The EU sits between the devil and the deep blue sea. It can be dragged by Donald Trump’s belligerent unilateralism into needless conflict with China. Or it can cock a snook at the evermore unstable US president and bow instead before President Xi Jinping’s authoritarian regime in Beijing.
The choice is a false one. The often heard suggestion that Europe’s democracies are obliged to take sides in the escalating confrontation between the US and China is as dangerous as it is silly. Even with Mr Trump in the White House, there can be no contest for the EU between its alliance with the world’s most powerful democracy and a communist state that parades its contempt for European values.
For all that, the EU cannot simply let things drift. Whatever the political season in Washington, the bloc’s relationship with China is of profound strategic and economic consequence. Mr Trump’s ravings do not excuse the present vacuum. European governments need a China policy — a coherent framework to establish a relationship that at once protects the continent’s interests and is robust enough in its own terms to withstand occasional turbulence in transatlantic relations.
For most of the past decade, the EU has looked at China through the prism of economic opportunity — a lucrative market for German carmakers and French and Italian luxury goods companies, and a source of finance for hard-pressed nations in east and central Europe. Beijing’s transgressions, whether snuffing out human rights at home, pushing neighbours out of the South China Sea or stealing intellectual property from the west, have been shrugged off. Politicians have allowed themselves to be bullied out of meeting Tibet’s spiritual leader the Dalai Lama.
None courted Mr Xi so assiduously as Britain, where David Cameron’s administration declared itself China’s “best friend in the west”. No one stooped so low as George Osborne, Mr Cameron’s chancellor, in bidding for Chinese business. Highly sensitive strategic industries such as nuclear energy and digital communications were thrown open to Chinese companies. The Foreign Office was told to pipe down about human rights in Tibet and Xinjiang and look the other way as Beijing tightened its grip on Hong Kong.
The mood has changed. China’s decision to abandon all pretence of respect for the Joint Declaration commitment to one-country, two systems in Hong Kong has at last brought a response. Under pressure from Conservative MPs, Boris Johnson’s government has said it will respond to Beijing’s plans for new security legislation in Hong Kong by offering entry visas to citizens of the former British colony. The prime minister also plans to dilute Huawei’s role in building a new 5G communications network.
Continental Europe has been moving in this direction for some time. Germany has imposed restrictions on predatory investment in high-tech industries. France has said it will do likewise. Mr Xi’s assertive stance in the South China Sea and Beijing’s coercive diplomacy elsewhere have prompted the EU to label China “a systemic rival”. More recently, the shift has been crystallised by Beijing’s secretive handling of the coronavirus outbreak, its aggressive disinformation campaigns and the clampdown in Hong Kong.
The missing ingredient, however, has been a strategic framework within the EU in which governments can routinely weigh political and security interests against economic relations. This would disarm Beijing’s attempts to divide and rule by picking off “unfriendly” nations. A set of clear principles would also guide the response to demands, capricious or otherwise, from Washington for tougher sanctions against the Chinese regime.
The first point on this compass is the recognition that Europe’s values and interests are indivisible. The EU is nothing without its commitments to human dignity, democracy and the rule of law. To be anything but loud and unapologetic in defence of these values is to concede the ground to Beijing.
The second guiding principle should be framed around the idea of reciprocity. Pace Mr Trump, globalisation is a good thing. Europe and China are both winners from free trade. But safeguarding open markets requires the rules be applied evenly. EU nations should welcome Chinese business and investment to the extent that Beijing respects the rules and offers the same access to western businesses. Mr Xi cannot complain about discrimination against Huawei while outsiders are locked out of any sector that might touch even remotely China’s national security.
The third compass point says the EU and China should look for every opportunity to work together to promote global public goods — whether tackling pandemics or the vast programme of decarbonisation needed to slow global warming. The invitation to Beijing to become a responsible stakeholder in the international system must remain on the table. Competition and co-operation need not be mutually exclusive.
No one should be naive. Mr Xi’s China has shown itself ruthless in the pursuit of its great-power status and, in the sanctions it has now applied against Australia, that it is unabashed about using its economic power in pursuit of geopolitical interests. Europe should not expect a comfortable relationship with Beijing, nor always to agree with Washington. It can, if it wishes, make its own choices.
philip.stephens@ft.com
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Source: Economy - ft.com
