Hello and welcome to the working week.
Political change is in the air. First, what we know will happen. There will be new leadership for the European Parliament with a vote for the president in a secret ballot on Monday.
It follows the death of David Sassoli last week, although the Italian Democrat was due to step down this week under a power-sharing deal with the centre-right European People’s party. He is likely to be succeeded by Roberta Metsola, a Maltese MEP selected by the EPP as its candidate for president.
We do not know for definite whether Emmanuel Macron will run in France’s presidential elections later this year. But we do know he will be addressing the European Parliament on Wednesday to give a speech to mark France’s assumption of the revolving EU presidency. He will no doubt be aware of the political capital to be gained from this appearance.
Then there is the great unknown swirling around the British government’s “partygate” scandals. This could be the week that Sue Gray completes her official report, detailing what happened at certain events. It feels like the drinking puns have all but been exhausted — run dry has surely been used by someone by now — but they seem so apt for a prime minister facing an ignominious ejection from his job. Having said that, it is a brave soul that bets against Boris Johnson’s remarkable survival instinct, as this comprehensive analysis by the FT’s political team laid bare last week.
Then there are the outside forces threatening to overwhelm a government. Watch out for further news from the frontline between Russia and Ukraine, where tensions will not be relieved by the latter commemorating its Day of Unity on Saturday, the day after the former commemorates the anniversary of Lenin’s death.
Economic data
Whether or not you think the spikes in inflation around the world are temporary or entrenched, the story about rising living costs has a long way to run.
This week’s instalment will be sustained by consumer and producer price index data from Germany, the UK, Japan, Canada and Italy plus the publication of the minutes of the European Central Bank Governing Council’s December meeting.
The Bank of Japan holds its monthly meeting and is expected to upgrade its growth and inflation forecasts, but leave policy rates and other measures unchanged. The Fed goes into “purdah” ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on January 26.
China will set its monthly loan prime rates while Turkey is expected to keep rates unchanged — no doubt a relief to those hit by the collapse of the lira after 500 basis points of rate cuts in quick succession.
Companies
Earnings season will be in full swing and the US markets are expecting a bumper crop of results. The pandemic has been boom time for streaming services — with the trickle down being felt by more traditional industries.
Netflix arguably had its strongest-ever slate of original content in the fourth quarter, with the Squid Game craze continuing its run and the much anticipated release of Don’t Look Up.
But some analysts say the streaming pioneer may still have trouble reaching the consensus expectation of 8.7m new subscribers when it reports results on Thursday — mainly due to rising competition from its peers, which have been spending significant sums on new television programmes and films. MoffettNathanson, the investment research firm, last week lowered its estimate of new subscribers at Netflix in the fourth quarter to 8.6m from 9.6m.
Delivery app firms have also prospered during the pandemic — and most recently during the desire to stay in to avoid Omicron, as #techft lead writer Chris Nuttall noted in his latest newsletter. Expect this to be reflected in the trading update from Deliveroo on Thursday.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Canada, monthly manufacturing survey and business outlook
China: Q4 GDP, monthly industrial production and retail sales figures
International Labour Organization report on employment trends in 2022
Italy, final consumer price index (CPI) monthly inflation data
Japan, Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting begins in Tokyo
Repsol Q4 trading statement
UK, Rightmove monthly house price index
Tuesday
Germany, Zew financial market survey expectations
Opec monthly oil market report
UK, labour market statistics plus monthly insolvency data
Results: BNY Mellon Q4, Charles Schwab Q4, Goldman Sachs Q4
Wednesday
BHP Billiton operational review for the half year ended December 31 2021
Burberry Q3 trading update
Canada, monthly CPI data plus wholesale trade figures
Germany, final CPI data
International Energy Agency monthly oil market report
Richemont Q3 trading update
UK, CPI and producer price index (PPI) figures
US, new residential construction figures
Results: Alcoa Q4, ASML Q4, Bank of America Q4, Morgan Stanley Q4, Procter & Gamble Q2
Thursday
Deliveroo Q4 trading update
EU, publication of the minutes of the European Central Bank Governing Council’s December monetary policy meeting plus monthly inflation figures
France, business confidence data
Germany, monthly PPI of industrial products
Japan, CPI data
UK, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors monthly residential market survey
US, National Association of Realtors monthly home sales data plus Philadelphia Fed business outlook
Results: Netflix Q4, Union Pacific Q4
Friday
Canada, monthly retail trade figures
EU, flash consumer confidence figures
Japan, Bank of Japan releases minutes of its December policy meeting
UK, monthly retail sales figures plus CBI quarterly business confidence survey
Results: Schlumberger Q4
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Australia, the first Grand Slam tournament of the tennis year, the Australian Open, begins in Melbourne
EU, election to replace European Parliament president David Sassoli, who died on January 10, plus Ecofin Council meeting of economic and finance ministers
France, 90th Monte Carlo Rally opens at its home base in Monaco
US, Martin Luther King Day
Tuesday
EU Ecofin Council of economic and finance ministers meets in Brussels
UK, Winnie the Pooh Day, celebrating the birthday of its author A A Milne
Wednesday
Barbados, general election, called when country became a republic in late 2021
EU, Emmanuel Macron addresses the European Parliament in Strasbourg as France takes the revolving presidency of the Council of the European Union
UK, Amazon will stop accepting Visa credit cards issued in Britain
Thursday
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces the location of the minute hand on the Doomsday Clock that records the perceived threat of global apocalypse
US, Sundance Film Festival begins both online and physically in Park City, Utah
Friday
Russia, anniversary of Lenin’s death in 1924
Saturday
Ukraine, Day of Unity and Liberty marking the signing of the Unification Act on 22 January 1919
Sunday
Northern Cyprus, parliamentary elections
Haiti, first round of voting in presidential election
Source: Economy - ft.com
