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TRADE HAS flowed through the port of Ningbo on China’s east coast since the Tang Dynasty in the 8th century. After the first opium war ended in 1842, it was one of five points of entry forcibly opened to foreign merchants. And in the first half of this year the port (which merged with neighbouring Zhoushan port in 2015) handled more tonnes of cargo than anywhere else in the world. A tour group of 80 students recently spent three days admiring the free-trade zone and the port’s “hardcore” power, as Ningbo city government put it.But on August 11th activity at one of the port’s busiest terminals came to an abrupt halt. A 34-year-old dockworker, who had come into contact with visiting crews, was diagnosed with the Delta variant of covid-19 despite having received two shots of the Sinovac vaccine. That solitary infection was all it took for the government to shut down operations and consign 254 of his close contacts (and a further 396 of their contacts) to quarantine.The case is revealing in three ways. It illustrates once more how hard it is to keep the Delta variant at bay. It demonstrates how hard China will, yet again, nonetheless try to do just that. And it shows how widely around the world this struggle will be felt. The terminal shutdown follows a similar closure at Yantian port on China’s south coast in May (as well as disruptions wrought by last month’s typhoon In-Fa). It now takes about 70 days for ocean freight to travel from its point of origin in China to its final destination in America, compared with 47 last August, according to Freightos, a digital freight marketplace. Some experts worry that the shipping delays and the prospect of future shutdowns may even disrupt the West’s Christmas shopping.The port infection is part of an outbreak that was first discovered on July 20th at Nanjing airport. By August 10th it had spread across a dozen provinces. Unlike other countries, which are learning to live with Delta, China has imposed a hardcore combination of widespread testing and uncompromising quarantines. Anyone who tests positive is whisked to hospital, even if they are free of symptoms. Anyone judged to have come into close contact with them (based on mobile-phone data and other indicators) is quarantined, as are close contacts of these contacts. By August 10th China had quarantined 50,808 people, more than 20 for every active confirmed case. The government has discouraged inessential travel between cities and provinces. And two of the worst-hit cities, Nanjing and Zhengzhou, have postponed the start of the school year. According to a gauge of lockdowns devised by Goldman Sachs, a bank, China’s restrictions are now as tight as they were in April 2020.The impact of the restrictions is already showing up in high-frequency data. Airports were operating at only 38% of their capacity on August 12th, according to Flight Master, an online-travel platform. And the median amount of traffic congestion in the 12 cities most affected by the outbreak has fallen 12% below its pre-pandemic norm, according to Ernan Cui of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm.This immobilisation will add to an economic slowdown that was already under way. Industrial production, retail sales, investment and property sales were all weaker than expected in July (see chart), partly because the government is trying to curb steelmaking to preserve the environment, and housing speculation to preserve financial stability. Ting Lu of Nomura, another bank, expects GDP to be only 0.3% higher this quarter than last. He has cut his forecast for growth this year from 8.9% to 8.2%, which might warrant further easing from China’s central bank, even as housing curbs remain.China’s slowdown is moving financial markets at home—the CSI300 index of large Chinese stocks has fallen by 4% since August 10th—and worldwide. The price of iron ore has slumped by 21% since the end of last month, and the price of copper has fallen by more than 5%. China’s tough stance will also prevent any revival of travel to other countries. That is bad news for places like Thailand, which relied on Chinese visitors for almost 30% of its tourist receipts before the pandemic.China’s fight against Delta will be costly. But it is also proving successful. New local infections (excluding imported cases) dropped to just six on August 16th. The outbreak has started to narrow in scope as well as scale: 134 neighbourhoods still remain at risk, by the government‘s reckoning, down from 224 on August 10th.China has both an unusual ability to contain Delta outbreaks and a strong incentive to do so. It lacks two of the characteristics that have allowed other countries to tolerate an otherwise disturbing rate of Delta infections. Relatively few of China’s people have caught covid-19 in the past. As a consequence, few have any natural immunity to the disease. And although a respectable percentage of the population have received two jabs (over 55%, according to the government) China’s vaccines appear less effective than Western versions. The share of China’s population that enjoys some kind of immunity is lower than India’s or even Indonesia’s, according to Goldman Sachs, even though its vaccination rate is far higher. If China were to drop its defences and tolerate the infection rates common in Europe and America, the number of people suffering from severe illness could rise to alarming levels.China is unusually good at fighting Delta. And it needs to be. Having failed to fail against previous waves of the disease, it is now obliged to succeed again.For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, business and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly newsletter. More

In this articleHDTraders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.Source: NYSEU.S. stock index futures were slightly lower during overnight trading Monday, after the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs during regular trading.Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 24 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were slightly lower.The Dow and S&P 500 posted their fifth straight positive session on Monday, rising 0.31% and 0.26%, respectively. Each clawed back early losses to hit both intraday and closing all-time highs. The Nasdaq Composite, however, declined 0.2% to close in the red.The S&P 500’s move during Monday’s session is especially notable since the benchmark index has now doubled from its pandemic closing low on March 23, 2020. This marks the fastest bull-market doubling since World War II, according to calculations from CNBC.The closely watched retail sales data will be released on Tuesday by the Census Bureau, with the Street expecting the reading to show a slowdown in July as the delta variant spread. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are calling for a 0.3% decline for last month, after June’s reading showed a surprise 0.6% jump.Stocks have recovered from their pandemic lows at a blistering rate, and some on Wall Street see more gains ahead.”We remain bullish on stocks (particularly cyclicals/value) thanks to a strong earnings season, signs of receding risk from the delta variant, and normalization of bond-equity correlation,” JPMorgan wrote in a note to clients Monday.Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:Jefferies picks the stocks with ‘easy targets’ as growth starts to slowGoldman Sachs’ buyback portfolio is beating the market as share repurchases pick upDavid Einhorn’s inflation bets are paying off. Here are Greenlight’s latest moves20 strategists predict when stocks will have the next big tumble — and how far they’ll fallMonday’s action came despite disappointing economic data from China. The nation’s retail sales were up 8.5% year over year during July, which was short of the 11.5% jump economists polled by Reuters were expecting.Goldman Sachs noted that the impacts would likely be localized.”Rising COVID case growth is likely fueling the slowdown seen in China and the decline in manufacturing sentiment, but the economic impact — at least in the US and Europe — is unlikely to be big,” the firm said Monday in a note to clients.Second-quarter earnings season is winding down, but a number of retailers will provide results this week. Home Depot and Walmart are on deck for Tuesday before the market opens. Target, Lowe’s and Macy’s are among the names reporting later in the week.Become a smarter investor with CNBC Pro. Get stock picks, analyst calls, exclusive interviews and access to CNBC TV. Sign up to start a free trial todayTVWATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APPUP NEXT | More

There are two risks high on Invesco’s radar, but the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan isn’t one of them.Kristina Hooper, the firm’s chief global market strategist, sees a Federal Reserve policy mistake and the Covid-19 delta variant as bigger threats to the U.S. economy and stocks.”This [Afghanistan] is certainly a human tragedy. It’s a disaster,” she told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “Yet, what we have learned time and time again is no matter how big the disaster [and] no matter how significant the geopolitical risk seems, it rarely has much of an impact on markets.”According to Hooper, investors should focus on their long-term investment goals and keep a close eye on the Fed’s tapering plans instead.”It’s a significant risk because we could see the Fed move too quickly to tighten policy,” she noted. “It could even choke off the recovery.”Even though Hooper believes the risk is minimal, she’s encouraging investors to be prepared for it.”This is not the Fed of 2013. This is a Fed that is working very, very hard to communicate the slightest steps that it will take,” said Hooper.She’s also concerned about the delta fallout and data from Israel showing the Pfizer vaccine has been losing its efficacy over time.”That could mean there needs to be a very big effort in the U.S. to get booster shots out there before we have even reached herd immunity,” she said. “We just want to watch this closely.”She’s believes the latest virus surge could crimp spending on goods and services and slow economic growth.China is ‘very attractive’To hedge the risks, one of Hooper’s top plays is emerging markets in Asia. It’s a group that includes China, which is trying to cope with an economic slowdown.”We’ve seen China do some things like reducing fiscal stimulus and enforcing some regulatory initiatives that it believes very strongly about for the longer-term,” Hooper said. “We’re likely going to see a moderation in growth for a variety of reasons including a slight resurgence of Covid-19. But the reality is that China is positioned for strong growth for the longer term. So, for those with a long enough time horizon, it’s very attractive.”Disclaimer More

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said Monday he would be prepared to start rolling back some of the central bank’s easy monetary policy this fall but isn’t ready yet to start thinking about raising interest rates.Echoing recent comments from multiple Fed officials, Rosengren told CNBC that it’s probably appropriate to begin reducing, or tapering, bond purchases before the end of the year.He voiced support for an announcement on the matter over the next month or two and said he thinks the pullback of the minimum $120 billion a month program will start shortly thereafter. Raising rates, though, will have to wait for the job market to improve.”I think it’s appropriate to start in the fall. That would be October or November,” Rosengren told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a live “Closing Bell” interview. “I certainly wouldn’t want to wait any later than December. My preference would be probably for sooner rather than later.”Rosengren affirmed, though, that he still wants to see more economic progress before taking that next pivotal step.”The criteria for starting to raise rates is that we see outcomes that are consistent with sustainable inflation at a little bit above 2% … and that we’re at full employment,” he said.If the unemployment rate continues to fall from 5.4% and wages keep inflation up well above 2%, Rosengren said, he might consider tightening further.”That would be a reason to start thinking about raising rates more quickly, but I’m not expecting that,” he said.Recent comments from regional presidents and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have indicated that Fed officials are looking to prep markets for the imminent start of a taper.Since the early days of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed has been using purchases primarily of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities as a way to hold down interest rates and maintain economic growth. The Fed in 2017 started to allow some of the bonds to roll off its balance sheet but had to backtrack amid market upset and, ultimately, the Covid-19 crisis.Markets have been awaiting the inevitable taper but still do not expect to see interest rate hikes until at least late 2022. Several news reports indicating that the tapering announcement could come soon failed to roil bond markets Monday.”They’re seeing the same numbers we’re seeing, so I don’t think it’s necessarily going to be much of a surprise,” Rosengren said of investors. “Markets tend to react to surprises, and I think this has been well-communicated.”Tapering is appropriate now, he said, as the Fed has hit the inflation part of its mandate and with the asset purchases, also known as quantitative easing, having diminished economic effects.”This just reflects the fact that it’s not being particularly effective,” he said. “There’s no reason to drag it out as long as the economy continues to progress as we expect.”Become a smarter investor with CNBC Pro.Get stock picks, analyst calls, exclusive interviews and access to CNBC TV.Sign up to start a free trial today.TVWATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APPUP NEXT | More

In this articleTMERBLXPRCHWeChat mascots are displayed inside Tencent office at TIT Creativity Industry Zone in Guangzhou, China, May 9, 2017.Bobby Yip | ReutersCheck out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading.Tencent Music — Tencent Music shares rose roughly 1% in extended trading after the company beat on earnings but narrowly missed second-quarter revenue expectations. The company reported revenue of 8.01 billion yuan, compared with the 8.13 billion yuan analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting. Roblox — Shares of the online video game platform dipped roughly 2% after the company missed revenue expectations during the second quarter. Roblox reported revenue of $665 million, compared with the $683 million analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting.Porch Group — Porch Group shares gained more than 3% during extended trading after the company’s second-quarter results. The software name lost 17 cents per share on revenue of $51.3 million. Analysts were expecting a loss of 18 cents on $47 million in revenue, according to StreetAccount estimates.CORRECTION: This article has been updated to reflect that Tencent’s earnings results are in Chinese yuan.TVWATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APPUP NEXT | More

The Wall Street Bull, located in the financial district of New York City.Mike Roy | MCT | Tribune News Service | Getty ImagesHere’s a market milestone to encapsulate how stunning the recovery rally has been: The S&P 500 just doubled its level from its pandemic closing low.The broad equity benchmark has rallied 100% on a closing basis from its Covid trough of 2,237.40 on March 23, 2020. It took the market 354 trading days to get there, marking the fastest bull market doubling off a bottom since World War II, according to a CNBC analysis of data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.The S&P 500 closed at a record 4,479.71 Monday, up 0.3% on the day and 100.2% higher than its low Covid close.During the financial crisis, the S&P 500 hit its bottom at 676.53 on March 9, 2009, and the benchmark did not double that number on a closing basis until April 27, 2011. On average, it takes bull markets more than 1,000 trading days to reach that milestone, the analysis showed.”Usually it takes many years to double, so this is another way of showing just how incredible this bull market has been,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.Many credited unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus for the market’s leap out of its massive pandemic slump. At the height of the crisis last year, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero, while flushing financial markets with $120 billion in emergency monthly bond purchases. The rescue action came as the S&P 500 suffered its fastest 30% drop in history.Meanwhile, the government injected trillions of dollars into the economy in Covid relief spending, sending direct payments and unemployment insurance to many struggling Americans.The market gains have come so fast and furious that they have pushed the S&P 500 about 4% above the average year-end target of 4,328 from the top Wall Street strategists, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey.While the numbers may seem too good to be true, this powerful rally does have a fundamental support — a massive earnings comeback. Corporate profits have jumped off the pandemic bottom, with S&P 500 companies reporting 53% year-over-year earnings growth for the first quarter and set to post a 93.8% surge for the second quarter, according to Refinitiv.”This quarter can be characterized by not only a large number of beats, but also the impressive magnitude of surprises,” David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a note. “Companies are confident that rising input costs can be offset or managed. Firms are taking advantage of excess cash and prioritizing investments for growth while simultaneously maintaining high levels of buybacks.”The latest tick up in stocks came after data showed consumer prices rose at a more moderate pace in July than last month. Meanwhile, investors cheered Senate passage of the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which includes $550 billion in new spending for areas such as transportation and the electric grid. The technology sector led the early stage of the historic market rebound with a 120% return from its pandemic bottom. Investors flocked to tech shares that benefited from a stay-at-home trend in 2020, while embracing the safety of megacap names like the so-called FAANG stocks. The rally in the sector slowed down in 2021, and beaten-down value names and shares tied to economic growth took the baton and sprinted.These cyclical areas of the market — materials, energy, financials and industrials — have all doubled from their 2020 bottom thanks to a strong comeback this year as optimism toward the reopening grew.Still, after the eye-popping milestone, many expect more bumpy trading and muted returns down the road. The list of worries is piling up — the spread of delta variant of the coronavirus, slowing economic growth and a Fed that has started mulling dialing back easy policies. Plus, the market hasn’t had a sizeable pullback in about 10 months.”Although we remain bullish, we haven’t seen so much as a 5% pullback since last October, so one might want to continue to avoid walking under a ladder, but also be aware some type of well-deserved market pullback could be in the cards at any time,” Detrick said.There has been growing support within the Fed to announce a tapering of its bond purchases in September and begin the reduction in buying a month or so after.Enjoyed this article?For exclusive stock picks, investment ideas and CNBC global livestreamSign up for CNBC ProStart your free trial nowTVWATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APPUP NEXT | More

In this articleTSLARKTWMTOXYFANGShoppers walk in front of a Walmart store in San Leandro, California, U.S., on Thursday, May 13, 2021.David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesCheck out the companies making headlines in midday trading.Sonos — Shares of the high-end speaker company jumped over 4.5% after a judge for the International Trade Commission ruled Google infringed on some of its audio technology patents, a ruling that could lead to an import ban for some of Google’s Pixel smartphones and Nest audio speakers.Tesla — Tesla’s stock retreated about 4% after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced a formal probe into the electric vehicle maker’s Autopilot partially automated driving system. The regulators identified 11 crashes resulting in at least 17 people injured and one dead.Oil stocks — Oil stocks slipped on Monday after weak economic data out of China fanned concerns about slowing global growth. Shares of Diamondback Energy fell more than 4%, and shares of Occidental Petroleum fell just under 4%. Futures for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude traded at about $67 per barrel.Walmart — Shares of the retailer advanced nearly 1% after Jefferies reiterated its buy rating on the stock ahead of the retailer’s quarterly results on Tuesday. The firm said it expects a “solid” second quarter, with Walmart’s model advantages becoming “more apparent.”Rocket Companies — Shares of the mortgage company fell more than 5% after reporting adjusted diluted earnings per share of 46 cents, which came in below analysts’ estimates. The company also missed on revenue, recording $2.79 billion versus the forecast of $2.92 billion. It said it expects 2021 closed loan origination volume to exceed 2020’s record performance of $320 billion.JD.com — Shares of the ecommerce giant fell more than 3.5% as retail sales in China reportedly rose at an 8.5% clip year over year, slower than the expected 11.5%, according to analysts polled by Reuters. The decline in sales occurred amid rising fears of the Covid-19 delta variant.Tencent Music Entertainment — The music streaming company’s stock is down almost 9% after news that it would halt its planned $5 billion initial public offering in Hong Kong, according to Japan’s Nikkei news service. That follows new rules in China around livestreaming and a recent loss in an antitrust ruling that could continue to hold the stock back.T-Mobile US — The wireless carrier’s stock fell nearly 3% after it said it’s investigating a forum post in which a hacker claimed to be selling personal data. Vice first reported on the post, which doesn’t mention T-Mobile specifically, but the hacker selling the data reportedly claimed it came from T-Mobile servers. — CNBC’s Hannah Miao, Jesse Pound and Pippa Stevens contributed reportingBecome a smarter investor with CNBC Pro. Get stock picks, analyst calls, exclusive interviews and access to CNBC TV. Sign up to start a free trial todayTVWATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APPUP NEXT | More

A company advertises a help wanted sign on April 09, 2021 in Pawtucket, Rhode Island.Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesEmployment among the lowest-paid Americans has flatlined at a level well below its pre-pandemic baseline — even as mid- and high-wage workers have more than recovered.Jobs for workers who earn less than $27,000 a year were down about 22% as of July 23 relative to mid-January last year, according to new data from Opportunity Insights, an economic research initiative based at Harvard University.Meanwhile, jobs are up about 10% over the same period for those who make more than $60,000 a year, according to the estimates published last week. They’re up more than 3% for those earning $27,000 to $60,000.The data highlights a hallmark of the pandemic economy: a quick recovery for those at the top and ongoing trouble for those at the bottom.The initial shock of the Covid pandemic caused mass unemployment across all income groups. But the wealthy lost fewer jobs relative to others and had largely regained them by summer 2020, according to John Friedman, an economics professor at Brown University and a co-director of Opportunity Insights.The lowest earners saw almost 40% of their jobs evaporate at the height of the crisis in April last year. Though their current employment level has somewhat recovered, it has stagnated at roughly the same place it was at the end of December, according to Opportunity Insights.More from Personal Finance:Biden administration announces the biggest increase to food stamps everEven if you aren’t working, you may be able to open an IRAFamilies massively underestimate the cost of college”Over the past 13 months, we’ve really seen no growth in the employment of low-wage workers,” Friedman said.Job loss often impacts the lowest earners most in recessions. Richer Americans typically feel the sting of a downturn via a hit to financial assets like stocks and houses, which they disproportionately own.But the Covid recession was different in that stock and home prices soared after an initial slump, boosting wealth for the rich.Enhanced unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, food stamps and other federal aid helped prop up household spending and keep many other families afloat.The U.S. poverty rate dropped after the passage of three pandemic-aid bills, and in June was about the same as its pre-pandemic baseline, according to estimates published by economists at the University of Chicago and University of Notre Dame. Much of that federal assistance has or will soon expire, though.A different recoveryLow-wage industries got hit harder during the pandemic than others, according to AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab.Leisure and hospitality jobs — like those in restaurants and hotels, for example — are still down 1.7 million (or 10%) from February 2020.”There is going to be a different recovery path [for the lower paid], and I don’t find that surprising,” said Konkel.But current employment levels among low-wage workers aren’t necessarily attributable to a dearth of jobs, as was the case early in the pandemic, according to Friedman. He believes it’s more a function of people not returning to work — though for reasons that aren’t entirely clear.The number of total U.S. job postings was up about 15% during the week ended Aug. 6, roughly equivalent to the pre-pandemic baseline, according to Opportunity Insights data. But job ads for positions that require a minimum level of skill — which tend to correlate with lower wages — were up 63% versus pre-pandemic levels, Friedman said.”The story for those first nine months, I think, was that the jobs weren’t there,” Friedman said. “I think the story is about labor supply now.”The question then is, why is it?”For one, there are lingering Covid health concerns, according to economists.Covid fears were the No. 1 reason unemployed workers weren’t urgently looking for work in June, according to an Indeed survey.About 76% of low-income workers can’t work from home to reduce their Covid risk, according to a December survey from the Pew Research Center. That’s true for just 44% of the higher paid.Covid reluctance among the unemployed somewhat abated in July, ranking behind having an employed spouse or a financial cushion as top reasons, according to Indeed. However, the highly contagious delta variant threatens that progress as virus cases spike and just half of Americans remain fully vaccinated.Child care also continues to pose an issue if schools, day care or summer camps remain closed or at reduced capacity due to the virus, according to economists.About a third of child-care centers remained closed in April 2021, a dynamic that more often affects nonwhite families than white families, according to a July study from Columbia University researchers. (Minorities were also more disproportionately affected by pandemic job loss.)There’s also been speculation that enhanced unemployment benefits are sidelining low earners, since benefits replace a larger share of lost income relative to lost paychecks of the higher paid.However, some studies suggest enhanced federal benefits, which include an extra $300 a week, are not playing a big role. Twenty-six states ended those benefits in June and July; they will end in remaining states on Sept. 6.There may also be a jobs mismatch, a dynamic seen after the Great Recession, Friedman said.New jobs being created may be a little different than those pre-pandemic, perhaps not aligning with workers’ geography, industry or skill. A construction worker in Las Vegas who can’t find a job may take a while to look for work in another city or industry, for example.”There are just a lot of different things happening under the hood,” Konkel said.TVWATCH LIVEWATCH IN THE APPUP NEXT | More