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Can Indonesia Afford Prabowo’s Free School Lunch Program?

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Indonesia’s president promised free meals for every student in the country. But unemployment is rising, and some analysts say he’s making matters worse.Nina Megayanti used to think she had it all.For years, she had a comfortable life in Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, eating out with friends, taking weekend trips abroad and making house payments. But in 2023, she was laid off from her marketing job as the economy slowed. She was out of work for more than a year, lost her housing deposit and went through almost all of her savings.Millions of other Indonesians are similarly desperate. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the country’s unemployment rate will rise this year to become the second-highest in Asia, exceeded only by China’s.But the government says the economy is doing fine, pointing to its annual growth rate of about 5 percent. Since taking office in October, President Prabowo Subianto has been focused on fulfilling campaign pledges, including a nationwide free school lunch program and affordable housing. He has also set up a new sovereign wealth fund.To bankroll these projects, he has redirected the equivalent of billions of dollars in government funds, slashed budgets and demanded austerity from the ministries of public works, health and education, among others. He has also fired thousands of government contractors. But Indonesia’s economy is heavily dependent on state spending, and critics say Mr. Prabowo’s priorities are misplaced.“The government is in denial about the economy,” said Awalil Rizky, an economist at the Bright Institute, an independent think tank in Jakarta. “The employment figures are evidence that the conditions are indeed not good.”The I.M.F. has projected that Indonesia’s unemployment rate will rise to 5 percent this year, from 4.9 percent in 2024. And on Tuesday, the government lowered its estimate for economic growth in 2025 to about 5 percent, from 5.2 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Threat of More Tariffs Slows Trade Deals

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    As America’s largest trading partners race toward deals, they are increasingly worried about being hit with future tariffs on their critical industries.Governments around the globe are racing to negotiate trade deals with the United States in order to forestall President Trump’s punishing tariffs, which could kick in on July 9. But the discussions have been slowed because Mr. Trump has threatened to impose more tariffs even if those deals are in place.Mr. Trump announced what he refers to as “reciprocal tariffs” on April 8, saying they were in response to other countries’ unfair trading practices. But he agreed to pause those levies for 90 days to give countries time to reach trade deals with the United States. Some administration officials recently suggested that the deadline could be extended, but Mr. Trump has signaled that he is ready to slap tariffs on countries he views as uncooperative. “We have countries that are negotiating in good faith, but they should be aware that if we can’t get across the line because they are being recalcitrant, then we could spring back to the April 2 levels,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday.India, Vietnam, Japan, the European Union, Malaysia and other governments have been working toward deals that could smooth relations with the United States and avoid double-digit tariffs. But the Trump administration has been moving forward with plans to impose another set of tariffs on certain industries that it views as essential to national security, a threat that has foreign leaders worried that there could be more pain ahead.These tariffs are dependent on the outcomes of trade investigations into lumber and timber, copper and critical minerals by the Commerce Department, which are expected to be completed soon and submitted to the White House, according to people familiar with the matter. A determination that imports pose a national security threat would allow the president to issue tariffs on those products in the coming weeks. Investigations on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and electronic devices are also proceeding and could be finished in time for tariffs as early as next month, the people said.Mr. Bessent added that tariffs on imports of items such as lumber were being imposed on a different track from the reciprocal tariffs that were announced in April and are not part of the current round of trade negotiations.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    For Trump, It’s a New Era of Deal-Making With Tech’s Most-Coveted Commodity

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    As the president heads to the Middle East, America’s dominance over A.I. chips has become a powerful source of leverage for the president.As President Trump tours the Middle East this week, governments that are flush with oil wealth will be focused on a different treasure, found in America’s Silicon Valley.Artificial intelligence chips, which are made by U.S. companies like Nvidia and AMD, are highly coveted by governments across the Middle East. Leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates want to pour billions of dollars into the construction of data centers to put their countries at the forefront of a new technology heralded for its power to disrupt businesses and create trillions of dollars in economic value.The Gulf States have plenty of energy and cash to build data centers, which house the supercomputers that run A.I. systems. But they need U.S. government approval to buy the American-designed chips to power them. The Biden administration had been wary of allowing such purchases. But the Trump administration appears more interested in using A.I. chips to secure strategic bonds in a region where Mr. Trump has deep financial and business ties.The technology is expected to be the focus of much deal making during the president’s trip. Officials from the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia are likely to try to strike agreements with the Trump administration to obtain steady access to A.I. chips in the years to come. And the Trump administration is expected to showcase deals and negotiations across the region by American tech companies, including AMD, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google and OpenAI, according to half a dozen people familiar with the plans.Tech executives including Jensen Huang of Nvidia, Sam Altman of OpenAI, Lisa Su of AMD and Ruth Porat of Alphabet are scheduled to travel to the Middle East, with some rubbing shoulders with Saudi ministers and White House officials at an investment forum that will focus partly on partnerships in A.I. and data centers.The United States began regulating A.I. chips systematically during the Biden administration, because of their value in helping governments develop military and surveillance technologies. While many Trump officials are also concerned about the national security implications of selling A.I. chips abroad, some are more willing than their predecessors to deploy the chips as a broader source of leverage globally, potentially playing into trade talks and other negotiations.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How India Is Trying to Squeeze Pakistan Far From the Battlefield

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    The nuclear-armed rivals are also wrangling over Pakistan’s access to desperately needed foreign aid, as India explores ways to use its soft power and relationships to bedevil its old enemy.Even as India was gearing up to use its military to strike at Pakistan this week, calling it revenge for a terrorist strike in Kashmir last month, the government was pursuing other forms of power projection as well: bloodless and more refined, and mostly aimed at Pakistan’s economic vulnerability.On Friday, May 9, the executive board of the International Monetary Fund is scheduled to meet three blocks from the White House. Indian officials have suggested that they will make a new case there: that the Fund should refuse the extension of a $7 billion loan to Pakistan described as crucial to getting the country on more solid footing financially and to fund desperately needed services for its people. And though Indian officials will not confirm it, other potential sources of Pakistani aid may also be in India’s sights, according to domestic media reports.In two weeks before its strikes against Pakistan on Wednesday, India was already testing new ways to aggrieve its old enemy.On April 23, India pulled out of a river-sharing treaty that has safeguarded Pakistan’s vulnerable water supply since 1960. Pakistan called it an act of war.India turned to its softer power, as well. As tensions rose after the terrorist attack in Kashmir, India tinkered with its internet controls to cut off Pakistani musicians and cricketers from their audiences on Indian social media, much as it blocked Indians from using Chinese-owned TikTok after a clash with China in 2020.India also announced that it would sever all trade between the two countries. In practice, there wasn’t much to begin with. India exports mainly sugar, medicines and some other chemicals to Pakistan. Some Indian exporters said they never got a legal notice from the government — so they are still fulfilling contracts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Can President Trump Turn Back the Economic Clock?

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    Historians make their names by persuading people to see patterns in the chaos. In the late 1970s, the French historian Fernand Braudel thought that one of those patterns was about to repeat. Braudel was a student of the slow-moving currents that shape events. He wanted people to pay less attention to great men like Napoleon and more to seemingly humble things like the potato, a New World import that made it easier for European farmers to grow more food than they needed; this surplus, in turn, gave a wider array of Europeans time to engage in new hobbies like complaining about their rulers. One might say that he regarded the potato as the cause of Napoleon.Listen to this article, read by Malcolm HillgartnerIn the third volume of his epic “Civilization and Capitalism,” published in 1979, Braudel explored the forces that made one city at a time the economic center of the Western world, from Venice to Amsterdam to London, and then inexorably lifted up another in its place. He wrote that cities rose as centers of commerce, and then, as they prospered, they began to invest their surpluses in building new centers, engineering their own declines. Commerce moved on, leaving a financial hub behind.Braudel’s account ended with the decline of Amsterdam, the entrepôt of Europe through the 17th and into the 18th century, a city of astonishing wealth and diversity. Wide-eyed visitors wrote of its wonders with the same astonishment as later generations would write of New York. The young czar of Russia went home so impressed that he built St. Petersburg in its image. But as Amsterdam grew fat and happy, its merchants became bankers and began to seek better returns in fast-growing London. Amsterdam, Braudel wrote, became “a society of rentier investors on the lookout for anything that would guarantee a quiet and privileged life,” a society that had moved on “from the healthy tasks of economic life to the more sophisticated games of the money market.”Braudel noted that London, too, eventually ceded its role, underwriting the rise of New York in the early 20th century. And in the late 1970s, he judged that New York was entering the “autumn” of its era as the center of the global economy. Commerce and industry were fleeing the city, leaving behind a thriving financial center — a sure sign in Braudel’s view that New York, and the nation it anchored, were on the edge of decline.Donald Trump became Donald Trump in that city, building towers and bankrupting casinos as Wall Street boomed and the working class faded away, and he emerged with a similarly bleak view of America’s prospects. His career as a political figure has been built on his conviction that America is losing its wealth and its power. If Ronald Reagan filled voters with hope, Trump offers to keep them company in their misery. He has an intuition for the things that people fear and is comfortable saying what other politicians won’t. Where other presidents intone that it’s still Morning in America, Trump has touched a nerve by insisting that it’s not long before midnight.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Grand Egyptian Museum Is Finally Open. (Well, Mostly.)

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    I was drawn to the outskirts of Cairo by the colossal complex in the desert — a towering site that arose over decades, built at unimaginable expense, with precisely cut stones sourced from local quarries; a set of buildings whose construction, plagued by extraordinary challenges, spanned the reigns of several rulers; a collective cultural testament, the largest of its kind, teeming with royal history.No, I’m not referring to Giza’s famous pyramids. I came to see the Grand Egyptian Museum.Approaching the museum’s main entrance. (The plaza contains an obelisk that is elevated on a granite base, allowing for views of the cartouche — an oval containing a royal name in hieroglyphics — of Ramses II.)Hieroglyphic motifs and translucent stone adorn the building’s exterior.A pyramidal entryway leads to the grand atrium.There is perhaps no institution on earth whose opening has been as wildly anticipated, or as mind-bogglingly delayed, as the Grand Egyptian Museum outside Cairo. Its construction has been such a fiasco — mired by funding lapses, logistical hurdles, a pandemic, nearby wars, revolutions (yes, plural) — that it begs comparison to that of the pyramids that lie just over a mile away on the Giza Plateau.(The 4,600-year-old Great Pyramid of Giza, built from around 2.3 million stone blocks and without the use of wheels, pulleys or iron tools, took about 25 years to build, by some estimates. So far, the Grand Egyptian Museum has taken more than 20.)Planned openings have come and gone since 2012. (Even The Times got it wrong; our list of 52 Places to Go in 2020 prematurely referred to the “fancy new digs for King Tut and company.”) In time, frustrations bubbled over for would-be visitors, many of whom had planned vacations around the new museum. “I have canceled two trips to Cairo because of anticipated opening dates and then delays,” one traveler wrote on the museum’s Instagram page this year. “I have wanted to visit since I was a child and the promise of the museum and constant delays is ruining that experience for so many people.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Has Mixed Emotions Toward Japan

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    The president at turns praises and criticizes Japan, a U.S. ally that decades ago stirred his anger over the unequal balance of trade and his penchant for tariffs.This month in the White House’s Rose Garden, as he held up a placard showing the global wave of tariffs he wanted to impose, President Trump paused to fondly recall a fallen friend.“The prime minister of Japan, Shinzo, was — Shinzo Abe — he was a fantastic man,” Mr. Trump said during the tariff announcement on April 2. “He was, unfortunately, taken from us, assassination.”The words of praise for Mr. Abe, who was gunned down three years ago during a campaign speech, did not stop Mr. Trump from slapping a 24 percent tariff on products imported from Japan. But they were unusual, nonetheless, coming from a president who has had few nice things to say these days about other allies, particularly Canada and Europe.Now, Japan will be one of the first countries allowed to bargain for a possible reprieve from Mr. Trump’s sweeping tariffs, many of which he has put on hold for 90 days. On Thursday, a negotiator handpicked by Japan’s current prime minister is scheduled to begin talks in Washington with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others.Japan’s place at the front of the line reflects the different approach that Mr. Trump has taken toward the nation. While the president still accuses it of unfair trade policies and an unequal security relationship, he also praises it in the same breath as a close ally, an ancient culture and a savvy negotiator.“I love Japan,” Mr. Trump told reporters last month. “But we have an interesting deal with Japan where we have to protect them but they don’t have to protect us,” referring to the security treaty that bases 50,000 U.S. military personnel in Japan.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Investors Seeking Safety Look to German Government Bonds

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    Germany has long taken flak from Wall Street and financial capitals around Europe for the extreme fiscal conservatism that has kept the country’s debt levels low. But as global markets convulsed this week, investors rewarded Germany’s caution by snapping up its government bonds, which are known as bunds.Investors have reeled after President Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on nearly every trading partner, temporarily rescinded even higher “reciprocal” tariffs hours after they came into effect and steadily ratcheted up tariffs on China to well above 100 percent.The resulting tumult hit U.S. assets hard, including Treasuries and the dollar, normally considered haven assets. That sent investors seeking other places for safety, such as gold, the Swiss franc and German bunds.The 10-year yield on German bunds, which moves inversely to prices, fell to 2.56 percent, near its lowest level in more than a month. That is notable relative to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, arguably the most important interest rate in the world, which has soared higher. On Friday, the 10-year U.S. yield was around 4.5 percent, climbing nearly half a percentage point in one week, a huge move in that market.Germany’s strict limits on government borrowing have given the country a stellar AAA credit rating. But last month, lawmakers decided that the next government could abandon the borrowing limit and take on trillions of euros in fresh debt to bolster the country’s military and crumbling public infrastructure. Germany’s export-driven economy is also heavily exposed to tariffs, given the large amount of trade its automakers and other industrial companies do with the United States.The prospect of extra borrowing and a slowing economy had begun to put pressure on German bunds. But the turmoil elsewhere in recent weeks prompted investors to turn back to the country’s debt as a source of safety.This week, Germany’s expected next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, also announced the blueprint for his government, which included an economic plan to jump-start the ailing German economy. And ahead of its planned borrowing binge, Germany benefits from low debt relative to the size of its economy, at about 60 percent of gross domestic product. By comparison, U.S. debt is about 120 percent of the size of its economy.It was “very striking” that in a moment of stress German bunds were acting as the “haven of choice” instead of U.S. Treasuries, said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a research institute.“There does seem to be a real safety premium now being place on German government debt,” he said. More

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    China Censors Hashtags Mentioning ‘104%,’ the Size of Trump’s Tariffs

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    Chinese censors appeared to be carefully curating public discussion about the U.S. tariffs that took effect on Wednesday. They promoted criticism of the United States, while seemingly playing down the specifics of how President Trump’s move would effectively increase import taxes on Chinese goods to 104 percent.On Weibo, a popular social media platform, several hashtags that used the number 104 — such as “104 tariff rate” or “America to impose 104 percent tariff on Chinese goods” — returned an error message that said: “Sorry, the content of this topic is not displayed.”But other hashtags that focused more squarely on mocking the United States, or on touting China’s strengths, were allowed to trend — and in fact were explicitly initiated by state media. “America is fighting a trade war while begging for eggs” was one popular hashtag started by CCTV, China’s state broadcaster. “China does not provoke trouble but is never afraid of it” was another.State media outlets adopted a similarly swaggering tone in their coverage. Several opinion pieces in the People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s official mouthpiece, declared that China had learned from years of trade frictions to diversify and shore up its economy. “In Chinese people’s genes, we never fear any risks, challenges, difficulties or contradictions, and can regard all kinds of external pressure as the driving force for our own progress,” one piece said.Other pieces did not directly reference the tariffs but still touted the strengths of the Chinese economy. A front-page article in the People’s Daily laid out steps that the government would take to promote employment for fresh graduates.Mr. Xi himself has not publicly addressed the new tariffs. But on Wednesday afternoon, Chinese state media published his first public remarks since the latest escalation in the trade war, saying that he had met with his innermost circle of top officials on Tuesday and Wednesday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More