Welcome (back) to the working week.
I am thankful to have had the ability to have taken a week’s annual leave given the constraints on getting out of the house this year. The question for those working in the travel, tourism and hospitality sectors is whether that process is going to be made any easier, and quickly enough, to avoid long-term scarring. This week, we might get a little insight into that.
First, there are the airlines. It is not a good time to be in the industry, as Qantas Airways and Air New Zealand will no doubt reveal when they report quarterly and full-year earnings respectively. The future also looks none too bright either given concerns about climate change.
But hope springs eternal within the sector. This week, the UK’s second largest airport Gatwick — which is suffering badly itself — will kick off its campaign for expansion. It wants government backing for its plan to convert its second runway, currently only used in emergencies, to a permanent facility to add 55,000 extra flights a year.
Another indicator of the future will come with consumer confidence data, first from the EU, then for Germany, France and Norway, and quarterly gross domestic product estimates for Germany and the US. The UK government will (hopefully) contribute to some clarity with an update on its foreign travel traffic light system.
What is your view about the economic picture in the coming months? Drop me a line at jonathan.moules@ft.com.
Companies
One group with something to cheer about this week is Hays, the recruitment company reporting full-year earnings on Thursday. The rebound in employment in the UK, its home market, has been a source of hope amid the Covid-19 gloom not just for this group but the economy in general, and expectations are high after Hays reported a 39 per cent increase in net fees during its fourth quarter. Attention will be focused on how much this business growth has cost given that consultants are paid on commission and hiring will be necessary to service new contracts. During the pandemic Hays cut its cost base by 13 per cent. The question now is whether it has been able to make that stick.
Economic data
A key set of economic statistics released this week will be the monthly purchasing managers’ index reports from IHS Markit, covering France, Germany, the eurozone, Japan, the UK and the US. Although not official data, the international nature of the PMI calculation makes it a useful tool for comparing the relative economic progress of these countries.
Finally, a plug for a special Financial Times event this week. You can join FT correspondents and guests to discuss The Fall of Afghanistan: What Next? Register for an FT subscriber webinar on Wednesday August 25 at 3:30pm CET/2:30pm BST/09:30am EDT.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
EU, European Commission flash consumer confidence numbers
France, eurozone, Germany, Japan, UK, US: IHS Markit Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data
UK, CBI monthly industrial trends survey
UK, Office for National Statistics household income, spending and wealth data
Tuesday
Germany, Q2 GDP growth figures
US, Department of Commerce July residential sales figures
US, State Street monthly investor confidence Index
RESULTS: Best Buy Q2, Polyus Q2, PureTech H1, Wood H1
Wednesday
US, Durable goods orders
RESULTS: Grafton Group H1, National Bank of Canada Q3, Qantas Airways H1
Thursday
Germany, GfK monthly consumer confidence survey
Nigeria, Q2 GDP figures
Russia, Inflation outlook
UK, Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders monthly car production figures
UK, Bank of England capital issuance data
US, Bureau of Economic Analysis Q2 GDP estimate
US, Initial jobless claims
RESULTS: Air New Zealand FY, Bouygues H1, Brunello Cucinelli Q2, CRH H1, Dell Technologies Q2, Hays FY, HP Q3, Polymetal International H1, TCS Group Q2
Friday
China, Monthly Hong Kong property data
France, National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies consumer confidence figures
Norway, Monthly consumer confidence figures
RESULTS: Lukoil Q2
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
UK, Deadline for all 16- and 17-year-olds in England to be offered a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine
25th anniversary of Bin Laden declaring war on the US
Tuesday
Japan, Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games begin
US, vice-president Kamala Harris begins tour of south-east Asia to strengthen American regional leadership with visit to Singapore
US, Kathy Hochul becomes first woman to lead New York state when Andrew Cuomo steps down
UN Security Council meeting to discuss Syria’s political and humanitarian issues
UN Human Rights Council is to hold an extraordinary session on Afghanistan
Wednesday
UK, International Beatleweek Festival starts in Liverpool
UN Security Council debates Iraq mission and North Korea sanctions
Thursday
UK, Election result for the new general secretary of the Unite trade union, the largest single donor to the Labour party
UK, Update on the government’s foreign travel traffic light system
UK, Home Office publishes immigration statistics
Friday
US, Annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium of central bankers. Downgraded last week to a one-day virtual event owing to Covid-19 risks
UK, Reading and Leeds music festivals begin. Both are sold out.
Source: Economy - ft.com
