In light of revised data on household income and spending, they propose that lower interest rates might help stimulate a rebound in borrowing, thereby supporting consumer spending and possibly preventing a recession.
Despite the optimistic outlook, the analysts caution that “household balance sheets have the capacity to lever up.”
However, they emphasize that mortgages constitute the largest segment of household debt, and it may take considerable time for mortgage rates to decline sufficiently to invigorate housing activity. The firm believes the lag could hinder immediate benefits from the rate cuts.
BCA Research encourages the monitoring of specific household debt and housing market indicators in the coming months that could potentially challenge their current recessionary outlook.
They are specifically interested in signs that could indicate a shift in economic conditions, which may affect their predictions and investment strategies.
Despite these considerations, the analysts remain cautious. They state, “We don’t yet see sufficient evidence to deviate from our US recession call and portfolio positioning,” which currently emphasizes long-duration investments, curve steepeners, and an underweight stance on spread products.
BCA continues to add to its list of indicators to monitor, signaling an openness to adjusting its views if economic conditions evolve.
While lower rates could theoretically stimulate borrowing and spending, BCA Research is not yet convinced that these measures will significantly alter the economic trajectory.
Source: Economy - investing.com
