronics, clothing and even puppies, according to the FTC. Customers order the item but then never receive it.

Victims lost the largest amount of total money ($79 million) to vacation and travel scams, according to FTC data. Most fraud relates to refunds and cancellations, the agency said.
Travel has rebounded in recent months as Covid vaccinations have increased — and fraudsters have responded by creating fake airline ticket booking sites or customer service numbers, according to the Better Business Bureau.

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