The most positive aspect of Monday’s talks between US president Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is that they took place at all. Relations between the world’s two largest economies have been going downhill with alarming speed; according to some reports, Chinese officials were recently stonewalling over preparations for a meeting between the two men on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali. But the world has already seen tensions over Ukraine erupt into a full-blown invasion by Russia’s Vladimir Putin. A Chinese attack on Taiwan would be even more catastrophic.
A shift in US-China relations has been necessitated by Beijing’s nationalist and authoritarian turn under Xi over the past decade, its human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and its increasingly vocal calls for “reunification” with the self-governing island of Taiwan. But Beijing was angered by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August — which prompted a military show of strength by China — and Biden has gone further than previous presidents in pledging to defend the island. Last month, the White House imposed stringent export controls targeting China’s advanced semiconductor industry.
Washington’s determination to restrain Beijing’s ambitions to surpass it as the world’s leading military and economic power means further decoupling from China is inevitable. But Washington must at the same time manage relations with Beijing with care. It should be guided by three principles: that decoupling should not crash the global economy; that war must be avoided; and that China’s co-operation is still needed on a range of global issues.
There are some similarities with the US-Soviet detente that took shape some years after the 1962 Cuban missile crisis — though the US and Soviet Union had already come to the brink of nuclear war, and economic ties were paltry. Detente was rooted in part in building contacts between functionaries at various levels. The US and China similarly each need to understand how the other thinks. It is positive, then, that Biden and Xi agreed to designate officials to keep talking. A potential path is open to more constructive relations.
China could begin by restoring judicial co-operation on issues such as extradition, and on drug enforcement, as well as bilateral climate change talks, which Beijing suspended after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Resuming military-to-military communications is also essential to mutual confidence and security.
For its part, the US has some room for manoeuvre in how strictly it implements its controls on semiconductors. It also has scope for restraint in its language over Taiwan. Biden took care on Monday to insist there would be no change to the “One China” policy, under which Washington acknowledges, but does not endorse, Beijing’s view that Taiwan is part of China. Biden has capacity to engage in some behind-the-scenes manoeuvring should the next House Speaker seek to repeat Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan — though the president has maintained that such initiatives are Congress’s prerogative.
In the longer term, Washington’s drive to slow Beijing’s acquisition of leading-edge military technologies should be combined with co-operation in areas of mutual concern. These extend not just to the green transition, but also nuclear proliferation, pandemic prevention, and debt restructuring for emerging markets.
Biden insisted in Bali the US would “continue to compete vigorously” with Beijing. But, as former Australian premier and China expert Kevin Rudd notes, competition between the two has been perilously “unmanaged”. To avert a disastrous deterioration, the time has come for some careful management.
Source: Economy - ft.com
