in

BofA only top brokerage to raise forecast for Fed’s 2024 rate cuts

(Reuters) -BofA Global Research was the only major brokerage to raise its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest-rate cuts for the rest of 2024, a day after the U.S. central bank delivered an outsized cut.

The Wall Street brokerage said it expects a 75-basis point reduction in the fourth quarter, compared with its earlier forecast for two 25-bp cuts in the Fed’s November and December meetings.

Fed policymakers themselves have projected the benchmark interest rate will fall by another half a percentage point by 2024-end.

The central bank announced a larger-than-usual 50 bps reduction on Wednesday that Chair Jerome Powell said was meant to show policymakers’ commitment to sustaining a low unemployment rate now that inflation has eased.

Following the bigger rate cut, “we are skeptical that the Fed will want to deliver a hawkish surprise”, BofA economists said.

The brokerage expects another 125 bps of cuts in 2025 to bring the terminal rate to 2.75%-3.00%, from the current federal funds target rate of 4.75%-5.00%.

That compares with Fed policymakers projecting a full percentage point cut for next year, and half a percentage point in 2026, while cautioning the outlook that far into the future is necessarily uncertain.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, retained its forecast of two 25- bp cuts in the November and December meetings this year, but said it now expects consecutive 25 bps cuts from November 2024 through June 2025, bringing the terminal rate to 3.25%-3.50% by mid-2025.

It earlier expected quarterly pacing of cuts in 2025.

Citigroup maintained its expected size of cuts this year at 125 bps, but now expects a 25 bps reduction in December against its earlier forecast of a 50 bps cut.

Other brokerages like Macquarie and Deutsche Bank have retained their calls of two 25 bps rate cuts this year.


Source: Economy - investing.com

Europe’s banks may lack enough loan loss cover for property slump, says Moody’s

Fed’s next rate cut will be smaller, traders bet