Since the early weeks of the pandemic, rumours have swirled that coronavirus might have escaped from a laboratory in the Chinese city of Wuhan. Now the theory is again being taken seriously. President Joe Biden last week ordered US intelligence services to investigate whether Covid-19 “emerged from human contact with an infected animal or from a laboratory accident” and report back in 90 days. It would be far better for China finally to allow unfettered access to international investigators — unlikely as that may be — to hunt for the answer.
A leak from a lab is only a hypothesis, based entirely on circumstantial evidence, but a plausible one. Wuhan’s Huanan seafood market where Covid-19 was initially detected is ideal for “zoonotic transfer” of a virus across the species barrier — wild animals were in close contact with each other and with humans. Yet it is also only 12km from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which houses a large collection of coronaviruses; another institute, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is even closer. Lab escapes have caused disease outbreaks before.
Determining the truth is not about apportioning blame. It is vital to understand the origin of a disease that has killed at least 3.5m people if we are to prevent similar outbreaks in future. If zoonotic spillover was the cause, knowing the mechanisms could determine where changes are needed in animal handling and interaction with humans, and help in designing a global early warning system of future risks. If the virus came from a lab — and was somehow altered there — lessons can be drawn on the transparency and safety of bioresearch globally.
Even US spy agencies’ formidable resources may be insufficient, however, to provide an answer with any certainty. And in a “post-truth” world, not just Beijing but plenty of other countries will reject any US claims to have uncovered coronavirus’s Chinese origin as information warfare.
Instead, the world needs a full scientific investigation carried out by credible experts chosen by a multilateral body, and given access to all the data, people and locations it needs. For all its difficulties during the pandemic, the best body to handle this is the World Health Organization. Indeed, the lab escape hypothesis has re-emerged in large part as a result of an inconclusive WHO probe that was hampered by China’s lack of full co-operation. The WHO’s March report concluded transfer from a bat, via an intermediate host, was “likely to very likely”, and a laboratory incident “extremely unlikely”.
Yet while investigators found Covid-like illness in late 2019 in some people associated with the Huanan market, the Sars-Cov-2 virus has never been found in an animal — so the source remains unknown. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, said the assessment of a possible lab leak had not been “extensive enough”.
Beijing seems to prefer the source to remain a mystery. China pressed WHO investigators to keep open the possibility that the virus arrived in Wuhan on frozen food; Chinese media have pushed the idea it was imported from elsewhere in the world. Donald Trump hardly made it easier for Beijing to be more open by insisting he would “make China pay” for the virus, though Biden has dropped such language.
In its professed support for free trade in the face of Trump-era protectionism, and in its vaccine diplomacy, however, Beijing has tried to portray itself as a responsible global citizen. It may fear loss of face if proven conclusively to be Covid’s source. In fact, China would gain respect if it did switch, belatedly, to transparency and co-operation.
Source: Economy - ft.com
