CPI Is Expected to Put Inflation at 7.8% for February 2022

Prices in the year though February were expected to have risen 7.8 percent, which would be the fastest pace of inflation in 40 years as gas prices increased and an array of goods and services became more expensive.

Fresh Consumer Price Index data is set for release Thursday morning, and that estimate — the median in a Bloomberg survey of economists — underscores the grim reality facing economic policymakers. Climbing prices are hitting consumers in the pocketbook, causing their confidence to fall and stretching household budgets. The burden is falling most intensely on lower-income households, which devote a big chunk of their budgets to daily necessities that are rapidly becoming costlier.

The quickest inflation in most Americans’ lifetimes is hurting President Biden politically, and the challenge could grow temporarily worse amid fallout from sanctions and other economic responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has already pushed gas prices higher. Rising prices tend to make voters unhappy, posing trouble for Democrats ahead of the midterm elections in November.

They are also a problem for the Federal Reserve, which is in charge of achieving price stability. The central bank has signaled it will raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting next week, likely the first in a series of moves meant to increase the cost of borrowing and spending money and slow down the economy. By reducing consumption and slowing the labor market, the Fed is able to take some pressure off inflation over time.

“Mortgage rates will go up, the rates for car loans — all of those rates that affect consumers’ buying decisions,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, told Congress last week. “Housing prices won’t go up as much, and equity prices won’t go up as much, so people will spend less.”

Even as the Fed prepares to rein in demand, high gas costs tied to the conflict in Ukraine threaten to keep inflation elevated for longer. They could become a serious issue for central bank policymakers if they help convince consumers that the burst in prices will last. If people begin to expect inflation, they may change their behavior in ways that make it more permanent — accepting price increases more readily and asking for bigger raises to keep up.

This is just the latest instance, as far as prices go, in which what can go wrong does seem to be going wrong.

Fast inflation began to kick in early last year, and economists initially predicted that it would fade by the end of 2021 as the economy reopened from the pandemic and conditions returned to normal.

Instead, turmoil in supply chains collided with strong consumer demand for goods, and price gains accelerated. Now, how quickly and how much prices will moderate in 2022 are increasingly uncertain as the war in Ukraine threatens to keep shipping routes tangled and key parts scarce. Ukraine is an important producer of neon, which could keep computer chips in short supply, perpetuating the shortages that have plagued automakers. Higher energy costs could ricochet through other industries.

There are still reasons think price gains will slow at least somewhat. Starting in the March data, they will be lapping high readings from last year, which should mechanically bring down the year-over-year measure. But it is unclear when they will recede to the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal. The central bank defines that target using a separate inflation index, but one that is also elevated.