Regulation and Deregulation of Industry

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As Trump’s Tariffs Reshape Trade, Businesses Struggle With Economic Uncertainty

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At the worst point of the labor shortage that emerged in the wake of the Covid-19 lockdowns, Thunderdome Restaurant Group had 100 people sign up for a job interview and only 15 show up. Of the two workers it hired, one never came in.The job market has cooled significantly since then, and Joe Lanni, who runs the Cincinnati-based company with his brother, now faces a different dilemma: how to grow the business, which has over 50 locations, while controlling costs as concerns about the economy spread.So they’re rethinking menu items like freshly made tortillas that require a dedicated full-time worker. They are also planning to shutter a handful of locations where sales have been softest, while adding more outposts of their fast casual restaurants that are doing well.Uncertainty about the economy has skyrocketed as President Trump has begun to radically reshape the global trading system with tariffs, cut off a crucial supply of workers with an immigration crackdown and floated big changes to the rules and regulations that govern how businesses operate. Consumers, who fuel the American economy, have become more hesitant to spend, and according to recent surveys, both the services and manufacturing sectors are slowing.But the economy does not appear to be at the cliff’s edge just yet, and employers like Mr. Lanni don’t want to be too cautious and miss out on opportunities.As his restaurants gear up for outdoor service this summer, Mr. Lanni said, he still expects head count across the company to swell by about 200 people, to around 1,500 employees, before receding in the fall. The stakes are high, however.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Plan to Revive US Shipbuilding Would Take Billions and Many Years

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    President Trump and members of Congress want to revive U.S. shipbuilding with subsidies and penalties against Chinese-built ships. But there are obstacles.President Trump and some members of Congress want to revive a depleted American shipbuilding industry to compete with China, the world’s biggest maker of ships by far.It is such a daunting goal that some shipping experts say it is destined to fail. More hopeful analysts and industry executives say the Trump administration and Congress could succeed but only if they are willing to spend billions of dollars over many years.One of the places where Washington’s maritime dreams might take shape or fall apart is a shipyard on the southern edge of Philadelphia that was bought last year by one of the world’s largest shipbuilding companies, a South Korean conglomerate known as Hanwha.“The shipbuilding industry in America is ready to step up,” David Kim, the chief executive of Hanwha Philly Shipyard, said in an interview.But to do that, he said, the yard must have a steady stream of orders for new vessels. And the federal government will need policies that subsidize American-built ships and penalize the use of foreign vessels by shipping companies that call on U.S. ports.Last month, Mr. Trump issued an executive order aimed at revitalizing American shipbuilding. “We’re going to be spending a lot of money on shipbuilding,” he said when announcing the order. “We’re way, way, way behind.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Administration Considers Large Chip Sale to Emirati A.I. Firm G42

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    The firm, which the U.S. government scrutinized for its ties to China, is angling for hundreds of thousands of advanced artificial intelligence chips in a deal that could be finalized this week.The Trump administration is considering a deal that could send hundreds of thousands of U.S.-designed artificial intelligence chips to G42, an Emirati A.I. firm that the U.S. government has scrutinized in the past for its ties to China, three people familiar with the discussions said.The negotiations, which are ongoing, highlight a major shift in U.S. tech policy ahead of President Trump’s visit to the Persian Gulf states this week. The talks have also created tension inside the Trump administration between tech- and business-minded leaders who want to close a deal before Mr. Trump’s trip and national security officials who worry that the technology could be misused by the Emiratis.The Trump administration has embraced cutting direct deals for A.I. chips with officials from the Middle East, as it looks to strengthen U.S. ties in the region, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the negotiations are ongoing. The approach marks a break from the Biden administration, which had rejected similar A.I. chip sales over fears that they could give autocratic governments with strong ties to China an edge over the United States in developing the most cutting-edge A.I. models in coming years.In the talks with G42 and officials from the United Arab Emirates, David Sacks, the White House A.I. czar, has been working on an agreement that would give the Emirati firm access to chips with limited oversight. Some of the chips would go to a partnership that G42 has with the U.S. firm OpenAI, while others would be sent directly to G42, one of the people said, adding that a deal is not yet final.The Trump administration is also expected to announce a deal this week with officials in Saudi Arabia, two people with knowledge of the agreement said. The deal would give the Saudi government and its new A.I. company, Humain, access to tens of thousands of semiconductors and technology support from Nvidia and its A.I. chip rival, Advanced Micro Devices.The United States began requiring a license for the purchase of A.I. chips during the Biden administration because of their value in helping governments develop military and surveillance technologies.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Can President Trump Turn Back the Economic Clock?

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    Historians make their names by persuading people to see patterns in the chaos. In the late 1970s, the French historian Fernand Braudel thought that one of those patterns was about to repeat. Braudel was a student of the slow-moving currents that shape events. He wanted people to pay less attention to great men like Napoleon and more to seemingly humble things like the potato, a New World import that made it easier for European farmers to grow more food than they needed; this surplus, in turn, gave a wider array of Europeans time to engage in new hobbies like complaining about their rulers. One might say that he regarded the potato as the cause of Napoleon.Listen to this article, read by Malcolm HillgartnerIn the third volume of his epic “Civilization and Capitalism,” published in 1979, Braudel explored the forces that made one city at a time the economic center of the Western world, from Venice to Amsterdam to London, and then inexorably lifted up another in its place. He wrote that cities rose as centers of commerce, and then, as they prospered, they began to invest their surpluses in building new centers, engineering their own declines. Commerce moved on, leaving a financial hub behind.Braudel’s account ended with the decline of Amsterdam, the entrepôt of Europe through the 17th and into the 18th century, a city of astonishing wealth and diversity. Wide-eyed visitors wrote of its wonders with the same astonishment as later generations would write of New York. The young czar of Russia went home so impressed that he built St. Petersburg in its image. But as Amsterdam grew fat and happy, its merchants became bankers and began to seek better returns in fast-growing London. Amsterdam, Braudel wrote, became “a society of rentier investors on the lookout for anything that would guarantee a quiet and privileged life,” a society that had moved on “from the healthy tasks of economic life to the more sophisticated games of the money market.”Braudel noted that London, too, eventually ceded its role, underwriting the rise of New York in the early 20th century. And in the late 1970s, he judged that New York was entering the “autumn” of its era as the center of the global economy. Commerce and industry were fleeing the city, leaving behind a thriving financial center — a sure sign in Braudel’s view that New York, and the nation it anchored, were on the edge of decline.Donald Trump became Donald Trump in that city, building towers and bankrupting casinos as Wall Street boomed and the working class faded away, and he emerged with a similarly bleak view of America’s prospects. His career as a political figure has been built on his conviction that America is losing its wealth and its power. If Ronald Reagan filled voters with hope, Trump offers to keep them company in their misery. He has an intuition for the things that people fear and is comfortable saying what other politicians won’t. Where other presidents intone that it’s still Morning in America, Trump has touched a nerve by insisting that it’s not long before midnight.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Small Businesses Face a ‘Tornado’ of Challenges: Cuts, Freezes and Now Tariffs

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    President Trump vowed to aid entrepreneurs by reducing taxes and slicing red tape. But some owners say other policies have put them at a disadvantage.It was a bad week for Ben Coryell, who runs a wilderness guiding company in Golden, Colo.He got several calls from customers who wanted to cancel their climbing courses and mountaineering expeditions over the summer, often citing second thoughts about big purchases as the Trump administration has thrown the economy into turmoil with eye-watering tariffs.At the same time, Mr. Coryell is wondering how long his business, Golden Mountain Guides, can continue to offer those trips, as personnel cuts at the National Park Service have held up the processing of the permits he needs to operate along high-demand routes. And with those cuts leaving fewer rangers on patrol, he fears that unlicensed operators could run amok.So far he hasn’t laid anyone off, but it seems increasingly likely that he may have to.“It’s really starting to feel like a lot of the operations we’ve depended on might have to be bumped for the next number of years until we can find a healthy status quo,” he said.Helmets on display at Golden Mountain Guides.Rachel Woolf for The New York TimesThousands of entrepreneurs are finding themselves in similar positions as they confront the blizzard of changes from Washington over the last two and a half months. Funding freezes, staffing cuts to federal agencies and an immigration crackdown — along with, of course, tariffs — are throwing many into turmoil, with little certainty about how to proceed.“It’s feeling like a tornado to small-business owners,” said Natalie Madeira Cofield, chief executive of the Association for Enterprise Opportunity, which supports initiatives to help companies with fewer than 10 employees. “This is an unprecedented moment.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Powell Warns Trump’s Tariffs Risk Stoking Even Higher Inflation and Slower Growth

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    Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, warned that President Trump’s tariffs risk stoking even higher inflation and slower growth than initially expected, as he struck a more downbeat tone about the outlook, despite the economy so far remaining in a “good place.”“While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” he said. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”Mr. Powell characterized the risks of that outcome, which he warned could include higher unemployment, as “elevated.”“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” he said in a speech at a conference in Arlington, Va., on Friday.“Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices,” he said. Higher inflation stemming from tariffs could show up “in the coming quarters,” he said.Mr. Powell added that the Fed’s “obligation” was to ensure that a “one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Administration Tallies Trade Barriers That Could Prompt Tariffs

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    The Office of the United States Trade Representative released a report highlighting foreign trade barriers that could influence tariffs the president puts into effect this week.President Trump is set to announce on Wednesday global tariffs that he says will combat unfair trade treatment by other countries and make sure American exporters remain competitive.On Monday, the Office of the United States Trade Representative released a wide-ranging report on foreign trade barriers that could hint at some of the trade battles the Trump administration aims to fight.In an annual report, the office listed the most important barriers to U.S. exports in dozens of countries. Those obstacles included tariffs, but also laws, regulations and policies that the administration said undermine competition. Here are eight of the most consequential trading partners for the United States that could be targeted in the president’s tariff announcements this week.ChinaThe report dedicated almost 50 of its nearly 400 pages to China, which has long been a subject of trade criticism for American officials and companies.The report criticized China as using industrial planning and other policies to support certain sectors it had targeted for “domination,” such as robotics, aerospace, new energy vehicles and biopharmaceuticals. The trade representative’s office argued that those tools sometimes worked by discriminating against or taking advantage of foreign enterprises, and that the program had allowed Chinese firms to win market share at the expense of foreign competitors.The office also pointed out that China had not followed through in rolling out provisions of the trade deal signed with Mr. Trump in his first term, including commitments to open up its agricultural market and protect U.S. intellectual property. Trade data also shows that China fell far short of commitments it made to purchase U.S. goods and services in 2020 and 2021, the report said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Adds Export Restrictions to More Chinese Tech Firms Over Security Concerns

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    The additions included companies that are customers of Intel and Nvidia, and one firm that was the focus of a New York Times investigation last year.The Trump administration on Tuesday added 80 companies and organizations to a list of companies that are barred from buying American technology and other exports because of national security concerns.The move, which targeted primarily Chinese firms, cracks down on companies that have been big buyers of American chips from Nvidia, Intel and AMD. It also closed loopholes that Trump administration officials have long criticized as allowing Chinese firms to continue to advance technologically despite U.S. restrictions.One company added to the list, Nettrix Information Industry, was the focus of a 2024 investigation by The New York Times that showed how some Chinese executives had bypassed U.S. restrictions aimed at cutting China off from advanced chips to make artificial intelligence.Nettrix, one of China’s largest makers of computer servers that are used to produce artificial intelligence, was started by a group of former executives from Sugon, a firm that provided advanced computing to the Chinese military and built a system the government used to surveil persecuted minorities in the western Xinjiang region.In 2019, the United States added Sugon to its “entity list,” restricting exports over national security concerns. The Times investigation found that, six months later, the executives formed Nettrix, using Sugon’s technology and inheriting some of its customers. Times reporters also found that Nettrix’s owners shared a complex in eastern China with Sugon and other related companies.After Sugon was singled out and restricted by the United States, its longtime partners — Nvidia, Intel and Microsoft — quickly formed ties with Nettrix, the investigation found.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, but Trump’s Tariffs Could Slow Inflation Progress

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    The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for a second straight meeting. The March meeting was the central bank’s most direct acknowledgment to date that President Trump’s policies are set to have a real impact on the economy, stoking significant uncertainty about where inflation, growth and — ultimately — interest rates are headed. Here are the takeaways:Tariffs took center stage during the news conference with Jerome H. Powell. The Fed chair went as far as saying that tariffs likely mean “further progress may be delayed” on getting inflation back to the central bank’s 2 percent target. That recognition materialized in the higher inflation forecasts that officials penciled into new economic projections. By the end of the year, officials estimate that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, will stay stuck at 2.8 percent, before declining to 2.2 percent in 2027.Fed officials paired their higher inflation forecast with lower estimates for economic growth, even as they stuck with previous projections that they would be able to lower interest rates by a half point this year, delivering two quarter-point cuts. The range of possible outcomes was wide, however, with eight policymakers forecasting either no additional cuts or just one this year. Only two thought the Fed would lower rates by 0.75 percentage points, or three cuts of a quarter point this year.In recent months, Mr. Powell has been adamant that the Fed is well positioned to respond to sharp shifts in the trajectory for the economy and could afford to be patient about making rate decisions given the solid foundation of the labor market. He reiterated that point, pushing back on the souring of consumer expectations about inflation and economy that has shown up in recent survey data.While the path forward for interest rates and the economy was the main focus of the March meeting, the Fed’s decision to slow the pace at which it is reducing its balance sheet drew some attention. Mr. Powell said the idea was to reduce the possibility of market ructions in funding markets. More