Starmer prepares a pivotal speech and US Republicans seek a Speaker

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Leadership is a dominant theme of the FT news diary, whether you are Sir Keir Starmer trying to prove you’re a prime minister in waiting, a US House Republican in need of a Speaker or the head of a Wall Street bank seeking to navigate a difficult economic environment for lenders.

Starmer’s hopes of success at the next UK general election, likely at some point in the next 12 months, were buoyed by last week’s comprehensive victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. However he now needs to prove to his party and the country that he deserves to be prime minister in his speech to the Labour conference in Liverpool on Tuesday. But as our chief political commentator Robert Shrimsley notes, nothing is certain.

Talking of elections, Poles will go to the polls on October 15 after what has been a bitterly fought campaign by all sides. Read the full story here.

The main economic data points this week are the inflation figures from the US and China, whose stock markets also reopen after the Golden Week holiday. Analysts expect the US to record a 0.3 percentage point uptick in both the headline and core monthly readings to 3.6 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively, and China’s consumer price index figure to rise fractionally to 0.2 per cent year on year. The UK has monthly gross domestic product figures, plus retail sales figures and more house price data.

The IMF and World Bank annual meetings, which start on Monday in Marrakech, will produce a run of potentially interesting speeches from central bankers. A key theme for delegates will be the challenge of increasing global debt levels, particularly with regard to financing the transition to green energy sources.

The main event for the earnings calendar will be the start of the US banks reports on Friday. The mood music is not good. As Unhedged writer Rob Armstrong noted in his excellent newsletter last week, expectations for this sector appear to be low and falling.

Thank you for the comments and suggestions about this newsletter. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are receiving this in your inbox, hit reply.

One more thing . . . 

In these disrupted times, we all need a bit of innocent goodness, so it is worth noting that Friday is the 65th anniversary of Michael Bond’s original tale of refugee redemption in furry form, A Bear Called Paddington, being published. And what better way to mark this date than an alternative marmalade recipe, as revealed in this archive FT Food & Drink article.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Former BBC director-general and chief executive of The New York Times Company Sir Mark Thompson becomes chair and CEO of CNN Worldwide

• Germany: monthly industrial production figures

Tuesday

• Shoe brand Birkenstock is expected to announce final initial public offering pricing before shares commence trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday

• Japan: August trade balance figures

• UK: British Retail Consortium-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor. Also, Kantar grocery market share figures and price inflation

• Results: LVMH Q3 revenue, PepsiCo Q3, Reach Q3 trading update, Robert Walters Q3 trading update, YouGov FY

Wednesday

• Germany: September consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Russia: September CPI inflation rate data

• US: publication of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s last meeting

• Results: Bang & Olufsen Q1, Marston’s FY, PageGroup Q3 trading update, Qinetiq Q2 trading update, Tata Consultancy Services Q2

Thursday

• Opec and International Energy Agency October oil market reports

• EU: European Central Bank publishes minutes of last rate-setting meeting

• UK: September GDP estimate. Also, Rics House Price Balance

• US: September CPI inflation rate data

• Results: Delta Air Lines Q3, Domino’s Pizza Q3, easyJet FY trading update, Fast Retailing FY, Hays Q1 trading update, N Brown H1, Südzucker Q2, Walgreens Boots Alliance Q4, Wise Q2 trading update

Friday

• China: September CPI and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data. Also, September trade balance figures

• France: September CPI and HICP inflation rate data

• US: University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

• Results: Ashmore Q1, BlackRock Q3, Citigroup Q3, JPMorgan Chase Q3, PNC Financial Services Q3, TomTom Q3, UnitedHealth Q3, Wells Fargo Q3

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

Tuesday

• Liberia: general election

• UK: Supreme Court to decide whether the government’s policy on migrant deportation to Rwanda is lawful following claims brought by asylum seekers who travelled to the UK in small boats

• UK: opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is expected to address his party’s conference in Liverpool

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

• Ecuador: presidential election run-off vote between Luisa González and entrepreneur Daniel Noboa

• Poland: parliamentary elections plus a multipurpose referendum

• UK: Scottish National party conference begins in Aberdeen