China has at the last minute delayed the release of eagerly anticipated third-quarter economic data, including its closely watched gross domestic product growth rate, which were due to be issued in the middle of the 20th Chinese Communist party conference.
No explanation for the postponement was given in an update to an official statistics calendar, and no new dates were provided. The National Bureau of Statistics did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The latest figures were originally set to be published on Tuesday, a politically sensitive time with China’s president Xi Jinping expected to use the party congress to extend his powers for a third term and outline the country’s overarching policy approach.
The economic data were expected to highlight China’s persisting economic weaknesses, including a worsening property crisis and Covid lockdowns in dozens of big cities this year that stifled consumption and effectively closed the country off from the rest of the world.
Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast GDP growth of 3.3 per cent year on year in the third quarter, compared with a 5.5 per cent full-year growth target that was already the lowest in three decades.
China recorded anaemic growth of just 0.4 per cent year on year in the second quarter.
Iris Pang, greater China chief economist at ING, noted that delays of less high-profile statistical releases, such as customs data, were more common in China, with figures often pushed back to avoid coinciding with big events.
“It’s likely about the noise that could come from these statistics,” she said. “With the 20th party congress [in session] it could give a mixed message or incorrect signal to markets and make things volatile.”
In another announcement that analysts said appeared to be orchestrated to correspond with the congress, the biggest state-run Chinese banks said they had increased lending by 22 per cent to $1.3tn in the first nine months of the year.
The Rmb9.53tn in new loans indicated that state groups were being directed to support the country’s economy battered by coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and a property market crisis.
Most of the new cash has been directed towards Xi’s favoured industries, including manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology and innovation sectors. Four of the big banks also disclosed at least a 25 per cent boost in funding for “green loans”, or lending for clean energy projects, in the first three quarters.
State-backed financial groups have also been urged to cut loan and mortgage interest rates as Beijing tries to shore up economic growth. But despite the injection of banking credit, China’s state lenders have been unable to significantly improve business sentiment.
While many experts believe long-term structural problems such as weakening domestic demand and the housing market crisis threaten the stability of the Chinese economy, Xi did not offer hints on changes in policy in a long opening speech on Sunday.
China has avoided dramatic moves to stimulate the economy, and is also encumbered with a weakening renminbi against the dollar.
“People do expect more policy action but for this year frankly it is too late,” said Bert Hofman, director of the East Asian institute at the National University of Singapore. “They have adjusted their expectations for 2022.”
Xi on Sunday said the country would “better leverage the fundamental role of consumption in stimulating economic growth” as well as addressing “unbalanced development”.
Economists at Morgan Stanley said the party congress had nonetheless “reaffirmed that growth remains one of the top priorities”. They pointed to the target of a “moderately prosperous” society by 2035, which they estimate may correspond to a per capita GDP of $20,000.
Source: Economy - ft.com
