Uncertainty About Economic Policy Is Hampering Business Decisions

It is an axiom heard countless times in business school lecture halls and on corporate earnings calls: Uncertainty is bad for business.

The U.S. economy is about to test that proposition like never before.

The first weeks of the second Trump administration have been a dizzying whirlwind of economic policy moves: A spending freeze was declared, then rescinded. Federal programs, and even entire agencies, have been suspended or shut down. Tariffs have been threatened, announced, canceled, delayed or enacted — sometimes in a matter of days or even hours. Measures of economic policy uncertainty have soared to levels normally associated with recessions and global crises.

Business leaders — many of whom cheered President Trump’s election victory, expecting lower taxes and reduced regulation — have been left shaking their heads.

“Your guess is as good as mine what’s happening in Washington,” said Nicholas Pinchuk, chief executive of the automotive toolmaker Snap-on.

“So far what we’re seeing is a lot of costs and a lot of chaos,” Jim Farley, the chief executive of Ford Motor, told investors at a conference in New York this week.

“It’s like your head is spinning with what’s coming down — you just never know,” said Chad Coulter, founder and chief executive of Biscuit Belly, a chain of breakfast restaurants based in Louisville, Ky.