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    As Trump’s Tariffs Reshape Trade, Businesses Struggle With Economic Uncertainty

    At the worst point of the labor shortage that emerged in the wake of the Covid-19 lockdowns, Thunderdome Restaurant Group had 100 people sign up for a job interview and only 15 show up. Of the two workers it hired, one never came in.The job market has cooled significantly since then, and Joe Lanni, who runs the Cincinnati-based company with his brother, now faces a different dilemma: how to grow the business, which has over 50 locations, while controlling costs as concerns about the economy spread.So they’re rethinking menu items like freshly made tortillas that require a dedicated full-time worker. They are also planning to shutter a handful of locations where sales have been softest, while adding more outposts of their fast casual restaurants that are doing well.Uncertainty about the economy has skyrocketed as President Trump has begun to radically reshape the global trading system with tariffs, cut off a crucial supply of workers with an immigration crackdown and floated big changes to the rules and regulations that govern how businesses operate. Consumers, who fuel the American economy, have become more hesitant to spend, and according to recent surveys, both the services and manufacturing sectors are slowing.But the economy does not appear to be at the cliff’s edge just yet, and employers like Mr. Lanni don’t want to be too cautious and miss out on opportunities.As his restaurants gear up for outdoor service this summer, Mr. Lanni said, he still expects head count across the company to swell by about 200 people, to around 1,500 employees, before receding in the fall. The stakes are high, however.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Trade Deficit Plummets in April

    U.S. trade fell sharply as President Trump’s global tariffs began to weigh on imports.The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed sharply in April, falling to $61.6 billion compared with$138.3 billion in March as tariffs clamped down on global trade.U.S. goods imports fell significantly in April, dropping by 16.3 percent from March, the data released from the Commerce Department showed, as tariffs on exports from China and other countries weighed on trade. The sharp drop reflected the fact that importers had rushed to bring many goods into the United States at the beginning of the year to get ahead of tariffs ordered by President Trump.Exports rose slightly, up 3 percent from the previous month.Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs on a variety of industries and trading partners since coming into office in January, raising the U.S. tariff rate to levels not seen in a century. The president has temporarily suspended some of the tariffs to allow for trade negotiations, but many are set to snap back into effect in early July unless deals are reached.“The big swing in the trade deficit reflects the global trade war,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “With the tariffs, goods imports collapsed in April, leading to a much smaller trade deficit.” Mr. Zandi added that a smaller trade deficit would likely result in higher gross domestic product in the second quarter, since a trade deficit is subtracted from that figure. But he cautioned that the tariffs would still have negative consequences for American consumers and the economy.“The higher U.S. tariffs have severely disrupted global trade, which will soon show up as higher prices for many of the goods Americans buy, weighing heavily on their purchasing power and spending, and by extension, the broader economy,” he said. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Will Drag Down the Global Economy, OECD Says

    Economic growth will slow this year and next as the trade war hampers development in the United States and around the world, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.President Trump’s trade war is expected to slow growth in the world’s leading economies, including the United States, this year and in the years to come, unless world leaders can resolve their differences over trade.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development slashed its outlook for global output to 2.9 percent this year, from 3.3 percent in 2024, the organization said in its economic report released on Tuesday.Economic growth in the United States is expected to be particularly weak, the organization said, rising 1.6 percent this year, a drop from the 2.2 percent projected in March, and 1.5 percent in 2026, down from its previous estimate of 1.6 percent. The U.S. economy grew 2.8 percent in 2024.“Through to the end of 2024, the global economy showed real resilience,” said Mathias Cormann, the organization’s secretary general. “But the global economic environment has become significantly more challenging since.”In the first three months of the year, economic growth in the countries monitored by the organization, which is based in Paris, “dropped abruptly” to 0.1 percent from the last three months of 2024, which is “the slowest rate of growth since the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic some five years ago,” Mr. Cormann said.Since taking office, Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs, then halted them for several weeks, then reinstated some, in the hopes of winning new trade deals from once-close allies like Canada, Mexico and the European Union, as well as longtime rivals like China.The lack of certainty coming from that on-again, off-again strategy, combined with frequent changes in how high the tariffs will eventually be, has roiled markets and disrupted the flow of goods and services around the world. From January to March, many companies rushed goods to the United States, hoping to avoid the higher tariffs, many of which are now set to take effect in July.Even if the Trump administration increases tariffs on most of America’s trading partners by just 10 percent, it would shave 1.6 percent off economic growth in the country over two years, the report said. Growth on a global scale would contract nearly a full percentage point in the same period.Further pressure is coming from the need for leading economies, such as those in the European Union, to increase military spending while also investing in the transition to a green economy, the report said.The economies of the 20 countries using the common euro currency are projected to grow 1 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026, in line with the O.E.C.D. forecast from March. China’s economy is expected to see 4.7 percent growth this year and 4.3 percent in 2026, down 0.1 percentage points from the organization’s spring projection.Economists in the organization urged countries to reach agreements on trade and to increase investment to revive economic growth.“Our key recommendation, to all governments, is to engage with each other to address issues in a global trading system cooperatively,” Mr. Cormann said. More

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    Trump Makes a New Push to ‘Decouple’ U.S. From China

    Trump administration officials are getting a second chance to try to sever ties with China by starting a trade war, imposing export controls and revoking student visas.The Trump administration has threatened to revoke the visas of many of the 277,000 or so Chinese students in the United States and to subject future applicants from China, including Hong Kong, to extra scrutiny.Cargo ships laden with goods from China stopped coming into American ports earlier this spring as President Trump escalated his trade war against Beijing.And the Trump administration is suspending sales of some critical U.S. technologies to China, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors and certain chemicals and machinery. Taken together, the actions by the Trump administration amount to an aggressive campaign to “decouple” the United States from China, as it seeks to break the close commercial ties between the world’s two largest economies and toss away what had been the anchor of the relations between the nations for decades.Aggressive decoupling would bolster American security, from the perspective of Mr. Trump and his aides. And it would also accelerate a trend toward each power being entrenched in its own regional sphere of influence.Officials in the first Trump administration spoke of the need to decouple from China, with the view that economic and educational ties across many fields equated to a national security threat. But while the efforts reframed the relationship as one of competition rather than cooperation, the volume of trade remained high, even through the pandemic.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Criticizes the Fed in a Private Meeting With Powell

    Jerome H. Powell stressed in his first meeting since the president returned to the White House that policy decisions would be “based solely on careful, objective and nonpolitical analysis.”President Trump revived his criticism of the Federal Reserve in a private meeting with its chair, Jerome H. Powell, on Thursday, saying it was a mistake not to lower interest rates.The meeting, which was organized at Mr. Trump’s request, is the first since the president returned to the White House.Mr. Powell and Mr. Trump discussed how the economy was evolving with regards to inflation, the labor market and growth. The chair did not share his expectations for monetary policy, the Fed said in a statement.He told the president that such decisions would “depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook,” according to the statement, and would be “based solely on careful, objective and nonpolitical analysis.”Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Thursday that Mr. Trump expressed his belief to Mr. Powell that the Fed was making a mistake by not lowering interest rates.The meeting comes at a fraught moment for the economy, which now faces a variety of risks stemming from Mr. Trump’s policies. That has complicated the Fed’s job as it seeks to stamp out the remaining pressures on prices stemming from the pandemic and contain new ones that surface as a result of the tariffs, while also supporting a labor market that has begun to slow.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Plan to Revive US Shipbuilding Would Take Billions and Many Years

    President Trump and members of Congress want to revive U.S. shipbuilding with subsidies and penalties against Chinese-built ships. But there are obstacles.President Trump and some members of Congress want to revive a depleted American shipbuilding industry to compete with China, the world’s biggest maker of ships by far.It is such a daunting goal that some shipping experts say it is destined to fail. More hopeful analysts and industry executives say the Trump administration and Congress could succeed but only if they are willing to spend billions of dollars over many years.One of the places where Washington’s maritime dreams might take shape or fall apart is a shipyard on the southern edge of Philadelphia that was bought last year by one of the world’s largest shipbuilding companies, a South Korean conglomerate known as Hanwha.“The shipbuilding industry in America is ready to step up,” David Kim, the chief executive of Hanwha Philly Shipyard, said in an interview.But to do that, he said, the yard must have a steady stream of orders for new vessels. And the federal government will need policies that subsidize American-built ships and penalize the use of foreign vessels by shipping companies that call on U.S. ports.Last month, Mr. Trump issued an executive order aimed at revitalizing American shipbuilding. “We’re going to be spending a lot of money on shipbuilding,” he said when announcing the order. “We’re way, way, way behind.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Global Economic Officials Gather Amid Headwinds From Trump’s Trade War

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet his international counterparts at a G7 finance ministers meeting in Canada.Top finance officials from the world’s wealthiest economies will begin gathering in Canada on Tuesday for meetings that are expected to be consumed by renewed fears of a global downturn set off by President Trump’s trade war.The summit of the Group of 7 finance ministers, a traditionally friendly gathering, is likely to be more fraught this year. The tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on American allies and adversaries have threatened to blunt global growth and inflame inflation. Europe, Japan and Canada have all been bearing the brunt of the Trump administration’s “America first” economic agenda.The tenor of the discussions could also be complicated by recent tension between the United States and Canada, the country hosting this year’s meetings and one that Mr. Trump has said he wants to annex.“I think it’s going to be awkward,” said Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.The three days of meetings will include many of the recent topics of discussion, including support for Ukraine, concerns about China’s economic practices and headwinds facing the global economy. However, Mr. Trump’s trade tactics, which many economists view as the biggest threat to global economic stability, will dominate the discussions between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his counterparts.Mr. Bessent, who skipped a gathering of the Group of 20 finance ministers in February, will appear at the international forum for the first time and at a particularly tenuous moment.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Berates Walmart and Mattel for Warning About Tariff Price Increases

    The president recently attacked Walmart, saying it should “eat” the costs rather than pass them on to customers.President Trump is telling some of the nation’s largest companies that they should eat the cost of his tariffs, as a growing number of businesses signal that they must raise prices to blunt the impact of a persistent global trade war.As a result, the man who ran for the presidency by boasting about his business acumen is now openly sparring with corporate America, seeking to dictate how Walmart, Mattel, and other retailers and manufacturers respond to some of the highest levies seen in decades.Since the spring, the United States has imposed a 10 percent tariff on nearly every nation, with steeper duties reserved for specific products and countries, including a minimum 30 percent tax on Chinese imports.While the White House insists the president’s strategy is working — generating new revenue and forcing nations to negotiate — some companies have started to report early signs of financial strain. Their warnings have affirmed economists’ long and widely held belief that tariffs fall hardest on U.S. companies and consumers, not the allies and adversaries that Mr. Trump seeks to punish.But the White House repeatedly has dismissed this evidence, while the president himself has increasingly needled companies for trying to ameliorate the financial fallout.“He maintains the position that foreign countries absorb these tariffs,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters at a briefing on Monday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More