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Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, but Trump’s Tariffs Could Slow Inflation Progress

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The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for a second straight meeting. The March meeting was the central bank’s most direct acknowledgment to date that President Trump’s policies are set to have a real impact on the economy, stoking significant uncertainty about where inflation, growth and — ultimately — interest rates are headed. Here are the takeaways:Tariffs took center stage during the news conference with Jerome H. Powell. The Fed chair went as far as saying that tariffs likely mean “further progress may be delayed” on getting inflation back to the central bank’s 2 percent target. That recognition materialized in the higher inflation forecasts that officials penciled into new economic projections. By the end of the year, officials estimate that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, will stay stuck at 2.8 percent, before declining to 2.2 percent in 2027.Fed officials paired their higher inflation forecast with lower estimates for economic growth, even as they stuck with previous projections that they would be able to lower interest rates by a half point this year, delivering two quarter-point cuts. The range of possible outcomes was wide, however, with eight policymakers forecasting either no additional cuts or just one this year. Only two thought the Fed would lower rates by 0.75 percentage points, or three cuts of a quarter point this year.In recent months, Mr. Powell has been adamant that the Fed is well positioned to respond to sharp shifts in the trajectory for the economy and could afford to be patient about making rate decisions given the solid foundation of the labor market. He reiterated that point, pushing back on the souring of consumer expectations about inflation and economy that has shown up in recent survey data.While the path forward for interest rates and the economy was the main focus of the March meeting, the Fed’s decision to slow the pace at which it is reducing its balance sheet drew some attention. Mr. Powell said the idea was to reduce the possibility of market ructions in funding markets. More

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    Powell Says the Fed Is in No Hurry to Adjust Rates Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty

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    Jerome H. Powell says the Fed is focused on separating “signal from the noise,” as the president whipsaws on tariffs.Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, said the central bank is focused on the “net effect” of President Trump’s sweeping economic agenda amid high uncertainty about which policies will actually be enacted, as he reiterated that officials are still not in a “hurry” to adjust interest rates.“As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves,” Mr. Powell said at an event on Friday. “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”If inflation stays sticky but the economy remains strong, the Fed chair said the central bank can “maintain policy restraint for longer.” But if either the labor market were to weaken more than expected, or inflation were to rapidly decline, Mr. Powell said officials can “ease policy accordingly.”His comments underscore the delicate balancing act that Fed is trying to navigate at a tenuous moment for the economy.In an interview on Friday, Austan D. Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed and a voting member on this year’s policy-setting committee, warned that a situation in which inflation stayed sticky while growth deteriorated at the same time would be a “harder problem” for the Fed to solve and something that is increasingly “on the radar screen” as a result of the policies that Mr. Trump is pursuing.“Tariffs on intermediate goods are a negative supply shock,” he said, referring to goods that are used to make other products and services for consumers. “If there were large negative supply shocks that were to hit the economy, they would have a tendency to both drive down employment and drive up prices.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Americans Brace for Inflation as Trump’s Tariffs Start to Take Effect

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    Fresh off the worst inflation shock in decades, Americans are once again bracing for higher prices.Expectations about future inflation have started to move up, according to metrics closely watched by officials at the Federal Reserve. So far, the data, including a consumer survey from the University of Michigan and market-based measures of investors’ expectations, does not suggest that price pressures are perceived to be on the verge of spiraling out of control.But the recent jump has been significant enough to warrant attention, stoking yet more uncertainty about an economic outlook already clouded by President Trump’s ever-evolving approach to trade, immigration, taxation and other policy areas. On Tuesday, a survey from the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence fell sharply in February and inflation expectations rose as Americans fretted about the surging price of eggs and the potential impact of tariffs.If those worries persist, it could be a political problem for Mr. Trump, whose promise to control prices was a central part of his message during last year’s campaign. It would also add to the challenge facing policymakers at the Fed, who are already concerned that progress against inflation is stalling out.“This is the kind of thing that can unnerve a policymaker,” Jonathan Pingle, who used to work at the Fed and is now chief economist at UBS, said about the overarching trend in inflation expectations. “We don’t want inflation expectations moving up so much that it makes the Fed’s job harder to get inflation back to 2 percent.”Most economists see keeping inflation expectations in check as crucial to controlling inflation itself. That’s because beliefs about where prices are headed can become a self-fulfilling prophecy: If workers expect the cost of living to rise, they will demand raises to compensate; if businesses expect the cost of materials and labor to rise, they will increase their own prices in anticipation. That can make it much harder for the Fed to bring inflation to heel.That’s what happened in the 1960s and 1970s: Years of high inflation led consumers and businesses to expect prices to keep rising rapidly. Only by raising interest rates to a punishing level and causing a severe recession was the Fed able to bring inflation fully back under control.

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    Expected rate of inflation in the next five years, by political party
    Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumer SentimentBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Tests Fed’s Independence With Order Expanding Authority Over Agencies

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    The Federal Reserve’s independence from the White House has long been enshrined in the law. But an executive order that President Trump signed this week seeking to extend his administration’s reach over independent agencies is prompting concerns about how much further he will go to challenge that separation.Mr. Trump’s directive took aim at regulatory agencies that had typically operated with limited political interference as authorized by Congress.The order partly shielded the Fed by exempting the central bank’s decisions on interest rates. Those are voted on at every meeting by seven presidentially appointed members of the Board of Governors, who typically serve 14-year terms, as well as a rotating set of five presidents from the regional reserve banks.But the order sought to exert authority over how the Fed oversees Wall Street, decisions that are ratified with majority support by the board.The order was the president’s latest attempt to centralize the executive branch’s power over the government. It requires independent organizations to submit proposed rule changes to the White House for review and gives the Office of Management and Budget oversight of how these institutions spend funds and set priorities. It also asserts that the president’s and the Justice Department’s interpretations of the law are binding and that alternative interpretations require authorization.The expansive nature of the order has raised questions about whether Mr. Trump’s decree is legally applicable to an institution like the Fed. It has also fueled speculation that the president — who has a history of trying to influence the central bank’s decision on interest rates — may eventually turn his scrutiny to monetary policy decisions.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    Trump Labor Nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer Faces Pressure at Senate Hearing

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    Asked for her views on pro-labor legislation she backed as a House Republican, Lori Chavez-DeRemer said she would simply serve the president’s agenda.President Trump’s pick as labor secretary faced pointed questions from both parties at her Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday over her past support for pro-union legislation, an issue that could complicate her nomination.The nominee, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a former Republican congresswoman, was pressed repeatedly about her stand on the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, known as the PRO Act — a sweeping labor bill that sought to strengthen collective bargaining rights. She was a co-sponsor of the measure, a top Democratic priority that has yet to win passage, and one of few Republicans to back it.Asked if she continued to support it, Ms. Chavez-DeRemer demurred, saying she was no longer in Congress and would support Mr. Trump’s agenda.“I do not believe that the secretary of labor should write the laws,” she told the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, which conducted the hearing. “It will be up to the Congress to write those laws and to work together. What I believe is that the American worker deserves to be paid attention to.”But in response to questions from Rand Paul of Kentucky, one of several Republican senators who have expressed opposition to her confirmation, she said she no longer backed a portion of the legislation that Mr. Paul said undermined “right to work” states, where unionization efforts face stiff legal and political barriers.The unusual nature of Ms. Chavez-DeRemer’s nomination was apparent in the makeup of the audience in the committee room, which was packed with members of the Teamsters union, identifiable by their logo-emblazoned fleeces and jackets. The nominee played up her personal connection to the union on Wednesday, saying in her opening statement, “My journey is rooted in the values instilled by my father, a proud Teamster who worked tirelessly for over 30 years.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Senate Confirms Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary

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    The Senate on Tuesday voted 51 to 45 to confirm Howard Lutnick to be President Trump’s commerce secretary, putting in place one of the administration’s top economic officials who will help oversee an agenda around tariffs and protectionism.Mr. Lutnick, who was the chief executive of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, became a central economic adviser to Mr. Trump over the past year and led his transition team. He has defended tariffs as a tool to protect U.S. industries from international competition, promoted lower corporate taxes and called for an expansion of energy production.As commerce secretary, Mr. Lutnick will take on a broad portfolio that includes defending U.S. business interests worldwide and overseeing restrictions on technology exports to countries like China.At his confirmation hearing last month, Mr. Lutnick said he would take a tough stance on the department’s oversight of technology sales to China and back up U.S. export controls with the threat of tariffs. He said the recent artificial intelligence technology released by the Chinese start-up DeepSeek had been underpinned by Meta’s open platform and chips sold by the U.S. company Nvidia.“We need to stop helping them,” Mr. Lutnick said of China, adding, “I’m going to be very strong on that.”As the United States resumes economic negotiations with the country, Mr. Lutnick is expected to play a central role. Mr. Trump said the new commerce secretary would oversee the work of the Office of the United States Trade Representative, which is traditionally the hub of trade policy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares109 Views

    in Economy

    Solid Labor Market Gives Fed Cover to Extend Rate Pause

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    Less than six months ago, Federal Reserve officials were wringing their hands about the state of the labor market. No major cracks had emerged, but monthly jobs growth had slowed and the unemployment rate was steadily ticking higher. In a bid to preserve the economy’s strength, the Fed took the unusual step of lowering interest rates by double the magnitude of its typical moves.Those concerns have since evaporated. Officials now exude a rare confidence that the labor market is strong and set to stay that way, providing them latitude to hold rates steady for awhile.The approach constitutes a strategic gamble, which economists by and large expect to work out. That suggests the central bank will take its time before lowering borrowing costs again and await clearer signs that price pressures are easing.“The jobs data just aren’t calling for lower rates right now,” said Jon Faust of the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University, who was a senior adviser to the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell. “If the labor market seriously broke, that may warrant a policy reaction, but other than that, it takes some progress on inflation.”Across a number of metrics, the labor market looks remarkably stable even as it has cooled. Monthly jobs growth has stayed solid and the unemployment rate has barely budged from its current level of 4.1 percent after rising over the summer. The number of Americans out of work and filing for weekly benefits remains low, too.“People can get jobs and employers can find workers,” said Mary C. Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, in an interview earlier this week. “I don’t see any signs right now of weakening.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares199 Views

    in Economy

    Trump’s Trade Move Could Increase Costs for Many Online Goods

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    President Trump’s decision to impose hefty tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China included a little-noticed but significant change to how online purchases will be taxed when they enter the United States.One provision of Mr. Trump’s executive order will increase costs for more than 80 percent of U.S. e-commerce imports. The decision could shift the landscape for online sales from Chinese vendors like Shein and Temu that have swiftly expanded their market share by sending cheap goods into the United States.The president’s order erased a workaround that many companies have taken advantage of in recent years, particularly since Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese products in his first term. The provision, known as the de minimis exception, allowed certain products that were sent directly to consumers from online platforms to come into the United States without facing tariffs, a huge tax advantage.This obscure provision of trade law underpins major business models. Shein, Temu and many sellers on Amazon have used the de minimis exemption to bypass tariffs. The exemption allows packages to be shipped from other countries without paying tariffs, as long as the shipments do not exceed $800 per recipient per day.But critics say the de minimis measure has also helped fuel an American drug crisis. Importers who use de minimis do not have to provide as much information to U.S. Customs and Border Protection as they do with other packages, for ease of processing. That means drugs and the precursors used to make them could be more easily shipped into the United States without the government catching them.De minimis stems from a century-old trade law that was originally intended for shipments that would be too trivial to merit the attention of customs. But the use of this provision has exploded in popularity.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More