Outbound shipments in February were expected to increase by 18.2% from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 11 economists, while imports were expected to rise 25.2%.
“We expect a solid growth in sales of key exporting items, including semiconductors, but with a continued rise in oil prices, the trade balance will remain in the negative territory,” said Park Sung-woo, an analyst at DB Financial Investment.
The economy reported a $4.83 billion trade deficit in January, as imports increased by 35.3%, outpacing a 15.2% rise in exports.
Economies around the world have suffered from a global chip supply shortage and other production bottlenecks because of the rapid spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
The supply chain disruption from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is seen limited for now, but it could pose further risks in longer term, with the chip industry taking a hit.
The full-month trade data will be published on Tuesday at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
In the same Reuters poll, economists projected the consumer price index in February would rise 3.5% from a year earlier, slower than in January but not far from a decade-high 3.8% rise in November.
That would mark the fifth month of inflation above 3%.
The Bank of Korea sharply upgraded its inflation forecast for 2022 to 3.1% from 2% and signalled the bank may need a quicker pace of tightening should price pressures build further because of the Ukraine crisis.
On Thursday however, the bank kept the base rate steady at 1.25% to gauge the impact of its back-to-back hikes before raising again.
Friday’s poll also showed eight economists gave median estimates of a 0.6% decrease in industrial output in January from December.
Source: Economy - investing.com
