Coronavirus death tolls and infection rates continue to rise around the world, leaving governments poised to introduce more measures to stop the spread of the pandemic.
In the UK, where the death rate has risen above 1,200, the government has warned that the national lockdown may continue beyond the initial three-week period and further restrictions could be imposed to ensure the health service can cope with the coronavirus crisis.
In the US, residents of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have been warned against travelling outside their states, which have been hit harder than anywhere in the US by Covid-19.
Ken Ofori-Atta, Ghana’s finance minister, has said Africa has reached a “break the glass moment”, an emergency in which international actors need to take drastic action if the world’s poorest continent is to avoid a human and economic catastrophe.
Few central banks are slated to set policy, and company reporting has all but dried up in the UK after the Financial Conduct Authority “strongly requested” all listed companies observe a two-week moratorium on the publication of full-year results because of the pandemic.
Only a few companies will provide updates and the US will also be a near corporate desert for earnings reports.
So with little scheduled central bank activity and few corporate earnings reports on the horizon, the focus will fall on economic data over the next few days.
The March US non-farm payrolls report this Friday will be the big one to watch, following fresh on the heels of last week’s disastrous jobless claims figures, which surged to a record 3.3m. Analysts expect the March figures to be the worst in a decade.
There will also be labour market updates from the eurozone, Germany, Italy and Japan, purchasing managers’ index figures from China, among others, as well as eurozone inflation data.
Hong Kong retail sales and South Korean trade data will also shed light on the economic damage that coronavirus has brought in a region that has been at the frontline of the battle against the economic fallout for two months now.
There may also be some word on the outlook for the postponed Tokyo Olympics when officials hold a press conference in the city on Monday following a meeting of senior games organisers.
Back in the UK, Keir Starmer is widely expected to win the race to take over from Jeremy Corbyn as the next leader of the opposition Labour party when the result of the membership ballot is announced on Saturday.
Economic data
The US non-farm payrolls report for March on Friday will be the first to take in businesses shutting down because of coronavirus but the picture will be far from complete, as most of the data will have been collected before March 14, meaning it will not take into account the full impact of Covid-19 given that the bulk of workplaces closed in the second half of March.
However, it is still forecast to be the worst reading since 2010 and a precursor for much worse to come. Miguel Faria-e-Castro at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis has released “back of the envelope” estimates for the second quarter, predicting the unemployment rate could exceed 32 per cent, with more than 50m people out of work.
The weekly jobless claims report on Thursday is set to show another huge wave of Americans filing for unemployment benefits and could break the 4m barrier this time.
China has PMI readings for March on Tuesday and regional manufacturing surveys on Wednesday. The PMIs will be closely watched as they were one of the first economic indicators to reveal how badly the coronavirus outbreak had hit the world’s second-largest economy in February.
Eurozone inflation data on Tuesday is set to show a sharp fall due to the Covid-19 lockdown measures and the drop in the oil price.
Also on Tuesday Hong Kong’s February retail sales are expected to fall by about 40 per cent year on year due to a slowdown in domestic and tourism demand after the island clamped down on the entry of visitors shortly after the Covid-19 outbreak.
A snapshot of Japan’s status heading into the new financial year will come on Monday when unemployment and industrial production numbers are due to be released. Figures from large retailers will round out the picture of an economy where schools have been shut since the end of February and tourism from China has dwindled to almost nothing.
Trade data from South Korea on Wednesday and Canada on Thursday will add to the picture for global commerce.
Companies
Wizz Air will have a trading update on Wednesday, just over a week after the budget carrier grounded most of its fleet.
Saga is expected to announce a series of cost-saving measures in its finals, out on Thursday when coronavirus is likely to be shown to have taken its toll because of travel sector exposure.
Also set to update this week are Smiths Group, in the news as it is involved in plans to produce ventilators to treat coronavirus, and FTSE 250 water and waste group Pennon.
Source: Economy - ft.com
