Hello and welcome to the working week.
Groundhog Day is coming up. I know. Have we ever escaped it since the pandemic struck? The headline news this week certainly feels strangely familiar: UK prime minister Boris Johnson on the ropes, Ukraine and Russia on the brink of conflict. Are we really about to witness a return of the Soviet empire?
Fortunately, there is cause for celebration this week with the lunar new year on Tuesday — get some tips about the wisdom of investing in China from this FT video.
There is also change afoot with the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in France, England and Scotland, enabling the Old Firm football match in Glasgow to be played in front of a decent-sized crowd at Celtic Park for the first time in what feels like an age on Wednesday.
Are you thankful for the certainty or eager for some change? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com.
Economic data
It is a busy week for economic news with further indications on inflation and unemployment in developed countries with purchasing managers’ index data out to provide some international comparisons.
The UK interest-rate decision will come on Thursday and a rise is expected, despite last week’s data pointing to a slowdown in the economy. After the Bank of England’s communications fiasco late last year, it has decided to respond by saying less rather than more. A rate rise will be the first back-to-back tightening of monetary policy since 2004, fuelling expectations that more will follow.
Companies
We are midseason for quarterly earnings with more Big Tech and bank results. These sectors have been among the winners from the pandemic, but they now face challenges as developed economies emerge from the crisis.
Meta, the parent of Facebook and Instagram, which reports on Wednesday, has been seeking new revenue sources to power its future growth. It has also been stung by recent scandals over content moderation and privacy, contributing to a drop in popularity for its main social networking products, which in turn threatens its $85bn-a-year advertising-based business model.
A number of carmakers will be arriving on the Wall Street forecourt and analysts will be looking to see whether they are any closer to making technological breakthroughs, such as on the perhaps overhyped driverless car.
General Motors, which reports on Tuesday, is funding the transition to electric vehicles even as analysts expect to see revenue and earnings decline in the fourth quarter.
The company said last week that it would spend more than $4bn to convert a Michigan factory to build electric pick-up trucks and another $2.6bn with LG Chem to build a battery cell plant.
Analysts polled by FactSet predicted the automaker would earn $1.16 per share in the fourth quarter, down from $1.93 a year earlier, on revenue that has fallen 5 per cent to $36bn over the same period.
Key economic and company reports
Here is what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
EU, Italy, Mexico: flash Q4 GDP data
Evraz Q4 trading update
Germany, preliminary consumer price index (CPI) data for January
Italy, Japan: monthly unemployment figures
UK, quarterly estimates of government deficit and debt plus British Retail Consortium’s monthly economic briefing
Results: KPN Q4, Mitsubishi Motors Q3, Ryanair Q2, UBS Q4
Tuesday
Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia holds its monthly meeting
Brazil, Banco Central do Brasil’s monetary policy committee meeting begins
Canada, monthly GDP data
France, provisional CPI figures for January
Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK, US: IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data
EU, European Central Bank Q4 euro area quarterly bank lending survey plus Eurostat unemployment figures
Germany, monthly labour market figures
India, Union Budget
UK, Bank of England’s monthly money and credit figures
Results: Alphabet Q4, ExxonMobil Q4, General Motors Q4, Lundin Energy FY, Starbucks Q1, Tele2 Q4, UPS Q4
Wednesday
EU, flash monthly eurozone inflation data
Italy, monthly CPI data
UK, Nationwide house price index
Vodafone Q3 trading update
Results: AbbVie Q4, Banco Santander FY, Ferrari FY, Meta Q4, Novartis Q4, Panasonic Q3, Sony Q3, Spotify Q4, Telenor Q4
Thursday
Compass Group Q1 trading update
EU, European Central Bank monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Eurozone main refinancing rate plus retail sales figures
Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: IHS Markit services PMI data
South Korea, Turkey: CPI data
UK, Bank of England bank rate decision plus corporate bond and gilt purchase target
Results: ABB Q4, Amazon Q4, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Q3, BT Q3, ConocoPhillips Q4, Dassault Systemes Q4, Eli Lilly and Co Q4, Enel FY, ICE Q4, Infineon Technologies Q3, ING Q4, Merck & Co Q4, Nintendo Q3, Nokia FY, Norton LifeLock Q3, OMV Q4, Prudential Financial Q4, Ralph Lauren Q3, Roche FY, Shell Q4, Skanska FY, Takeda Q3
Friday
Canada, monthly unemployment figures
France, industrial production index
Germany, monthly factory order figures
Eurozone, France, Germany, UK: IHS Markit construction PMI data
US, monthly motor vehicle sales, payrolls and unemployment figures
Results: Aon Q4, Bristol-Myers Squibb Q4, Carlsberg FY, Intesa Sanpaolo FY, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Q4, Sanofi-Aventis Q4, Sumitomo Q3, Suzuki Q3
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Norway, annual Arctic Frontiers conference begins in Tromso
UK, Scottish office workers will be allowed to return to their desks and there will be no limits on care home visits in England as lockdown rules are eased
Tuesday
Austria, mandatory vaccination laws come into effect
Lunar new year celebrations, marking the start of the Year of the Tiger
Myanmar, anniversary of the military overthrow of the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup
Russia assumes the presidency of the United Nations Security Council
UK, 50th winner of the Costa Book of the Year announced in London
US, National Freedom Day commemorating the date when Abraham Lincoln signed the 13th Amendment abolishing slavery
Wednesday
France, most of the country’s remaining Covid restrictions are expected to be lifted, including the reopening of nightclubs
UK, Glasgow’s Celtic and Rangers game kicks off at Celtic Park, the first Old Firm derby since restrictions on fan numbers was lifted in mid-January
US, Groundhog Day celebrated in the Pennsylvania town of Punxsutawney
Thursday
Bafta announces the nominations for the EE British Academy Film Awards
By-election for the Southend West seat previously held by Conservative MP David Amess, who was killed last October
Friday
Denmark, Copenhagen’s annual Light Festival begins
China, Summit between Chinese president Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Beijing
UK, deadline for a deal to be agreed between the mayor of London and the government to cover Transport for London’s pandemic revenue shortfall
Saturday
Six Nations rugby tournament opens with Ireland playing Wales at the Aviva stadium, Dublin, and Scotland playing England at Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Sunday
Costa Rica, general election
Queen Elizabeth has reigned for 70 years, the first British monarch to reach this Platinum Jubilee milestone
To hear the news in under three minutes, listen to the FT’s new audio digest, updated three times a day, every weekday
Source: Economy - ft.com
