Iowa kicks off Republican presidential nomination process

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

The big news will be the start of the US primaries, with Republican party members in Iowa casting the first ballots to choose their candidate for the 2024 presidential election.

The only real question is whether former White House incumbent Donald Trump can win by a landslide on Monday given his commanding lead in the polls. His rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis will be vying for second place and the chance to lay claim to being the sole alternative to Trump heading into the New Hampshire primary, which will be held on January 23.

After the Iowa caucus, it is back to court. Trump will this week be the subject of a civil defamation case being heard in Manhattan. However, this and other charges levelled against the former president have only increased his standing in the polls.

In Europe, business and political leaders from around the globe are gathering for the World Economic Forum, which runs throughout the week in the Swiss resort town of Davos. The attendees are a mixed bunch: Argentina’s President Javier Milei, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (one of several central bankers on the podium) and US secretary of state Antony Blinken, to name but three. The Financial Times will be there too, broadcasting online with the Daily Davos Show.

The big 2024 economic talking points — inflation and growth — will be news items again this week. Wednesday’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures from China are forecast to come in at 1 per cent for the quarter and 5.2 per cent year on year, compared with 1.3 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively in the third quarter.

The outlook for UK inflation has improved recently, thanks in part to falling gas prices. Clarification will come when the latest consumer price index and producer price index figures are released on Wednesday.

The US markets take a break on Monday for Martin Luther King Day, but then we’re back into the thick of earnings season with the tail-end of the big US bank reports and a clutch of results from non-financial businesses. One theme is online food delivery with figures from Ocado, Just Eat Takeaway and Deliveroo.

One more thing . . . 

The long-running Post Office IT scandal has gripped British media and political attention this month after the national broadcaster ITV aired its powerful drama on the subject. On Tuesday, MPs on the Business and Trade committee will grill Nick Read, Post Office chief executive, and Paul Patterson, chief executive for Europe at Fujitsu, the company that developed the Horizon computer system at the heart of the story.

Justice and truth have been a long time coming here. One of my first jobs in journalism was at Computing magazine, where I covered the awarding of the £1bn-plus Horizon contract, announced at the 1995 Conservative party conference in Blackpool. The emphasis then was on the need to digitise paper-based operations, and concerns focused on the cost — at the time a record sum for a UK public sector IT contract. The subsequent wrongful prosecution of sub-postmasters when the software was at fault showed another much more consequential risk: the appalling result of unchecked hubris over a technology’s potential. It is a danger that sadly continues with each new innovation in this digital age.

Government ministers from all the big political parties failed to act on complaints about failures in the Horizon software. More than 700 sub-postmasters were prosecuted between 2000 and 2014; only 93 convictions have been overturned. Read the FT’s comprehensive coverage of this (still unfolding) scandal by clicking here.

What are you awaiting in January? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• UK: Rightmove January House Price Index

• US: Martin Luther King Day. Financial markets closed

• Results: Ashmore Group Q2 assets under management statement, PageGroup Q4 trading update, Rio Tinto Q4 operations review (late UK time)

Tuesday

• Competition Appeal Tribunal hearing with credit card firm Mastercard in the £14bn class action claim brought by lawyer Walter Merricks on behalf of 46.2mn British consumers who made purchases with the company’s credit cards between 1992 and 2008

• A general meeting will be held in London for Hotel Chocolat shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Mars. If approved, the deal is expected to become effective on January 25, subject to customary closing conditions

• A French court gives its verdict on cement maker Lafarge’s appeal against its indictment regarding subsidiary Lafarge Cement Syria. The group evacuated its foreign employees at the start of the war in 2012, but maintained its activities until September 2014, and faces charges for endangering its Syrian employees

• Germany: January Zew economic sentiment survey. Also, December consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: January employment data and December insolvency figures

• Results: Cairn Homes trading update, Experian Q3 trading update, Goldman Sachs Q4, HDFC Bank Q3, Morgan Stanley Q4, Ocado Retail Q4 trading statement, PNC Financial Services Q4, Qinetiq Q3 trading update, Wise Q3 trading update

Wednesday

• Opec January Oil Market Report

• China: Q4 GDP figures

• EU: December HICP inflation rate data

• UK: December CPI, producer price index (PPI) and Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) inflation rate data. Also, November UK House Price Index

• US: Federal Reserve Beige Book and December retail sales figures

• Results: 888 Holdings trading update, Alcoa Q4, Brooks Macdonald Q2 funds under management, Charles Schwab Q4 and winter business update, Citizens Financial Group Q4, Diploma trading statement and AGM, Galliford Try trading update, Just Eat Takeaway Q4 trading update, Liontrust Asset Management Q3 trading statement, Prologis Q4, Rathbones Q4 trading update, Safestore FY, US Bancorp Q4

Thursday

• IEA Oil Market Report

• EU: European Central Bank publishes the minutes of its latest rate-setting meeting

• UK: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Residential Market Survey

• US: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index plus December housing starts data

• Results: AJ Bell Q1 trading update, Bakkavor trading update, BHP Group HY operational review (AM Melbourne time), Birkenstock Q4, Brown (N) Q3 trading statement, Currys peak trading quarter update, Elementis trading update, Flutter Entertainment Q4 trading statement, HB Fuller Q4, JB Hunt Transport Services Q4, Kier Group trading update, M&T Bank Corp Q4, Northern Trust Q4, Sage Group Q1 trading update, Truist Financial Q4, TSMC Q4, The Works HY

Friday

• Germany: December PPI inflation rate data

• Japan: December CPI inflation rate data (AM local time)

• UK: December retail sales figures plus GfK Consumer Confidence survey

• US: University of Michigan January consumer sentiment survey

• Results: Burberry Q3 trading update, Comerica Q4, Deliveroo Q4 trading update, DFS Furniture HY post-close trading statement, Dunelm Q2 trading update, Huntington Bancshares Q4, Petershill Partners Q4 assets under management update, PPG Industries Q4, Schlumberger Q4, State Street Q4, The Travelers Companies Q4

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Switzerland: the World Economic Forum, the annual gathering of political and business leaders, opens in the Alpine resort village of Davos

• US: Primary voting begins with the first caucus of Republicans in Iowa state, voting to nominate their candidate for the White House in 2024. Former president Donald Trump is far ahead of his party rivals among Republican voters, as evidenced in the FT-Michigan Ross survey this month. New Hampshire Republicans vote next week

Tuesday

• Kenya: the IMF’s executive board meets to approve a deal with Kenya unveiled last November that will grant it $938mn in new funds

• UK: MPs to quiz government and other stakeholders on what more can be done to deliver timely compensation for victims of the Post Office IT scandal, which has been labelled the worst miscarriage of justice in British history

• US: civil defamation jury trial begins in Manhattan federal court against Trump over his 2019 denial of journalist E Jean Carroll’s claim that he raped her

Wednesday

• Belgium: Nato military chiefs of defence meeting opens at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels

• Sierra Leone: former president Ernest Bai Koroma is due to appear in court, charged with four offences including treason over a foiled coup in November

Thursday

• UK: deadline for restoring power-sharing in Northern Ireland, following an 11-month extension by the UK government put in place in February 2023. This target date has already been pushed back and could be again

Friday

• Korea: 2024 Winter Youth Olympic Games begin in Gangwon Province, South Korea, the first edition of the international tournament held outside Europe

• US: thousands of anti-abortion demonstrators are set to march on Washington for the second time since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade

Saturday

• The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency is due to attempt a lunar landing of its Smart Lander for Investigating Moon spacecraft, hoping to become the world’s fifth country to land on the moon after India’s success of the Chandrayaan-3 mission last August

Sunday