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How Trump May Unintentionally Cut Carbon Emissions

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President Trump has expressed little interest in fighting climate change. One of his key cabinet officials has even sought to evaluate whether humanity benefits from a warming climate, in a bid to undermine environmental rules.Yet even as he works to accelerate oil and gas production, Mr. Trump’s economic approach may inadvertently reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as consumption slows in response to a global trade war.Any reprieve for the planet, however, would be brief. Over the longer term, tanking the economy with tit-for-tat tariffs is likely to impede progress, because of how much clean energy deployment depends on overseas supply chains and because voters are less likely to support climate policy when they’re financially stressed.Carbon emissions, largely a byproduct of going places and making things, have always been tethered to economic growth. Forecasters increasingly anticipate that Mr. Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs could tip the economy into recession as companies and consumers cut spending in the face of higher prices for imported goods.“If we’re talking about a traditional recession, people fly less, they buy less stuff, there’s less investment in capital goods,” said Alex Heil, a senior economist at the Conference Board, who focuses on energy and climate. “And just a slowdown in economic activity is likely to slow down carbon emissions.”That is what happened in the last two recessions. Global carbon emissions dipped slightly, before resuming their upward march. (Emissions in the United States continued to decline after 2008 as cheap natural gas displaced coal, and it’s possible that a similar peak is nearing for the rest of the world.)Carbon Emissions Slow When the Economy Takes a Hit

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Global annual carbon emissions
Source: Global Carbon BudgetBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Delta Warns Trump’s Trade War Will Weigh on the Economy

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    Delta Air Lines on Wednesday became one of the largest American companies to warn that President Trump’s escalating trade war was weighing on its business and the global economy.Speaking before Mr. Trump reversed many of the tariffs he had just imposed on most countries, Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said a recession was possible as companies pulled back spending. “Everyone’s being prepared for uncertainty,” he told CNBC, “if that continues, and we don’t get resolution soon, we will probably end up in a recession.”Mr. Trump’s announcement helped send Delta stock up over 20 percent on Wednesday and prompted a broad rally in stocks. The president said he would pause the high tariffs for 90 days but kept a 10 percent tariff on most countries in place.Still, the president’s reversal might not be enough to dispel the uncertainty that has made it hard for companies to plan ahead. The Trump administration also said on Wednesday that it would significantly raise tariffs on China. The United States might not strike trade deals with other countries within 90 days.Airlines are highly sensitive to changes in the economy because air travel is among the first things that individuals and businesses can cut back on when they are worried about their paychecks or profits.Mr. Bastian expressed shock at the speed at which the trade tensions had taken the wind out of the economy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Stock Market Chaos Over Tariffs Could Take Toll on Economy

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    A big hit to portfolios would be felt acutely by higher-income Americans, whose spending has recently been the biggest driver of the economy.This time, maybe the stock market is the economy.Financial markets around the world have plummeted in the days since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, setting off a global trade war. The S&P 500 declined more than 10 percent in two days last week, and it swung wildly on Monday amid news of further tariffs and rumors of delays. Stock indexes in Asia and Europe have fallen sharply as well.Experts often caution that the stock market can be a misleading measure of the broader economy. Share prices can move for a host of reasons — technological developments, shifts in consumer preferences, changes in tax or interest rate policy.Sometimes, though, the markets carry an economic message — and in recent days, they have been speaking unusually clearly. Investors overwhelmingly believe that Mr. Trump’s tariffs, and retaliation from U.S. trading partners, will lead to higher prices, slower growth and possibly a global recession.Plunging stock prices may not just reflect fears of a recession. They may also help cause one, as consumers pull back spending in response to their portfolios’ evaporating value.A few days of turmoil might not matter much, said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, a forecasting firm, “but if the drop in the stock market persists for a few weeks, a couple months, the economic costs begin to quickly mount.”The direct effects of tariffs will fall hardest on low- and moderate-income consumers, who tend to spend more of their money on food, clothing and other goods subject to duties, and who have less savings to insulate them from higher prices. But market declines will be felt most acutely by higher earners, who own a disproportionate share of stocks and other investments.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    What Is a Bear Market? Are We in One?

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    President Trump’s global tariffs have sent stock markets worldwide into a tailspin, and the S&P 500 on Monday briefly entered bear market territory for the first time since 2022.Mr. Trump has seemed unmoved by the decline. He signaled on Monday that he had no plans to back off on tariffs, insisting that they would bring in “billions of dollars” in revenue and that other countries had been “abusing” the United States with their trade policies.Here is what to know about a bear market.What is a bear market?A bear market is a Wall Street term for a sustained market downturn, when a stock index closes 20 percent from its last peak.The 20 percent threshold signals investor pessimism about the future of the economy.Are we in a bear market now?The S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock index, opened lower on Monday. The index was already down 17.4 percent from its last high, on Feb. 19, and if it closes Monday’s trading with a loss of at least 3.1 percent, that would tip it into a bear market. More

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    As Trump Stokes Uncertainty, the Fed Asks Businesses Where It Hurts

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    The central bank’s outreach to companies has taken on new significance as the outlook for growth and inflation gets cloudier.Chris Bergen, who runs a commercial greenhouse business in northern Minnesota, finds himself “walking a tightrope” roughly two months into President Trump’s second term. Acute uncertainty about how the administration’s trade and immigration policies will unfold and affect the economy has made him much more cautious about any expansion plans.As one of the country’s biggest producers of bedding plants, perennials and other flowers, Bergen’s Greenhouses is exposed on many fronts.Every June, it trucks in more than six million pounds of peat moss from Manitoba. Suppliers have stopped quoting prices until they have more clarity on tariffs. The plastic flower pots that Mr. Bergen imports from China could also wind up costing more if tariffs remain in place, squeezing already “razor-thin margins,” he said. He is also worried about needing to find workers if Mr. Trump, as part of an immigration crackdown, ends a program that provides temporary visas to many of the company’s agricultural workers.“We’re not putting our foot on the brake, but we are taking our foot off the gas,” said Mr. Bergen, whose family has run the business for over a century.That caution is one of the biggest concerns for the Federal Reserve, which is facing an increasingly challenging economic moment with little precedent. The central bank is trying to get a better read on the economy as it debates when — or if — it can again lower interest rates with inflation still too high for its liking. Businesses are warning of both higher prices and slower growth, effects that have yet to show up entirely in the economic data. The 12 regional presidents at the central bank have always kept close tabs on businesses in their districts in order to understand how economic conditions are evolving. That local outreach has taken on new significance as the range of possible outcomes has widened drastically.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Says a Recession Would Be Worth It, but Economists Are Skeptical

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    President Trump and his advisers say his policies may cause short-term pain but will produce big gains over time. Many economists are skeptical of those arguments.Presidents usually do all they can to avoid recessions, so much so that they avoid even saying the word.But President Trump and his advisers in recent weeks have offered a very different message. Yes, a recession is possible, they have said. Maybe one wouldn’t even be that bad.Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has said Mr. Trump’s policies are “worth it” even if they cause a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has said the economy may need a “detox period” after becoming dependent on government spending. And Mr. Trump has said there will be a “period of transition” as his policies take effect.Such comments may partly reflect an effort to align political statements with economic reality. Mr. Trump promised to end inflation “starting on Day 1” and declared, in his inaugural address, that “the golden age of America begins right now.”Instead, inflation has remained stubborn, and while Mr. Trump has been in office less than two months, economists warn that his tariffs are likely to make it worse. Measures of consumer and business confidence have plummeted and stock prices have tumbled, attributable in large part to Mr. Trump’s policies and the uncertainty they have caused.“It’s the kind of language that you use when your policy isn’t going great and you can see that it’s actively harming people,” said Sean Vanatta, a financial historian at the University of Glasgow in Scotland.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Promised Americans Booming Wealth. Now He’s Changing His Tune.

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    As a presidential candidate, Donald J. Trump promised an economic “boom like no other.”But eight weeks into his presidency, Mr. Trump is refusing to rule out a recession — a striking change in tone and message for a man who rode widespread economic dissatisfaction to the White House by promising to “make America affordable again.”His comments come as the stock market is tumbling — the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent Monday after falling 3.1 percent last week — and business leaders are spooked about the uncertainty over his tariffs. Even some Republicans, who fear retribution if they cross Mr. Trump, have started to raise concerns about his levies.The moment captures a fundamental challenge for Mr. Trump, a showman who makes absolute and sweeping promises that inevitably run into the reality of governing.The economy Mr. Trump inherited was by many standards in solid shape, with low unemployment, moderate growth and an inflation rate that, while still higher than what the Federal Reserve wants, had declined substantially. But the uncertainty that his policies have injected into the outlook is a jarring contrast with the picture Mr. Trump painted on the campaign trail.“We will begin a new era of soaring incomes,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in October. “Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”That vow to create an economic boom has come into conflict, at least for now, with the president’s favorite economic tool: tariffs. He promised those too during the campaign and, as economists warned, they are the primary driver of the country’s cloudy economic outlook. Forecasts from both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs say a recession over the next year has become more likely because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Policies Have Shaken a Once-Solid Economic Outlook

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    Economic forecasts have deteriorated in recent weeks, reflecting the upheaval from federal layoffs, tariff moves and immigration roundups.President Trump inherited an economy that was, by most conventional measures, firing on all cylinders. Wages, consumer spending and corporate profits were rising. Unemployment was low. The inflation rate, though higher than normal, was falling.Just weeks into Mr. Trump’s term, the outlook is gloomier. Measures of business and consumer confidence have plunged. The stock market has been on a roller-coaster ride. Layoffs are picking up, according to some data. And forecasters are cutting their estimates for economic growth this year, with some even predicting that the U.S. gross domestic product could shrink in the first quarter.Some commentators have gone further, arguing that the economy could be headed for a recession, a sharp rebound in inflation or even the dreaded combination of the two, “stagflation.” Most economists consider that unlikely, saying growth is more likely to slow than to give way to a decline.Still, the sudden deterioration in the outlook is striking, especially because it is almost entirely a result of Mr. Trump’s policies and the resulting uncertainty. Tariffs, and the inevitable retaliation from trading partners, will increase prices and slow down growth. Federal job cuts will push up unemployment, and could lead government employees and contractors to pull back on spending while they wait to learn their fate. Deportations could drive up costs for industries like construction and hospitality that depend on immigrant labor.“If the economy was starting out in quite good shape, it’s probably in less good shape after what we’ve seen the last few weeks,” said Donald Rissmiller, chief economist at Strategas, a research firm.A Strong FoundationThe U.S. economy has repeatedly shown its resilience in recent years, and there are parts of Mr. Trump’s agenda that could foster growth. Business groups have responded enthusiastically to Republican plans to cut taxes and reduce regulation. A streamlined government could, in theory, make the overall economy more productive.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Lutnick Remarks on Removing Government Spending in GDP Data Raises Fears

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    Comments from a member of President Trump’s cabinet over the weekend have renewed concerns that the new administration could seek to interfere with federal statistics — especially if they start to show that the economy is slipping into a recession.In an interview on Fox News on Sunday, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, suggested that he planned to change the way the government reports data on gross domestic product in order to remove the impact of government spending.“You know that governments historically have messed with G.D.P.,” he said. “They count government spending as part of G.D.P. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”It wasn’t immediately clear what Mr. Lutnick meant. The basic definition of gross domestic product is widely accepted internationally and has been unchanged for decades. It tallies consumer spending, private-sector investment, net exports, and government investment and spending to arrive at a broad measure of all goods and services produced in a country.The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of Mr. Lutnick’s department, already produces a detailed breakdown of G.D.P. into its component parts. Many economists focus on a measure — known as “final sales to private domestic purchasers” — that excludes government spending and is often seen as a better indicator of underlying demand in the economy. That measure has generally shown stronger growth in recent quarters than overall G.D.P. figures.In recent weeks, however, there have been mounting signs elsewhere that the economy could be losing momentum. Consumer spending fell unexpectedly in January, applications for unemployment insurance have been creeping upward, and measures of housing construction and home sales have turned down. A forecasting model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts that G.D.P. could contract sharply in the first quarter of the year, although most private forecasters still expect modest growth.Steady Growth, From Private and Government SpendingGovernment spending has contributed to G.D.P. growth in recent quarters, as private-sector growth has remained solid.

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    Quarterly change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product
    Notes: Change shown as seasonally adjusted annual rate. Private sector is total gross domestic product excluding government spending and investment. Government spending excludes transfer payments, including stimulus checks during the Covid-19 pandemic.”Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More