FirstFT: Drop in global house price bottoms out as economists predict turning point

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Good morning. The widespread drop in global house prices that hit advanced economies has largely bottomed out, according to an FT analysis of OECD data, leading economists to predict that the deepest property downturn in a decade has hit a turning point.

Across the 37 industrialised OECD countries, nominal house prices grew 2.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2023 compared with the previous three months, up from near stagnation at the start of last year.

Housing prices took a hit in late 2022 after central banks in most economies raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades to curb inflation. In OECD countries, house prices grew by just 0.6 per cent quarter on quarter at the end of 2022, the lowest nominal rate since 2012.

But house prices are now increasing or stabilising in most advanced nations, while other countries are seeing falls at a slower rate.

That includes Australia and New Zealand, where house prices are growing again, national data shows. In Korea they have stabilised after hitting a trough in mid-2023.

Here’s how prices rebounded and what economists expect lies ahead.

And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Sweden’s Nato bid: Hungary’s National Assembly is expected to vote to ratify Sweden’s membership in the alliance.

• Global trade: The WTO Ministerial Conference begins in Abu Dhabi, running until Thursday.

• Monetary policy: Israel makes its interest rate announcement.

Five more top stories

1. Malaysia’s prime minister has condemned a rising tide of “China-phobia” in the west, as south-east Asian countries navigate the challenges and benefits of tensions between Washington and Beijing. In an interview with the FT, Anwar Ibrahim questioned why Malaysia would “pick a quarrel” with China, its largest trading partner, in response to US criticisms of his country’s ties with Beijing.

• More south-east Asia news: Indonesia’s low-cost nickel suppliers will wipe out rivals in the next few years, cementing the country as the world’s dominant producer of the metal vital to electric car batteries, the head of French miner Eramet has warned.

2. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told the US that Ukraine needs the $60bn aid currently stuck in a congressional stand-off within a month. Zelenskyy said the long-awaited package was about military not financial support and that he was unsure Ukraine would be able to find the types and amounts of weapons it needed if the funding did not materialise.

• Russia news: Russian officials have returned Alexei Navalny’s body to his mother after what the late opposition leader’s team described as a week of stalling, obfuscation and threats to let it rot.

3. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said yesterday he hoped a “firm and final agreement” on a temporary Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages could be reached “in the coming days”, after progress in negotiations at the weekend. Sullivan’s comments on CNN came as Israeli newspapers reported that the country’s war cabinet had approved a rough outline of a deal. Here’s the latest on the talks.

4. Qatar plans to further increase its liquefied natural gas production capacity following the discovery of vast new gas reserves, as it looks to tap surging demand from China and other Asian nations. The Gulf state is betting that strong demand for the fuel will continue, with Asian economies switching from coal as part of efforts to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Here’s how Asia fits into Qatar’s expansion plans.

5. A Chinese company operating from a compound in Myanmar has swindled more than $100mn from victims in less than two years, according to analysis by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis and US anti-slavery group International Justice Mission. Analysts said digital coins issued by Tether, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency platforms, were used in so-called “pig butchering” scams in which false romantic relationships are engineered in order to gain a victim’s trust.

News in-depth

Donald Trump tightened his grip on the Republican presidential nomination this weekend with a crushing 20-point victory over Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina. However, the margin of Trump’s victory was smaller than opinion polls and many pundits had predicted, giving credence to Haley’s argument that the former president might struggle to win in a general election in November.

Follow the latest twists and turns of the 2024 presidential campaign in the FT’s new US Election Countdown newsletter. Sign up here.

We’re also reading . . .

• China’s economic malaise: The big stimulus bazookas of the past are no longer in Beijing’s preferred playbook, writes James Kynge.

• Japan’s stock market: A psychological hurdle has been crossed after the Nikkei 225 index finally surpassed its bubble-era peak, writes Leo Lewis. But will retail investors back the breakthrough?

• Overblown job titles: Some headhunting firms say job title inflation has grown so much since the pandemic that it outstripped the actual inflation that has rippled across the world, writes Pilita Clark.

Chart of the day

Microsoft, Google and Meta have substantially increased their use of water to cool down data centres that power artificial intelligence products, sparking concerns over the environmental impact of the generative AI boom. 

Take a break from the news

. . . and read Fuchsia Dunlop’s fascinating FT Magazine piece on China’s “strange stone banquets”. Dunlop, a food writer who specialises in Chinese cuisine, traces China’s historical affection for stones and how rocks shaped like meat, fish and poultry found a place at the table.