- Some experts have reversed recession predictions and embraced a so-called soft landing for the economy.
- The rosier outlook has prompted talks between advisors and their clients, including possible shifts for investment portfolios.
- Experts are eyeing higher cash yields, adding to bond allocations and increasing bond duration as the Federal Reserve weighs a policy shift.
“The fact that we may see a soft landing or avoid a recession altogether doesn’t mean people should change their strategy of building up a safety net and hopefully recession-proofing their portfolio,” added Glassman, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
‘Investors are finally getting paid to wait’
We’re now getting paid to have money on the sidelines.Barry GlassmanFounder and president of Glassman Wealth Services
Whether you’re a saver or simply a more conservative investor, “it’s an amazing time to set money aside,” he said. “Investors are finally getting paid to wait.”
Increase bond allocations before interest rate cuts
As the Federal Reserve weighs an end to its rate-hiking cycle, some advisors are adjusting their clients’ bond allocations.
With expectations of future interest rate cuts, Atlanta-based CFP Ted Jenkin, founder of oXYGen Financial, has started shifting more money into bonds.
Typically, market interest rates and bond values move in opposite directions. That means bond values will rise in 2024 if the Fed cuts interest rates.
With possible interest cuts on the horizon, bonds are poised for a stronger performance, according to Jenkin, who is also a member of CNBC’s FA Council.
“We believe them to be in favor for 2024,” he said.
Consider extending bond duration
When building a bond portfolio, advisors also consider so-called duration, which measures a bond’s sensitivity to interest rate changes. Expressed in years, duration factors in the coupon, time to maturity and yield paid through the term.
Douglas Boneparth, a CFP and president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York, said his team shortened bond duration before the Fed signaled plans to raise interest rates.
However, with future rate cuts expected, they’ve shifted duration back to intermediate-term allocations, said Boneparth, a member of CNBC’s FA Council.
Jenkin also has started “chipping back in the other direction” with bond duration. “If there’s any cut in interest rates by the Fed next year, those long-term bonds should be even more favored in terms of their overall rate of return,” he said.
