The March data increased confidence among economists and investors that robust hiring and rising wages can continue to coexist while inflation eases.
Another month, another burst of better-than-expected job gains.
Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February. Expectations of a recession among experts, once widespread, are now increasingly rare.
It was the 39th straight month of job growth. And employment levels are now more than three million greater than forecast by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just before the pandemic shock.
The resilient data generally increased confidence among economists and market investors that the U.S. economy has reached a healthy equilibrium in which a steady roll of commercial activity, growing employment and rising wages can coexist, despite the high interest rate levels of the last two years.
From late 2021 to early 2023, inflation was outstripping wage gains, but that also now appears to have firmly shifted, even as wage increases decelerate from their roaring rates of growth in 2022. Average hourly earnings for workers rose 0.3 percent in March from the previous month and were up 4.1 percent from March 2023.
Wage growth continues to slow
Year-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation
0
+2
+4
+6
+8%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
+4.1%
in March
+3.2%
in Feb.
Consumer Price Index
Avg. hourly earnings
“The vanishingly few areas to criticize this labor market are melting away,” said Andrew Flowers, the chief labor economist at Appcast, a recruitment advertising firm.
Hiring jumped across industries
Change in jobs in March 2024, by sector
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+88,000 jobs
Education and health
+71,000
Government
Leisure and
hospitality
+49,000
+39,000
Construction
+17,600
Retail
Business
services
+7,000
Manufacturing
No change
+88,000 jobs
Education and health
+71,000
Government
Leisure and hospitality
+49,000
Construction
+39,000
+17,600
Retail
+7,000
Business services
Manufacturing
No change
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Source: Economy - nytimes.com
